The unemployment rate in June rose to 9.5%, the worst in 26 years and a full 1.5% higher than Obama/Biden's estimate. So did anyone see this coming, or is Joe right?In November 2008, Goldman Sachs economists forecast a 9% unemployment rate for 2009. Ooops. Maybe no one told Joe? Perhaps Goldman is just too obscure for Joe to notice (yes, that’s a teaser for something coming up).
Maybe Goldman was an outlier? Nope, Goldman was one of many.
On March 5 of this year, economist Nouriel Roubini, issued a report that summarized various private unemployment forecasts -- the ones the stock market relies on. Strangely, at least if you believe Joe, each of these economists gave an estimate that was much higher than the Obama/Biden estimate and much closer to the actual rate experienced so far:
RGE Monitor: 9.9% in 2009, increasing to 10.5% in 2010.
Morgan Stanley: 10.0% in 2009.
JP Morgan: 8.7% in 2009
Merrill Lynch: 9.9% in 2009, increasing to 10.4% in 2010.
This resulted, according to Roubini, in an average of 9.7% for the private forecasts. Even the Federal Reserve forecast unemployment at 8.7%.
So no one even "guessed" it was going to go above 8% Joe? Is it possible that Joe hasn't heard of Goldman, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan. . . the Fed? Or, perhaps, when Joe said “everyone,” he only meant everyone on the Obama team? Or maybe he was just lying.
For more of Joe's greatest hits, check out Lawhawk's prior article on Joe Gaffemeister Biden.
Andrew: I think Biden has Tourette's Syndrome. His ability to say the craziest things at the craziest times must be involuntary. How can we take seriously a man who says that the worst is over, we'll peak at 8% while the Bureau of Labor statistics is simultaneously announcing the unemployment rate is 9.5%? If Obama brought Biden aboard for comic relief, he certainly picked the right guy.
ReplyDeleteI dare you to ask him what is in a can of "Chicken of the Sea"!
ReplyDeleteBev, LOL! You make me wish I was a talk show host!
ReplyDeleteBev: I'm waiting for the look of shock on his face when somebody tell him buffalo don't have wings and chickens don't have fingers.
ReplyDeleteThis sounds like standard blame the previous occupants as long as possible. As I mentioned in a comment on an earlier post, Frank Luntz sees the public as distrusting the current leadership, but don't trust Republicans much better. he claims they may get a pass through 2010 unless people start really feeling the impact of the new policies or unless our political leadership does a better job of voicing a positive alternative. That is hard to do when much of the media works against us.
ReplyDeleteJed, you're right about the attempt to blame others. Obama tried the same thing this morning.
ReplyDeleteHe REALLY makes me mad. Especially his comments about how it's sounds corny to be proud of your country. Ummm, no joe, it doesnt. And frankly, why have you been politicking for so long if you think so?
ReplyDeleteAnd he's really weird looking.
Apparently, JB and Our Dear Leader can't get the party line straight with whether Israel can nuke Iran. Obama says "No", but Biden says "Yes". Oh, my, what's a country to do??
ReplyDeleteI thank God every day that President Obama selected Biden as his VP.
ReplyDeleteBev, if you think about it, he could very well have caused a war this weekend. All that had to happen would have been Israel or Iran decided to react.
ReplyDeleteWriter X, he is one of God's special little creatures isn't he?
My husband works for Merrill Lynch. We've been looking at the predictions for unemployment for months. We knew! And we didn't have the likes of Warren Buffet advising us. Stupid. LawHawk is right. Tourette's is the only explanation.
ReplyDeleteSQT,
ReplyDeleteYou're right, everyone in the stock market seemed to know. So how could Obama/Biden not know? The answer is that if they had "known", it would have killed their plans and hurt their budget estimates. Plus, it's a "great" excuse to use now that their stimulus isn't working.
Andrew, they knew, but they are using this as one last chance to slam the former administration. Though, I have noticed in the last few weeks, they have toned down the Bush bashing rhetoric considerably. Interestingly, the poll numbers have Our Dear Leader's approval rating (Rasmussen)in steady decline at now 54%. There are signs that the honeymoon is over.
ReplyDeleteBev, I think you're 100% right. They are trying to blame Bush, but it's not working because (1) memories are short and (2) they already claimed to have fixed the problem.
ReplyDeleteI saw the poll numbers. Interesting, isn't it? And if the market tanks and unemployment goes to 10.5%, it's only going to get worse.