tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post1390879189650827710..comments2024-01-05T06:18:18.086-05:00Comments on CommentaramaPolitics: How To Run A Modern CampaignAndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comBlogger54125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-80166288669636570092012-11-14T00:16:40.683-05:002012-11-14T00:16:40.683-05:00Tyranmax aqnd Andrew
There may be people that arg...Tyranmax aqnd Andrew<br /><br />There may be people that argue about Abortion or would talk of ending the federal government but I think that if we ever have a 2008 moment with House, filibuster proof Senate and a President that does the right thing and balances the budget the detractors would be very few and the euphoria among the rank and file would be such that those that do would be laughed off.<br /><br />I was not a supporter of Romney until he won the primary. I had real problems with his moderation. Say what you guys want about immigration, abortion etc. it has been my experience that a moderate RINO almost invariably ends up spending money we don't have and worse abandoning party to curry favor with the MSM by compromising with liberals. <br /><br />The one thing I have heard every conservative and libertarian gripe about and gripe about bitterly is the inability to balance the budget or even reduce the spending and keep this in place. This really is no small feat either. The only possible way to balance the budget would be to end bureacratic agencies. Something everyone says is impoossible to achieve.<br /><br />I know so many conservatives that hate our politicians because they feel they are never going to do what is required. And they are right about that. They only support the GOP because the DNC is so awful.<br /><br />This is where the vocal disastisfaction comes from. It is the members of the rank and file that just don't understand why GOP politicians never even seem to fight for reduced spending. They are not stupid they understand not increazsing a budget by the same percentange as last year is still adding to and not cutting the budget. I have heard these complaints all my adult life which dates back to Reagan.<br /><br />The problem is that it is impposible to acheive. It just is. We are not even going to reduce this ridiculous deficit we have now. One Trillion Plus is the new normal. The country may tank but reducing the spending won't happen.<br /><br />Many conservatives don't spend the time you guys do analyzing what is going on day to day. They just know that no one they elect ever does anything about spending. They don't understand why this is. So it is real easy for the talk show hosts to complain when they cut the deals that increase the budget a little to stop dems from ripping things apart.<br /><br />Even McCain Mr. I don't take Earmarks stopped everything to waste money on TARP. Had at the time Levin praised McCain doing this openly he'd had lost his show.<br /><br />Thus I say it is a Catch 22. You need the party faithful to fully back your candidates while the gradually gain more and more power but they won't do this faithfully until you do something that requires a situation where we are at 2008 levels of the DNC. I don't like it but I don't know what to do about it either.Individualisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11005025873042230314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-4516625395456707562012-11-13T19:25:41.826-05:002012-11-13T19:25:41.826-05:00T-Rav, I've read the article and I actually do...T-Rav, I've read the article and I actually don't put much faith in his analysis. If Romney had just lost Ohio, I would agree. But he also lost Colorado, Virginia, and Florida he should have won. Those aren't states where Bain Capital or the auto bailout swayed anything. Those are states where he lost because of the other issues we discussed, particularly Hispanics.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-56444659672441124512012-11-13T19:19:58.052-05:002012-11-13T19:19:58.052-05:00T-Rav, Thanks for the links. I think we lost both...T-Rav, Thanks for the links. I think we lost both because out turnout effort was poor and because our image. In future, we will lose because of our image.<br /><br />And yes, Ohio voters are stupid. I have no doubt about that. But stupid people are easy to lead and that is what we need to learn.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-85393392376191401112012-11-13T18:58:39.075-05:002012-11-13T18:58:39.075-05:00For what it's worth, there's an article he...For what it's worth, there's an article here that absolutely slams ORCA, somewhat along the lines of what I was saying earlier. <a href="http://ace.mu.nu/archives/334783.php#334783" rel="nofollow">LINK</a><br /><br />And also for what it's worth, Joe Trippi (former manager for Howard Deaniac) has a piece today on what the Obama campaign was looking at behind the scenes all this time, and suggests that the problem wasn't GOTV at all but that, yes, Ohio voters really are that stupid. (He wouldn't call it stupid, but I would.) <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/11/12/what-saw-with-karl-rove-on-election-night/" rel="nofollow">LINK</a> <br /><br />The upshot of all this is that, as I think I alluded to in yesterday's (only slightly acrimonious) thread, we're kind of spinning our wheels until we establish whether we lost because our turnout efforts choked at the last minute, or because enough voters were actively turned off by our message. Not that that necessarily helps: if it's the latter, I say f*** them. But at least we'll know where we stand.T-Ravhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10861218035729479354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-65613290100691363442012-11-13T18:26:31.668-05:002012-11-13T18:26:31.668-05:00Joel, I don't know anyone who can confirm or d...Joel, I don't know anyone who can confirm or deny this. I can say though that these types of stories always happen with losing teams, so take everything you hear with a grain of salt.<br /><br />Still, this would tend to support the idea that campaigning is too important to be left to candidates and their amateur teams. McCain had a similar problem.<br /><br />We really need to set up a professional machine to make sure that the lowest level of campaigning always runs smoothly year in and year out and just leave it up to the campaigns to come up with their message and to find volunteers to support the machine.<br />AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-66658757604540759602012-11-13T18:10:32.472-05:002012-11-13T18:10:32.472-05:00Andrew,
