As the swing states decide, we'll update the map above and let you know which states have gone which way. Reputable sources say Romney wins 315 votes. My personal guess is that he wins 301 votes: New Hampshire, VA, NC, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, all of Nebraska, Colorado, and Nevada. He does not get Oregon, any of Maine, or Pennsylvania. But we'll see.
The Senate is important tonight too. Of those "in play," we are defending: Massachusetts, Indiana, Maine and Arizona. All but Arizona are endangered. The Democrats are defending: Hawaii, Wisconsin, Connecticut, North Dakota, Nebraska, Montana, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. All but Florida are endangered. We need to win a net of four seats to take control. I predict we win four.
By way of early updates....
ReplyDeleteMy Pennsylvania source tells me that the Senate race is within a point or two, so turnout will decide the race. Should be interesting!
Also, everyone should read this: Fred Barnes. None of it is truly new, but it's solid and it's encouraging. Key points:
In 2008, self-identified Democrats led Republicans in turnout by seven percentage points. Gallup’s projection is that Republicans will have a 49-46 percent edge this year.
And don't forget, independents are breaking for Romney according to every poll.
Early voting numbers are further evidence of ground game parity. Democrats have a slight edge, but their numbers are down significantly from 2008. Far more Republicans have voted early this year than in 2008.
The ground game wins battleground states.
Indicators. Many point to a Romney win. He does well among “high-propensity-voting” blocs such as, in the Battleground Poll, seniors (54 percent), married voters (56 percent), weekly church attendees (59 percent), white evangelicals (79 percent), and gun owner householders (60 percent). He also leads among key demographic groups such as suburban voters (54 percent), Catholics (53 percent), and middle class voters (52 percent). Obama has large leads among groups such as Hispanics with a lower propensity to vote.
Suburban voters, Catholics and middle class voters chose Obama in 2008.
I had read the Fred Barnes piece, and agree it is encouraging. This will be close. Most of the concern comes from the turnout issue. I like to think turnout will be great on our side, but we just can't know. Tomorrow will be difficult to sweat out.
ReplyDeleteJed, I agree. This is going to be tense until we know for sure how things are going. I'll bet we don't know anything until 11:00 PM EST.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it will be close. The biggest stat that makes me believe this is the independent vote, which is breaking huge for Romney. So even if repubs and dems cancel each other out, this makes it a blowout.
ReplyDeleteP.S. We're starting a new series at the film site today: Questionable Star Wars
ReplyDeleteKoshcat, That's what logic tells me too, but until it happens, I'll be nervous.
ReplyDelete1,000 comments or bust, people!
ReplyDeleteMy dad lives in Montana and that senate race is very, very close. He is a lobbiest so knows both staffs well. Internal GOP polling has Rehberg up 2 while internal dem polling has Tester up 1. I think if Tester wins you will see a less liberal senator. Maybe not enough to repeal Obamacare but enough to be willing to discuss changes. Final results may not be until very late.
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, Absolutely! LOL!
ReplyDeleteKoshcat, I think people are overestimating the impact of the libertarian. I think the election being close will bring over people to the Republican side who might otherwise vote third party. But we'll see. I think the Republicans win the state.
BTW, I agree with GOP getting the senate somewhere between 52-55. I can live with that because they can set the agenda. The first order of business: pass the Ryan bill. Do that and the markets go crazy. Go to a lower tax rate; they'll go insane.
ReplyDeleteMaybe, but internal polling is usually more accurate. I read their results as a statistically even. The final results will probably depend on who shows up to vote. With enthusiasm gap favoring repubs, that may make the difference. He also tells me that the state legislature may pick up more GOP seats, but that polling is not as reliable.
ReplyDeleteKoshcat, I think a lot will depend on turnout today. I'm really hoping that all the signs are right and we are looking at a huge turnout advantage. If it's even close to even, then the independents should swing things our way.
ReplyDeleteI see internal polling as a lot more accurate too. So we'll see.
My prediction: 24 hours from now, give or take, I will have a full-on nervous breakdown. Should be fun.
ReplyDeleteYou and me both. I honestly don't ever remember an election meaning as much as this.
ReplyDeleteIn case anyone wants to know what will not happen, CNBC's Jim Cramer came out with his "electoral map." He predicts Obama will win 55% of the vote and win the EC, 440 to 98.
ReplyDeleteBernie Madoff just emailed me to say that Cramer is the one man you want to trust with all your financial investments.
1,000 comments or bust? I'm adding mine to the count. Now, I hope I will be able to sleep.
ReplyDeleteBeing 27 years old. This might be the only time, I've ever been nervous about a Presidential election. On top of that, we have some key Senate seats to worry about! There's just so much at stake! Well, If Romney loses (God forbid), I should be used to going more to the wrong path! I live in California, afterall! I'm tough, I can handle more bad economic policies! Bring it on! LOL
ReplyDeleteActually an interesting case scenario would be Obama winning and the Repubs taking over the Senate and keeping the House.
