By Kit
Ukraine
A massive but subtle split has occurred among journalists reporting on the Ukraine conflict about whether they should refer to the collapse of the Ukrainian ceasefire in the present tense or the past tense. Is it “crumbling” or has it “crumbled”?
The reason for the confusion is because of the insistence by pro-Russian insurgents (Donetsk People’s Republic) on the Hamas definition of a ceasefire; You will “cease firing” on us while we “keep firing” on you at our leisure. This week things revolved around a group of forces trapped in the town of Debaltseve, which is encircled by the Donetsk People’s Republic. The DPR said they could leave if they laid down their heavy arms and then left. The Ukrainian government was reluctant because the last time this happened the DPR shelled the retreating forces anyway but they have now withdrawn most of their forces from the city (with weapons).
Now the Guardian is reporting shelling and gunfire near other towns and the rebels appear to be advancing towards a key coastal city, the Ukrainian-held Mariupol. Debaltseve was an important rail juncture and its loss was a major blow to Kiev. The loss of Mariupol would also be a major blow and would allow Putin to ship arms to the insurgents by sea.
As Putin backs the insurgents with heavy weapons Obama, still unsure as to whether Ukraine should be given military arms, continues to supply the Ukrainian military with much-needed night-vision goggles.
ISIL (I’m an Archer fan)
As ISIL continues to behead and immolate prisoners and hostages and entrench itself in the territory it has grabbed a CBS news poll showed that 57% of Americans support the use of ground troops against ISIL. This is a huge increase from 47% support back in October. The current ideological breakdown is 86% of Republicans, 61% of Democrats, and 57% of Independents.
As for Obama, the President is asking for an Authorization for the Use of Military Force against ISIL —that would prohibit the use of ground troops. Also, it would last 3 years, going into his successor’s term.
As Obamacare unravels Obama’s foreign policy also appears to be falling apart.
Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan is appealing to the US to send ground troops to help him.
ReplyDeleteChina is building fortresses to extend control over the South China Sea.
Russia is expanding its reach in Europe.
Obama's incompetence is sending Pax Americana into a tailspin.
If you read history closely you will see that major crisis rarely develop in a vacuum. The British Empire was up to it's eyes in trouble in the 1850s with the Russians, insurgents in many of their colonies, the Chinese and of course the Sepoys in India. I believe that what starts the major conflicts is that one or more countries just cannot deal with everything at one time....right now I do not think that our POTUS or Congress is capable of dealing with numerous major issues because they don't know how to think their way out of an alley and the won't LISTEN TO THE PEOPLE! Washington has become some sort of weird debating society as opposed to a place where smart people try to find solutions. I really do question the motives of this President. For whatever reasons he seems to think that Israel is the enemy, Islamism will just go away if we have a jobs fair and cookies for them and that Putin really doesn't mean it.. Oh, and that China really isn't trying to take control of the South china Sea. We have an Idiocracy up there..and I'm not in any way holding up for the GOP.
ReplyDeleteCritch,
ReplyDeleteI think Jonah Goldberg summed it up: Obama thinks he is in an Aaron Sorkin script:
"I sometimes think Obama thinks he’s in an episode of The West Wing or some other Aaron Sorkin version of reality where the facts always line up to preconceived liberal narratives. In most “sophisticated” Hollywood movies and TV shows about politics, the enemy is usually us. The real threat isn’t some external foe, but the fearsome spirit of Joseph McCarthy that the external enemy might arouse in us. The heroic statesman is the figure who steps forward and points out our own hypocrisy and ignorance; the one who tells us to come to our senses. In The West Wing, President Josiah Bartlet always stepped in to settle the arguments by pointing out our own sins, or what the Bible really says, or what the Constitution really means. HBO’s The Newsroom, a show set two years in the past just so Sorkin has enough time to come up with clever comebacks to today’s events, begins with Will McAvoy, a news anchor, going on a tear about how America is not the greatest country in the world."
LINK
Critch and Kit - Yes, and that is why Johah is so right. Obama really does think that shear volume of his words he speaks (ad nauseum) and his personality will change the course of history...that the seas will recede and that the Earth will begin to heal.