I found this comment at HotAir. I think i...Andrew,<br /><br />I found this comment at HotAir. I think it explains somethings about Ohio and maybe a few other places.<br /><br /><i>Forget Project ORCA. Romney’s entire ground game in Ohio was terrible, and was since the primaries when Rick Santorum came within a hair’s width of beating him in Ohio despite having a shoestring budget. Romney’s guys made no attempt to coordinate efforts with local folks on the ground, listen to their concerns, or even competent organize them. Instead, everything was run out of a cocoon in Boston or Columbus (Ohio’s state capitol) and nobody communicated, volunteers were alienated, and so forth.<br /><br />And in a retail politics state like Ohio, that can make the difference. Hell, we had first-time Republican local judicial candidates beat Romney’s vote totals in Cuyahoga County alone. . .<br /><br />Outlander on November 13, 2012 at 5:57 PM</i><br /><br />Do we know of anyone from Ohio? And what I heard from the Romney Group was that at Ohio, they really, really <b>tried</b>.<br />Joel Farnhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15856960977033430002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-7040486260154561372012-11-13T16:58:26.370-05:002012-11-13T16:58:26.370-05:00T-Rav, I agree. It's not sexy, but it's h...T-Rav, I agree. It's not sexy, but it's highly effective. It gives people a reason to like the party and to want to see it succeed. That buys goodwill and it helps the party overcome other potentially rough spots.<br /><br />Also, if it offers things in the health/education arena, then it becomes that much harder to say that the GOP doesn't care about those things. And those are things that would help the very people we currently lose -- young people and young families.<br /><br />This is something the Republicans need to realize, the Democrats are more than just a political party, they offer things to their members to keep them loyal, and it works.<br /><br />And again, look how close the numbers are. If something like this could even swing 2% of voters or bring another couple percent out of the shadows, we're looking at a blow out.<br />AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-32089185171245528812012-11-13T16:50:39.552-05:002012-11-13T16:50:39.552-05:00Andrew, I think it would too and I personally beli...Andrew, I think it would too and I personally believe the "Outreach" section is potentially the most important part of that. In very real ways, the Democratic organization has formed a subculture of its own, which helps to get its voters to the polls over and over again; the GOP has some associations like that, but not on an extensive basis. A lot of crap could have been avoided if we'd had health/education/other groups twenty or thirty years ago.T-Ravhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10861218035729479354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-4646750343814410082012-11-13T16:11:22.850-05:002012-11-13T16:11:22.850-05:00T-Rav, True. That's always a danger. But aga...T-Rav, True. That's always a danger. But again, I think having a professional staff would be help that a lot because they would be best equipped to put in place quality control systems that let them monitor the volunteers to make sure something like that either can't happen or can't happen very long. Again, no system is perfect, but the more professional you can make something like this, the better the chances of minimizing all these problems.<br /><br />There is no reason that a political party that contest every election in the country every should ever have candidates who fail to file their paperwork on time or in the right places, who fail to get necessary signatures, who fail to do whole chunks of things they need to do to GOTV. Those are mistakes that shouldn't happen and I think the above fixes that.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-37114834140477194852012-11-13T16:05:31.906-05:002012-11-13T16:05:31.906-05:00Joel, it was mostly a lot of Romney aides. And fro...Joel, it was mostly a lot of Romney aides. And from the way the article I read was worded--though it was from NBC, so grain of salt and all that--they didn't know the cards would be canceled. Either way, it's really bad form; and while it doesn't sound like Romney, neither does the haphazard GOTV effort, and yet, that happened.T-Ravhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10861218035729479354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-85625544507270674722012-11-13T16:00:28.441-05:002012-11-13T16:00:28.441-05:00Andrew, it kind of depends on where you're pla...Andrew, it kind of depends on where you're placed in the campaign. If you're in the position I was in--okay, it wouldn't be widespread, but you could do significant limited damage. For example, I could have acted like a complete jerk to people on the phone or door-to-door, enough that they would see the GOP campaign as nasty and maybe change their support or not vote. If you're a little higher up, it would be possible to really sabotage the local GOTV work by not reporting numbers or screwing up call sheets or whatever. <br /><br />Anyway, my point wasn't that having a plant would be so disastrous in itself, just that they weren't doing a very good job of checking people when they hired them. And yes, a professional staff (or at least a staff you knew would be available for the next election cycle) would take care of a lot of these problems.T-Ravhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10861218035729479354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-18570878074042863242012-11-13T14:05:05.794-05:002012-11-13T14:05:05.794-05:00It also allows you to maintain quality because the...It also allows you to maintain quality because these people would know their jobs and have the benefit of experience.<br /><br />It may cost more in the long term to maintain these staffs, but when you're talking about billion dollar campaigns, the cost isn't that high, especially as part of it would be shared by every campaign the run as a Republican in the area.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-13431707475619802342012-11-13T13:59:42.421-05:002012-11-13T13:59:42.421-05:00I would think maintaining a continuous staff would...I would think maintaining a continuous staff would be cheaper than rehiring the positions every two years. tryanmaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09881154741574720094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-41592320562930996842012-11-13T13:24:39.904-05:002012-11-13T13:24:39.904-05:00T-Rav, A couple points.