ReplyDeletePrediction........Romney wins barely. Dems keep Senate. 4 more years of gridlock with nothing being done in the Senate. No fiscal sanity, no SS or Mediscare changes, nothing. Dems then claim Romney can't produce positive change as promised and go on to capture House in 2014. Same old same old.
ReplyDeleteI am at peace with whatever happens today. I have done my part, voted early, and can only live my life today as I normally do. Whatever happens, happens. I can't waste my time worrying about it. Similar to watching football games, which I rarely do anymore. I've found as I've gotten older, that I don't like the helpless feeling of not being able to influence the real time outcome of a contest.
With that said.......keep an eye on vote fraud in major cities. All will amazingly go for Obama.
there is a picture of B.O. on Drudge shedding a tear. I tuly hope he is overcome by the fact he realizes he can jump start the groundbreaking of the Barrack Hussein Obama Center for Social Justice studies near his new home down the street from Reverend Wright while he writes the memoirs of his one and only term as POTUS.
ReplyDeleteHelping us reach 1000...
ReplyDeleteIt's morning again in America, but it's going to be a long damn day.
I've been mostly calm and confident over the past week or so, but this morning, I'm feeling sick to my stomach. This is it!
Let's get this done.
I've got nothing left but prayer, which is everything.
ReplyDeleteGod bless America, y'all!
The reports on early voting in Ohio are that there's been a swing of about 125,000 votes from '08 Dem counties to '08 GOP counties. If I remember correctly, that's about half of the total margin by which Obama won the state. Also, not sure what this means for the Akin-McCaskill race, but someone was saying turnout in the STL area will be ~70%.
ReplyDeleteI will be mixing up a pitcher of celebratory martinis later today.
ReplyDeletePolls open now in Arizona, although I voted early.
Hubby just left for work, he's dropping off his first Presidential Ballot since becoming a citizen. He's feeling very American today.
ReplyDeleteOn the other side of the river, East St. Louis, IL, a heavily minority Democratic stronghold, is said to have a sharp fall on turnout so far, compared to what people saw in '08. Granted, there's no competitive races at the national or statewide level, as far as I know, but still.
ReplyDeleteAm I crazy for actually believing Romney might have a slight chance of grabbing CA? Most liberals I know are very disillusioned with Obama, their excitement from 4 years ago is gone and I've seen a suprising number of cars on the freeways and parking lots with RR 2012 bumper stickers lately. I must on to something...
ReplyDeleteI think the only way Romney wins California is if the spirit of Lawhawk knocked some sense into 50.1% of the voters. I'm not sure if the hand of God would be powerful enough for that. Then again, he has Larry now.
ReplyDeleteTam - That is really cool!! It's exactly what makes us citizens...voting! Congratulations to your husband!
ReplyDeleteKosh, I have to agree. It would take a few dozen lightning bolts to bring about that result. I fear God may have turned them over to their own wickedness.
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, Kramer is usually great for telling you what not to do. I've paid attention to his stock market commentary and I've found he's great at picking winners when everyone is winning, but he's horrible when the real picking needs to be done. And his political views are juvenile at best.
ReplyDeleteSnape, I'm nervous too. This is probably the first time I've been nervous since 1984 actually when all the polls showed Reagan losing even though it was obvious he was great for the country.
ReplyDeleteJed, Forget the Center for Social Competence, I'm thinking Obama's talents are best used as leader of the world by becoming the lifetime head of the UN.
ReplyDeleteThis is going to be a loooooong day. A friend posted a very positive "I'm at peace" thing about God's providence. My response: yeah, but God lets us choose to be idiots too!
ReplyDeleteI am already worked up about it, and it's 9:40am...
[went and voted this morning!]
Tam, Congrats! That's really great! :)
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, Let's hope that's true about St. Louis and East St. Louis and let's hope that means low turnout for Obama all around the country!
ReplyDeleteSnape, Koshcat and T-Rav, I can't imagine Romney winning California. That would be beyond shocking if it happened. I think Obama wins California by a comfortable 5-8%.
ReplyDeleterlaWTX, "God lets us choose to be idiots"... isn't that the truth!
ReplyDeleteI've been trying to find out what I can from the blogs and talk radio, and it SOUNDS like there is massive turnout in the Republican areas of swing states, while their Dem counterparts are way down. That's encouraging, but as they say, the plural of anecdotes is not data.
ReplyDeleteI must ask you all of your indulgence to a superstitious old geezer. Today, I went out of my way to wear old jeans, tee shirts, etc. that I may have owned and worn during the Bush victories of 2000 and 2004. I have even agreed to care not a whit about the relative fortunes of the Tennessee Vols, the Philadelphia Phillies and Eagles. Let, The Gotham Giants and Dallas Cowboys win, let the S.F. Giants win for all I care. It's all cool as long as long as we vote B.O. out of office thus preventing him from suspending 2016 elections due to economic crisis, and setting up the first shogunate in the history of our republic.
ReplyDeleteTennessee Jed, and let's give B.H.O. "The Chair"! Give the empty seat he leaves behind to someone who deserves it.