ReplyDeleteThere was a interesting (and by interesting I mean, "frightening") essay yesterday on the Daily Beast once again blaming our
Why Call ISIS Islamic Only Plays Into Its Hands Yeah, that's it...it's because we insist on calling them Islamic terrorists and that just makes them mad and causes others to join them. Well, and all that backlash from innocent Muslims being targeted all over the world...and stuff.
I personally doubt that Obama loves America. But even more importantly, I don't think he trusts America to solve problems... even with his leadership. Interesting idea, no?
ReplyDeleteLet me also echo Critch to a degree by saying that the world is simply too large and too active for one country to police." It's just not possible to focus on that many problems in the level of detail that is needed to manage these issues to prevent them from becoming crises.
ReplyDelete"It's just not possible to focus on that many problems in the level of detail that is needed to manage these issues to prevent them from becoming crises."
ReplyDeleteYeah, that's why we have a long history of working with these things called "allies". Many of our former Presidents were really good forming really good relationships with these "allies" and at working with them like say...I don't know...for instance...Britain, Canada, France, Poland, and Israel to manage all these details and formalize a plan for managing the details that could range from a strong scolding, monitoring, or bombing the living shitte out of the offending detail.
And then there's UN. You remember them, don't you? Yeah, they were supposed to lead us all. But apparently they are too wrapped up that human rights violation investigation of Israel to notice all those mass beheadings, burnings, kidnappings of little girls, and deaths from the global Islamic terrorists organization. Not to mention the actual war perpetrated by one of the leading members of the UN - Russia against the Ukraine (they've already annexed Crimea without much from the UN)
Andrew - I have NO doubt that Obama hates America and has utter contempt for any American who dares to disagree with him. It is obvious in everything he does and says. I have never in my life thought that about any other President or politician in my entire life. And what's even worse, he surrounds himself with like-minded counselors. I
ReplyDeleteBev, What is this "allies" thing of which you speak? Actually, that's a great point. Isn't it interesting that Obama was supposed to restore our reputation in the world, but we've never been so alone.
ReplyDeleteOn America, this is a subtle distinction, but I don't think Obama hates America so much as he doesn't trust (or like or respect) Americans. He only likes his elitist friends.
Obama's not anti-American, he's just elitist!
ReplyDelete@jcwalsh06: @iowahawkblog I think he does love America, but in like a "50 Shades of Grey" kind of way.
ReplyDeleteThis tweet sums it up nicely...
Russian has demonstrated a willingness to pay a heavy economic price for its Ukraine invasion despite the fact military expenditures, sanctions and cheap oil is kicking it in the teeth. I doubt the Ukraine annexation getting bloodier for the Russian side will dampen enthusiasm for the invasion. A Russia that isn't flexing its muscles on the international stage is a Russia that has to face its own weakness.
ReplyDeleteThe question is do we want to stop Russia or do we want to just make their adventure more painful (more painful is unlikely to change their calculations) by giving Ukraine better weapons?
Putting troops on the ground would is probably the only thing that prompt a strategic rethink on Russia's part. Of course, that risks a shooting war between two nuclear powers (though its worth noting Pakistan and India have resisted the temptation to go out in a blaze of nuclear glory despite trading casualties for decades).
As for ISIS, I'd take American willingness to use troops with a grain of salt. As I said some years ago, I think any competent Democrat (John Edwards would have exploded) would have won in 2008 because at the time the American public was unhappy with Bush's foreign policy (including the stream of bodies coming home the media gave heavy play to) and wanted to give the Democrats a shot.
Fighting guerilla wars (which is where reinsertion to Iraq would inevitably end up) is not a move any politician whose foremost concern is polls is going to make.
Also, the Authorization of force wouldn't hold back the next president any. There is nothing stopping Congress and the next President from seeking a broader authorization before the old one expires.
Anthony, In the past, this is where mercenaries come in. You send in Executive Outcomes and they turn the Russian invasion into a mess without any direct fingerprints pointing to us.
ReplyDeleteIn terms of the long term, I think the solution to Russia is to beef up the neighbors we care about and put US bases in those countries to limit their options for future adventures. I would also restart Radio Free America. As for Ukraine, I'm not sure there's much we can do other than send weapons.
Andrew,
ReplyDeleteIncrease U.S. Military presence in Poland, maybe a base. Or at least threaten one if Russia doesn't improve its behavior.
