"Trickle-down economics." "Voodoo economics." "Reaganomics." Ooh, I'm getting a chill down my spine. I am referring, of course, to the poorly understood and very maligned idea that is "supply-side economics," with a title much newer than the idea itself. What is it, and why do liberals say it doesn't work? Let's discuss.
What we call supply-side only got its name in the '70s, thanks to some of Nixon's economic people, and frankly, that alone should be reason to look for a new title. But it has a long pedigree, going back to Adam Smith and other greats of the time. It's not so much a philosophy of the size of government as a question of how to get the most bang for your (literal) buck where state revenue is concerned. And it is a simple idea, really: Very low taxes may not bring in a sufficient amount of revenue, but high taxes strangle the productive capacity of taxpayers, causing them to earn less income, therefore they pay fewer taxes, therefore the government gets less revenue as well. The trick is to find an optimum tax rate at which citizens earn the most income and pay the most taxes. In twentieth-century circumstances, that generally means tax cuts, especially on the most productive members of society--the rich.
There have been lots of criticisms of this idea, some of them rather sophisticated and pointed, admittedly. All too often, though, especially when voiced by partisan leftists, such critique devolves into "tax cuts for the rich," "Republicans looking out for their fellow fat cats," etc. And also, liberals have claimed that these policies don't work, that they only benefit the wealthy and end up causing economic slumps down the road.
What actually happens when these "unfair" tax cuts go into effect? Let's look at one of the more famous extended examples of this working, those terrible "Roaring Twenties" of the Coolidge presidency.
After a nasty recession in the early '20s, Harding and then Coolidge pushed through, over intense opposition from progressives in Congress, a drastic tax cut. Top rates went down to 25 percent, lower than they have been at any point since. What happened? Well, if you're even passably familiar with 20th-century America, you probably know there wasn't a sudden economic collapse, a bankrupt government, a disintegration of law and order, etc. U.S. GDP grew by 59 percent between 1921 and 1929, and even more importantly, during this same period, annual tax revenue over the same period grew from about $300 billion per year to $700 billion per year.
But the other feature of these 1920s tax cuts is especially worth dwelling on. So top earners, i.e. the rich, saw the greatest reduction in tax rates. That means the rich bore less of the total tax burden under Republicans Harding and Coolidge, right? Well, actually, no. Statistics show that when the first of the 1920s' Revenue Acts was passed, those making over $100,000 paid about one-third of all taxes per year. By decade's end, after all the tax cuts had taken effect, said group paid two-thirds of the total burden. Conversely, while those making over $100,000 saw their average income increase by a healthy 15 percent, those earning between $10,000 and $100,000 saw a whopping 84 percent growth in income. In other words, the farther down the economic ladder one was, the better deal one got from these "tax cuts for the rich." It might be noted further that minorities weren't excluded from this good fortune; black Americans saw a rapid improvement in their standard of living over the decade, until by 1930 their unemployment rate was slightly below that of whites.
Since I mentioned "Reaganomics" as one of the derogatory terms used by critics of supply-side policies, it bears mentioning how things went when similar policies were tried in the '80s. Reagan began his administration with across-the-board tax cuts, provoking the inevitable caterwauling from liberals; once more, the government did not fall apart, but saw a doubling in annual income tax revenue over the course of the '80s. Moreover, the top 1 percent's share of the tax burden rose by 40 percent, despite having their income tax rates lowered from 70 to 28 percent, while the bottom 60 percent saw a 20 percent drop in its share. As in the '20s, there was remarkable growth among the lower and middle classes, with particular expansion among middle-class and small business-owning African-Americans.
That these periods of prosperity were followed by economic downturns in the '30s and early '90s should be taken into account, of course. But by the same token, we cannot and should not ignore the very real economic improvements up and down the ladder that took place after the implementation of supply-side policies. They made a positive difference in America.
