I'll get off the Ukraine topic soon, but I find myself amazed. The Ukrainian people are just inspired. Every time I turn around, there is some group of them standing in front of a tank, a soldier sacrificing his life for his colleagues, or a group stoically flipping the bird at impossible odds. They've called them the DIY army because everyone is helping out in every way they can. This is the human spirit at its highest point. I am thankful I have been alive to witness this.
That said, there are others...
I think now, this war is turning against Putin. I think his army and band of hired thugs will be defeated on the ground because they lack supplies, munitions and morale. There are some things that worry me though:
That said, there are others...
● A "star" from Dancing With The Stars is in the Ukraine. The big b*tch has been updating people by twitter as he flees with the women and children, telling us how traumatized he is. What a shameful display of narcissism and cowardice. If you're going to run away as women and children and old men defend your country, at least have the good taste not to whine about how hard it's been on you. And maybe step on a mine or something.Elon Musk impresses me though. Yes, I hate Tesla drivers. But Musk seems to be a practical guy willing to do what's right. In this case, he's helping keep the internet running in the Ukraine at the request of the Ukrainian government. Canada stepped up too. While the rest of the world was trying to figure out how to sanction Russia without it costing them anything, Canada flat out cancelled all exports (in particular including $720 million in minerals and aircraft parts) and banned Russian planes from their airspace. Good for them! There are a lot of brave people in Russia too. Officials signing letters of opposition. People protesting. Apparently some military officers have been shot for opposing the plan. These people have taken real risks to do this because Putin is a monster. That is speaking truth to real power. Let's not forget them.
● Our political class look like a bunch of spoiled children as they sling mud at each other and squeal how all the others are sissies... just sissies. "Do you know what I do with Putin if I were in charge?" I don't know, does it involve knee pads? Now is not the time for politics, and yet we have Trumpers slapping at everyone, Bernie's commune blaming the US, the race baiters looking for racism, and Biden doing his fake tough-guy squint. I hate that. It shows he thinks this is all a game. Apparently, the fact that good people are needlessly dying and the world is threatened isn't reason enough for this group to stop bickering and whining about pet peeves. It's kind of surreal and sickening.
● All the celebrities claiming they "stand with Ukraine" remind me how eagerly celebrities exploit crises with empty gestures.
● Guilty companies are now virtue signalling by loudly dropping the investments they made in Putin's war machine.
I think now, this war is turning against Putin. I think his army and band of hired thugs will be defeated on the ground because they lack supplies, munitions and morale. There are some things that worry me though:
● I am worried that Putin is considering a nuclear strike. It fits his worldview, especially with reports that the Russian security forces are betraying him in increasing numbers -- apparently Russian security has been feeding information to the Ukrainians. For a definitional-paranoid like a dictator, to feel that he's surrounded by disloyalty has historically led to apocalyptic actions. And the mere fact Putin has made the threat of using nuclear weapons is so far beyond what is acceptable that I think we can no longer know his limits or assume he is rational.Thoughts?
● Even if we get through this unscathed, I worry that "the establishment" will now have a fetish for using sanctions against people it doesn't like. Forget that Putin is as close to Hitler as you can get, making this a truly special case, these people will see the usefulness of this and will start aiming for leaders who don't submit to their peeves.
● I also think this has proven that American hardware and American soldiers are in such a special class (Russia was supposedly pretty close to our level after 10 years of modernization and training) that this will make China rethink its strategy. A rational China would move toward conciliation. But that's not China. I think they look for something evil and more effective to stand up to us. That worries me.
Sadly, I've suffered and recovered from too many bouts of Gell-Mann Amnesia to believe much of anything. I feel constantly the sense that I am being propagandized from all sides. Even after two years of ever-shifting covid rules, the current media push feels more intense, somehow.
ReplyDeleteAgreed tryanmax, its just a fog of propaganda from the media… more so than usual! How that's even possible considering our medias track record is mind bending to say the least lol.
ReplyDeleteThere have been so many contradictions reported over the last 48hrs that I’m having a hard time even forming a decent opinion on the whole Ukraine situation. Its why I haven’t posted much over the last few days.
There is so much BS being shoveled right now, its hard for me to even unpack it all in one post. Some examples however:
A lot of media sources are presenting doctored photos as real. On the other-hand, many real photos have turned out to be from events earlier in the year that have nothing to do with the current conflict… yet they are being reported on as if they are recent photos taken over the last day.
One minute a source claims Russia is on the verge of taking Kyiv, and the Ukrainian resistance is collapsing. Within an hour the same source is claiming the Ukrainian Resistance is strong and fighting off Russia with great success.
I could go on but it would just turn into a wall of text.
