Interesting Shift

We're on the verge of Christmas, so be ready. Word on the street is that a man in a red suit is intending to commit a home invasion on your place. While you're waiting for that, here's an interesting observation about the election... specifically, the Democratic race.

They suck.

Just kidding. No, I'm not kidding about them sucking, I'm kidding that that was the observation. The real observation is that I'm seeing something that tells me the race just crystallized down to two candidates: Buttguy for moderates and Warren for moderates pretending to be progressives. Seriously.

What brought on this conclusion? The past two days have seen a strange surge in terms of famous people (especially Hollywood types, but others too) endorsing either Buttguy or Warren. It's like a damn broke. The pattern seems to be that white male moderates (and cross-over Republicans) are endorsing Buttguy. This includes Kevin Costner, by the way. At the same time, women and moderate blacks have been backing Warren. Confirming this shift, both Buttguy and Warren were the two targets at the last debate. That means the others see them as the leaders.

This is interesting in several ways. First, it leaves out Biden. I'm not surprised by that actually. For while Biden still leads Buttguy, the momentum is going in Buttguy's direction. Buttguy is rising and the media loves him. He's the one the progressives fear too and they've been smearing him hard, while moderates are rallying around him. At the same time, Biden's support is evaporating, the media does not love him, Obama does not support him and he's made some serious missteps. Letting it be known he would only serve one term is a huge mistake. So it's easy to see Buttguy ascending whereas Biden is fading away. I think this will prove itself in upcoming polls soon enough.

On the other hand, Warren is a strange choice for progressives. They've been slamming her for weeks now as not really progressive. So how can she be their candidate? These are different "progressives." These are fake progressives, like Obama, who have latched onto her because they see her as center left and a woman and that appeals to them. Real progressives have been savaging her for weeks now.

What I think is going on is that desperate moderates have realized that Biden is a dry well, so they have looked for another candidate. The males want Buttguy and are straight up selling him as a moderate who can replace Biden. The females want their female candidate and Warren is the only who doesn't seem nuts. But to keep other women in line, they need to sell her as a progressive rather than moderate (which means "old Democratic party" to women). Hence, she's mislabeled.

If both succeed, and I think they will, the race will come down to Buttguy for moderates and Warren for everyone else. Who wins that? Hard to tell. I don't know that Buttguy can attract old people or blacks like Biden. I don't think he can attract women who are the biggest voting block for Democrats. But the media will push his electability. That is a strong influence. Is it enough? Could be. Democrats are sheep, after all. The problem is: either one will be bad for Democrats. If either wins progressives will vote third party. If Buttguy wins, female turnout will be depressed. If Warren wins, she's perhaps one of the worst campaigners they have and her appeal is elitist; she'll never reach white male workers. Those are all bad things for the Democrats.

Who will win? Buttguy. He's more likable, more electable, and has media support. Will he beat Trump? I don't think so. I think the progressives walk and neither candidate brings back white males.

Thoughts?