The Establishment Is Stupid

I saw this quote in an article which actually admitted that Biden misunderstood Putin. Before you think I'm praising the author though, the author had no idea how to fix the problem because, you know, Putin's just not normal. And that's the problem with establishment thinking: "everyone thinks like we do or they're mental and you can't predict mental." The reality is establishment thinking is aberrational. Let me demonstrate.

Here's the quote:

[Putin] also proved resistant to many traditional tools of diplomacy and deterrence.

Biden’s appeals to Putin’s geopolitical ego didn’t work. Neither did threats of sanctions, words of condemnation, emotional appeals on human rights grounds, deployments of U.S. troops to NATO countries and weapons to Ukraine, or the relatively united front put forth by the United States and its allies. Even an unusual tactic employed by the Biden administration — publicizing significant amounts of intelligence about Putin’s plans — didn’t stop the dictator.

And actions that might have — maybe — changed Putin’s calculus, such as deploying U.S. troops to Ukraine itself, were not ones Biden would consider.

For Biden and his team, it is a deeply frustrating moment. Their strategy toward Russia has largely failed, despite their effort to adjust it over time to account for Putin’s stubborn moves.

Got it? We tried everything except the one which seems risky and uncertain to work -- actual threat of force -- and none of it worked. Shocking! Who could possibly have seen this coming? And now poor Mr. Biden is in a bad spot because of this inexplicable madman!!!

Does this make any sense though? Consider each "tool":

(1) Biden’s appeals to Putin’s geopolitical ego didn’t work. This is stupid. Even the most vain, need-the-public-to-love-me-to-validate-my-life people (usually actors) put economics and power over vanity. Why? Because as a species we have wants and needs and they can only be achieved through gathering wealth and power. What person in their right mind would sacrifice their ability to control or earn in favor of a fleeting bit of public adulation? It doesn't happen. This type of "tool" would never work even on an average manager of a McDonalds, and it definitely doesn't work on billionaires, so why should Putin fall for it?

(2) Neither did threats of sanctions. Sanctions have never stopped anyone, relying on those is silly. Why? Well, the problem is the West never does sanctions that really hurt. Even now, with Biden promising to swing as hard as his soft little stick can hit, he didn't hit Putin personally, didn't hit Russia's oil and gas sector at all, and would never touch things like food or medicine or the things that make people panic when they disappear. In other words, the way the West sanctions by definition excludes the things that make sanctions painful and effective.

(3) words of condemnation Same as geopolitical ego. Words are a harmless sanction unless they are tied to a specific threat, and then it's the threat that works, not the words. Sticks and stones, yes. Words, no.

(4) emotional appeals on human rights grounds We don't even agree what human rights are or how far they extend. What's more appeals to human rights are just the modern version of appeals to morality. Morality is an internal barrier. If someone has shown they don't have that barrier, then appealing to them not to cross that barrier is as stupid as expecting pot heads to stop doing pot after telling them "it's wrong." Dave's not here, man.

(5) deployments of U.S. troops to NATO countries Ooooooh scary. That would be troops you said won't be used in this conflict. How exactly is that a threat?

(6) and weapons to Ukraine This is the only one that had the potential to matter. This one changes the calculus because it means the cost of invasion goes up. The problem is that Putin has shown he's willing to bear that cost. He started bloody wars in Chechnya and Georgia... and Syria without a care. What's more, he's sure his military can handle Ukraine. And he has some plan we don't understand yet to gain control at what he considers an acceptable cost. Also, like most dictators, Putin does not care about his soldiers or public opinion. So while this can work, it wasn't enough here.

(7) or the relatively united front put forth by the United States and its allies. Twice zero is still zero. A hundred zeroes is still zero. None of the above offered the slightest reason for Putin to stop, so everyone agreeing to do them also means nothing.

(8) Even an unusual tactic employed by the Biden administration — publicizing significant amounts of intelligence about Putin’s plans — didn’t stop the dictator. Again, so what? Biden can tell the world everything, but if no one is willing to step in, then it doesn't really matter does it?

What's interesting here to me is that, of this list, only one even had the chance to affect things. Yet, our establishment and the West generally seem to think they are meaningful deterrents. It's clear that they have no understanding of the human mind outside of their little bubble world. Add the fact that they don't seem to understand that Putin is playing with a different definition of right and wrong, and it's shocking that anyone would think any of this even might have worked. This is the same logic the establishment uses to fail to solve bullying. I'm seeing a trend.