But if liberal mockers of supply-side really want a target to unload on, I can give them one just as good as Reagan. Namely, a President who cut the tax rate for top earners from 91 to 70 percent, proportionally a far greater cut than, say, G.W. Bush undertook; a man who argued high taxes caused low revenue and defended tax cuts on capital gains as a means of "obtaining capital and thereby the strength and potential for growth in the economy." His name was John F. Kennedy.
What we call supply-side only got its name in the '70s, thanks to some of Nixon's economic people, and frankly, that alone should be reason to look for a new title. But it has a long pedigree, going back to Adam Smith and other greats of the time. It's not so much a philosophy of the size of government as a question of how to get the most bang for your (literal) buck where state revenue is concerned. And it is a simple idea, really: Very low taxes may not bring in a sufficient amount of revenue, but high taxes strangle the productive capacity of taxpayers, causing them to earn less income, therefore they pay fewer taxes, therefore the government gets less revenue as well. The trick is to find an optimum tax rate at which citizens earn the most income and pay the most taxes. In twentieth-century circumstances, that generally means tax cuts, especially on the most productive members of society--the rich.
There have been lots of criticisms of this idea, some of them rather sophisticated and pointed, admittedly. All too often, though, especially when voiced by partisan leftists, such critique devolves into "tax cuts for the rich," "Republicans looking out for their fellow fat cats," etc. And also, liberals have claimed that these policies don't work, that they only benefit the wealthy and end up causing economic slumps down the road.
What actually happens when these "unfair" tax cuts go into effect? Let's look at one of the more famous extended examples of this working, those terrible "Roaring Twenties" of the Coolidge presidency.
After a nasty recession in the early '20s, Harding and then Coolidge pushed through, over intense opposition from progressives in Congress, a drastic tax cut. Top rates went down to 25 percent, lower than they have been at any point since. What happened? Well, if you're even passably familiar with 20th-century America, you probably know there wasn't a sudden economic collapse, a bankrupt government, a disintegration of law and order, etc. U.S. GDP grew by 59 percent between 1921 and 1929, and even more importantly, during this same period, annual tax revenue over the same period grew from about $300 billion per year to $700 billion per year.
But the other feature of these 1920s tax cuts is especially worth dwelling on. So top earners, i.e. the rich, saw the greatest reduction in tax rates. That means the rich bore less of the total tax burden under Republicans Harding and Coolidge, right? Well, actually, no. Statistics show that when the first of the 1920s' Revenue Acts was passed, those making over $100,000 paid about one-third of all taxes per year. By decade's end, after all the tax cuts had taken effect, said group paid two-thirds of the total burden. Conversely, while those making over $100,000 saw their average income increase by a healthy 15 percent, those earning between $10,000 and $100,000 saw a whopping 84 percent growth in income. In other words, the farther down the economic ladder one was, the better deal one got from these "tax cuts for the rich." It might be noted further that minorities weren't excluded from this good fortune; black Americans saw a rapid improvement in their standard of living over the decade, until by 1930 their unemployment rate was slightly below that of whites.
Since I mentioned "Reaganomics" as one of the derogatory terms used by critics of supply-side policies, it bears mentioning how things went when similar policies were tried in the '80s. Reagan began his administration with across-the-board tax cuts, provoking the inevitable caterwauling from liberals; once more, the government did not fall apart, but saw a doubling in annual income tax revenue over the course of the '80s. Moreover, the top 1 percent's share of the tax burden rose by 40 percent, despite having their income tax rates lowered from 70 to 28 percent, while the bottom 60 percent saw a 20 percent drop in its share. As in the '20s, there was remarkable growth among the lower and middle classes, with particular expansion among middle-class and small business-owning African-Americans.
That these periods of prosperity were followed by economic downturns in the '30s and early '90s should be taken into account, of course. But by the same token, we cannot and should not ignore the very real economic improvements up and down the ladder that took place after the implementation of supply-side policies. They made a positive difference in America.
But if liberal mockers of supply-side really want a target to unload on, I can give them one just as good as Reagan. Namely, a President who cut the tax rate for top earners from 91 to 70 percent, proportionally a far greater cut than, say, G.W. Bush undertook; a man who argued high taxes caused low revenue and defended tax cuts on capital gains as a means of "obtaining capital and thereby the strength and potential for growth in the economy." His name was John F. Kennedy.
