Idiots Out Wandering Around: IOWA

Here are my thoughts on Iowa and what this means. Interestingly, it seems likely to have cleared up the GOP race while hopelessly muddling the Democratic Race.

The Republicans

● Rubio: The Real Winner. I would dare say this wins the election for Rubio. The question for Rubio has always been whether or not he can capture the establishment vote. So far, that hasn’t been clear. This election, in very hostile territory, proved that he can. Not only did he score 23% in a state where he should have scored single digits, but his competition all scored very, very low single digits. That will kill all the other potential establishment candidates. So look for the establishment to consolidate behind him, which means donors and about 60% of primary voters will now switch to Rubio. That also means my analysis early in the year will hold true and he will win the nomination.

● Trump: The Biggest Loser. Trump’s campaign has been about smoke and mirrors. He’s projected the idea that some silent, angry majority existed out there waiting for a champion, and that this army of people would carry him to the White House. Even the polls helped support that idea with Trump showing as much as 43% support. But Trump’s distant second place showing (in a very Trumpy state) shatters the myth. It shows that his army of supporters either doesn’t exist or is too lazy to turn out, and they aren’t taking him anywhere. At this point, look for Trump to collapse rather quickly as the “Palin fringe” abandons him to find a “reel ‘merikan” who can destroy the RINO menace – most likely Cruz.

● Cruz: Winner. Cruz won because he beat Trump. But I hesitate to call Cruz a winner because Cruz is only a winner to the extent that he has won the crown of being the “anybody but ___” candidate of the fringe. That means he will win the southern states, but that’s about it. Even then, he still will need to fend of Trump for a few more rounds before Trump completely collapses.

● Carson: Loser. Carson’s fall from grace is complete. The fringe fell for him when they saw him as an Obama-attacking black man. But novelty acts rarely have staying power and with his background proving shaky, he mouth prone to gaffes, and his campaign being underfunded and disorganized, he’s finished, even as a VP contender.

● Paul: Loser. Paul has become forgettable. With the establishment and the fringe picking their champions, there’s just no room left for him.

● Bush: Loser. Bush’s campaign died in the summer, but he must have missed the memo. The election nailed the memo to his forehead. He will now be cut off from donors and his campaign is dead, whether he believes it or not.

● Christie: Loser. Christie was always a hard sell and it struck me that he was only relevant as an alternate if all the other moderates imploded. Rubio didn’t and so his role is over. His campaign is dead.

● Fiorina: Loser. She excited no one and now she’s finished. She likely didn’t even earn consideration as VP with her 1.86% performance.

● Kasi-hucka-torum-ilmore: Losers. With apologies to Animal House... 1.86%, 1.79%, 0.95%... 0.01%. Fat dumb and stupid is no way to go through life boys. Go back to your day jobs.

The Democrats

● Hillary: Loser. Ms. Inevitable has once again fallen flat on her face in Iowa. Last time, this led to fake tears, bringing out Bill, and then utter collapse as Obama mopped the floor with her. It’s unlikely the same will happen with old man Trotsky, but the fact that it seems possible has triggered every warning signal the Democrats have. By barely squeaking past a gag candidate, Hillary has shown that she cannot connect to voters, inspires no loyalty or enthusiasm, and can’t even organize a solid ground game. She is incompetent as a candidate in every possible way. This election will evoke all the doubts about her and send the Democrats into a frenzy to replace her.

Even worse, Sanders has inadvertently or intentionally raised some good questions about the result last night, which means that Hillary will find herself awash in conspiracy theory (something people already want to believe about her), which may backlash against her with the very voters she needs should she ultimately win.

● Sanders: Winner. Sanders came within a hair of beating Ms. Inevitable, and in the process he totally de-pantsed Hillary when it came to young voters. What he did was expose Hillary’s utter lack of competence. In so doing, he continued to buy himself a right to continue until Hillary proves that she can slaughter him. If she can’t prove that over the next few states, he suddenly becomes a very viable replacement for the failed Hillary.

● O’Malley: Loser. O’Malley came as close to humanly possible to getting negative support. That confirms that he has no draw, no ability to replace a fallen candidate, and no ability to act as spoiler. In other words, he’s electorally useless. His campaign was dead on announcement and remains dead.

● The Mystery Outsider: Winner. The Democrats are in a panic today. It looks like Hillary should still squeak to victory, but has proven that she’s an awful candidate which no serious party should run. That opens the door to a mystery candidate with some stature to jump in, especially as the alternatives to Hillary are even less electable. This is the time to jump in if your name is Cuomo, Biden, Bloomberg, Warren, or ???. Indeed, this is the chance to be seen as the party savior and to find near total support swinging your way almost overnight.