Last week's latest military coup popular revolution in Egypt only missed landing on the Fourth of July by a few hours, duly noted by many on the Internet. And it's easy to argue, as many have, that as a struggling would-be democracy, the folks in Cairo would do well to follow our example. They may be right. But how closely?
Earlier this week, one Ed Krayewski, a writer at Reason.com, made the case for why Egyptians should adopt a near carbon-copy of the U.S. Constitution as their governing document. Egypt's existing constitution, a 236-page monstrosity, reads more like an owner's manual than a promise of order and liberty--and of course, it has not done very well at providing either. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg commented that it was more reminiscent of troubled, unstable South Africa than of America. (Naturally, though, she thought this was a good thing.) Anyhoo, Krayewski suggests that Egypt preserve its attempt at democracy by forming a constitution very similar to ours, in its formal organization of government, its system of checks and balances, its Bill of Rights or equivalent thereof, etc.
I can think of ideas a lot worse than this. There's no denying that America's democratic system has been the most stable and long-lasting of its kind, ever, and definitely outshines its rivals--say, continental European technocracy--by a mile. But is trying to completely recreate our political order over there the best option?
Here, of course, we have one of the big fault lines for American policymakers, and one of the key contested assumptions behind the project of "nation-building," since at least the Iraq War. Whether or not a Western-style liberal democracy can be created within a few years in a country with little or no such native political tradition, such as most of the Arab world, is a question still up for grabs. And not being a foreign policy expert myself, I don't pretend to have a clear answer. But I am a bit leery (though not entirely so) of the idea that carbon copies of our government and our ethos of ordered liberty will solve things. It's not that they wouldn't work--they might--but that our system in all its particulars is not a universal, self-evident rule; it has a political history, like all documents, and that history is particular and different from other locales.
Consider our principle of federalism, for example. Personally, I think the more decentralized a government is, the better; it's one of the key reasons why I am a conservative. Keep in mind, though, how such a dispersal of power originated in our country. America began as a string of separate and often isolated colonies--colonies with a common language and legal system, to be sure, but still as self-contained and internally sovereign as Ghana, Nigeria, Rhodesia, etc. would be a century or two later. Any overarching government those colonies formed would have to respect their existence and leave them as sub-units with a lot of autonomy; hence our federalist system. That doesn't make as much sense in Egypt, where most of the population is concentrated in a small land area and easily connected by the Nile river. No doubt some delegation and decentralization of authority would be useful, but there's just not the same call for it--for the sovereign state of Cairo, or Alexandria, or Giza, or what have you--in that situation.
Not a fatal issue, most likely, but it is one example of these different political traditions. In any case, beyond such matters of form, there is that thorny question of whether it's in everyone's best interests for the country to experience such full universal democracy all at once, the one you can't ask without sounding like a pretentious jerk. (No, trust me--you really can't do it.)
Lots of people, especially libertarians, would naturally answer that you have to empower the people, let them make their own decisions, even if the consequences are sometimes negative. Fair enough, and perhaps that is the best option in the long run; given how mass political movements often go, however, especially in the Middle East, the possible short-term consequences are worth giving some thought to. If mass democracy should somehow lead to a war with Israel or Iraq or whoever, that would assuredly not be a good thing.
All of which is to say, for Egyptians to try and introduce an all-new political system overnight, even a fully democratic one, would be extremely risky and unstable without taking account of the realities in the country and what people are familiar with. If nothing else, consider the inertia and quasi-independence of the civil service and other institutions, which don't like discontinuity. More than a few observers have noticed the inactivity of the police and other services under Morsi, for example, and wondered whether they actively undermined the regime. Either way, deliberately alienating those who hold so many of the levers of power is rarely smart, and another reason to make the changes as slow and smooth as possible, not impose new schemes.