You see my point? Its hard for me to formulate an informed opinion with all the “fake news”. I hate that term, but it applies in this situation.
Props to you Andrew, your article hits several points well. It gives me a bit more perspective considering all the fog surrounding the Ukraine war. I appreciate it! I’ll drop a comment on your SOTU article after I get a chance to go watch Biden's bowl movement. Maybe sometime tomorrow? Good night.
-Kyle.
There are huge amounts of propaganda coming from all sides, especially our media. The things is, the Russians are so clearly in the wrong that I don't see any reason to hold it against the Ukrainians. I just ignore it.
ReplyDeleteWhat's interesting to me is that both the Russians and the Ukrainians are so bad at it that I find it fairly easy to see what's propaganda and what's likely real. They lie very poorly. Our media's version is also easy to see though because they want to sell sentiment... look at the dead grandma!
To try to find the facts, I look for sources who get their information somewhere reliable. For example, our intelligence people are clearly feeding the Ukrainians. They admit as much, but downplay it. Yet, the Ukrainians don't have the facilities to report the things our generals attribute to them. Basically, our generals are sharing our intelligence with us under the guise of it being from the Ukrainians, but it's not. And when they talks around a topic to hide that, what they talk around is the real news.
Based on that, I trust articles written on a technical level (like assessments of drones in Air Force journals). I trust first person observations for what is shown, not what is analyzed. I trust active duty American or British personnel when they talk about Ukrainian needs.
I distrust articles based on old information already cycled. I distrust articles proclaiming the unknowable, like the UN's assessment of refugee numbers they pulled out of their butts. I distrust speculation from former whatnots. I distrust claims of success by either side.
I also do what I've always told you all to do and ignore what the person is selling but look at the background and basis upon which they are making the claim. Often, there are these fascinating throwaway lines which are the real news.
For example, in all the glory-hounding about the Ukrainians killing the Chechen hit squad, there was one tiny line from an American intelligence officer which said that some Russian security people told the Ukrainians where they were and the Ukrainians hit them with a missile. This is a wealth of information about what kind of attacks are really happening and the loyalty and moral of the Russian forces. It's also not what anyone reported, because they bought the idea of a bloody special forces attack.
The truth is there if you cut through the fairy tales.
Here's another good example. Putin is apparently promising $45,000 to any soldier who gets killed in Ukraine. This is fact because we saw Putin say it. What does it mean though?
ReplyDeleteConventional media wisdom: morale is low, this is meant to shore up the troops. And that is how it is being reported.
But is that true? No. Troops don't fight for money. They fight mainly for each other. They also fight for anger or patriotism or fear. Almost no one fights for money. Moreover, money after you're dead doesn't really excite anyone. So such an offer is meaningless. So why offer it? And why announce it to the world?
Because the offer wasn't meant for the troops. It was meant to placate Russian mothers whose kids are starting to come home in bags. This offer tells us Putin is afraid of the public and wants to offer a carrot (and stick if you take it away) to keep these mothers from banding together and protesting. That's why it was announced to the world, to reach mothers, not soldiers.
(As an aside, this means a big number of casualties are coming, or he wouldn't bother.)
Now consider the brilliance of the Ukrainians saying that any mother who sees that her son has been captured (on their website) can come get him. This GLUES Russian eyes to Ukraine's website day after day to make sure their kid is not there, which does the following: (1) brings mothers anguish every day, leading to pent up rage at Putin, and (2) prevents Putin from cutting off their internet access because that will lead to riots when mothers can't check anymore.
We know this is important because the Ukrainians have repeatedly tried to make sure the internet keeps working so they don't get cut off. So their offer makes total sense (and we know it's real because we saw it made), and Putin's response now makes even more sense.
Yet, you won't see that on the news because they get twisted in the sentimentality both sides are offering.
As an aside, the Ukrainian offer also sounds really nice to the press, as if the Ukrainians don't want to fight and just want to send people home -- even as we know no one can actually follow up on the offer because you can't get there or get home again.
So when you see stories like this, to know the truth, work out the logic and look at what causes what. They're all lying, but their lies reveal the truth.
Good point Andrew, Putin is clearly the aggressor here. He has always been an abusive dictator and an over all horrible power hungry human. To hell with him.
ReplyDeleteMore to the point, The Ukraine people have over all been awesome throughout all this.
Thanks for sharing your process for weeding out sources in all this; I’ll keep it in mind while going through the news about the Ukraine War as it unfolds…
It feels like were living in an episode from The X-Files. Trust no one lol. I’m not trying to come off as un-serious, however all these problems coming down at once has just becoming so ridiculous and tiresome. The Biden admin started as a train wreck, and now its turned into a full on Nuclear melt down.
-Kyle