Happy New Year - Predictions

Here are some thoughts of what I see happening this year.

● The left is on the verge of fracturing. You can see it coming. The problem is that each group's claim to the party is that they are the true victims. Being a politicized victim means that your pain counts for more than other's pain. Hence, single white women and blacks are in direct competition for being the morally superior-ist. That puts them in direct competition.

Keep this in mind too... the white woman's movement is based on the idea that any woman's discomfort/embarrassment (either in sexual terms, i.e. he did something I see as creepy, or in "body positive" ways, i.e. don't call me fat!) should be criminalized. Black men, however, are cultural troglodytes in this regard. For one thing, they are men by definition, which makes them oppressors to these women. But even worse, black male culture is steeped in things white women have tried to rid from the culture for decades, resulting in snowflake males. At the same time, the black male movement demands absolution for any misconduct, up to and including rape and real crimes. This flies in the face of white women demands to criminalize pet peeves. That puts these groups in opposition. Meanwhile, the black woman movement seems to be based on the hatred of white women being seen as more beautiful, which they have morphed into the idea of white woman privilege. They are also particularly upset that black men prize white women, see e.g. almost any black rapper, athlete, or actor, which makes this anger visceral. The end result is that black women see white women as oppressors. White women see black men as oppressors. And black men seem largely absent from the debate, except for some doctrinaire leftists, who tend to be racial separatists and view all whites as oppressors.

That's not a coalition that can last. And you're seeing evidence of this. For one thing, black women are abandoning the chick rallies. They just cancelled one in California out of fear that only white women would show up. I can also show you a steady flow of articles by black women attacking white women for not understanding that black women have a morally superior claim to victimhood.

So what does this mean? I think it means that they will have an increasingly difficult to turn out their voters. It will also make it very hard to attract other minorities... if either group even wants to.

As an aside, I've got some really great evidence that leftism isn't making any inroads with the public. I'll present that next week.

● 2019 will also see an ugly fight between conservative Democrats, if there are any left, and the new socialist kids. This risks wiping out the gains the Democrats just made in the heart of the country.

● I suspect that a handful of Republicans will give the Democrats cover to impeach Trump.

● I still think Hillary dies before Trump's term is up. She seems to be hiding medical issues that make her physically infirm. I'm also suspecting now that Pelosi will leave office for medical reasons. She seems to be in the not-so-early phases of dementia.

● New government in France within weeks. Marcon seems to have pushed his base away too far and they are trying to bring him down now. Marcon has actually been a friend of the US, so I don't see this as a good thing.

● Brazil is going to be interesting to watch. They are sending out snipers to shoot armed criminals now without warning. On the heels of the Philippines war on drug dealers, this is an interesting step away from the global liberalism of the past half century.

● There are lots of things the Democrats could do which Trump would sign: gun control, path to citizenship, etc. But watching them handle budget issue, I'm fairly certain they don't want anything to happen until after 2020... except Trump smears.

● Lastly, I think there's a short, minor recession coming this year. Duck and cover.