T-Rav, You dirty liar! Kennedy never lowered taxes. That's a lie conservatives tell so they can help their rich friends! He didn't want to go into Vietnam either except Richard Nixon tricked him into it!
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, I'm amazed at how you artfully defined the Laffer Curve without even mentioning it! LOL Like you said, many names for the same concept.
ReplyDeletetryanmax, What's funny to me about the whole idea of supply-side, trickle down economics and the Laffer Curve is how completely consistent it is with every facet of human nature...
ReplyDelete... yet liberals pretend that's not true when it comes to economics. When it comes to economics, they impose some bizarro nature that has never existed in humans.
Great post. I love to read good concise essays. Thank you.
ReplyDeletepeople do what they are given incentive to do. The lefties just don't like the idea of greedy capitalists making the money, they prefer the state does it so it can be redistributed more "fairly." As we know, the problem is that the government can only spend what they can gain by taxing. Hmmnn, I think I see the problem. The government, being run by politicians, is mainly interested in retaining power, so they spend more than they actually have. Free market guys have a bit of problem because we have gone overboard on concentrating wealth in fewer and fewer hands. I still contend, the only real way for people to do better is to find a way to get educated and develop skills that make them valued in the world economic system. We can't expect to continue a high standard of living if the majority of our populace can only perform work that is being offered for far less by people with a lower standard of living. We have to develop skilled workers that cannot be easily duplicated elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteJed, The problem with incentives is twofold.
ReplyDeleteFirst, it doesn't guarantee you the result you want. Government fiat, by comparison, provides the illusion that it does.
Secondly, the idea of incentives doesn't work for liberals because incentives are ingrained in human nature and automatically prevents people from accepting their ideas which are premised on abandoning self-interest in the name of ideology. So acknowledging incentives is a dangerous thing for them because it undermines their entire worldview.
If liberal economists were farmers, they'd uproot the food crops for compost to spread on petunias. They would then give away free bags of compost as an incentive to eat petunias.
ReplyDeleteAnd they would lament that the rich have too much compost.
ReplyDeleteTMax petunias implies things will still be growing after the libs take up farming. They would dump salt on the fields, and say how good it is to have some salt with your dirt.
ReplyDeleteWhile they eat the petunias, and blame it all on the skeletons(the first people who starved to death)in the corner.
Good article T-Rav.
... yet liberals pretend that's not true when it comes to economics.
ReplyDeleteYep, but it seems to be a winner for them, doesn't it?
Probably because their strategy is to put together a set of constituencies which consists in large part of people stupid enough to think the government could just give everyone a comfortable living wage.
Sorry for being a little late, all; the power went out at our house this morning and then we spent another hour or so working on the phones. Such is life.
ReplyDeleteAndrew, did you know JFK was also totally faithful to his wife and never cheated on her with Marilyn Monroe or anyone else? Oh, those right-wing nut jobs.....:-)
ReplyDeletetryanmax, that's just what I do. ;-)
ReplyDeleteReally, though, it is a very old idea, one that even predates Adam Smith in some respects. I thought about throwing around "Laffer Curve" and other terms like that, but I didn't want to totally wonk out. I do that sometimes.
My pleasure, Kosh! I credit it to years and years of being obliged to answer exam questions in five-paragraph essay format.
ReplyDeleteT-Rav - You are wrong. Just plain wrong. I would tell you just HOW you are so very wrong, but I don't have to. Just suffice it to say, you are wrong. Now give me all of your money...
ReplyDeleteI really hate it when rich people work hard and earn lots of money. They always pay slave wages and never share...and don't pay taxes anyway so it does not matter HOW much or how little they are supposed to pay. They hide it ALL in illegal off-shore accounts that only rich Republicans know about. Even though they may be legal in the US Tax Code written by many including Charles "I Don't Pay My Taxes 'Cause I Don't Have To" Rangel.