That being said, I do think the Reason article makes some very good points, especially its characterization of our Constitution as a document of "negative rights" (i.e. the government declines to interfere in daily life), versus the "positive rights" (spelling out what the government will be doing), as one sees in the current Egyptian and other owner's manual constitutions today. A revision to the negative form would be helpful indeed, if for no other reason than it would transfer a lot of the responsibility for Egyptians' security and prosperity to Egyptians themselves, and encourage the growth of a strong civil society. In that respect, maybe the lesson is for Egypt (and others) to take the spirit of our American documents as their guide, and not necessarily the letter. But this is just one interpretation. Feel free to share yours.
Earlier this week, one Ed Krayewski, a writer at Reason.com, made the case for why Egyptians should adopt a near carbon-copy of the U.S. Constitution as their governing document. Egypt's existing constitution, a 236-page monstrosity, reads more like an owner's manual than a promise of order and liberty--and of course, it has not done very well at providing either. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg commented that it was more reminiscent of troubled, unstable South Africa than of America. (Naturally, though, she thought this was a good thing.) Anyhoo, Krayewski suggests that Egypt preserve its attempt at democracy by forming a constitution very similar to ours, in its formal organization of government, its system of checks and balances, its Bill of Rights or equivalent thereof, etc.
I can think of ideas a lot worse than this. There's no denying that America's democratic system has been the most stable and long-lasting of its kind, ever, and definitely outshines its rivals--say, continental European technocracy--by a mile. But is trying to completely recreate our political order over there the best option?
Here, of course, we have one of the big fault lines for American policymakers, and one of the key contested assumptions behind the project of "nation-building," since at least the Iraq War. Whether or not a Western-style liberal democracy can be created within a few years in a country with little or no such native political tradition, such as most of the Arab world, is a question still up for grabs. And not being a foreign policy expert myself, I don't pretend to have a clear answer. But I am a bit leery (though not entirely so) of the idea that carbon copies of our government and our ethos of ordered liberty will solve things. It's not that they wouldn't work--they might--but that our system in all its particulars is not a universal, self-evident rule; it has a political history, like all documents, and that history is particular and different from other locales.
Consider our principle of federalism, for example. Personally, I think the more decentralized a government is, the better; it's one of the key reasons why I am a conservative. Keep in mind, though, how such a dispersal of power originated in our country. America began as a string of separate and often isolated colonies--colonies with a common language and legal system, to be sure, but still as self-contained and internally sovereign as Ghana, Nigeria, Rhodesia, etc. would be a century or two later. Any overarching government those colonies formed would have to respect their existence and leave them as sub-units with a lot of autonomy; hence our federalist system. That doesn't make as much sense in Egypt, where most of the population is concentrated in a small land area and easily connected by the Nile river. No doubt some delegation and decentralization of authority would be useful, but there's just not the same call for it--for the sovereign state of Cairo, or Alexandria, or Giza, or what have you--in that situation.
Not a fatal issue, most likely, but it is one example of these different political traditions. In any case, beyond such matters of form, there is that thorny question of whether it's in everyone's best interests for the country to experience such full universal democracy all at once, the one you can't ask without sounding like a pretentious jerk. (No, trust me--you really can't do it.)
Lots of people, especially libertarians, would naturally answer that you have to empower the people, let them make their own decisions, even if the consequences are sometimes negative. Fair enough, and perhaps that is the best option in the long run; given how mass political movements often go, however, especially in the Middle East, the possible short-term consequences are worth giving some thought to. If mass democracy should somehow lead to a war with Israel or Iraq or whoever, that would assuredly not be a good thing.
All of which is to say, for Egyptians to try and introduce an all-new political system overnight, even a fully democratic one, would be extremely risky and unstable without taking account of the realities in the country and what people are familiar with. If nothing else, consider the inertia and quasi-independence of the civil service and other institutions, which don't like discontinuity. More than a few observers have noticed the inactivity of the police and other services under Morsi, for example, and wondered whether they actively undermined the regime. Either way, deliberately alienating those who hold so many of the levers of power is rarely smart, and another reason to make the changes as slow and smooth as possible, not impose new schemes.