Thoughts?

Ukraine

My thoughts.

First, I want no part of a war. Russia has nuclear missiles and we don't want a war between countries with nuclear weapons. There is just too high of a chance of mistake.

Second, we need to stop Putin. You can't have a thug who is willing to start wars in the face of worldwide opposition running around freely. A creature like him has no limits.

How do we stop Putin? The only weapon we have is sanctions. But we need real sanctions, not crap like we usually do. (1) Ban travel for every senior Russian official. (2) Invalidate the Russian passport. (3) Issue worldwide arrest warrants for Putin and his top military brass. (4) Seize their bank accounts throughout the world. (4) Remove Russia from the money exchange system. (5) Cut the internet to Russia. (6) Ban all exports/imports with Russia.

Third, this is the fault of...

(1) Biden for being weak. He spoke in extra harsh terms the last couple weeks which suggest he's all talk and no action and then he kept making winking asides ensuring the world he would not do anything really. That's a green light to a guy like Putin. So much for a "small incursion."

(2) Conservatives for flirting with Putin. Trump included. We used to know better than to encourage monsters.

(3) The Democrats for treating Russia as a political game rather than treating it like a genuine threat. You proved yourselves to be a joke.

(4) Western liberals for still not understanding that the threat of stern letters only tells bullies like Putin that you won't do anything. If I may quote Biden and then respond: "The World will hold Russia responsible." Really? With harsh language?

(5) The corporate world for helping Russia modernize without asking whether they should have helped this thug-ocracy. The tech firms in particular are to blame here.

My best to the people of Ukraine.

There are Times The World Seems Upside Down

It's been a surreal couple of weeks in the world of human stupidity.

Before I get into some of the recent crazy, check out this article: LINK. This is an article about some of the more "crazy" critics of Trump. Ostensibly, this is a lighthearted look back at the clownshow that attacked Trump repeatedly, and what happened to them after. This is people like Tom Arnold and Michael Avenatti. The article makes a couple mentions of some respectable "journalists" not exactly falling for them, but wanting to see if what they had was real (good journalistic instincts... beats chest proudly) and it mentions that some were indeed fooled... temporarily... in minor ways (tut tut), but it assures us this was always a sideshow (oh my ha ha... we always knew they were fools). What the article fails to see, after all self-awareness is hard, is just how much the left -- journalists, news organizations, bloggers, politicians, and average dingdongs -- completely bought into all of this. None of them saw the signs of crazy at the time. They KNEW this was all true and would finally bring down Orange Man! This was the relentless press of journalist after journalist for the four years of Trump and even continues today. Indeed, as the Ukraine is sliced up like a turkey, as inflation crushes poor and working class families, as Canada goes Gestapo, and as our big cities sink into a dystopia of murder, rape, drugs and shoplifting, this same journalistic left obsesses over anything they think can lead to Trump being jailed. Read this article and recall how crazy obsessed the left was and how they believed everything about Trump, and see what happened to their false messiahs.

In other news...

● Some actress whose name I won't bother to learn is complaining that people didn't respect her after she posed nude. Shocking. When I posed nude, offers to run major corporations just poured right in. It must be sexism.

● It turns out Hugh Hefner was quite the monster. Drug pusher, rapist, animal molester, and not equal opportunity employer. So someone in the business of selling sex isn't as reputable as leftists thought when he was their hero for attacking societies boundaries? I never would have guessed. At least Larry Flynt was upstanding... what? Too soon?

● AOC tells us that the massive spike in crime in New York City after instituting woke policies is a myth. I'm sure the 6 people stabbed this weekend on the subway will be relieved to hear what happened to them never happened. I wonder if she knows she's lying or if she's really as stupid as she seems?

● Hillary apparently hacked the White House. If true, that makes Watergate nothing by comparison. That's genuine espionage. Yet, every major leftist news organization ignored it. I wonder if liberals understand that they are being lied to by their masters and are only being told what they want them to know? How does that feel to put your faith in someone who so openly treats you with contempt and condescension?