ReplyDeleteI donned my Don't Tread on Me Gadsden t-shirt and affixed my "I Voted" sticker over my heart after casting my vote. My boy's school is a polling place, the line was not huge, but out the door. The parking lot was crazier than normal. My polling place was busy, but not overwhelmingly so. More than in 2010 though, so good signs I think.
ReplyDelete"Shogunate" = derogatory comments about Asian people! Jed is a RACIST!!!!!
ReplyDeleteIt took me an hour to vote this morning. I don't think it took me 20 min. in '08. And in '10, I was in and out without waiting. I happen to live in a precinct (or whatever) that hasn't been gerrymandered over to a single party, so I saw a fair mix of bumper stickers in the polling place parking lot. Is it wrong that I don't ever want to move just because I get to vote in the VFW Hall?
ReplyDeleteI live in a mostly black area of a mostly blue state, so I've got no relevant stories to tell, but I feel Romney is going to win.
ReplyDeleteFour more years of Obama may worry some people (okay, roughly half the population) less than four years of Romney, but that isn't a prospect that gets even many Democrats excited whereas four years of anyone but Obama gets a lot of Republicans and independents excited.
Anyone else nervous Romney is campaigning in Ohio, today?
ReplyDeleteAnd BTW, an election day guessing game: As I'm sure everyone knows, each party is allowed one poll watcher per polling place. Where I live, they are identifiable by a prominent badge (sticker) that they must wear.
ReplyDeleteOne was a burly former Marine with "OOO-RAH" tattooed on one forearm and "SEMPER FI" on the other. The other was a scrawny, shaggy-haired hipster looking dude that sorta resembled a homeless Andre 3000.
Guess which party each was watching for. LOL!
Kit, not really. Under different circumstances, it might be seen as desperation, but that's not the case here. Note, too, that he's going to Cleveland, which I read more as enemy turf-stomping than anything else. He's also going to be in Pittsburgh, if I remember correctly.
ReplyDeleteTryanmax, no brainer there!
ReplyDeleteIf things totally go our way across the board, besides the usual stuff, I'd like to see the MSM disabled to the point that they never recover.
Remember Chik-Fil-A!!!!
ReplyDeleteRemember all those long lines? Remember the MSM wouldn't cover it? Remember how many people were surprised at the depth of support Chik-Fil-A received?
This is just Chik-Fil-A expanded all across this nation. That is just a gut instinct.
I'm eating lunch at chik-fil-a! Om nom nom.
ReplyDeleteMmmm... Chik-fil-a!!
ReplyDeleteI'm listing to a radio station in western PA, and, FWIW, they are reporting huge lines in precincts out in the countryside, but the precincts in town are basically walk-right-in. That's a good sign!
Crispy, by "in town" do you mean Pittsburgh? Because if so, awesome.
ReplyDeleteDo it for Payton!
ReplyDeleteTam, you made me start thinking abou going for some Chik-Fil-A, so I did a search and, unfortunately, there's not a restaurant within 70 miles of here. Drat.
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, I'll have a double helping and think of you!
ReplyDeleteT-rav, yup! It's a local Pittsburgh show I was listening to. One caller said there were "100" people in line out in the county, and all of them were Romney fans and talking about how important this election was. The caller from in town said he walked right and there was no one else there.
ReplyDeleteMmm, Chick-fil-A. Good idea! We just had two open up in Omaha in the last week! It'll have to wait for dinner, though. Neither is very close to where I work. (Or live for that matter.)
ReplyDeleteI have not voted yet. The line was 2 blocks long to get into my polling place today. I have never had to wait there at all. I live in the most Republican of Manhattan districts, but that is not saying much. I have opted to go this afternoon after my dental appointment. Let's hope nothing happens between now and then that prevents me from voting...B-\
ReplyDeleteThanks Tam! :-)
ReplyDeleteI'm just doing my part. 70 miles is a long way to go for chikin, I'd hate for you to be left out!
ReplyDeleteBy the way, does anyone else notice that refreshing your computer screen 100 times a minute DOES NOT make results come in?
Long day. Loooong day.
Tam, I've noticed that too. The refresh button sadly doesn't help. :(
ReplyDeleteCrispy, I hope so!
ReplyDeletetryanmax, Talk about a lot of references! Chik-fil-A... a homeless Andre 3000. What's next?
ReplyDeleteBev, Have you heard anything about turnout in the democratic parts of the city?
ReplyDeleteAnthony, What about you? How is turnout today?
I've been trying to gauge turnout. Mostly, what I'm reading from Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania and maybe Michigan looks promising. Long lines, sometimes an hour or more's wait, in the deep red areas, low turnout in the Democratic areas. Minnesota is showing some heavy DFL turnout so that may be out of play, unless there's a massive rural effort I'm missing.
ReplyDeleteAndrew, I'll tell you what's next: a Big F*in' Deal! That's what! LOL!
ReplyDeleteI'm in high spirits today! And even if things go south, I'll at least be in spirits!
tryanmax, Is that shorthand for "booze satisfies"? ;)
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, It could also be a question of people just being at work in the cities right now, but I hope what you're hearing is right.
