tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post9185371525212678122..comments2024-01-05T06:18:18.086-05:00Comments on CommentaramaPolitics: The Census Reads Commentarama (Finally)AndrewPricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-78415936648655908242012-12-12T19:22:23.819-05:002012-12-12T19:22:23.819-05:00Indi, I agree that criminal status is important an...Indi, I agree that criminal status is important and stopping gangs and cartels is a big deal and should be a big deal. I think the problem in Arizona was grandstanding. Too many politicians jumped on this with the idea that Arizona was about to start deporting illegals and played that up.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-86447666471137606342012-12-12T17:29:31.502-05:002012-12-12T17:29:31.502-05:00Andrew
I agree with respect to the wall. buildi...Andrew <br /><br />I agree with respect to the wall. building it would be stupid and I don't know why we engaged that nonsense. I owever thing that until the Arizona law those things were ignored as nonsense.<br /><br />With the Arizona law it became real that something was going to be done. I still think a law targeting people with gang affiliations and Cartel background specifically would be better.<br /><br />i.e. the law would state upon stopping someone who appeared to be a member of a gang or organized criminal enterprize the status of immigration would be checked and deportation would be expedited otherwise the incident would be just logged. Would be very hard for the libs to attack that I think but I am sure they'd try to spin even that.Individualisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11005025873042230314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-2040631199954907512012-12-12T11:38:03.051-05:002012-12-12T11:38:03.051-05:00Indi, The problem was this wasn't presented as...Indi, The problem was this wasn't presented as such. It was presented as "we're going to find all those illegals the federal government won't." But in any event, border security won't be a problem once people stop connecting it to attempts to stop illegal immigration and deport everyone. At that point, the issue gets depoliticized and rational minds can prevail.<br /><br />And don't forget, conservatives are obsessively focused on this idea of a wall, but the vast majority of illegals got here by overstaying visas. Conservatives have politicized this and liberals just played up their stupidity.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-20204478992838078842012-12-12T10:35:30.380-05:002012-12-12T10:35:30.380-05:00The problem with Border Security with Mexico will ...The problem with Border Security with Mexico will not go away with decreased illegal immigration from Mexico because the Border Security problem has nothing to do with immigration from Mexico, legal or illegal.<br /><br />The problem is the Drug Cartels. Brewer's law in Arizona was not meant to round up every illegal and deport them. It was meant to depart criminals. I am certain that that law is the wrong approach to the issue but the fact is that at the time Brewer's only approach was this law because the Federal Government is doing nothing about it. Heck they were selling them guns at the time.<br /><br />Obama and the Dems turned the issue into an immigration issue and the GOP establishment's failure was to define the issue correctly. Border security became about illegal immigration and the Cartels were marginalized in the Presidential debate. <br /><br />This is puzzling because when Brewer implemented this law and the initial justification to Arizona voters was to do something about Arizonians, White and Hispanic being killed by Drug Cartel and MS13 gangs that made the Cosa Nostra of the 1920's look like choir boys.<br /><br />In the end perhaps there should have been another approach than Brewer's law. A law that gave more power to incarcerate and go after Cartels. To use military grade vehicles deployed at places the drugs are shipped to be able to respond to para military gangs. Obama would still have opposed this but I think it might have been harder to spin the activities to all Hispanics if the law stated it was focused on known Cartel operatives and Gang members such as the Mexican MAfia and MS13.<br /><br />Who knows... it's crying over spilled milk know.Individualisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11005025873042230314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-10249417408175114702012-12-11T17:43:22.113-05:002012-12-11T17:43:22.113-05:00I've been debating writing an article about so...I've been debating writing an article about some recent economic arguments the left has been making, but I fear it would put people to sleep.<br /><br />What I find amazing is the idea that pumping money into the economy results in a 5 times boost, but taking money out of the economy has no negative effect. There is zero consistency there.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-56853400307131973052012-12-11T17:38:06.673-05:002012-12-11T17:38:06.673-05:00And we wonder why the same people can't unders...And we wonder why the same people can't understand that lowering taxes can increase revenues. For a party who's slogan was recently "Change" they certainly have a poor grasp of it. tryanmaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09881154741574720094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-5606281583535658042012-12-11T15:37:23.961-05:002012-12-11T15:37:23.961-05:00Ed, Nevada is disappointing. The Republicans seem...Ed, Nevada is disappointing. The Republicans seem to do well in state election, but not national ones.<br /><br />I suspect Santa is "idle rich" so of course he's a Democrat.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-63172729561213492262012-12-11T14:59:18.251-05:002012-12-11T14:59:18.251-05:00Speaking of Red and Blue, did anyone see that peop...Speaking of Red and Blue, did anyone see that people think Santa is a Democrat? Makes sense... his economics function purely on magic, he's highly judgmental, and he runs a sweatshop while pretending he's a good guy. Sounds like a typical liberal to me.Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18122308626703654554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-25465650911338578142012-12-11T14:57:18.659-05:002012-12-11T14:57:18.659-05:00I don't know about Texas, but I can tell you t...I don't know about Texas, but I can tell you that it's not working in Nevada -- with Asians or Hispanics. The GOP needs to do something or this state is going to turn blue.Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18122308626703654554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-21641133806215500452012-12-11T14:19:18.144-05:002012-12-11T14:19:18.144-05:00DUQ, I'm not super-familiar with Texas, but fr...DUQ, I'm not super-familiar with Texas, but from what I hear, it sounds like the Texas GOP is doing a good job of bringing Hispanics on board. If so, we should absolutely see how they do it and try to adopt similar approaches in other states.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-46581068080525442812012-12-11T14:05:57.204-05:002012-12-11T14:05:57.204-05:00K and Andrew, I was not a Perry fan and I admit it...K and Andrew, I was not a Perry fan and I admit it angered me when he said that about us not having a heart, but in hindsight, I think he was right. Hopefully, conservatives will look at Texas to see how they are handling the Hispanic issue.DUQnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-30253614278811677622012-12-11T13:14:53.037-05:002012-12-11T13:14:53.037-05:00K, I didn't Perry because he's a political...K, I didn't Perry because he's a political crony who would have been W the Sequel, but on Hispanics, he was right and I should have realized that at the time.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-7630872437972617112012-12-11T13:13:25.992-05:002012-12-11T13:13:25.992-05:00K, No, that's a good point. Bush Jr. had a lo...K, No, that's a good point. Bush Jr. had a lot of Hispanic support too. But the party as a whole has lost Hispanics left and right and gets virtually no support among them in places like California, Colorado, and Arizona, and our support among them is fading in Florida despite there being so many Cubans.<br /><br />It would behoove the party to really take a look at Perry and W and see what they are doing differently and then duplicate it on a national level.<br /><br />Unfortunately for many conservatives, the answer is that these guys support amnesty and they support the DREAM Act and they oppose English only laws and they don't whine about immigrants getting benefits. But those are the kinds of things conservatives will need to learn to accept if they want to win elections in the future.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-81490180326985754882012-12-11T13:07:21.765-05:002012-12-11T13:07:21.765-05:00Andrew:we just need maybe 40% of them.
Uh-HEM:
LI...Andrew:<em>we just need maybe 40% of them.</em><br /><br />Uh-HEM:<br /><a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/perry-s-overlooked-asset-hispanic-support-20110819" rel="nofollow">LINK</a>Khttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16289856510554336990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-76293207351640421002012-12-11T12:52:14.876-05:002012-12-11T12:52:14.876-05:00DUQ, This is a good thing in many ways. It means ...DUQ, This is a good thing in many ways. It means the cultural change people feared won't happen. It means also means conservatives have a chance to fix the mess they created because they aren't being faced with immediately being overwhelmed by hostile voters. But it doesn't change the fact that conservatives need to make changes if they want their ideology to survive in the country.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-23164171261283755312012-12-11T12:28:25.029-05:002012-12-11T12:28:25.029-05:00Also, I see the Michigan stuff is getting really n...Also, I see the Michigan stuff is getting really nasty now. I hope they stick to their guns and make Michigan a right to work state.DUQnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-43296974419864153212012-12-11T12:27:15.754-05:002012-12-11T12:27:15.754-05:00Interesting stuff. I think conservatives should b...Interesting stuff. I think conservatives should be very happy about this because the way things were headed, conservatism was finished with conservatives having angered so many Hispanics and with their numbers increasing so much. This though, tells me that conservatives have time to turn the ship around and give these people are reason to become conservatives. Let's hope they do it.DUQnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-52123194601231621892012-12-11T11:46:41.799-05:002012-12-11T11:46:41.799-05:00T-Rav, This data is for Hispanics in the US and do...T-Rav, This data is for Hispanics in the US and doesn't break them down by place of origin. But the trends are the same everywhere -- birthrates are crashing throughout South/Central America, just as they are crashing around the world. Mexico's is incredibly low right now as are several other countries down there -- way below ours.<br /><br />By and large, these countries are also becoming more stable and more middle class. And we are not the magnet we were anymore -- but countries like Brazil and Mexico are becoming magnets.<br /><br />I honestly think this wave is over and won't start again. And since the native Hispanic birthrate is really low, I would be surprised if they ever got above 16% and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they stalled out where they are now.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-76714410488000832712012-12-11T11:42:15.383-05:002012-12-11T11:42:15.383-05:00Jed, This is one of those that has always struck m...Jed, This is one of those that has always struck me a simply wrong. You just can't project a straight line trend in anything that involves humans or nature. The universe doesn't work that way. And in this case, for this idea to work, Mexicans would have needed to be incredibly unique. For one thing, they would have needed to maintain a super high birthrate which no other people on the planet have maintained. They also would need to maintain it once they got to the US. None of that made sense.<br /><br />Ultimately, the thing people need to keep in mind is that the US has gone through this several times. Each time we've been hit by a wave of people from anywhere, people look at the peak and go "OMG, they are going to take over." It never happens. It won't happen now.