● Disney is remaking Snow White and the Seven Dwarves, continuing its raping of its old properties. The kicker is, it's decided not to use any little people for fear of perpetuating bad stereotypes. Uh, the Dwarves aren't little people. They're dwarves, like in the "Lord of the Rings," they're mythical people. This is as stupid as banning horses from Westerns for fear of offending Bronies. Apparently, Willy Wonka won't use little people for Umpalumpas either for the same reason. Give me a break! This is fake wokery... imagined outrage. "That might upset people who see Klingons as metaphors for themselves!" What's really dumb about this is that when liberals decide to protect someone, they make them disappear. To protect Native Americans from imagined insults, they demand they be removed from team names, product names, and geographic points. To protect blacks from bad publicity, they've been removed from brand names liberals don't like and film roles as villains or criminals. Now they want to protect little people by expunging them from films. Don't worry children, in a generation or so no one will know you exist! You can thank us later.

● Finally, women's soccer settled their unfair pay dispute for $24 million and woke sportswriters are celebrating. This bugs me on so many levels. For starters, it's bullshit. They were offered a choice of two contracts, just like the boys, and they chose the one which paid more per game than the men got but less overall, i.e. they chose the less risky contract. It paid them less but had better guarantees. Now they are screaming about it. That's your own damn fault, girls. Are you a big girl, Megan or do we need to protect you from your own decisions? Apparently, you need sheltering. Secondly, the idea they are entitled to equal amounts is ridiculous. Women's sports bring in 10% of the eyes of men's sports. Equal pay for equal results... 10% for 10% results. In fact, try making it any real world job where 10% success gets you fired. Third, I think it's bizarre that this is a situation of the woke suing the woke over something they both claim to agree upon. That strikes me as a scam. Lastly, if we assume there is some validity to this -- a stretch indeed -- then how is a $24 million settlement in any way a victory? There are 23 women on the team now. They're fighting over a decade of pay. So let's assume turnover means there have been 50 women on the team? Maybe double that? So the pay out is only $500,000 per player... or far less. In fact, takeout legal fees and you're looking at a maximum of $250,000 with a likely payout in the $100,000 range for ten years. That means you got a yearly payout of... uh... aim high, girls. Nice "victory."

Biden's Giving Me Gas

Despite the media going all out to bury Biden's scandals, make his screw-ups sound like brilliance, and spin bad news into Trumpian schemes or unavoidable fate, Biden's popularity continues to crash. Almost every week the media declares some "reset" which will finally turn things around with the public, yet the trend continues. Right now, Biden's about as popular as herpes. But never fear, Team Biden has a plan to win your love: he's going to buy it by eliminating the federal gas tax! Uh... yay?

This is your fault, by the way. The Democrats try to pander to you, but you just won't give them your love. They gave you free money during the pandemic (even as they took your freedoms, your jobs, and your dignity) but you won't credit them for it. They gave you money for your kids, but you never even sent a thank you card. They stopped landlords from kicking out the lazy and crooked, but that didn't endear you to them in the least. When landlords freaked (since many are not corporations but are hardworking people using homes as investments) they sent those same lazy crooks money to give to you landlords with nary a thank you... no doubt you got every penny. They sparked inflation to punish the rich, but all you do now is complain how expensive poor people things are... like milk and eggs and gas. They made sure covid costs were free, except where they weren't. They gave billions of dollars in welfare to covid-struck small businesses like Burger King and Hollywood, and yet all you did was complain. You are impossible to please!

But now, now they know how to win your hearts: suspend the gas tax.

But will it work?

Let's think about this. This one maintains the roads, which are crap around here, so it's kind of important that this money actually gets collected and spent. So I don't mind paying it. But hey, who needs roads if we get relief right? How much relief? Wellllllll..... it costs $0.18 a gallon. So gas will go from $3.55 today to $3.37. Huh. I am oddly underwhelmed. If I buy 15 gallons a week, that works out to $2.70 a week. Hmm. What do you think? If I came to you and said, "I'm going to give you $2.70 a week for the rest of the year!" are you going to jump up and down and ask to do my bidding? Or are you going to look at me like this is some kind of joke? Wanna bet most people get pissed and tell me to shove my offer? And yet, Biden thinks this will give people comfort. Can you say, out of touch?

Maybe if you hadn't shut down pipelines to start your administration, that would have helped. Not taking $2.70 from me every week... that's not helping.

Oh sure, it will be great for big companies with massive fleets, but no one else is going to even notice. Do they really think this will win them votes?