I hate rich people...they're mean.
BTW, it wasn't Kennedy who cheated on Jackie, it was the drugs he had to take for his Addison's Disease. Of course that similar excuse (different root causes, of course) probably has been used to dismiss every "crime" in every generation of the Kennedy clan - rapes, murders, addictions, divorces, phalanderings, suicides, etc.
ReplyDeleteBut we digress...
Bev, I demand a wrongness rating, preferably on a scale of 1 to 10....
ReplyDeleteOtherwise, though, that's a great summation of the liberal worldview. Rich people are mean because they have so much money, otherwise they wouldn't be rich, etc. Classic self-sealing logic.
Incidentally, I thought the Kennedys were just blaming The Curse of Chappaquidick for all their troubles, or something like that.
ReplyDeletetryanmax, liberal economists are not farmers, but that's pretty much the sort of thing they endorsed during the Great Depression. And here you thought you had some brilliant insight. :-)
ReplyDeleteT-Rav and Bev, I sent you an email about the holiday coming up.
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, At Huffpo, your wrongness rating would be 11 no matter what you said. If you told them you thought Obama was great, the paradox would kill half of them!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the compliments, Commander Max.
ReplyDeleteFrankly, this speculation leads one to consider how lucky we have been over the years. However much liberals have screwed up the country, we at least have had no experiences like that of the Soviet Union, with deliberate famines, mass starvation, forced deportations, etc. Our liberals still suck, though.
Andrew, you're being optimistic. Those "man on the street" interviews Howard Stern conducted, where he got a couple of guys to say they thought Obama had done a great job with his tax-cutting and reduced-spending policies, lead me to think there are some people who can rationalize almost any contradiction. (sigh)
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, Isn't that the truth.
ReplyDeleteOn your point to Max, I think the reason we haven't had the same problems as the Soviets or whomever is because our public is different -- more independent. So our liberals need to lie their way to get what they want. That keeps them from going too far.
Plus, I think a really solid case can be made that the Democrats aren't really run by the liberals -- they are much a party of big business as the Republicans.
And they are ALL run by the Illuminati...
ReplyDeleteThe Dems are run by both the libs and big business. It's really more socialistic than Commie, at this stage. But then isn't that we call Commie light. Yes Andrew, the US population is far more independent. We will tell the government where to go. Which is why libs are working so hard at undermining us. I think if the libs keep pushing, eventually the states will push back. If the states don't the people will, if the government decides to call in US troops to enforce whatever. The government is going to find out how little control they have.
ReplyDeleteBev, don't make up stuff. It's the Bilderberg Group and the Trilateral Commission controlling everything. Duh.
ReplyDeleteShows what YOU know! Who controls the Bilderberg Group and the Trilateral Commission? Yep. The Illuminati...hah!
ReplyDeleteAre those black helicopters I hear outside? Naaaaah.
But then again...the Illuminati are controlled by the shape-shifting reptilians that live underground...
ReplyDeleteBut they never want it known that they never do a thing. Because of their deep dark secrets.
ReplyDeleteThey set up the Illuminati, for a place to hide away to smoke, drink, and watch dirty movies.
And the Freemasons control the shape-shifting reptilians who control the Illuminati. Boom.
ReplyDeleteCMax, unfortunately, there is no perfect metaphor for the destructive abilities of government unleashed.
ReplyDeletePlease, it's Dan Brown running the whole show. He only pretended to expose the global conspiracy in order to keep it hidden.
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, I only mentioned the Laffer Curve b/c liberals laugh off Classical and/or Austrian economics by name, but (generally) are forced to acknowledge the sensibility when the concept is explained.
ReplyDeleteExcept for those dolts Howard Stern found.
And Paul Krugman.
I should try to sell him some cropland in Utah.
Tryanmax - I KNEW it! It's been Dan Brown all along! or T-Rav's kitty commandos...
ReplyDeleteBev, my kitten commandos are independent contractors, nothing more. As to who they are currently independently contracting for--well, that's my business.
ReplyDelete