tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post3896867925664877478..comments2024-01-05T06:18:18.086-05:00Comments on CommentaramaPolitics: Afghanistan FailureAndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-60098857973171319252010-07-01T19:04:23.123-04:002010-07-01T19:04:23.123-04:00Joel, I think that's correct. As long as you ...Joel, I think that's correct. As long as you know your enemy is leaving in a short period of time, why give up anything when all you need to do is wait them out?<br><br>In fact, not only does this make negotiations impossible, but why would the locals sign up with us if they know that we're going to leave them to their fates?<br><br>Not only is this intensely stupid, but frankly, I view it as criminally negligent that Obama would announce that we're leaving and then send more soldiers for one last desperate effort to turn things around.AndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-8924288639593282992010-07-01T15:17:22.579-04:002010-07-01T15:17:22.579-04:00Here is something that can contribute to this disc...Here is something that can contribute to this discussion. The Taliban won't come to the peace talks table because we are leaving.Joel Farnhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15856960977033430002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-53737748200744610892010-06-30T18:16:39.716-04:002010-06-30T18:16:39.716-04:00Ed, I hope they're paying attention. But I th...Ed, I hope they're paying attention. But I think the problem is that it's "politically correct" to accept certain things as facts even though they aren't true. For example, the idea that culture and religion are irrelevant and aren't the root cause of the kinds of problems going on over there.<br><br>Another example is the idea that we need to create a democracy, even if that part of the world lacks the institutions to sustain it.<br><br>I don't think anyone in Washington has the nerve to say let's re-examined these issues. And I think they're dumping this in the military's lap.AndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-19041346622826907802010-06-30T18:01:34.090-04:002010-06-30T18:01:34.090-04:00Interesting stuff. I see hints of bad news in the...Interesting stuff. I see hints of bad news in the stories I've seen on this, but nobody's put it together like this yet. I'm not sure which side I come down on this. I fear you might be right about the Afghans. Hopefully, somebody is thinking about this in Washington.Ednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-22918740579669257802010-06-30T16:33:53.696-04:002010-06-30T16:33:53.696-04:00Mega, That's my view too -- I have immense fai...Mega, That's my view too -- I have immense faith in the military, but no faith in the politicians. And I think that the restraints put on our strategy make victory impossible.<br><br>If we're going to risk American lives, then we need to have a good strategy that can lead to success. Otherwise, our government has no business sending Americans to fight.AndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-90442300888687602922010-06-30T16:26:02.183-04:002010-06-30T16:26:02.183-04:00Very interesting discussion. I have a lot of faith...Very interesting discussion. I have a lot of faith in the military, but I don't have any faith in our political leaders. So I don't know how this is going to turn out.MegaTrollhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03234420338804013858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-47966208073216439272010-06-30T15:27:10.395-04:002010-06-30T15:27:10.395-04:00You're welcome. Feel free to join in at any t...You're welcome. Feel free to join in at any time.AndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-92074961976602964422010-06-30T15:19:44.240-04:002010-06-30T15:19:44.240-04:00Interesting discussion, you two! Thanks for all t...Interesting discussion, you two! Thanks for all the thoughts.CrispyRicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07302075204880024936noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-44174664140210407822010-06-30T13:51:15.470-04:002010-06-30T13:51:15.470-04:00Joel, I don't think Afghanistan can be civiliz...Joel, I don't think Afghanistan can be civilized unless civilization is imposed on them. I think that their culture of clan violence prevents the kinds of institutions from forming that are needed to modernize the country.<br><br>At the same time, the version of Islam that they are teaching each other is all but designed to regress a country to the dark ages and impedes the very growth that is needed to fix the problems that keep them where they are.AndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-35618090030821897722010-06-30T13:35:04.417-04:002010-06-30T13:35:04.417-04:00Andrew,You are making an assumption that Afghanist...Andrew,<br><br>You are making an assumption that Afghanistan can't be civilized or isn't civilized. A possibility, but unlikely. <br><br>The Taliban won't attack a village which decided to die before it gave up a Seal. This happened and a book was written about it from the perspective of the Seal saved. It was chronicled in Lone Survivor. <br><br>This book indicates that the Taliban isn't in as much control as some people believe.Joel Farnhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15856960977033430002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-84506533989117763462010-06-30T13:25:47.574-04:002010-06-30T13:25:47.574-04:00Joel, It's not winnable in terms of the goals ...Joel, It's not winnable in terms of the goals we've set. We can't beat the Taliban while keeping the current culture and government in place.<br><br>In fact, I don't think we can beat the Taliban because they are basically an idea combined with an ethnic group. It's like Northern Ireland was only more violent.AndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-1987392008072938902010-06-30T13:07:51.132-04:002010-06-30T13:07:51.132-04:00Andrew,You don't see it as winnable, yet I see...Andrew,<br><br>You don't see it as winnable, yet I see it as winnable. <br><br>Five or six states which in turn become the United States of Afghanistan sounds good to me.Joel Farnhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15856960977033430002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-2995353675698163202010-06-30T13:05:04.727-04:002010-06-30T13:05:04.727-04:00Joel, As a general, he's a pretty brilliant ma...Joel, As a general, he's a pretty brilliant man. So if anyone can solve this, I think he can.