Hilariously, they are also scratching their heads wondering why people aren't giving them credit for paying out money each month as the child tax credit. Could it be that the amount wasn't high enough? Or was it this: this wasn't new money, it was money you get on your taxes each year. So by paying it each month, people got the money early, but they didn't really get anything they didn't already feel entitled to. Even worse, now that people are paying their taxes, a huge number are shocked to learn that they won't be getting that deduction because they already got it. Terrible strategy. Did the Democrats not understand this?

Of course, then there's the student loan forgiveness plan. The left campaigned on eliminating student loans. Biden, ever the voice of responsibility and dementia, said he could only agree to $10,000. So what has he done in office? He's wiped out student loan debts for a handful of people who were defrauded and made it easier for some government workers to discharge their debts after a lifetime of service. This has helped around 550,000 people out of the 47 million with student loans. Damn, Mr. Biden! You. Are. On. Fire. I can't imagine why this hasn't helped him.

It's no wonder they want to give out free crack pipes, because you have to be on crack to think this helps you.

I swear the Democrats didn't used to be so terrible at handouts.

How To Understand Covid Like A Liberal

Let me help you get this straight. This is what liberals think today (statement does not apply to tomorrow).

It is true that... Republicans are evil and stupid and want brown people to die because they oppose safety measures against Covid. They killed millions of Americans in red states like New York and California and Michigan with their policies. Florida is a nightmare of slightly below average Covid numbers, showing they handled this worse than anyone in the country... for shame. We should round them up and kill them all because they are harming our democracy.

It is true that... if you aren't vaccinated, we need to ban you from jobs, take your children away in divorces, ridicule you if you die, and if you spread your lies, whether they are true or not, remove you from any platform from which you operate.

It is true that... Blue State governors are brave for understanding that the public is DONE WITH COVID. Indeed, they are heroes for eliminating safety restrictions. It's about time! We need to crush all who stand in the way of freedom.

It is true that... Biden is a hero for opposing anyone who wants to reduce protections against Covid. We need to crush all who stand in the way of safety.

It is true that... in Canada, they allow all forms of freedom of speech, no matter how oppressive. Just like we allowed the good members of AntifaBLM to occupy sections of cities in places like Seattle and Portland where they definitely did not shoot young black men and cover it up, terrorize citizens, burn down buildings and generally destroy local economies. That was the Proud Boys. You just can't interfere with freedom of speech and the right to protest regardless of the cost to society!

It is true that... in Canada, those truckers peacefully blocking some streets and a bridge to Detroit are hurting jobs and it's heroic to call in the military to end their terroristic reign. We need to crush all who stand in the way of jobs.

It is true that... even if those truckers didn't waive swastikas as Premier Turdo says, they wanted to. You just know it. We need to shut them up in the name of freedom.

Simple, right?

And before anyone misunderstands, I'm not an anti-vaxer. I just don't think society should be trying to destroy people just because they disagree with us. But I'm kind of alone in that, apparently.

Random Thoughts

Howdy everyone! Busy week, so I haven't had a chance to write anything. I do have some thoughts though.

● On the Joe Rogan issue, I saw something that should raise eyebrows, but the world no longer thinks. It's along the lines of Joy Behar saying she didn't want Joe Rogan canceled, she just wants people to complain about him to Spotify... to get him cancelled. Note that her dishonest formulation lets her have it both ways in her head: she's not a Nazi, she just wants people to do Nazi things at her command.

Now we have India Arie, one of the handful of artists who has tried to remove her work from Spotify to censor Joe Rogan. Arie is the one who dug through Rogan's prior tapes to find that he had used the "N" word in the past. What does this have to do with vaccine misinformation? Nothing, actually. This is personality assassination. This is how the woke work. Once you are an enemy of the people, they will research all your crimes to justify making you a nonperson. That's just par for the course though, on the left. What bothered me was this quote from her afterward: "I don't think Joe Rogan is racist."

Uh...

So why are you hanging on his use of the "N" word in the past and trying to kill him for it? Think about that. She's either saying that she doesn't think he's actually guilty of what she accused him of, but let's get him anyways... or she's saying that even if you are a good person, the use of the "N" word at some point in the past means you should be forever second class... destroyable. Both positions are truly evil. And keep in mind, these are the same people who want to forgive criminals everything in the name of justice. Maybe Joe should have killed someone instead?

