(1) A very reputable study of the minimum wage in Seattle found that while the overall number of jobs didn't decrease after the minimum wage rose to $12 an hour (on its way to $15), there was a significant shift in who was employed. Basically, employers dumped the low end employees -- the lowest skilled who are likely to get the minimum -- and replaced them with better, more expensive employees. This makes sense. Why pay someone $15 to struggle along when you can pay someone $17 and get quality? This has the left worried. Ostensibly, they are worried about the effect on the poor. But I think they are worried that this means that employers are starting to favor the competent... a world in which their supporters fair poorly.
(2) The left is running out of anti-Trump steam. They've lost every special election. The protests have basically ended... gee, where is the women's movement that we were told was coming? Their arguments remain shrill, but have all failed to turn up anything. Indeed, after hundreds of "this could be the end of Trump," there is nothing except in John McCain's fevered mind and a desire to see a Russian boogeyman in Trump's pocket. The Democratic leadership has turned to infighting. And even people like Letterman are admitting that they've lost interest and that they think the coverage needs to change before it turns people off. Too late.
(3) Enrollment keeps crashing at the U. of Missouri. Their enrollment is down 35% since 2015, when they gave in to the demands of a group of black racists. This is killing their budget. It's gotten so bad they actually want to rent out dorm rooms during football games to make revenue. The funny thing is that even though they gave in completely, black enrollment is down 42%. So giving in didn't even help with that.
(4) The Democrats keep thinking that their problem in elections is poor polling, i.e. an inability to accurately identify who is going to vote and who isn't and which way they are leaning. I think it's hilarious that they are stuck on process. Not a word is being spoken about how to actually win these people over. Of course, the problem there is that they have nothing to offer.
(5) The average age of the GOP leadership is in the 40s. The average age of the Democratic leadership is in the 70s. What does that tell you about the future of each party?
(6) I've become convinced that Trump won't hurt the GOP in the mid-terms. Why? For one thing, the public doesn't see him as a Republican. He's Trump, and his actions don't smear other people. Secondly, the public seems to have stuck with Trump through it all right now. Thirdly, the Democrats are offering things the public actively doesn't want. The GOP at least are neutrals.
1.Makes sense.
ReplyDelete2. Par for the course. Republicans have given Democrats little run against legislatively since Trump has failed to get much passed (as I predicted he has managed the presidency the same way he managed his campaign).
3. No surprise there.
4. I agree the problem isn't polling. See point 2.
5. Both parties have seen big talkers come from political obscurity to win power. A pro wrestler is more likely than a governor to be our next president in 2024 (like I've observed before wave president loose the wave eventually but they don't lose their 2nd election).
6. The public was firmly with Obama and Bush II at this point too. I agree that the Republicans probably won't suffer much in midterms because they haven't done much (like latter day Obama Trump has done most of his policymaking independent of Congress).
Power is a poisoned chalice but it poisons at different speeds (the deeper one drinks the faster it kills). The activist Obama held onto his majority for only two years, the moderate Bush held onto his for six (though it's also worth noting that there will be no unifying event like 9/11 because we live in more divided times).
I predict Trump will hold for four. By 2020 Trumpcare will be a thing, the legislature will have a couple budgets under its belt and there will have been time to see how stuff like the War on Terror and North Korea have played out.
Oh, one more thing. I saw a survey which said men tip more than women and Republicans tip more than Democrats. They tried to explain this away as "well, people with more money tip more," but that's BS.
ReplyDeleteI can say it's a BS explanation because women in the survey actually tipped hair dressers better than men did and the difference in tipping percentage was different for different occupations -- with Democrats always tipping less regardless. That means this is not income driven, it's "belief system" driven, i.e. "How much do I believe this job deserves?"
Frankly, this doesn't surprise me at all. I have seen my whole life that liberals simply don't tip as well as conservatives -- just as they don't give to charity. For all their talk of helping people, liberals are generally unwilling to use their own time or money to do that, and they have no empathy for people in low-end jobs... like waiters.
That women tip worse doesn't surprise me either. I would attribute it to two things. First, I have noticed that women don't like other women, so they tend to be harder on waitresses and service personnel, who are typically women... whereas men are suckers for women. Secondly, women (especially with children) tend to be more frugal than men.
Anthony, On number 2, I don't think it has anything to do with Trump's agenda. Their attacks on him have been tantrum based and I think they have simply run out of gas when they realized that the public wasn't with them on the tantrum.
ReplyDeleteYou're wrong! You're so wrong! Democrats just won 2 state senate seats in oklahoma from republicans! That's it! THE WAVE IS COMING!
ReplyDeleteLOL! Oh oh! Here come the Democrats surging back!
ReplyDeleteAndrew,
ReplyDeleteOn number 2 I was saying that the public will turn against Trump for the same reason it eventually turned against Clinton, Bush and Obama, not because the other party disliked them and spun lots of weird conspiracy theories but for their policies. Think Clinton's gun control, Bush's wide ranging War on Terror, Obamacare and Obama's failure to live up to his grandiose foreign policy promises.
At one point the public tires of the government and decides to give the opposition a chance.
Anthony, I agree. But the number 2 above wasn't really about the public. It was about the left who have left gone their own path of late into deep insanity. I think they've finally run out of steam.
ReplyDelete1. Hardly surprising, to say nothing of the automation that was previously discussed here. A lot of people are already finding the experience requirements for stuff they can easily do to be a frustrating barrier to entry for careers. You'd think there would be enough evidence to put this issue to bed for good by now but there never is it seems.
ReplyDelete2. Not surprising here either, but that's not going to stop the diehard tantrum brigade from keeping at it of course. It's bad if Letterman of all people is telling them to cool it, though.
3. Ha! Black enrollment in particular being down, and by a significant margin at that, is an especially fitting outcome for this debacle. Glad to see that prospective students in general want nothing to do with their nuttery.
4. Of course they are. Their narrative about being superior to all those flyover rubes trapped by their isms and phobias won't let them consider any other options.
5. Interesting note, but it makes sense when you compare the ages of prominent Republicans like Ryan and Rubio to those of prominent Democrats like Schumer and Pelosi. If nothing else the GOP's building a good farm team. Let's see if they can keep improving.
6. That makes sense. Trump has always come off as an independent candidate who happened to get a major party nomination so for better or worse most of the policy issues are on him. With the left being so rabid at the moment I don't think the Democrats are going to be able to put out a coherent message and get good candidates ready in time for 2018 and they seem short on 2020 challengers as well. With the way Trump is running things, making corrections to his failures and setbacks as he goes, I don't think and the GOP are going to have an Obamacare-grade albatross around their necks in 2018 either. 2022 is going to be the real challenge of their abilities and progress, I think.
- Daniel
Letterman apparently can only be the voice of reason for so long.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hollywoodintoto.com/sen-franken-climate-change-funny-die/