Here's some data from Pasco County, Florida, which I believe is in the Tampa area. The day's only half over, so this can/will change, but the county's party ID registration is 35D/38R/27I. Vote breakdown (counting early and absentee ballots) as of 1:00 EST: 31D/46R/23I.
ReplyDeleteAlso, via NRO's Jim Geraghty: Voting lines in Wisconsin's GOP strongholds of Washington, Ozaukee, Waukesha counties reported to be longer than for the Walker recall vote.
ReplyDeleteThere was line this morning - but that's just because they computerized the process of looking us up (either photo ID or registration card) and the poll ladies were still in their learning curve... Nearly everyone else I know early voted.
ReplyDeleteI'm in Midland County. I think the city limits sign still has "Bush Country" on it. I know we still have the "Home of..." signs. So, yeah, GOP!
Looks like Ted Cruz is going to win big too.
Trying to keep pushing to 1,000, and realizing predictions ar not results, here is my boyhood friend's prediction at the Aquidneck Inquirer. Romney 295. I would prefer 300+, but will take 295:
ReplyDeletehttp://aquidneckinquirer.typepad.com/aquidneck_inquirer/2012/11/2012-presidential-election-interactive-map.html
Andrew,
ReplyDeleteI early voted last week and I left for work before voting booths even opened, so unfortunately I don't know what today's turnout is like.
I early voted last Saturday and it was a two hour wait. I am told that in Florida they expect every day to be that packed around the clock. Course we had some 14 amendments to read through and since they were on Obamacare and property taxes you had to take the time to decipher the legaleeze.
ReplyDeletelast presidential election the line was hours long. today i didn't see a line. interestingly, the polling place is across from a section-8 compound and people streamed over to vote for barry (they were vocal). this year, nada.
ReplyDelete~supporting tmax in a drank...or two...and tam: give your husband a voter's high-five from my household!)
Like Anthony, I voted two weeks ago. I live in a deep scarlet red state in a precinct full of R's. We all vote . . . every election, so I'm sure our turnout is strong. The outcome for just about all of our races is pre-determined, red.
ReplyDeleteFile under The Weirdly Freaky: i was changing channels on my tv and i ended up on fox. listened for two minutes or so, then had my fill. tried to turn off tv. no can do. short of unplugging the beast i'm there until the powers release me.
ReplyDeleteDid anybody see what Linda McMahon is doing in Connecticut? She's go campaign workers in t-shirts that look like SEIU shirts and they are encouraging Obama people to vote for her and Obama. Very clever. I hope it works. Needless to say, the SEIU is furious. What a crying shame...
ReplyDeleteWhen I early voted I waited for 3 and a half hours. Some of the people who had just voted stated they had waited for five (when I was in line, new machines were brought in).
ReplyDeleteAccording to a Washington Times article I found early voting in PG is marginally higher than it was in 2008.
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While residents say they have gauged heightened interest in this year’s election, county Board of Elections officials said they expect participation to be on par with 2008’s record turnout, when 76 percent of the county’s registered voters cast ballots.
About 12.3 percent of county voters cast ballots during last week’s early voting, exceeding the statewide rate of 11.7 percent.
Read more: P.G. key in votes on Maryland ballot questions - Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/nov/5/pg-key-in-votes-on-maryland-ballot-questions/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS#ixzz2BTHcchsf
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter
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According to the article below it sounds like today's turnout is also exceeding 2008.
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http://www.gazette.net/article/20121106/NEWS/711069971/1029/prince-george-s-voter-turnout-exceeds-early-2008-numbers&template=gazette
Barely an hour after polls opened at the school, the facility already had 200 people vote and had more than 150 waiting, said Peter Mike, chief election judge at the polling station.
"I got here at 5:30 a.m. this morning and there were people already lined up," he said. "This is actually bigger than 2008 [in voter turnout]."
At nearby Kettering Baptist Church, dozens of people lined up outside the polling place while politicians ranging from Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) to County Executive Rushern L. Baker III (D) greeted voters.
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*Shrugs* While I don't doubt 9 out of 10 are Obama supporters, question 6 and 7 (gay marriage and casinos) are probably boosting turnout. So PG might not be represenative of the Democrats and/or the black community as a whole.
This just in
ReplyDeleteDemocrats are able to sway Senior Citizens.
A man who voted Republican all his life has since his death in the year 2000 consitantly voted a straight Democratic ticket ever since. The RNC just does not have the advantage in the "groud" game.
Article by Six Feet Under Polling associates.
Jed, I think the most interesting part of that is there is apparently a town called Aquidneck. :-)
ReplyDeleteAndrew, I find it a bit galling that she's saying to vote for her and Obama, but the state's going blue regardless, so whatever works, I guess. (sigh)
ReplyDeleteRav - That may be. In this case, Aquidneck is the name of the large island in the state of Rhode Island which is where the town of Newport is located and home to Brown University which he attended. The Inquirer part, I believe, comes from the Philadelphia Inquirer since we both grew up on Philadelphia's main line. Nevertheless, I'm glad he thinks Romney will win.