● Inflation is a disaster and growing. The fact they say it's 7% means its actually much worse. The government lies about inflation to keep its budget under control because trillions of dollars (salaries and pensions) are indexed to inflation. Biden still doesn't seem to get how this is killing poor and middle class families. His press secretary even dismissed inflation as a rich concern a few months back (ridiculous) and Biden claims it's "transitory."

Interestingly, Biden's newest tactic in interviews, as demonstrated by his attack on leftist Lestor Holt who asked what transitory means, is to attack the questioner. When Trump did that, the left squealed. Now they purr.

● The Olympics are being killed in the ratings. Lowest ratings ever, by far. The (leftist) sports media is blaming this on China and suddenly learning that the Chinese oppress a Muslim minority -- something they condescendingly dismissed when the issue was raised against the NBA's hypocrisy. According to truth-fluid writers at Yahoo, the public knows this and is outraged at China. Plus, the covid restrictions are so horrible the public has just given up. Boo hoo.

The reality, I suspect, is that the Olympics have become (1) woke and (2) a festival of spoiled rich people complaining about their lack of luxury while blasting average Americans as ignorant racists. I would say the Olympics lost the public, just as the Hollywood masterbatthon of award shows lost the public, just as the leftist-pimping NBA lost the public last year, just at the woke media lost the public. The left can keep coming up with excuses, but the common element for the public walking away is wokeness and elitism. Uyghurs my ass. The public doesn't even know who they are.

I actually think a lot of our issues lately are not left versus right, but elite versus peons. I'll try to gather my thoughts on that and present them soon.

● As an aside, on elitism versus the unwashed, Elon Musk made an interesting point. Biden's infrastructure plans include 500,000 charging stations for electric cars even though only a tiny percentage (6% or something like that) of people have electric cars, and they are generally owned by the rich or corporate fleets. Why are we spending tax dollars to support those people? To support his point, Musk pointed out that Tesla has built 200,000 charging stations without federal cash. This joins a disturbing trend of using massive amounts of taxpayer cash to pay for the hobbies and self-righteousnesses of the rich and powerful.

● This Ukraine thing is making my head spin. Biden says war is coming. In fact, almost every day, there is some leaked intelligence telling us how the Russians are about to invade. Russia says it won't invade. I don't trust Russia, but ok. France and Germany want to cut a deal. They say Russia won't invade either. But of course, they are chickens. But then... Ukraine says Russia won't invade. Huh? They're the target, why would they say that? Ukraine says we are causing problems and need to tone down the rhetoric. //eyes cross I'm not a Putin person. He's a loser and a tyrant. But what is going on here? Why does it seem Biden is pushing for a war? What is his game?

Racism gets (another) upgrade

Today we have an article from tryanmax. Thanks for contributing!

by tryanmax

While you weren’t looking, the ADL has been quietly changing the definition of racism. So, while you may not have been racist before, you could be now. How can you be sure to stay always up-to-date on the latest racism? Don’t worry, Commentarama can help.

A new racism just dropped and you’re going to want to pick it up. But stay tuned! The ADL is giving signs that further revisions are in the works. First, some background on why it’s time to Redefine Racism… again.

Lots of people were caught unawares over the last update, so don’t feel bad if you missed it. A couple of years ago, the ADL definition of racism was the always popular but, let’s face it, kind of old "belief that a particular race is superior or inferior to another."

It was during the crazy hectic Summer of Floyd that the ADL realized it was time for a new, sexy, woke upgrade. The new definition of racism at that time was "the marginalization and/or oppression of people of color based on a socially constructed racial hierarchy that privileges white people.” Pretty woke, right?

Unfortunately, so much was going on in 2020 that ADL’s hot new update hardly got noticed. Not until a few weeks ago, when some right-wing trolls got ahold of it and started passing it around for the LULZ, as the kids say.

In a completely unrelated event, host of The View, Whoopi Goldberg recently said some things about race and the Holocaust that were confusing and unclear. The ADL does not condone clumsy remarks about race and the Holocaust. However, the next day, the CEO of the ADL proclaimed that Whoopi should not be cancelled for her remarks. The day after—again, totally unrelated—the ADL CEO also took the privilege of announcing their latest new definition of racism.

The new definition states that “Racism occurs when individuals or institutions show more favorable evaluation or treatment of an individual or group based on race or ethnicity.” The new definition comes with a citation to Prof. Robert Livingston, so blame him if you don’t like it. (Already, I think the affirmative action people are going to have something to say.) Also, this is only an “interim definition,” so keep checking back for more updates to come!

