A little good news from the electoral map. For at least three decades now, Americans have been moving away from the sclerotic old-line liberal states in the Northeast. They’ve been moving to the much more conservative South and West. In so doing, they are gradually shifting the political balance of power between conservative and liberal states. The 2010 Census will continue this trend, and that’s bad news for the Democrats.Over Christmas, two different political data firms released remarkably similar estimates of how the 2010 census will affect the distribution of House seats (and electoral votes). These reports were based on 2009 Census data.
According to these firms, eight states will gain a total of eleven new House seats: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas (4 seats), Utah and Washington. Notice that these are states that tend to vote heavily Republican, with the exception of Washington.
At the same time, ten states will lose those eleven seats: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Ohio (2 seats) and Pennsylvania. What do these states have in common? Other than Louisiana, they’re reliably Democratic. . . sorry Ohio, it’s true.
This could result in a shift in the House (and Presidential electoral votes) of nine votes for the Republicans, depending on how the redistricting is handled within each state. The Politico projects a seven vote swing.
Seven votes would have killed PelosiCare in the House.
More importantly, these changes are getting closer to breaking the parity between liberal and conservative states. If these changes continue, in a couple of decades, it may become virtually impossible for a liberal to be elected President or for a liberal party to control the House of Representatives (the Senate is different).
Indeed, this could become an electoral advantage similar to that enjoyed by the Labor Party in Britain, where the Conservatives need to win by almost double digits just to become the majority party. The same could one day become true in this country, with the Democrats on the short end of the stick.
Such a change would have a significant effect on the Democratic Party. They would need to adapt, by moving to the right, or forever face regional irrelevance. It would also mean that states like California, which spends itself into a drunken stupor and then begs the other forty-nine states for help, will need to change their ways. All of this would be great for the country.
But that is all down the road. These changes won’t take effect until 2012. And in 2012, it is unlikely that the Republicans will need an electoral advantage to win. Unless the Republicans choose a truly bad candidate (and I can think of a couple who are rather popular right now) they should be able to sweep aside Obama and his Democratic allies, whose entire agenda is opposed by around 60% of the public and close to 70% of non-Democrats.
In any event, the days of liberalism in the United States may be numbered. So let’s encourage this trend to continue. If you know anyone who is conservative, and they aren’t happy living in one of those decaying worker’s paradises in the North, tell them to go West. . .
I like what you say Andrew, and it has merit, however it’s important when these people transfer to these red sates, that they leave their leftist dogma back in the blue states. Another X-factor is Immigration Reform (amnesty). This could flood America with sixteen to twenty million newly minted voters that will vote about sixty/forty in favor of democrats. This could change when this group begins paying taxes, and has a say on issues such as abortion, or even silly laws like same sex marriage, being majority Catholic.
ReplyDeleteAnd I used to think that most of the people who moved to Arizona from the East and Midwest did so because they couldn't stand the snow. :-)
ReplyDeleteThat is good news, Andrew. But let's hope McCain doesn't make a third run for the Presidency.
Stan, Right now, the idea of an amnesty is so poisonous that I just can't them doing it. But it's something to be concerned about.
ReplyDeleteThe key is that Republicans need to start making headway with Hispanic voters. There's plenty of opportunity there for Republicans, they just need to come up with an effect plan (hint hint -- we already talked about it).
Writer X, I think for decades, Arizona was a little different because of the "Snowbirds." But people have been moving South and West for decades now -- largely to escape poor economies, unionization, and overregulation.
ReplyDeleteUntil recently California, like the rest of the West and the South, was drawing people in. But now that's working in reverse -- as anyone in the other Western states can attest.
The problem with the Californians, compared to the East Coasters/Northerners is that the East Coasters/Northerners tend to be more conservative and are leaving because they can't stand the entrenched liberal policies. The Californians are suburban liberals who are escaping the mess they made. . . and then immediately start repeating the same mistakes.
i almost wrote about this today, so i'm glad to see you have it covered! here in texas we have seen these changes and not all of them good. when libs move in, they do bring their politics. thankfully, living in such a state as texas, those ideals mostly fall away once those libs get entrenched. hell, they even buy guns after awhile. some to shoot at stuff to eat afterwards. they just can't help themselves once they see the light, so to speak. yee-ha!
ReplyDeleteAndrew: I hope you're right, and the electoral numbers seem to lean that way. My concern with California is that it won't change its total number of votes, but that after a Democrat-controlled census and redistricting, the Democrats will control more seats even though the total population will not have changed. The flight of taxpayers to other states is likely to make the political landscape here look mighty bleak. I hope the gains in other states can offset that gain for the left in the formerly Golden State.
ReplyDeletePatti, Great minds right! LOL!
ReplyDeleteTexas has seen huge growth over the past couple decades, and sadly, many of them are liberals. But as you note, unless they move into a college down or something, they do tend to lose their liberalism slowly but surely.
I understand the problem for the Republicans in Texas is an increase in the percentage of Hispanics voting.
The problem in places like my state is that the liberals found a haven -- Denver, a liberal island within a very conservative/libertarian state. The California liberals all moved straight to Denver where they kept right up implementing the very things that caused them to flee California in the first place.
Right now, we're kind of a purple state because of that -- evenly balanced. But with the economy slowing, a lot of them have moved on again and some of them are starting to come to their senses. So I'm hopeful Colorado will right itself.
Lawhawk, That's the million dollar question -- redistricting. In fact, that's the primary reason that control of state governments is to incredibly important. I don't know how much California can do with redistricting, it strikes me they've already pretty much made it impossible to toss out incumbents. But you never know.
ReplyDeleteLet's just say that Republican sweep of state governments couldn't come at a better time than 2010!
Andrew: Amen, brother!
ReplyDeleteAnd a reminiscence. When I was a freshman at Berkeley, I did a lot of driving across the Bay Bridge to party in San Francisco (too much partying, some would say). At that time, just as you approached the SF City exits, there was a huge (and I mean huge) neon sign with the populations of New York and California and a countdown clock to when California would become the most populous state in the Union. I happened to be crossing the bridge when we hit that number, and the sign made Las Vegas look dark by comparison. How far we've come (and not much of it good). California has suffered a net loss in population (not enough to lose us a seat), but the real statistic is that for the first time since 1850 (I think), we will not gain a seat in Congress. Probably a good thing.
Patti. Yee Haw! Good observation on Texas liberals. As you probably know, we are not an entitlement state and you gotta go to work to survive or live in free ghetto housing (and I mean rough, no Calif here). Mainstream liberals are more central in my research as well. On another note, punk criminal from out of state comes in to rob someone, Jethro blows him away in the yard. Liberal gun control (ex. Calif) just doesn't work. Larry's research and analysis is promising,and we will support the trend. Texas is like the sleeping giant and it is wakening. Many voters both blue and red are getting really pissed. I'm hoping Larry it doesn't take a couple of decades to keep this from happening again. Great article. Thank you.
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