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, I see your point, but in this case I think it makes sense. Connecticut won't be voting for Romney, so why not latch onto as many liberal ticket-splitters as you can. Hopefully, it will put her in the Senate.
ReplyDeleteAnthony, I would think the gay marriage thing will bring out a lot of people. I know the gay lobby thinks this could be the first time they win -- they're apparently 0-32 at the ballot box so far, but I have my doubts.
ReplyDeleteAndrew, I sometimes wonder if there isn't a Bradley effect going on with the gay marriage vote--it's so often considered "right" to support it, a lot of people say they do when they really don't. Merely a theory, but it would explain why the proposals have been consistently defeated up to now.
ReplyDeleteSince I don't want to research it and we want 1K posts here, What is the "Bradley effect"? I heard it mentioned somewhere else this morning. I understand what it means in context, but where did it come from?
ReplyDeleteIncidentally, according to the CO Secretary of State's office, Republicans beat Democrats in early voting. Someone tried to plug these numbers into the overall breakdown and came up with a three- or four-point margin of victory for Romney in the state. Here's hoping.
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, I think there almost has to be. How else could it keep losing so handily, even in liberal states?
ReplyDeleterlaWTX, the Bradley effect is the term used by pollsters to describe when their polls show one thing, but voters do another. It's based on the 1982 race for Governor in California, where exit polls showed black LA Mayor Tom Bradley winning the governor race fairly easily. But then he lost. And they blamed it on the people who were polled telling the pollsters what was politically correct, while actually voting the way they really thought.
T-Rav, I'm confident Romney wins Colorado. It's the rust belt that worries me.
ReplyDeleteOnly 88 comments? I wish I had something interesting to say. I voted with mail-in ballot and dropped it off at the local precinct last week. Check online Sunday to make sure both mine and my wife's ballot was received. Like I'm going to trust the USPS.
ReplyDeleterla, I don't exactly know its origins. I think it was named after the political scientist or whoever who proposed/discovered it. But I believe it was first applied to racial demographics and voting, saying that since civil rights, the idea has entered people's heads (especially white people's) that they should be color-blind in casting their votes, and they're afraid of social consequences if they behave otherwise. But because a lot of them actually are prejudiced, they tell pollsters that they'll vote for the black guy, when they actually won't.
ReplyDeleteIn that specific application of it, I don't think it amounts to a whole lot, but I do think it's a good example of why polling is often so unreliable.
Koshcat, I love voting by mail. It's easy and very satisfying. :)
ReplyDeleteI spent FIVE WHOLE MINUTES typing out that answer and you beat me to it??? Fine!
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, I'm not too worried about Colorado either. I'm also more confident about Ohio than I was earlier, but it's still a nail-biter for me.
T-Rav, See my explanation above. And you're right, it's mainly been used to explain why blacks poll better than they do on election day. BUT... it's application is much broader. In fact, in Britain, it's called "Shy Tory Effect" because the Brits don't like to identify themselves as conservatives.
ReplyDeleteBill Cunningham was just on Hannity's radio show and he says the turnout in the red areas of OH is overwhelming. He just spoke with a polling district guy who said the suburbs around Cleveland (red) have had 75% to 80% turnout. He then went into numbers about how much O won back in '08, and he claims there is no chance for O to take OH with this sort of turnout.
ReplyDeleteOh please oh please oh please oh please...
"Shy Tory" I like that. It sounds cuddly.
ReplyDeleteCrispy, I sure hope so! Turnout will decide this election.
ReplyDelete// fingers crossed
Crispy, it's getting hard to type with my fingers crossed!
ReplyDeletetryanmax, LOL! It does sound cuddly, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteThank you, Andrew.
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, you get a shiny participation trophy.
Interestingly, "Shy Tory" also describes how they govern when they get into office.
ReplyDeleteThanks, rla. I feel so appreciated now. (sarc)
ReplyDeleteIncidentally, I typed this comment with my fingers crossed. (Really hard to reach the Shift key.)
To make it easier to type, I'm going to uncross my fingers and go back to drinking.
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, Yeah, not exactly inspirational are they? But what do you expect from a small failing country.
ReplyDeleteI've got my boxo wine and am ready for the returns. I'm trying to reverse psych myself by saying it will be okay if O wins....but I am hoping and praying that Romney produces a smackdown of epic proportions!
ReplyDeleteI just don't trust the dems when it comes to voting. Oh yeah...did you hear the UN observers are incredulous that the USA does not require voter ID's?!
Patriot, So either we can be seen as racist for requiring ID or we can be seen as vote-frauding racists for not requiring ID? Hmm. Maybe we should just bite the bullet and require ID? Ya think?
ReplyDeleteREPORT FROM THE FRONT LINES: Wow! The line to vote is even longer 8 hour ago!
ReplyDeleteAs an update to my earlier post, the GOP lead in Pasco Co. FL is still holding strong at 35D/43R/22I, still well above typical party ID.
ReplyDeleteThe sense I'm getting on Twitter is that Ohio is now expected by some people following it to go red, and maybe sooner than expected.