That being said, I do think the Reason article makes some very good points, especially its characterization of our Constitution as a document of "negative rights" (i.e. the government declines to interfere in daily life), versus the "positive rights" (spelling out what the government will be doing), as one sees in the current Egyptian and other owner's manual constitutions today. A revision to the negative form would be helpful indeed, if for no other reason than it would transfer a lot of the responsibility for Egyptians' security and prosperity to Egyptians themselves, and encourage the growth of a strong civil society. In that respect, maybe the lesson is for Egypt (and others) to take the spirit of our American documents as their guide, and not necessarily the letter. But this is just one interpretation. Feel free to share yours.
Perhaps this is the fever talking, but why not take Israel's constitution and just scratch out the name "Israel" and write "Egypt." I'm sure that would go over reeeeally well.
ReplyDeleteOr go the Bill & Ted route... once clause: "Allah says, 'Be excellent to each other... and party on!'" You know Islam is all about parties.
How many countries where the population's religious affiliation is dominated by Muslims have managed to maintain any kind of actual democracy for any length of time? Certainly Turkey, but that happened after a secularist cultural revolution. Doesn't matter which Constitution you use if the culture doesn't subscribe to the basic tenents.
ReplyDeleteWhich begs the question, is the continued growth of authoritarian government in the US correlated with the shrinking of the Judeo Christian ethic?
Stability isn't magically conferred through even a well written constitution and suitability for democracy doesn't seem to mean much either.
ReplyDeleteAmerica had a bloody civil war, a conception of human rights most of its history that would horrify modern Americans (the definition of cruel and unusual punishment has really changed over the years), quite a bit of civil unrest and more than a few assassinations. And we're as good as it gets.
On a related note, not only do constitutions not magically impose stability, but democracy is a process, not an end game. In the US there has been an unending debate about what rights are and who they apply to. Legislators and judges on both sides of the ideological divide discover new rights and rubbish old ones that don't suit their purposes all of the time. And once again, that is as good as it gets/the way it should be.
Anyway, getting back to the Middle East, they aren't going to draw their lines the same places we currently draw ours, but that's not our problem and unlikely to become our problem since Islamists in presidential palaces make very different calculations than Islamists in caves.
Also I've pointed out before, 'friendly' dictators in the Middle East suppress all civil society but Islam and encourage hatred of Israel and the US (both in their own countries and abroad. Then they say to us 'Man, the people really hate you guys, you need us dictators to protect you'. Given how deadly non-state actors have become, that is no longer a game it makes sense for us to play.
Andrew, I hate to spoil your joke but Israel does not have a Constitution. Its parliament, like Britain's, is sovereign.
ReplyDeleteI enjoyed your post, Rav. I haven't been in too good shape to participate lately, but have read some articles. There are many, including, perhaps, some of our founding fathers, who would be amazed our country and its' constitution have made it this far. I agree with you that enumerating powers to the federal government was a good idea, and it tended to work until statists such as Wilson and Roosevelt began to pack SCOTUS with something other than strict constructionists.
ReplyDeleteI think our country has worked as well as it has is probably due to our national character. Most immigrants from Europe were fleeing things such as religious persecution, and experienced first hand how the oppressive policies of the crown were to citizens of the colonies. What I'm saying is, I agree that the culture and mindset of people in the middle eastern countries are not coming from a place with which we are familiar in the west. Put another way, instituting our form of government is no guarantee that something stable will come to be. That said, there is the technology aspect that changes things. Events seem to spiral out of control more quickly in the age of Twitter.
As for our country playing cosmic Mary Worth, meddling in other country's affairs, I think that is primarily an outgrowth of the 20th century due to the two world wars, and cold war with the Soviet Union. Two superpowers, and if we didn't get involved, the commies would .... and we would lose our freedom when the soviets surpassed us. Think Kruschov saying "we will bury you." Once our government gets a taste of shaping events to our likely, it is a tough addiction to break.
Andrew, is there a clause in there that makes Judaism the official religion of Israel? Because if they applied that to Egypt, that truly would be hilarious. :-) Actually, it would be hilarious regardless.