<br><br>But my problem isn't with the military strategy per se, it's with the political strategy. I don't think we can "win" this war within the terms we've established because we've set too many stupid restrictions. For example, we are unwilling to interfere with their government or their culture. Yet, we expect a primitive violent people to become modern Americans just because they can now vote for their warlords.<br><br>We also have stupidly set these rules about keeping the country together, and trying to keep out the neighbors, when this place shouldn't even be a country in the first place. It would be much better run as a series of small countries, even if we had to deal with 5-6 different governments to keep the war going.<br><br>So while I have faith in Petraeus to do as good a job as possible on the military end, I think it's an impossible mission.AndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-62947922272728040872010-06-30T12:55:17.715-04:002010-06-30T12:55:17.715-04:00Andrew,Do you have any faith in Petraeus?Andrew,<br><br>Do you have any faith in Petraeus?Joel Farnhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15856960977033430002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-31534039791172302302010-06-30T12:52:25.384-04:002010-06-30T12:52:25.384-04:00My guess? Because he's an honorable man who t...My guess? Because he's an honorable man who thinks that he can actually do a lot of good in Afghanistan.AndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-42994790394377315782010-06-30T12:50:29.409-04:002010-06-30T12:50:29.409-04:00Andrew,Fair enough. Why would Petraeus decide to a...Andrew,<br><br>Fair enough. Why would Petraeus decide to accept?Joel Farnhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15856960977033430002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-75450178792366526562010-06-30T12:48:55.593-04:002010-06-30T12:48:55.593-04:00Joel, I'll give you three theories on this one...Joel, I'll give you three theories on this one.<br><br>First: He's looking for the most competent General he can find, and Petraeus is it. And/or he needed a "big" name to draw the attention away form the debacle to his reputation that just happened with McChrystal.<br><br>Second: He's looking for someone who has become associated with the Republicans so that he can spread the blame when the current plan doesn't work and he finally does announce the withdrawal.<br><br>Third: This is part of his pattern of appointing his rivals to positions that kill off their careers. Petraeus has been mentioned by many (even the MSM) as a possible Republican candidate for 2012. By appointing him to this job he keeps the General tied up through the election cycle. Also, if things go wrong -- which they are likely to do -- then the General's star power diminishes. . . just like with Hillary.<br><br>In fact, many of his appointments fell into this category -- people who might challenge him at some point. So far, he's managed to marginalize every one of them.<br><br>I would say that Pataeus actually satisfies all three goals.AndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-56231765931845858682010-06-30T12:40:15.151-04:002010-06-30T12:40:15.151-04:00Andrew,Why did Obama choose Petraeus? I see it as ...Andrew,<br><br>Why did Obama choose Petraeus? I see it as grasping at a straw. What say you?Joel Farnhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15856960977033430002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-86839660792760685792010-06-30T12:34:39.397-04:002010-06-30T12:34:39.397-04:00Joel, He'll run again because he's a narci...Joel, He'll run again because he's a narcissist and he loves all the trappings of power.<br><br>But I don't see him winning unless we run a real idiot, which is always possible.AndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-28739090955522946652010-06-30T12:21:36.846-04:002010-06-30T12:21:36.846-04:00Andrew,Do you think Obama will go for a second ter...Andrew,<br><br>Do you think Obama will go for a second term?Joel Farnhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15856960977033430002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-43438434105232654892010-06-30T12:20:16.585-04:002010-06-30T12:20:16.585-04:00Because he's concerned about the politics. He...Because he's concerned about the politics. He doesn't want to appear to be the guy who lost the war. But that's what his 1-year plan is about. He's hoping that we can make enough progress that he can declare victory and leave. But it won't work.<br><br>I think what you'll see is that as we get near the deadline, he's going to announce that somehow we've achieve all of our goals and that we will be "ready" to leave right after November 2012.AndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-57800507832653642462010-06-30T12:12:34.502-04:002010-06-30T12:12:34.502-04:00Andrew,If you say that Obama is CIC and can pull o...Andrew,<br><br>If you say that Obama is CIC and can pull out tomorrow if he wants then Why doesn't he?Joel Farnhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15856960977033430002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-57448135833356222552010-06-30T12:09:48.684-04:002010-06-30T12:09:48.684-04:00Joel, It's inevitable that we're leaving s...Joel, It's inevitable that we're leaving soon. There is simply too much momentum for that now.<br><br>The question is how we leave -- do we cut and run like Obama is planning, do we wait until we get forced out -- which happens if we don't change our plan, or do we try to find a way to turn this into at least a marginal success.AndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-28820896879327218092010-06-30T12:07:36.368-04:002010-06-30T12:07:36.368-04:00Joel, I don't think that's right. If Obam...Joel, I don't think that's right. If Obama doesn't leave, then his left flank will tear him apart. And he's never said we're staying, in fact, he's said the opposite.<br><br>And the public is not thrilled at all with staying either -- pulls show 43% support for staying, 43% for leaving. So no one is going to stop him if he comes up with the right "we've done what we came here to do" speech.<br><br>Also, as commander in chief, he can leave tomorrow even if 99% of the public wants to stay -- that's not being a dictator, that's being the CIC.AndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-84754868182591345532010-06-30T11:58:03.904-04:002010-06-30T11:58:03.904-04:00Andrew,This presupposes that Obama will leave. He ...Andrew,<br><br>This presupposes that Obama will leave. He won't. He has already indicated he won't. <br><br>Unless Obama can control a majority in this country, he won't pull out.Joel Farnhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15856960977033430002noreply@blogger.com