1. The World Class Russian Army: No sooner have the Russians rolled the Ukrainians, who refused to defend themselves, than this hive of retired colonels who pimp for defense contractors began writing articles stating that we were no match for the Russian military. I kid you not. The mightiest military the world has ever seen... a military so mighty that all others have given up trying to go toe to toe with it... is no match for the backwater Russian army? Really?
This claim was based on an examination of the equipment and tactics used by the Russian troops in the Ukraine. What these "experts" concluded was that the troops they saw on the television were very well equipped. They had sophisticated body armor, which may or may not be enough to block the rounds fired by the M4 carbine - the standard American rifle. They wore advanced communications gear which let them coordinate. They used expert tactics too, i.e. these weren't the untrained conscripts we think of as Russian soldiers. Conclusion: Putin's efforts to modernize the Russian military have paid off and his troops are superior to ours. Panic!!!
Of course, this was all horse crap and these chicken hawks knew it. For starters, these weren't Russian "soldiers," they were Russian special forces. This is the equivalent of judging the rest of our military by the SEALS. So forget the part of the conclusion about the Russians being super well trained. Moreover, forget all the talk about superior equipment because the regular army isn't equipped with any of this stuff. Even more to the point, these self-described "experts" are ignoring the fact that American military might doesn't come from an M4 carbine, it comes from total air superiority, our armor dominating the battlefield, and our infantry having an intense punch with a variety of weapons and toys. And in those things, the Russians just can't compete.
2. The Chinese Navy: Before Putin, it was fashionable to worry about the Chinese. Not only was their economy destined to destroy ours (despite all the evidence), but they have been building a powerful military which will put us in our place. They even have a stealth fighter! (Actually, it was a mock up and doesn't work.) But nothing has made the doomsdayers happier than talking about the Chinese "blue water" fleet. On the back of a single aircraft carrier purchased from Russia, the Chinese were supposedly on the verge of overcoming our naval dominance.
Then Flight MH370 happened. This has exposed a massive problem for anyone with wet dreams of Chinese aircraft carriers lurking off American cities. See, it turns out that the Chinese sent 18 minor ships to engage in the search for MH370 and after a few days, they had to go home to repair and refuel because the Chinese have no capability to support ships at sea and they have no bases where they could stop in the region. Putting this into military terms, the Chinese will be hard-pressed to operate a fleet of even two dozen ships much past the Sea of China for more than a couple days. So much for force projection.
Coincidentally, at the same time this was happening, the US Navy announced that it had developed a process which lets it turn sea water in fuel (even jet fuel), which means the Navy can be independent of any oil producers and its ships can stay at sea for years if they so choose. China's looking at about a week at sea tops.
Forget these doomsdayist folks. Our country is strong, despite Obama's best efforts. Our military remains in a class by itself and no one is even trying to challenge it on that basis. Our economy is solid. The spirit of our people is as it always has been. Nothing to see here.
I'm surprised about the Chinese Navy. I mean, our Navy has been using nuclear power to stay at see for months at a time for decades. Guess they are too busy building high speed rail that crashes and kills hundreds. Not stopping California from still trying.
ReplyDeleteI was a little bit to when I read that because it seems so obvious to have support ships. But from things I've read about their military, the Chinese are trying to copy the big things, but lack the understanding of how they work. So they aren't buying all the support and backup they need. So there are huge gaps in their knowledge (and their abilities).
ReplyDeleteBoth Russia and China have neighbor problems. Their best allies among smaller countries tend to be crackpot dictatorships like Syria (civil war), Pakistan, Burma (moving towards Democracy), Cuba (isolated), Venezuela (in trouble) and North Korea ('nuff said)
ReplyDeleteJust about every country in Asia is to some degree allied with the US against China —including Vietnam. A few, like Japan, are outright hostile towards China.
China has no friendly ports in the region outside China while the US has Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Australia, possibly Vietnam, etc.
Russia managed to pi$$ off every Eastern European country during the Cold War through 40+ years off oppression and cruelty. The only ones in those countries that like Russia are ethnic Russians.
Note: The US deployed troops to Poland and is currently deploying troops to the Baltic states.
Kit, We also signed a treaty this last week to return to the Philippines for ten years. We have bases or treaties to allow bases in almost every country on the planet. China and Russia have maybe 10 between them.
ReplyDeleteOn the rest of your comment, you're absolutely right. Russian and China are both boxed in by hostile neighbors who don't like them. Their overseas friends are basically the bottom of the barrel, and they don't have anything like the firepower or support they need to get to them in a time of war.