ReplyDeleteK, Turkey is definitely an odd case, and the protests going on last month against Erdogan do seem to suggest a commitment to a country that is both Muslim and rather liberal and secularist. There may well be a long enough democratic tradition there that it can survive over the long run, especially if a majority of the people are behind it. Which is not to say they don't have problems--they most certainly do--but look, they have a Turkish-language version of "Wheel of Fortune" over there. And that gives me hope.
ReplyDeleteAs to your last point, I'm sure the two are related, personally, but I doubt you could find the data to prove it. Also--and I can't stress this enough--it doesn't beg the question, it raises the question. Sorry, but that must be the most misused phrase in the English language. :-/
Anthony, you're right that nothing magically confers peace and stability. (Except brute force.)
ReplyDeleteOne counterexample I've always been struck by is Russia, which at the time of the Revolution also had little experience with democracy, on any level. A historian I trust speculated once that if the tsars wanted to prevent such upheaval, they might have created a limited assembly filled with conservative supporters from the provinces, which would not have been exactly democratic but would have given people outside the royal family something of a say in government. Pressure from more liberal individuals and groups would then have probably led to expansion of the franchise and the powers of the legislature, etc. over time.
Whether the same thing would work in today's Egypt/Arab world is hard to say. Maybe not, given the past flirtations with mass democracy, constant media exposure, and the foolish notion that only getting half a loaf is an injustice and a reason for agitation. But it might be worth a shot.
T-Rav,
ReplyDeleteI'm not a historian, but the professor's alternate history sounds like what England did and even England wound up fighting a civil war (which established the primacy of Parliament).
It seems to me that what tends to work best is a system with checks and balances. Not just in things such as federalism but between branches of government and between political parties. The other, and perhaps most, important is protection of the minority groups whether race, religion, political tendendacy, etc. Without it the majority can literally destroy a minority group.
ReplyDeleteI am not an expert on Egyptian politics, but from what I can tell Morsi never obtained the support of the military. I'm not sure he even tried. His decisions where leading to terrible economics and he was hurting minority groups. One could argue that the military was acting as a balance for the country.
T-Rav, They'd have to pass it to find out what's in it!
ReplyDeleteAnthony, not exactly--the Civil War had something to do with that, but it was more a result of 1688. 17th-century English political history aside, I'm not saying that it would work, merely that it's a possible alternative to the game of "unliked U.S.-friendly dictators vs. wildly uncontrollable democratic mobs."
ReplyDeleteGlad to hear from you, Jed, and keep hanging in there! :-)
ReplyDeleteYour comment pretty much agrees with what I was thinking. The mixed background of the colonists and their fear of being oppressed by each other definitely had a lot to do with what I mentioned in my post, the desire to maintain their colony/state's autonomy. Although the ethnic makeup of the Middle East is far more varied than many people realize, I'm not sure the particulars of Islam would allow for such plurality.
I don't know how Twitter and other social media will change the status quo over there. On the one hand, it definitely has the potential to create mass events, as we've seen; on the other, many of the regimes in question (i.e. Iran) have shown a surprising ability to manipulate and even suppress it when needed. One more wild card in the deck, I fear.
Andrew, except I don't know if Israel has their own version of Nancy Pelosi. Or Egypt, for--well, I know Egypt doesn't.
ReplyDeleteI don't know if Israel has their own version of Nancy Pelosi.
ReplyDeleteThey can have ours if they'd like.
that must be the most misused phrase in the English language. :-/
ReplyDelete"When I Use a word, It means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.
I'm a big fan of the Humpty Dumpty school of writing.
They can have ours [Pelosi] if they'd like.
ReplyDeleteK- That is just mean...I wouldn't wish her on our worst enemy. Oh, wait, yes I would. Maybe we could send her to "help" the Al Qaeda rebel forces in Syria!
K, Israel is our ally. You only bestow a gift like that on your mortal enemy. Like Iran, or Mordor.
ReplyDeleteFurther, that's not the Humpty Dumpty philosophy, that's nominalism, and it's terrible. Use proper terminology.
Mordor. LOL! :D
ReplyDeleteThat is just mean...
