Trumped Up Thoughts

I've thought for some time that Trump was finished. I've never seen him as having a legitimate chance, but it strikes me now that his time is all but up. Here's why I think he has no chance.

Here's the thing most people forget about our system: it's all about math. When you add the Northeast/mid-Atlantic moderate states to the moderate West Coast to the big moderate states in the Rustbelt (like Illinois and Minnesota) and the islands (like Puerto Rico), you get 84% of the delegates needed to win the nomination. The track record of every one of these states is to vote for the most respectable candidate. This means the establishment candidate: Romney, W Bush, Dole, Bush Sr. Reagan. Forty-eight percent of the rest of the delegates are at large in one form or another. Most of these are elected officials at the state or federal level, and they vote based on schmoozing.

Now think about what this means.

First, not one of these states is going to vote for Trump. Even someone like Cruz is too fringe for them. Seriously, ask yourself if you can imagine any circumstances where Maryland, California, New York, Massachusetts, Oregon, Vermont or Minnesota are going to vote for Trump. Not happening. And since these states don't vote until later in the process, things will be sorted out among the moderate/establishment types before they vote and they will all vote for the same person, i.e. Bush or Rubio.

That means that Bush/Rubio will only need 16% more of the delegates to win. That can come from states like Florida and New Mexico or the at-large delegates who make up 33% of the rest of the delegates. Bush has been gathering these delegates for four years and seems to have the vast, vast majority of them rounded up. If these people do abandon Bush, his supporters will most likely go to Rubio.

This means that no matter how many of the remaining states Trump or Cruz or whoever wins, the race is already decided. It's only a question of whether or not Bush has blown it and handed the race to Rubio.

What this means is that all the horserace talk you hear about Trump and Cruz and the such is misguided. It is for entertainment purposes only... the race is over. The start of the race may seem like a genuine race, but it isn't. Iowa, a fringe theocracy, starts and will pick Trump or Cruz or Jesus. At that point, the talk radio crowd will crow about their guy winning, but it's an illusion. The front part of the race creates a sense that any candidate can win, but the only two that really matter are New Hampshire and Florida because they decide which establishment candidate will prevail. There just aren't enough delegates to overcome the states I outlined above.

This is why neither Trump nor Cruz nor any other crazy ever had a chance. Bush and Rubio and Christie are the establishment candidates (though Christie has fallen out of favor) and Bush has lined up the vast majority of delegates. Trump and Cruz and Carson and whoever-else have always just been competing for second place.

Now, let me tell you why Trump is done as compared to Cruz or some other anybody-but-the-establishment-candidate candidate. Trump's appeal has been the appeal of a tantrum. He's stupid, uninformed and lacks judgement. If people answer honestly, they would tell you that they wouldn't trust to handle anything that affected them personally. But he's spouting off the insults they want to spout off themselves. He's a catharsis. Unfortunately for him, that only gets you so far, and now that it's getting serious, the fringe is looking for a candidate who they consider serious. That means Cruz, though Cruz has issues.

What's more, Trump is now suffering from the biggest wound that someone in his position can suffer from: he's gotten boring. There is nothing left Trump can do to outrage to anger or to make his supporters feel all giddy. That means he's losing interest. The result has been that Cruz in getting a second look in places like Iowa and the South.

Thoughts?