While the ADL continues to work diligently to figure out what exactly racism is, maybe someone could launch an app that would send a notification to people’s phones every time there’s an update?

Updated Supreme Thougths

Some interesting developments in the Supreme Court process.

First, Susan Collins of Maine, noted liberal Republican, criticized Biden for saying he would pick a black woman. I find this fascinating because of all the Republicans, Collins is the one I would think would have been cool with the idea. What's more, polls show that 3 in 10 Americans don't like the idea of limiting his choices that way. That's significant because it confirms what I'm seeing about the summer of race baiting coming to a very hard end. This is not Ted Cruz, Sean Hannity and 4/10 angry white conservatives critizing Biden, this is basically average Americans. Black Lives Matter's support has dried up with the public.

This is also bad news for Biden who just keeps sinking.

Secondly, the Republicans are playing this right in my opinion. Trump aside, the Republicans in the Senate are being cordial, cooperative and saying they are happy to vote for a black woman. All of that flies in the face of the left's racism push and it has prevented any mainstream headlines accusing them of racism.

Third, beause of the way the Republicans are acting, Biden is being backed into a corner. He can either pick a fight and get a 50-50 controversial nomination needing a VP tie breaker vote, or he can get a genuinely bipartisan nomination. In a rational world, the bipartisan vote makes the most sense. The public likes cooperation and the nominee would get more credibility if they are confirmed in a bipartisan manner.

BUT... Biden may be looking to pick a fight to fire up his base. His disengenuous attack on the Fox News Reporter ("dumb son of a bitch") suggests he thinks it's more important to fire up his base than try to win over the public at large -- Biden called to apologize right after the bizare attack and strangely said, "It's nothing personal," which I read as "this was meant to fire up my base and wasn't really aimed at you personally." So he may try to pick someone the GOP hates as bait to cause a fight.

BUT... there are two problems with that. First, he might have another Manchin problem. The GOP has been pushing a sitting judge from South Carolina. Biden's base is pushing more for non-judges like Law School professors and "civil rights activists," who are usually more screwball-ish than active judges. But Joe Manchin, who Biden needs, said tonight that picking someone who was previously confirmed would speed everything up, i.e. a judge. I read that as: dump these weirdos and pick a sitting judge. There are three on Biden's list, but only two went through the Senate. So I think Manchin just limited Biden's picks to those judges.

AND... a new problem happened tonight - a big one. A Senator from New Mexico had a stroke. He's alive, but may be out some time. While he's out, the Senate is actually 49-50 in favor of the GOP. It's the democratic nightmare scenario they've been worried about, and it kills their agenda even if they win over Sinema and Manchin. Bascially, Biden needs the GOP now if he wants to seat a judge because he can't win at 49-50.

Biden may still try to get a nominee shot down and then try to make a deal, but the danger is that Manchin may have just told Biden how it's going to be and Biden runs the risk of an intra-party feud if he does that. What's more, a chunk of GOP Senators is talking to the Senate Democrats about joining them on this vote - they did not make the offer to Biden, but to the Senate. And the Senate is not going to like Biden lobbing a partisan bomb into the chamber on this.

One more thought. The Democrats are making a mistake trying to rush this. Manchin and the others are talking about speed and the media is wrongly talking about getting her on the bench as quickly as possible. This is actually pointless as she will just be joining the losing side and there is no difference between 6-3 and 6-2. If anything, going 6-2 lets you argue later that a decision never had the full court's consideration and should be reconsidered. Reopening a 6-3 case is more purely political. So why rush it? Maybe that's the wrong question... let's flip it and ask: why delay it?

If she's confirmed in March, she's on the court long before the election and the energy of the issue is gone. If she's still hanging in October, then her nomination becomes a hot button issue. But here's the thing, GOP voters don't care because they know Biden gets someone no matter what, so this doesn't influence their desire to turn out. If anything, this can sow discord in the primaries as challengers squeal about them RINOs who are failing to hold out three more years. On the other hand, the left might turn out to do their best to support Senate Democrats to make sure the GOP can't force a conservative on weak-spined Biden. Or alternatively, they could use a recent victory to advertise the need to keep the Senate for the next nominee. If the victory is in October the issue is fresh and angry. If it's in March, no one remembers. Honestly, I would delay this into the election season and accuse the GOP of obstruction if I were the left.