ReplyDeleteHey, I'm giving them the option of refusing. Caveat emptor and all that.
You liked that, DUQ? :-) Though come to think of it, I could easily see Pelosi becoming head cheerleader for Sauron.
ReplyDeleteT-Rav, I hate to be the jerk historian, but the Russia example is a little more complicated. In 1906, Imperial Russia actually did try an assembly to please the populace- the Duma- after the Russo-Japanese War. Interestingly, it started with free elections and led to many socialist groups getting into power and outnumbering the czarist conservatives. Nicholas II hated this and dissolved the group twice. He then restricted voting to his more conservative (well, Russian-style conservatives) supporters, turning it into little more than a crony system. In other words, they seemed to be trying to get close to democracy, but quickly pulled in the reigns and only further enraged the population.
ReplyDeleteAs for the provisional government in 1917, it definitely had a chance, but there was a HUGE X-factor: the war. Russians everywhere were tired of fighting and wanted out. When the provisional government decided to keep fighting, it's fate was sealed. The commies' biggest asset to taking over Russia was promising to pull out of WWI.
Okay, I'm done being a jerk for now.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that, like Anthony, I believe that having an assembly is no safeguard, especially when those who were in power weasel their way back in and are always trying to undermine it. (As a matter of fact, Weimar Germany is another terrific example here.)
As for Egypt, I see a parallel in this. I think Egypt is going to swing back to a military strongman. Like Russia, they went from a dictator to free elections, which brought in the fringe group/groups. Now- after thousands of years of one form of autocratic rule or another- I think Egyptians will be willing to accept another strongman, provided that strongman offers some token rights that the Muslim Brotherhood denied.
And since history seemingly likes repeating itself, check out these news reports I found:
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
"I could easily see Pelosi becoming head cheerleader for Sauron."
ReplyDeleteT-Rav... you just put a terrifying image of Pelosi in a cheerleader's uniform in my head.
Andrew, what's your doctor's number?
Is it me or does it seem like the Egyptian military has no interest in going to war with Israel? Sadat was working on a peace treaty with Israel. Mubarak was selling oil and natural gas to Israel. Both of these men had the support of the military. Mubarak was probably allowed to be forced out due to questions regarding his successor. Now the military can control this with the people's blessing. Look for someone who will continue to work with the US, Europe, and Israel and clamp down on the crazier Brotherhood members. Perhaps with time Egypt will be muslim more like Indonesia than Iran.
ReplyDeleteRustbelt, no problem, I'm surrounded by jerk historians. It's an occupational hazard. ;-)
ReplyDeleteI know about the Duma and all, of course, and its many twists and turns; but to be honest, it was never respected as a branch of government in its own right, not by the tsar, not by the royal family, and most importantly, not by the overwhelming mass of the Russian population. I could (and might) go into why, but seriously, they didn't give a hoot. In fact, when the monarchy came tumbling down in 1917, the Provisional Government got thrown up basically because the Duma had no idea what to do or how to govern on its own and figured they had to have some kind of executive.
No, this historian I refer to (name of Pipes; I highly recommend his stuff, along with fellow Russian historian Robert Conquest) suggested that the tsars should have taken this step back during the Great Reforms of the 1850s and '60s, when Russian industrialization was still in the future and society was very much in the hands of a patrimonial, land-based elite. By the time you're talking about, he believes it was far too late.
At any rate, I would agree that the examples of Revolutionary Russia and Weimar Germany both demonstrate the need for an assembly to have had some experience in actually governing as a recognized and somewhat empowered body alongside other powers, before it can claim sovereignty in its own right. Similar to the Duma, the Reichstag in pre-Weimar Germany had little real power and was mostly concerned with managerial details, and was viewed with contempt by the other branches of government; which no doubt had a lot to do with what followed.
Koshcat, I don't believe that the military has any interest in going to war with Israel, though I also believe that's less because of a genuine desire for peace and friendship than because it knows in the event of a war, the U.S. would quickly cut off aid. Not even Obama would let the dollars keep flowing in in that scenario.