1. That's asinine an...T-Rav, A couple points.<br /><br />1. That's asinine and unacceptable to cut people off without even the one night. But it also highlights the problems with these campaigns. They are run by prima donnas and fools from the top who are shooting from the hip, and they make tons of mistakes all over the place.<br /><br />2. Having a professional staff in place who do this regularly (keep in mind there are campaigns every two years) would eliminate most of these problems. The key would be that they are treated like managers rather than ideologues and this would be their job, i.e. they would be judged on performance of function, not zeal. And their job would be to run the "machinery" and to plug in the volunteers to make sure it all runs smoothly. Messaging and that stuff would be handled by the candidates.<br /><br />3. There's really no reason to worry about plants or spies. None of this stuff would be secret. It's just about execution really... can you make the contacts, can you distribute material, and can you make sure that your people are updating the information and executing their responsibilities effectively and efficiently.<br /><br />The only secret really would be the data you collect (which should be protected) and the precise messages the candidates intend to use -- which would be handled at a high level and could be kept secret until it is delivered locally to be used. At that point, it has no value as a secret anymore.<br />AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-15787163433983708682012-11-13T13:24:25.570-05:002012-11-13T13:24:25.570-05:00T-Rav,
That last about the cards getting canceled...T-Rav,<br /><br />That last about the cards getting canceled doesn't sound like Romney. I think it was set up prior to the election. Something like should Romney lose, this group of cards gets canceled. Which staffers lost their cards? I bet most of them were last minute people that were told the cards were going to be canceled should Romney lose.Joel Farnhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15856960977033430002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-53993965955172593062012-11-13T13:08:32.235-05:002012-11-13T13:08:32.235-05:00Andrew, from my personal experience, I can affirm ...Andrew, from my personal experience, I can affirm that there is far too much turnover in these campaign organizations. There are a few people who are professional staffers providing oversight, and some volunteers who are committed cycle after cycle and know what they're doing. But a lot of them have just been picked up by whoever, not necessarily with any qualifications or even personal interest in what was going on. Rumor had it after the fact that one of the people I worked with in '08 was a Democratic plant, which wouldn't surprise me because the screening process is so half-baked. <br /><br />As a further anecdote, I read last night that after things went DOA Election Night, the Romney organization dismantled so fast that staffers going back to their hotels after the concession and all was finished found their campaign credit cards had already been canceled. Which is bad. I understand not wanting to keep paying hangers-on indefinitely, but...not even that one night for lodging? <br /><br />Like I said, there was a screw loose somewhere. Probably several, in fact.T-Ravhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10861218035729479354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-3042638583024559222012-11-13T13:05:22.299-05:002012-11-13T13:05:22.299-05:00Only 1.5%.Only 1.5%.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-79446440310912581312012-11-13T13:00:41.427-05:002012-11-13T13:00:41.427-05:00And monkey urine.And monkey urine.T-Ravhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10861218035729479354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-64174917590121066312012-11-13T12:55:39.762-05:002012-11-13T12:55:39.762-05:00Diet Mountain Dew is made from 98% pure and love.Diet Mountain Dew is made from 98% pure and love.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-86032809848424974432012-11-13T12:55:11.741-05:002012-11-13T12:55:11.741-05:00tryanmax, I'm glad I could keep you from losin...tryanmax, I'm glad I could keep you from losing your mind! LOL!<br /><br />I agree with you and I'm really not happy about it. I look out at people like Rush and Ingraham and I honestly see a group of villains at this point. Not only did they sabotage this election as a way to make themselves more popular, but they are acting in a very self-righteous way and are actually trying to wrap themselves in the victim cloak. They are also sabotaging the future already with this insanely disingenuous idea that "nothing is wrong, we just need a more perfect candidate."<br /><br />They have become like those movie characters who tell people "nothing is wrong, do nothing" when you see water pouring into the ship. And they are telling their viewers to fight and undermine the very change we need to save the future.