Rubio's Victory

I thought it was time for an immigration update. More specifically, I think it’s time to talk about Marco Rubio. Rubio has impressed the heck out of me in this process. He has achieved the unachievable and he’s done it with seeming ease. He has proven to be a master politician, who can control both the process, the media and the public.

Let’s start with the obvious: the immigration issue is the third rail of modern politics. No one has managed to get any traction on this and those who have tried have been destroyed. Yet, Rubio is succeeding. And not only that, he’s succeeding beyond anything anyone could have expected.

For one thing, Rubio has managed to create a bill that has broad support on the left and the right. I know some people don’t want to believe that, but it’s true. Conservative support for this is both deep and wide. The latest “RINO” to jump on board is Tea Party darling Sen. Kelly Ayotte. She joins other RINOs like Paul Ryan, Jeff Flake, Sean Hannity, the American Conservative Union, CATO, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the Susan B. Anthony List, the Manhattan Institute, the Hudson Institute, Paul Wolfowitz, Arthur Laffer, Grover Norquist, Linda Chavez, and on and on and on. The RINO Southern Baptists are apparently lobbying for the bill.

Others like Rand Paul are posturing, but clearly intend to support the bill after claiming to make it better. RINOs Tom Coburn and Rob Portman appear ready to support the bill as well with some minor tweaks. RINO John Cornyn might too if the border security provision are tightened up. RINO Pat Toomey also is considered a likely supporter as he has expressed support for reform generally but has yet to say if he supports this bill.

Ultimately, this bill will pass. Rubio has set a target of getting 70 votes in the Senate and there is a fair chance he will get that. The House will be closer, but I expect it will pass by at least 25 votes, though the number could be much higher.

This is an impressive achievement.

Even more impressively, Rubio has kept the publicity positive and focused on the GOP’s support. This is a real trick. For one thing, this is the kind of bill the Democrats need to take the credit for if they want to keep getting Hispanic votes, and the MSM knows this. Obama in particular needs some better legacy than “he ruined healthcare and spied on us,” so one would assume he would take credit for this. Yet, Rubio has entirely shut Obama out of the process by creating the Gang of 8. They have actually rebuffed White House efforts to get involved and have refused to meet with Obama for photo-ops on this. Consequently, his name never comes up in relation to this.

Moreover, Rubio has made himself the salesman of this bill to such a degree that few even know who the other seven are or that there are others. He is selling this thing everywhere and the MSM even calls it “Rubio’s bill” or refers to him as “the architect.” Unless something truly unusual happens, it appears almost certain that the credit for this will fall in Rubio’s lap. That is really good news for fixing some of the GOP’s tolerance problem because it means this will be seen as a Republican initiative.

More impressively yet, Rubio has kept the publicity on this positive despite the best efforts of talk radio. Throughout this process, Rubio has faced a series of lies, more lies, smears and childish taunts from his conservative flank (naive, nuts -- arrest Rubio as an enemy combatant -- liar, clueless -- Rubio’s folly, etc.). Rubio’s handling of these people has been a tour de force of public relations. He has engaged them by going on talk radio, writing articles and meeting with prominent conservative opponents. He has done so with a smile and by sticking to the facts. Then he has reported on the meetings as positive and constructive even as the various hosts went right back to their tantrums. Did this win them over? No, but that was never the point because they’re unwinnable. The real point was public perception and, in that regard, the end result has been that the MSM has focused on Rubio’s positive assessments rather than the nasty things being said by the talkers, with the result of that being that Rubio has managed to shield conservatism from what is not its finest hour. In fact, outside of the conservative echo chamber, you just don’t hear the things these people are saying.

The bill has now entered the next phase of the process and, again, Rubio has shined. As with any legislation, the initial bill wasn’t perfect. It actually addressed all the things conservatives have always claimed to want from immigration reform, but the border security issue was viewed as insufficient. Rubio has now said that he believes the border security provision needs to be amended and he has proposed that Congress, not the President, vote to certify that the border is secure. I doubt that will pass, but his criticism will likely result in a stronger enforcement mechanism, which should win over the last few rational holdouts.

There are several aspect of this that are interesting. First, Rubio has managed to kill off all the attempts to add poison pills to the bill – everything from impossible requirements to pro-gay amendments. Being able to stop those things is unusual, but the process set up with the Gang of 8 has given them the power to do that. That is what made this possible. It also resulted in an amazingly pork-free bill. Secondly, Rubio has made himself so important to the process that his suggestion that he couldn’t support the bill without stronger border security was enough to shake everyone up -- and he’s the only with that level of power. That’s pretty impressive and it shows a level of control that one would never expect from a junior Senator.

All in all, I am honestly amazed. Rubio tackled what is probably the hardest issue in the Congress and he has produced a bill that objectively addresses all the concerns conservatives have always cited and he has managed to find broad-based support for that bill across the political spectrum. That is an achievement that should not be underestimated. At the same time, he has kept the publicity extremely positive, despite a vehement, irrational opposition from his own flank and an MSM that knee-jerk seeks to help the Democrats. Again, that is truly an impressive achievement.

Right now, it looks like this thing will pass with overwhelming support and with his name on it. If that happens, I genuinely suspect that he will be our next president.