Andrew.....Either way, we're racists. I loved it when Texas said if any UN poll watchers showed up they were going to arrest them! "Don't Mess With Texas!"
ReplyDeleteBev, Are you in the Republican block/building of New York City or are you in the Democratic ares?
ReplyDeleteAny word on other Democratic areas?
"Way to go Bloomie!" Can't wait to vote for big government now!
ReplyDeleteBev, you said you had a dentist appt first, right? did you get any of the meds that makes you not mind long lines??
ReplyDeleteDamn straight, Patriot!
T-Rav, How representative is that area? Any idea?
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to get excited by the way. I know to wait until 6-7 to hear about true turnout, but it sounds like it's going well for the Republicans!
Patriot, Yep. Plus, I gotta tell you, I've been talking to people overseas lately and they don't have a clue about our country and they aren't willing to learn either.... prejudiced to the core.
ReplyDeleteOver the 100 mark and 1 tenth of the way there. we aren't even to the evening new hour
ReplyDeleteAndrew, doncha know that only the US is ignorant of the world??!! All other nationalities are open-minded, culturally aware sophisticates!!!
ReplyDeleteOoh, dentist. That reminds me. I think I have some leftover hydrocodone if things get really rough. It doesn't really dull the pain. It just makes it so you don't care. Ya-a-a-ay Narcotics!
ReplyDeleteEvery report from the ground suggests high Republican turnout and low democrat turnout. It's looking good and I can't wait for 7:00 ET when we start seeing real results. My hope and dream is for a massive Romney win so that recounts and lawsuits are pointless.
ReplyDeleteI. CAN'T. WAIT. to watch O's concession speech. Hee hee hee hee hee.
rlaWTX, wait. There's more to the world than the US? I just thought all those other countries were just territories we hadn't granted statehood to yet. :-P
ReplyDeletenot fair, tryanmax! what happened to from the medicine cabinets of the medicated to the medicine cabinets of those in pain? Marx/Engels will be so sad!
ReplyDeleteTodd Akin might still win:
ReplyDeleteBuzzfeed LINK
OH - that's where TOTUS got the 57 states!
ReplyDeleteAndrew...."Folks" (to use O's favorite term) overseas get their info on America from the usual suspects...NYT, WAPO, UN reports, etc. Similar to what I used to think of California in my youth. CA was all one big beach with cool cars and beautiful people. Doesn't mesh with reality. Many still think that the interior of the continent, away from the big cities, is teeming with either "Deliverance" type rednecks, Bible thumping snake-handlers or cowboys. They really have no clue what makes this country unique...and dare I say it...Exceptional
ReplyDeleterlaWTX, I have to tell you, I've been ready to punch some of these people. Truly arrogant people who want to think that we're the arrogant ones. Don't get me started...
ReplyDelete"Every report from the ground suggests high Republican turnout and low democrat turnout. It's looking good and I can't wait for 7:00 ET when we start seeing real results."
ReplyDeleteAny links?
Patriot, What I find amazing is both how arrogant these people are about their opinions about our country and how truly uninformed they are plus how unwilling they are to be informed. When I try to explain to them what they don't know, they genuinely don't want to hear it because they don't want to have to re"think" their view.
ReplyDeleteIt really makes me glad that I'm an American because we aren't so stuck in what we've been told that we will ignore facts that contradict our view (unless we're liberals).
Andrew, like I said, it's Tampa area and, I think, part of the critical I-4 corridor. It went for McCain in '08, but by a much smaller margin than what the current totals indicate. On the Atlantic side of the state, Volusia County recorded a 15-point swing in early voters toward the GOP.
ReplyDeleteI'm from Texas, so I own an oil well and a horse!!! yeehaw!
ReplyDeletetryanmax, Trust me, we don't want these countries joining us. They are welfare cases in the midst of a slow motion train wreck. China I would take... Australia... but forget the rest.
ReplyDeleteIncidentally, in Colorado, NRO reports that Adams County (don't know anything about it) is on track to go Republican for the first time since 1984. Hmmmmm....
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, So they are seeing similar swings in multiple parts of Florida?
ReplyDeleteAndrew, can we take New Zealand? I don't know what their politics are like, but it's beautiful there.
ReplyDeleteAndrew...Exactly...My significant other is Dutch, and when she makes observations about the good ole USofA that come from her Dutch perspective, it is always enjoyable to watch her become aware when I explain to her the reality that NOT ALL Americans are like that!! But it's fun scolding her and then making up afterwards :)
ReplyDeleterla, I've been to Germany, I have heard their techno music. Superior sophisticates my....
ReplyDeleteLook on Twitchy...they have a bunch of people reporting with pictures of lines at polling places. http://twitchy.com/2012/11/06/pics-fired-up-voters-report-long-lines-in-gop-heavy-areas/ (I'm tech retarded...can't make a link. Or I'm an old dog and that's a new trick...)Ace of Spades has a few posts about turnout http://ace.mu.nu/ People are reporting their experiences in the comments. I've also been listening to Rush and Glenn Beck (I know...) but citizens are calling in after having voted saying lines are either long (R) or short (D) compared to '08. Not entirely reliable I guess, these are "our" people after all, but still encouraging.