<br /><br />The one guy I actually give credit to right now is Sean Hannity (who I normally despise) because he's the only who has pointed out that these gaps with minorities need to change or we are done.<br /><br />AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-28055542329337019452012-11-13T12:42:32.653-05:002012-11-13T12:42:32.653-05:00P.S. I'd heard that about Diet Pepsi. Terribl...P.S. I'd heard that about Diet Pepsi. Terrible stuff.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-52048381944900350782012-11-13T12:42:12.339-05:002012-11-13T12:42:12.339-05:00T-Rav, That's always a danger, that no matter ...T-Rav, That's always a danger, that no matter how well you plan... you don't execute. Apparently, Romney's team was relying on their ORCA system, which failed.<br /><br />To fix this problem, I think the party needs to (1) shift the focus to the longer terms. Do the registration stuff year round rather than trying to do things at the last minute. The more you can do before the last minute, the less pressure you put on the system.<br /><br />And (2) the party needs a professional infrastructure. They need people in place in every district who do this for a living, who keep the system running smoothly so that when new candidates are picked and they show up with their volunteers, all they need to do is plug in the new people and the new messages. That eliminates these problems we hear about constantly where campaigns stumble because they don't know what they are doing or forget something because they are novices.<br /><br />Right now, we basically recreate the wheel every four years by people who've never built a wheel before. And they rely on political hacks like Karl Rove who claim they know how to build wheels. That's a horrible way to do it.<br /><br />It would be much better to establish this infrastructure, which works for all candidates on the ballot, which combines effort, which makes sure that all the bugs are worked out and things run smoothly. Professionalism pays.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-82084421560407910272012-11-13T12:38:16.332-05:002012-11-13T12:38:16.332-05:00T-Rav, do I then dare ask what Diet Mountain Dew i...T-Rav, do I then dare ask what Diet Mountain Dew is comprised of?tryanmaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09881154741574720094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-56757517233829884532012-11-13T12:35:45.591-05:002012-11-13T12:35:45.591-05:00Indi, let me just say that Andrew just saved me fr...Indi, let me just say that Andrew just saved me from going off the handle. I was about to say the same thing, only my words wouldn't have been so tempered. <br /><br />Let me just say that, after this election, there are many, many prominent "conservatives" who have lost most if not all of their esteem in my eyes. They proved to be very savvy at media manipulation, but they failed to use their powers for the good of the country, choosing only to benefit themselves. <br /><br />The sad irony is, most of these personalities are so incredibly popular, they faced no risk in doing the right thing. And if what you say is true about "genuine conservatism" then they could have all easily backed Romney and yet chose not to. tryanmaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09881154741574720094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-7997347366356564512012-11-13T12:32:08.365-05:002012-11-13T12:32:08.365-05:00Yeah, I can't agree with Morris' claim tha...Yeah, I can't agree with Morris' claim that TV ads don't work. They do. <br /><br />As far as registration drives and GOTV go, here's my thoughts: I was pretty heavily involved in the McCain campaign. We did extensive calls for months, weeding out supporters with door-to-door and phone contacts. (Personally, I thought we did this too long before getting in touch with those supporters, but oh well.) Then for the last four or five days before the election, we did extensive GOTV, calling the people we'd ID'd as McCain supporters and making sure they were going to vote, and then making sure on Election Day that they did vote. It was a massive machine the last few days, and I'm sure it's what delivered Missouri to the red column. <br /><br />For whatever reason, the Romney campaign seems to have utterly failed on this last step. From not keeping updated lists to not coordinating with volunteers to not having enough poll watchers, someone dropped the ball in a big way. Having the right ideas is great, but it doesn't help if you don't turn out your supporters. <br /><br />On a final note, I think it should be pointed out that Pepsi is not made from yak urine. <i>Diet</i> Pepsi is made from yak urine.T-Ravhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10861218035729479354noreply@blogger.com