<br /><br />On Asians, I actually suspect that their boom will ultimately be a bust. They seem to have some of the lowest birthrates in the world already, Asia is becoming more prosperous, it's hard to get there from here, etc. My guess is that ultimately, they top out around 5-6%.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-2137997741799030682012-12-11T11:36:49.369-05:002012-12-11T11:36:49.369-05:00Anthony, On the one hand, I think the Pew study is...Anthony, On the one hand, I think the Pew study is rather biased. Their conclusions and their wording strike me as far left. They also make the mistake of lumping "Asians" into one category when I know for a fact there are massive political differences between Asians from different countries.<br /><br />That said, I agree with you. Quite frankly, conservatives have been spewing a ton of hate for about a decade now at anyone who isn't white and Christian and that has hurt them with all these groups. That needs to stop if we ever want to get any of these people. I firmly believe that. And that means no more whining about English only, no more whining about building walls or about foreigners coming here and destroying America. And you are totally right about the anti-anybody-but-Christians thing. That's a serious problem.<br /><br />However, even bigger, the Republicans need to finally generate a platform that people want. Simply being "not the Democrats" won't do it.<br /><br />Here's your link: <a href="http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/06/19/the-rise-of-asian-americans/" rel="nofollow">LINK</a>AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-59330249554839580832012-12-11T11:26:55.526-05:002012-12-11T11:26:55.526-05:00Anthony, I think those are all valid reasons for t...Anthony, I think those are all valid reasons for the fall and to believe it won't be going back up. But the biggest thing, frankly, is the fact they're out of people. Mexico is the biggest shipper of people and they are out of people to send. Not to mention, they are becoming a middle class country which means they are generally stable economically and there is no reason for people to flee -- the same is true with much of South/Central America.<br /><br />So Hispanic immigration did peak in the 1990s and it's fallen ever since and I expect it will keep falling. And with the Hispanic birthrate even below the white birth rate in the US, I think they've almost peaked in terms of population percentage.<br /><br />The next big wave is apparently Asians, but I'm not sure how long that will run either because Asia is becoming more prosperous across the board and because they don't have the same way to ship millions of people here at once.AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-57694822038640535142012-12-11T11:23:09.843-05:002012-12-11T11:23:09.843-05:00K, I think we need a different approach. I think ...K, I think we need a different approach. I think we need to start giving <i>the appearance</i> of genuine diversity -- just like Democrats who are run by white males make it look like they aren't. I think we need a bunch of minority faces to appear at all press conferences. I think we need to start running a lot of Hispanic candidates in Hispanic districts... ditto on Asians. We need to stop scaring these people too.<br /><br />But the big thing is that we need a genuine platform they would want.<br /><br />And again, the key thing is that we don't need 100% of even 51%, we just need maybe 40% of them. That's what this census figure tells us.<br />AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-46671039219785732682012-12-11T11:20:05.348-05:002012-12-11T11:20:05.348-05:00Thanks Ed, I do my best to stay ahead of the curve...Thanks Ed, I do my best to stay ahead of the curve. :)<br /><br />Here's the link: <a href="http://commentaramapolitics.blogspot.com/2012/12/the-census-reads-commentarama-finally.html" rel="nofollow">LINK</a>AndrewPricehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11312364467936820986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-19391302388904149562012-12-11T10:58:31.991-05:002012-12-11T10:58:31.991-05:00Gee, I don't know. They also do the straight-l...Gee, I don't know. They also do the straight-line projection for global warming and so far that's proved pretty accurate...oh.<br /><br />Seriously, though, the information about Mexico is interesting. My question is, what about the rest of Latin America? Many of the immigrants from south of the border, needless to say, come from Ecuador, Guatemala, El Salvador, and other countries (and as I've said before, Mexico needs to explain its own border-control policies with these immigrants before attacking us for ours). Any similar data there?T-Ravhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10861218035729479354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6251675227852122352.post-35674777582316999122012-12-11T08:45:57.030-05:002012-12-11T08:45:57.030-05:00In my corporate days, we had very intelligent peop...In my corporate days, we had very intelligent people writing white papers on what the business environment would look like over the next 3, 5, 10 years or beyond. They were always well written and utilized premises that seemed quite logical at the time. As it turned out, they were as wrong as often as they were right in their predictions, a track record that would not make Nostradamus proud.<br /><br />The problem, I think, it that there are usually events that happen that were unforeseen, and that help shape the future. For example, who knows how long the pipeline of good high-paying union government jobs will continue during the reign of Obama? And if that spigot is turned off?? The Austrian School of economics was criticized for failing to adhere to standardized modeling techniques, but that was exactly their point. The human condition is too complex and fluid tom accurately model.<br /><br /> On a lighter note, It does seem likely we will see a rise in Asian populace. The new owners have a heck of lot of people who need some leg room given the overcrowding they face back in the mother country. Plus, they will want to keep an eye on their investment. They may initially start out in San Francisco, via an agreement, to keep the settlers from "going native." Gradually, some hearty souls will spread to the mid-west and east. This phenomenon will be known as going "beyond the pale."Tennessee Jedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10604275115906776992noreply@blogger.com