ReplyDeleteCountdown to Catastrophe
ReplyDeleteJULY 12, 1914 (99 years ago today…)
Anger over the death of Russian Ambassador Hartwig continues. As conspiracy theories accusing Austrian Ambassador Giesl of murder continue to spread through the press and by word of mouth, numerous anti-Austrian demonstrations take place across Belgrade. Some observers describe the situation in Serbia’s capital city as ‘warlike.’
Despite this, the Italian charge d affaires visits the Austrian legation following an invite from Giesl. (Word is, he has some worthwhile information.) The Italian diplomat was Hartwig’s guest at the Russian embassy the day of Franz Ferdinand’s murder. He tells Giesl that Hartwig did, in fact, hold a bridge party that night. He also confirms that Hartwig refused to lower the Russian flag (as most other embassies had) to memorialize Franz Ferdinand. The Italian adds that Hartwig called the archduke ‘sick’ and that his death was good for Austria’s ‘exhausted race' (that is, the Hapsburg royal family.) Hartwig also referred to Franz Ferdinad’s nephew, Prince Karl (the new heir to the throne), as ‘syphilitic.’ In other words, Hartwig’s last words before he died- including, apparently, his condolences over the archduke’s death- were a series of lies.
Meanwhile, pressure from Berlin is starting to increase. Austrian Ambassador to Germany Szogyeny reports to Foreign Minister Berchtold that German officials are now beginning to demand that Austria attack Serbia quickly. He adds that German officials think “it is by no means certain that…Russia would resort to arms” over a conflict involving Serbia; and that there is no indication that England would get involved in a Balkan conflict, either. (As a precaution, German Ambassador to Great Britain, Prince Karl Max von Lichnowsky, has been ordered to encourage British neutrality and to dispel rumors that Germany is pressuring Austria to go to war.) Berchtold, however, doesn’t respond.
Whew, just got the update in...
ReplyDeleteT-rav, that's a very interesting take on the Russian situation. (I'll admit, I've never really studied the rate of Russian industrialization in the 19th century.) In that case, did Pipes think that the constitution Alexander II signed in 1881 would've made a difference if he hadn't been assassinated the same day? Or, was he already 20 years too late?
And while the pre-Weimar Reichstag was largely powerless, I was actually thinking of the infamous 25/48/53 formula used during the Weimar Republic. (article 25- president can dissolve the Reichstag; 48- president can enact emergency laws without Reichstag consent, though Reichstag can repeal them by simple majority within 60 days; 53- president can appoint chancellor) The whole thing was the idea of Presidnet Hindenburg's friend, Kurt von Schleicher. Basically, Schleicher becomes chancellor; Hindenburg rules under article 48; Hindenburg dissolves Reichstag if they threaten to repeal laws.
For me, this has to rank as one of the most blatant examples of individuals working to undermine an elected assembly. Hindenburg and Schleicher were products of the pre-WWI court-based government of Imperial Germany, and they aimed to get back to that way of doing business.
I think a lot of people underestimate just how much the Reichstag was just for show. In fact, when the words "Dem Deutsche Volke" ("For the German People") were added to the Reichstag building about 1900, 1901 (I think), Kaiser Wilhelm II nearly had them removed because they "stunk of democracy."
Okay, I got a little sidetracked there. I just never get a good chance to discuss historical subjects with anyone these days. Anyway, I have a bad feeling that's what's going to happen in Egypt. They'll ignore the powerful simplicity of an example like the American Constitution (for all of the flaws and details that had yet to be worked out, I'll admit), and go for another 'driver's manual' with more loopholes than your favorite roller coaster.
Gentlemen, please continue your history discussions. I may not be able to contribute, but I am learning so much! Thanks.
ReplyDeleteSame for me, Tryanmax. Tsarist Russia and the potential ways it could have developed is actually something I need to expand a creative effort I'm working on (Andrew's familiar with it already). The same goes for WWI in general.
ReplyDelete- Daniel
Darn historians reading all the time and trying to teach others. I'm couch potatoing here!
ReplyDelete