Moreover, their militaries aren't where these Colonels try to tell you. Take China. China has some shiny PR toys, but their military is about where ours was in the 1960/1970s. They have no experience running a navy. They have no experience running a coordinated military. Does that mean they aren't dangerous? No because they have a lot of people. But it means that they are not a true competitor to our military. And adding the occasional Russian-built carrier isn't going to change that.
As for Russia, the biggest irony over these guys fawning over these "well equipped Russian soldiers" was that they were wearing European and American gear.
"We also signed a treaty this last week to return to the Philippines for ten years."
ReplyDeleteAndrew, I was just about the post that. LINK
Also, the year by which China is hoping to have a fully operatioal blue-water navy?
ReplyDelete2050
This article touches on what you said.
LINK
China does pose some danger but its not the end of America. Not by a long shot.
Kit, Think about that. They want to have a real navy in 35 years. What is our navy going to look like in 35 years? They are playing catch up in a game where catching up only leaves you in the dust. Not to mention, that's around the time their demographic problems will start blowing up on them as their population gets really, really old.
ReplyDeleteNot don't misunderstand me... I firmly believe we need to stay strong and stay as far ahead of everyone else as possible, but let's not pretend that our military is some weakling that can't take out the Chinese or the Russians.
BTW, my prediction for 35 years from now is that we are using mostly drones -- drone ships, drone fighters, with few carrier groups coming in the manage the drones and handle the few missions that still need manned crews.
ReplyDeleteI also saw something interesting about the Navy trying to build underwater drones which would just sit and wait like at the bottom of the ocean until activated. Think about that for a minute!
Anyone who thinks that there is anything in the world that could challenge our military in a conventional war hasn't been paying attention. Sadly, a lot of Americans haven't been paying attention.
ReplyDeleteA few days ago I tried to reason with a friend who feared a Russian invasion (maybe he had just seen Red Dawn?).
I'm no expert, but with 30 years in the military in weapons and munitions I can tell you that the Chinese are no threat militarily to anyone but Russia. They don't have a navy and what they do have will last 30 minutes in a war. The Chinese have to walk everywhere; blow their bridges and roads, and they are eating grass in 3 days. The Russian military is hollow. Their Navy and Air Force have a few little nice looking planes and ships they trot out for everyone to admire, but the rest of the junk is back in Russia. Their Army is conscripted, I wouldn't bet my government on them.
ReplyDelete"my prediction for 35 years from now is that we are using mostly drones -- drone ships, drone fighters, with few carrier groups coming in the manage the drones and handle the few missions that still need manned crews."
ReplyDeleteOH NO! That means a robotic uprising!
(cautionary NSFW warning)
"The Humans are Dead"
But our real threat isn't China or Russia per se. They are regional threats to the sovereign nations around them who want to maintain their sovereignty. I mean, the mainland US was never threatened by the Nazis during WWII and only nominally threatened by the Japanese however these two regional wars turned into WWII. And even the old (soon to be making a repeat appearance) Soviet Union and the US were never going to nuke each other. Mutual destruction meant just that and that was pointless.
ReplyDeleteOur real mainland threat (and I know this is passé to say) is not traditional enemies in traditional border wars with traditional armaments, navies, or supply lines. It is random strikes in urban areas. Something that no matter how large a Navy we have or how powerful our military might, cannot be stopped without martial law declared. All it takes is one or two well place suitcase size nuclear devices in midtown Manhattan and/or Los Angeles.
Anthony, I'm not sure what the game is exactly, but there is this army of retired Colonels who just run around declaring the military neutered and incapable of fighting off a Girl Scout Troop. I know some of this is to push whatever products they are paid to represent, but the rest just seem to get a kick out of it. When I saw them playing up these Russians this weekend, I felt something should be said.
ReplyDeleteCritch, That's exactly right. The only way the Chinese are leaving China is on foot and their neighbors aren't going to sit still for that. And you're right about the Russians too. It's the Potemkin village all over again. They have a few shiny toys to show the world, but the rest of the military is drunken conscripts with rusty weapons and zero desire to serve.
ReplyDeleteThe only real threats the Russians pose are (1) nuclear, (2) causing annoyances elsewhere in the world, (3) blackmailing the Europeans over energy.
China poses a bigger threat, but it is a regional threat.
Kit, Sadly, yes. :(
ReplyDeleteBev is entirely correct. A-symmetrical warfare in our own backyard is a real threat. Frankly, we have no idea who the Hell is coming over our borders at any given time. My gut feeling is that our friends in Europe have a much bigger problem than we do.