ReplyDeleteSorry Kit, it's not official reporting, what I've been hearing. That's why I can't wait for 7:00 to see REAL results coming in.
tryanmax, I wouldn't. New Zealand is undeniably pretty, but it's also traditionally left-wing. Plus, I think they've got a severe guilt complex over that whole conquest of the Maori thing, and if there's one thing we don't need, it's another group of people with a guilt complex.
ReplyDeleteYeah, NZ is not on my list of places to that contribute to the world.
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, Aaaaaawwww! What if we gave away California and Minnesota?
ReplyDeleteTam, here you go. LINK
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, I've just stood in line behind them at various times, and from the general aroma, I'd agree with your take...
ReplyDeleteAussies have got the same issues we do, just further along the track. But the ones I know are pretty put out with the lib leadership...
Patriot, What's shocking are the ones who've visited the US and even have family here and yet are entirely ignorant of this country -- from small details to large ones. It's almost scary to see how effective propaganda can be on sheeple.
ReplyDeleteI got back about 45 minutes ago, and had to wait maybe 15 minutes--don't live in a very populated area. The polling place was moved for the primary, and it makes it much easier than voting at an elementary school. They also combined precincts, and doubled the voting stations.
ReplyDeleteOff to tutor a young mind...then back home to DRINK! I love America.
ReplyDeleterlaWTX, The Aussies I know actually use their brains to think independently and they have drive to achieve something. I respect that. By comparison, the Brits and Germans I know are sheep who do what they are told and have no independent drive whatsoever. They are drones, nothing more.
ReplyDeletegotta go to school... Be back later...
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, thanks! There was an Ace of Spades url in there too...they are updating their turnout thread. CO is looking good!
ReplyDeleteAndrew......Are you going to be "drunk-blogging" this election results!? Anyone else here?
ReplyDeleteLet me see if this works.
ReplyDeleteTry again
ReplyDeletePatriot, That depends on how things work out tonight. Right now I'm thinking "high on life" but we'll see. ;)
ReplyDeleteAwesome! It only took me about 2 years following this blog to get a picture to show up.
ReplyDeleteKoshcat, Excellent! "Who are you... what do you want?" :)
ReplyDeleteKoshcat...How did you get a pic up? I've been trying forever!!
ReplyDeleteFor those wondering about Pennsylvania, I'm trying to track the Philly suburbs, which will probably decide how the state goes. It's kind of hard to tell; turnout seems down (which is good since they're generally blue), but there's no real read on which way things are going. That will probably take a while, especially if Philly itself continues being corrupt and all. But if you have a results map with you, keep an eye on Montgomery County. If Obama loses that one, or even just barely wins it, it will be time for a three-alarm panic in Chicago.
ReplyDeleteI made a google account which I think allowed me to make a blogger account. I then edited my blogger profile and added a picture I had put on my desk top. Not sure if it was the most efficient but I was basically doing it by trial and error.
ReplyDeleteKoshcat, why is your sombrero wearing a purple robe?
ReplyDeleteT-Rav....Having lived in Bucks County, just north of Montco, if they go red I'd be surprised. Remember, this is where Abbie Hoffman (Yippie!) went to ground and died. Tres liberal.....!!
ReplyDeleteIf you click on the little white ?B in the orange field you get taken to another screen where you can edit your account.
ReplyDeleteSadly, my dental work did not require heavy sedation...:-( but there's a bottle of vodka with my name on it. Hey, wasn't Writer X making martinis?
ReplyDeleteBev...Any word from Queens, Staten Island, the Rockaways?
ReplyDeleteKoshcat...IT WORKED!!! Thanks much!
ReplyDeletePatriot, I don't think Montco will go red, but Bucks County very well might, and that could prove decisive.
ReplyDeleteNews from Iowa: Republicans overperforming in 75 of 99 counties, improving 2004 numbers by 3 points plus. Turnout in NW Iowa in particular said to be explosive.
ReplyDeletePatriot - where in Bucks did you live? When I first got married, I lived in Warminster, and my first house was in Newtown. Montco has gradually become reliably blue, but remember they did kick former news anchor and Clinton pal Marjorie Margolies Meshvinsky out.
ReplyDelete(That's the most Republican part of the state, for the record.)
ReplyDeleteTJ.....Lived in Mechanicsville / Doylestown area...loved it. An early ancestor settled in Newtown....great little town. In fact, much of the movie "Signs" was filmed in Newtown. Wish I was still up there...!
ReplyDeleteOkay, Jed and Patriot, a question: If you're familiar with Bucks County, can you say whether the northern or southern part of the county is more liberal? Because the GOP is now saying they're seeing very high turnout in northern Bucks.
ReplyDeletePatriot, it is going to be hard to determine. Gov. Cuomo signed a directive allowing open voting at any polling place. That may account for the long lines at mine, though i doubt it.