We already have Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty still going.
We should start sending guns to Ukraine. Now.
What, like a US missile defense complex with the blessings of Poland from the Bush years? Like that?? Yeah, Bush was going to move our strategic military bases from Germany to Poland...first thing that Obama did was scrap those in 2009 because Russia was offended.
ReplyDeleteBev,
ReplyDeleteYou are rights. That and his dithering during Iran's Green Revolution and his smack down against Honduras for trying to defend its constitutional laws were but the first signs of his incompetence in the realm of foreign affairs.
Lyndon Johnson was more competent than this!
Also, I propose a motion that from now on we refer to ISIS/ISIL/IS/Islamic State by its Arabic a acronym, Daesh.
ReplyDeleteBecause Archer is a good show, dammit! (That I need to catch up on
)
ReplyDeleteBev,
ReplyDeleteBush had wanted to some close bases in Germany because they were expensive and pointless, he never proposed moving troops to Poland. That is clearly the sort of move that needs to be made though.
Kit and Anthony - If you think about it, strategically that was the plan. With moving our bases we were moving troops to man them. With unification of Germany, the bases in Germany were no longer "strategic" and they were expensive. And the Germans were no longer that interested in hosting the U.S. military in perpetuity. The Eastern Front had (has) moved ...well...east and Poland was a more than willing . host. Read the history of Poland and you will understand why. They have unwillingly been the "host" of the Austrian Empire, Germany and Russia. If Russia is allowed to take Ukraine, their next target will be Poland and the Baltics. They are already preparing as is Finland btw. Because with the backup of the U.S. military with them as a trusted and willing "ally" (there's that word again), they are left flapping in the wind. Now imagine what Israel is doing right now
ReplyDeleteBev,
ReplyDeleteWhat Bush was offering was to set up a missile defense shield protecting Poland -that Obama a cuddled as part of his "reset" with Russia.
Also, a bit of an update the Ukraine situation
ReplyDeleteA bomb went off in Kharkiv at a pro-government rally killing 2 and injuring at least 10. Kharkiv is one of the towns that the leader of the Donetsk rebels has vowed to grab after taking Mariupol.
The two groups did manage to maintain the pretense of a ceasefire with a prisoner exchange of 139 Ukrainian troops and 52 rebels.
Kit,
ReplyDeleteThe Bush plan was to set up 10 interceptors, and the target of the shield was Iran. It would take a lot more than 10 interceptors to even dent a nuclear attack from Russia (who has thousands of warheads).
Despite not being the target and not being practically impacted, Russia objected strongly because they viewed it as the camel's nose under the tent.
Its worth noting that Obama has promised Poland another missile defense system (Aegis) sometime after he leaves office. Funny how two two-term presidents in a row have forgone giving Poland missile defense systems but promised their successors will do so :) .
Anthony, Kit and Bev, I've always felt that Poland was a squandered opportunity for us. The Poles have been big fans of ours for some time. Not only do I think we should be putting bases (with ground troops) in Poland to guarantee their protection from Russia, but we should be giving them a free trade agreement with the US to separate them from the EU. The Poles have repeatedly shown that they would be fantastic allies.
ReplyDeleteIn terms of stopping the Russians, anything short of placing ground troops in each country (Poland, the Baltics, etc.) won't be enough. The Russians will only worry about a knee-jerk counterattack, not a reasoned counterattack or agreement to defend.
Andrew,
ReplyDeleteI agree on Poland. The US should be cozying up to them big time. Instead, Obama has pushed us farther away.
Andrew,
ReplyDeleteI think this comment by you above nails things:
Isn't it interesting that Obama was supposed to restore our reputation in the world, but we've never been so alone.
What is disturbing is I never thought our reputation never really restoring as much as we just needed to bring aboard more "allies" to make the world a safer place...to cause the seas to recede and to cause the Earth to begin to heal. My bad...
ReplyDeleteSo what do you think would happen if ISIS attacked the Vatican?
ReplyDeleteBTW, this question does not come out of nowhere. They have threatened the Vatican since Pope Francis spoke out against the beheadings of 21 Egyptian Coptic Christians.
Bev, I suspect that Obama will offer to let the Pope move to NYC, so long as he stops insulting gays.
ReplyDelete