tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post5601696983637745532..comments2024-01-05T06:18:18.086-05:00Comments on CommentaramaPolitics: Feminism v. RacialismAndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-64615461097853046502019-05-02T20:41:40.503-04:002019-05-02T20:41:40.503-04:00Anthony, You're looking at the very narrow iss...Anthony, You're looking at the very narrow issue of who is likely to win the presidency. That's not at all what I'm talking about. I'm talking about the fight "for the soul" of the Democratic Party. Who runs for President will eventually depend on that outcome, but I doubt it will be in this cycle because the war is still ongoing at the lower levels.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-1309034560658093002019-05-02T20:39:51.861-04:002019-05-02T20:39:51.861-04:00Jed, I think we're in an interesting transitio...Jed, I think we're in an interesting transition phase. The Democrats have tried to seem normal since the 1980s, when normal became important again, by presenting a leadership that looked like Harry Reid -- quiet, country (pro-gun rancher), white, male, professed religious, or Tip O'Neil -- fat, grouchy, unionized white guy who couldn't possibly be a liberal, right? This hid a lot of sins because they could dismiss anything crazy that got out into the news as "oh, they're just on the crazy fringe, the real party is the white guys in D.C."<br /><br />Pelosi actually just tried this the other day by dismissing AOC and her wing as "what? Five people?" Whereas the reality is that AOC is much closer to the party and its leaders than Schumer and Pelosi want to appear.<br /><br />But things have changed. Working class white males fled the party leaving female teachers (unions) to take over as the foot soldiers. Their leadership has become increasingly elitist female. The newsrooms covering them have become increasingly female feminist. Even their funding has changed. They no longer rely on unions and an army of activists, having instead switched to a handful of billionaires and Hollywood... so their funding is now premised on specific ideology rather than broad based support.<br /><br />The result of this is that the women who are basically "the party" are screaming that women should represent the party, not this facade of old white males. AOC defeating the number 3 democrat (a white male) is a symptom of that, as is all the screaming about Biden and the white boys getting too much media attention.<br /><br />What we're seeing is basically, a shift in theory between "the white guys make us electable" versus "it's sexist to say white males are more electable". This is the actual debate being played out in opinion pieces and I can't see the pro-woman side losing because they have numbers and momentum.<br /><br />Each upcoming election and new Congress will shift the Democrats further and further into openly being the party of elite women.<br /><br />And watching the black commentary of late, they see that these elite (mainly white) women do not intend to share their power with anyone.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-70398641077163632572019-05-02T18:25:39.491-04:002019-05-02T18:25:39.491-04:00Like I said earlier in the week, I don't see i...Like I said earlier in the week, I don't see it. Distrust of the other helps a little bit around the fringes (its no accident Trump routinely floats racially tinged conspiracy theories against non-white opponents) but its not a big driver for most voters.<br /><br />I suspect the promises one makes and electability matter more than identity. For example Trump is manifestly not an evangelical Christian, but he won their support by promising them (and subsequently giving them) what they wanted. He has moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem, is doing what he can against abortion and is currently talking up his efforts to save Christmas.<br /><br />The polling data I've seen indicates that this early in the race the popularity of Democratic candidates with women and blacks tracks their broader popularity (that would almost have to be the case with women, who constitute more than half the Dem base).<br /><br />A relevant question is what do blacks want? The last big issue (police brutality) has died down and it wasn't all that big. That is probably why some the candidates have hit on the bizarre issue of reparations. I don't think its an accident none of those promisers have found any traction in the black community. <br /><br />While there will invariably be relatively minor stuff I suspect the big issue will be cracking down on hate crimes. Yeah, its not a thing that impacts 999 out of 1000 people but fear is not rational. Also, being softer on (other) crime is in vogue at the moment so that might factor in too though traditionally, liberal blacks haven't insisted upon that from their presidential candidates.<br /><br />https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/441320-47-percent-of-black-women-say-theyd-back-biden-poll<br /><br />Forty-seven percent of black women surveyed for the poll said Biden is their top choice to be the Democratic nominee, giving him a wide lead in the demographic over his rivals.<br /><br />Another 18 percent of the black women polled said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is their top choice, and 9 percent said they back Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.).<br /><br />END QUOTE<br /><br />As for white women, maybe extending the length of time its admissible to file accusations? Like with hate crimes that wouldn't mean much (how is one going to have 30 year old evidence of a rape or sexual assault?) but as with hate crimes, all it has to do is get people to the polls.<br /><br />https://www.usnews.com/news/the-run/articles/2019-04-15/joe-bidens-early-polling-lead-is-powered-by-women<br /><br />The latest look at Iowa, conducted by Monmouth University, shows Biden netting 27 percent of the caucus vote, which delivers him an 11-point lead over second-place Bernie Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont. But Biden's share of the female vote is even greater, at 37 percent.<br />Combined together, all the female candidates garner just 22 percent of the female vote.<br /><br />END QUOTE<br /><br />Despite my willingness to cite current (early) polls, I'm still of the opinion some charismatic radical with no track record could come out and win the Dem nomination with ease and that no matter who the Dems put up Trump is likely to win reelection.Anthonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16124128949343301445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-30180956873427724052019-05-02T18:07:13.868-04:002019-05-02T18:07:13.868-04:00interesting analysis. There is a lot of exceptions...interesting analysis. There is a lot of exceptions to everything, of course. Sometimes hatred of Trump Nd conservatives cause them to close ranks, but what us more likely, black voter turnout will drop off unless Haareis or Booker is on the ticketTennessee Jedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10604275115906776992noreply@blogger.com