ReplyDeleteNorthern Bucks....Quakertown area...is much more rural and conservative. Southern Bucks, Newtown and towards 95 and the Del River, is quite liberal. Many NYC high finance types live and commute from there into the city.
ReplyDeleteMmmm. That was what I was expecting, just based on geography. Let's hope the northern voters pull the rest of the county over the line.
ReplyDeleteCentral Bucks, where I lived, was an interesting mix of north and south bucks county. Both conservative and liberal. The singer Pink came from Doylestown as did Justin Guarini from the first American Idol.
ReplyDeleteFor the record, I'm now hearing from local bloggers that Missouri turnout may hit all of 80 percent, which is huge. If that holds, and Romney wins by the margins I think he will, I think he may pull Akin over with him.
ReplyDeleteRav - Patriot is correct about the split, though it has been almost 25 years since I lived there. Made a ton on my house at the time because as Patriot pointed out, all the river communities around Trenton had become Amtrack bedroom neighborhoods for Gotham City and they were driving the price up. I have heard the Democrat internals have them very worried about Pennsylvania.
ReplyDeleteIf.... IF.... IF everything I'm hearing is right, we are looking a route in the making based on huge Republican turnout and slightly depressed Democratic turnout.
ReplyDeleteThis could be a heck of a night in the making.
Andrew....To quote the Colour Sergeant in "Zulu"...."Wait for it"........
ReplyDeletePatriot, Excellent movie and sound advice, but I'm starting to see trends... and even better, no counter-trend.
ReplyDeleteYes...BUT......As Stalin said....."It doesn't matter what the vote is. It matters who COUNTS the vote"
ReplyDeleteAndrew, if either Gallup or Rasmussen are correct, I would agree. Both are saying Republicans will outnumber Democrats on Election Day (I'm talking party identification, not who they're voting for), and that has not happened once in the 76 years Gallup has been tracking these figures.
ReplyDeletePatriot, I think I was in Doylestown once, or at least through it maybe. We went to see the Washington's Crossing site, which I think is near there.
ReplyDeleteI have to say, I didn't care for the Philly suburbs much. I'm not sure why; but I did cross the river and spend the night in Trenton, and I think that experience tends to ratchet down one's opinion of the entire region.
Aaaannnddd...the polls are now closing in the Eastern Time Zone portions of Indiana and Kentucky. IT'S TIME.
ReplyDeleteT-Rav.......Dude....If anyone from that area of PA heard you comparing them to TRENTON(!!!) for gawd's sake, you wouldn't make it out of their alive. Not that you'd be likely to make it out of Trenton alive if you go through certain areas at night!!
ReplyDeleteAnd Washington Crossing is just up the river from Trenton...on the PA side. Lovely area...Trenton, not so nice.
All of the exit poll data Fox is using (which I understand is pooled data) seems to indicate Romney 51% and Obama 48%.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly, in Ohio, unions only voted for Obama 60% to 37%. That seems low to me.
Hey, I'm not saying that! I'm just saying ending the day in Trenton left a bad taste in my mouth. Seriously, what an awful city.
ReplyDeleteDrudge: "Exit Poll Boom for O"
ReplyDeleteT-Rav......Trenton really is an awful city. I had to use the Trenton train station whenever I had business in NYC. Always hated it.
ReplyDeleteHad an office in Princeton NJ, which is actually pretty close to Trenton, and you could not find a more disparate example of a trashy city (Trenton) and a historically beautiful city (Princeton).
Kit.......Don't believe it... (Bradley Effect in action)
ReplyDeleteWhen are people allowed to start reporting results? I know polls are closing in some places, do they have to wait until CA polls close to start reporting results? HOW LONG MUST MY ANXIETY GO ON???
ReplyDeleteKit, exit polls are notoriously bad and should be ignored until the demographic breakdowns arrive.
ReplyDeleteSome good Exit Poll News:
ReplyDeleteNRO Jim Geraghty
"When are people allowed to start reporting results? I know polls are closing in some places, do they have to wait until CA polls close to start reporting results? HOW LONG MUST MY ANXIETY GO ON???"
ReplyDeleteFirst polls close at 7.
Tam, the first polls should start rolling in at the top of the hour. That's when you'll start getting states that have completely closed. I promise you won't have to wait that long. :-)
ReplyDelete7 EST, 40 min left.
ReplyDeleteBreathe, Tam...breathe.
ReplyDeleteAnother shot Tam.....another shot
ReplyDeleteStay calm Tam. It will be over soon. Either we win and the country goes back on track or we lose and America blows up in a euro-gasmic ball of dependence and self-righteous incompetence.
ReplyDelete... no pressure.
Andrew,
ReplyDeleteThat is mean.
Not our fault. We voted.
ReplyDeleteJoel, I kid... I kid.... kind of. :(
ReplyDeleteI've been hoping, wishing, praying for and visualizing 8 years of Romney followed by 8 years of Ryan then 8 years of Rubio. It's gonna be a good 24 years, amiright?
ReplyDeleteMaybe that last shot (hic) was one too many?