ReplyDeleteBev, That's exactly right. Our biggest threat today is terrorist attacks. Fortunately for us, terrorists tend to be even dumber than criminals so they aren't very good at what they do.
ReplyDeleteThat said, the reason the rest of the world isn't a threat is because our military is so strong that the rest of the world knows they can't face us in a straight up war. That keeps guys like Putin and the Chinese limited in terms of who they can harass and it's helped everyone under our umbrella to live more happily, safely, and freely. (Ukrainians excluded).
And the reason I wrote the article is because I'm a firm believer in examining things honestly and I don't think there's anything honest about these people running around declaring us finished. I'm not sure what their goal ultimately is, but the end result is to mislead people into thinking we're in danger when we aren't.
Critch, I have to say that the Europeans dropping their borders struck me as a bad idea. If it was only a handful of secure countries, then it's no big deal. But now they are trusting the Greeks and the Italians and people like that to decide who should be in Europe. Yikes.
ReplyDeleteI have always thought how guerilla warfare is so difficult to defeat. The name comes from the Spanish in the days of Napoleon's peninula campaign. Robert E. Lee did a real service to our country with the way he fought and surrendered. The C.S.A. could have conducted this kind of campaign for years. That doesn't mean there won't be future conventional wars, of course. Maybe we evolve to the Star Trek episode where people report to become casualties (saving buildings and infra-structure become more important than human life.
ReplyDeleteJed, we had the neutron bomb, which killed living things and left buildings intact, but Jimmy Carter axed it. They were also very cheap to build.
ReplyDeleteAn uprising by the North Africans in the Paris suburbs might be very hard to put down.
TennJ - I believe we already have that kind of issue. Does anyone else remember the neutron bomb development? Would destroy all living matter, but would keep all the buildings and infrastructures intact. YEY for the advancement of humanity...It may have been scrapped after clearer heads realized how absurd that would be.
ReplyDeleteJed,
ReplyDeleteIn regards to the Confederacy fighting a guerilla war, do the White League and the Red Shirts not ring any bells for you? They successfully 'redeemed' the South after its Civil War loss.
Andrew, you are right, It's our allies who have the more imminent threat and it was foolish (as always in hindsight) for them to bind themselves together economically and physically. They have gutted their own military in favor of depending on the military might of the US. Well, some of that is reasonable considering that we have strategically placed military bases all over Europe keep Germany in check and to hold the line in Europe against any further Soviet incursion. However, NATO is pointless and well, the UN is even more pointless. All they can do is threaten legal action, wear blue helmets and be neutral.
ReplyDelete[Maybe I was watching too much "24" this weekend...starts 5/5/14!!]
Jed,
ReplyDeleteAnthony is right. The Klan and later the Red Shirts and White League waged a very successful insurgency to ensure white political supremacy in the South. They carried out campaigns of intimidation against blacks trying to vote, lynched blacks, intimidated white Republicans, bombed black schools, etc.
Andrew,
ReplyDeleteI agree that guys inflate foreign threats because scaremongering pays more money than being truthful.
Anthony, That's my thinking too. No one ever got rich writing: "All is well."
ReplyDeleteBev, It was sadly predictable that they would make themselves dependent, but they still should have resisted the urge. Now the question is, will they finally turn this around and take on responsibility for their own safety again? I'm doubtful.
ReplyDeleteAs for the UN, the idea is sound, they just goofed by treating everyone the same. By letting the sicko countries act as if they were just like everyone else, they have discredited the entire organization.
Critch, I guess we'll see if that happens or not. Keep in mind though that despite the high concentration in Paris, only around 5% of Europe is Muslim.
ReplyDeleteOnly 3% of France is Muslim. And in Paris the Muslim population is 15%, at the highest, though some estimates put it closer to 10%.
ReplyDeleteBy comparison, the Hispanic population of Los Angeles county is 47% (2011).
Kit, I didn't know they were only 15% in Paris. I knew that in Europe they were less than 5%, which is 2% lower than here.
ReplyDeleteSome statistics put the French national population percentage at 7.4%.
ReplyDeleteThe French government is constitutionally forbidden from asking direct questions about Religious affiliation on its Census so the numbers are estimates. The 3% comes from two polls in 2007. The US State Department and CIA World Factbook put the national population of Muslims at around 5-10%.
Anthony and Kit - sorry, I was simply speaking of the governmental entity of the C.S.A. But you are absolutely correct, those groups were essentially domestic terrorists, and some included high ranking people from the military such as General Nathan Bedford Forest. And my point was the Army of Northern Virginia could have remained as a formidable guerilla foe for years had Lee chosen to go that route.
ReplyDeleteJed,
ReplyDeleteDavis did want Lee to start a guerilla war —with a starving army surrounded by Union soldiers.
ANYWAY, moving on from the Civil War and Reconstruction... from what I know the biggest problem the US faces in Europe is that it would take a number of months to deploy enough troops to the region to halt or turn back Russia, should Russia invade.
Kit - re: months to deploy.
ReplyDeleteBut, of course, Russia would not be able to use the element of surprise like it could in the 50's and 60's to just show up and take over. What is more disturbing is the game Putin is playing in Europe by invading airspace just to get his jollies. He may be testing their air defenses and to make everyone nervous, so that they will preemptively strike and leave him no choice but to retaliate. It may not be dangerous for the US, but it certainly could be for Europeans with long memories and short fuses.
And for whatever reason, we have sent 600 troops to Poland to do what exactly I can't imagine. Maybe Obama has a guilty conscience for cancelling the missile defense system agreement Bush made with Poland and Hungary in his first days in office to "reset" with Russia perhaps. Who knows.
Bev,
ReplyDeletere the 600 troops. First, they are not just to Poland but to the Baltics as well. Second, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are all members of NATO. Third, the 3 Baltic states happen to have sizable Russian minorities, especially Estonia. MY guess is the reason they were sent is to send a message to Putin to avoid trying to pull in Estonia what he is currently doing in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, i.e., inciting the ethnic Russian minorities and, in the case of Crimea, sending in troops to annex the area.
Andrew -
ReplyDeleteYa know, TNG screencaps are now available in HD, right?
I took the liberty. See here.
:-)
Scott, I took what I could find. It seemed appropriate... Putin on the right, his Chinese buddies on the left.
ReplyDeleteBev, I think Russia would be shocked how long it takes them just to get to the Polish border. And don't forget, the Euros do have armies, they just don't use them. So it's not like Russia would be invading open countries.
ReplyDeleteOn why we're in Poland, it's to act as a tripwire. If Russia does something there, he will have directly attacked US troops and that will start everything.
Kit - l.o.l.
ReplyDeleteYes, I get that the 600 troops are the trip wire, but to what. For Obama to shake his finger at Putin and say "shame on you"? Chemical weapons were the "tripwire" for Assad and let's not go to the nuclear capabilities of Iran. Do we really think that with all we have seen in the last 5 years, that Obama would wage a full scale war against Putin or anyone else for that matter? Does he have the balls to follow through? I see this much like I see his action in Syria and all of the other lines drawn in the sand. Obama and Kerry will puff themselves up like they are actually going to do something meaningful and then the first sign of actually having to do something and they cower in the corner and blame Bush for getting them into this mess in the first place.
ReplyDeletethat is pretty much the way I see O and Kerry too Bev.
ReplyDeleteBev, Usually, sending people to act as a trigger is one of those things no leader could possibly let pass. Can Obama? I'm not sure. If he does, it will be a total disaster. Even worse, if Putin thinks he will, then Putin may just want to push that button to see what happens.
ReplyDeleteAnd Andrew, that is what bothers me. Putin will just push the button to try and humiliate Obama (and the US). And Obama will fall for it. Just like he has with every other despotic world leader. He trusts his exceptional talents as an orator and if he says it, it must be so. Or it is someone else's fault (usually Israel's or Bush's) that they didn't do what he says.
ReplyDeleteIt may be the generals who are rattling the sabers of war. They always do. Pres. Johnson so wisely said "Without war, there can be no war heroes". But it is the conservative/Republicans/et al. who are getting blamed for wanting to go to war. Maybe they are, but I think more than that, they are tired of watching the endless lines in the sand being crossed. I'm from Texas...we invented the line in the sand (see: Alamo and William B. Travis)
Sorry, I am yelling in my head...sorry.
Bev, I hear that it feels better to yell at statues. :)
ReplyDeleteIn all seriousness, I have no answer for you. Obama has caused a real mess by proving himself to he weak and thereby encouraging bullies to test him. Putin, on the other hand, is a bully and preys on weakness. This is like a game of chicken being played by two morons who don't know they can turn their car away.
Andrew I wish we had little "Like" buttons. Your last comment was spot on.
ReplyDelete"This is like a game of chicken being played by two morons who don't know they can turn their car away."
ReplyDeleteAmen.
Andrew - I wholeheartedly agree. But then so were Hitler and Chamberlain...
ReplyDeleteCritch, Kit and Bev, Let's hope I'm wrong.
ReplyDelete