There's a new poll out. I am not a fan of polls, but this one is interesting. Here are the results. I'll discuss what interests me below.
The media is spinning this using the top number which is not on the chart. The top number says that (1) Biden beats Trump in a rematch (duh) and (2) the public now favors the Democrats over the Republicans 48% to 45%. The media sees that as significant, but it's actually meaningless. Not only is it all within the margin of error, but as I noted, the end of the summer is Biden's highwater mark. Also, these races are all local or must be looked at state by state to be meaningful. A 3% national lead is easily achieved in California, which hides all the other states. So this poll simply cannot give an informed answer as to these two questions.
That said, there is interesting information. Observe:
1. Trump's support is very limited, as expected. About 18% of the public are fan-girling Trump, about 37% hate him. The rest don't see this election as being about him. Even among Republicans, only 36% fan-girl Trump, the rest do not. Supporting this is the warning in plain sight in the Alaska election. Palin lost because a majority of GOP voters preferred a Democrat to her as a second choice. Usually, people threaten not to vote for the competitor in the general election, but rarely follow through. This was an instance where the voters followed through en mass. That's a huge warning. Add in the MAGA candidates blowing easy-win elections and it's pretty clear the public is done with this sh*t. The good news it that the low number who think this is about Trump suggest that the damage he does will be endurable for the party, i.e. there will be no broad wipeout. They will cost us the Senate though with bad candidates.
As an aside, if Trump really had nuclear secrets, as is being reported, then not only is he going to jail, but there is no possible excuse for his conduct. There is NO valid reason to take those. As that sinks in, look for the knives to come out. Even Drudge speculated Trump might have taken them sell them, which would be treason. Gee, surprise.
2. Aside from the top number, this polling is terrible for the Democrats! The number who see the election as about supporting Biden's agenda is only 33%. That's terrible support and suggests he's been a failure. This has been obvious actually from them calling his rise to 44% "momentum." No one likes what he's doing. The man is a failure. He's also primed for an epic loss.
3. 54% say economic policy needs to change. With the economy being the big factor in this election, that means a landslide against Biden. Only 22% believe in Biden's economic plan. That spells doom. This is why the Democrats want this election be about anything but the economy, but it's largely not working (Trump exluded). These numbers actually should result in a landslide under normal circumstances.
4. The voting rights and bipartisanship questions are nebulous at best and, I think, show the media continues to mistake bumperstickers for actual concerns. Seriously, who doesn't want to see bipartisanship? But of course, it all depends on how you define bipartisanship, doesn't it? Personally, I'd love to see Democrats finally reaching across the aisle and voting for the things I believe. Is that what they mean by bipartisanship? Bipartisanship... a meaningless buzzword.
As for the voting rights question, that captures all the disenfranchisement crap on the left and Trump's blather about stolen elections as well the generally held belief that we believe people should vote. In other words, left, right and pretty much everyone should accept it but for different reasons. That makes the question meaningless.
5. The really good news is that abortion seems to be something only the fringes care about, with 43% basically saying they don't care. That will help the GOP in this election. All bets are off in the future with the GOP representing the 18% fringe, but for now, 65% of the GOP and 43% of the public overall don't see abortion mattering this time. Those are the people who will decide this election. On the plus side, the number caring about Trump appears even smaller, so to a large degree, the GOP seems to have dodged a bullet in these numbers. The one bullet they could not dodge was in candidate selection where some winnable states are now lost because of MAGA candidates.
All told, my projection holds. The GOP captures the House but loses the Senate because of bad candidate choice.
Thoughts?
That said, there is interesting information. Observe:
1. Trump's support is very limited, as expected. About 18% of the public are fan-girling Trump, about 37% hate him. The rest don't see this election as being about him. Even among Republicans, only 36% fan-girl Trump, the rest do not. Supporting this is the warning in plain sight in the Alaska election. Palin lost because a majority of GOP voters preferred a Democrat to her as a second choice. Usually, people threaten not to vote for the competitor in the general election, but rarely follow through. This was an instance where the voters followed through en mass. That's a huge warning. Add in the MAGA candidates blowing easy-win elections and it's pretty clear the public is done with this sh*t. The good news it that the low number who think this is about Trump suggest that the damage he does will be endurable for the party, i.e. there will be no broad wipeout. They will cost us the Senate though with bad candidates.
As an aside, if Trump really had nuclear secrets, as is being reported, then not only is he going to jail, but there is no possible excuse for his conduct. There is NO valid reason to take those. As that sinks in, look for the knives to come out. Even Drudge speculated Trump might have taken them sell them, which would be treason. Gee, surprise.
2. Aside from the top number, this polling is terrible for the Democrats! The number who see the election as about supporting Biden's agenda is only 33%. That's terrible support and suggests he's been a failure. This has been obvious actually from them calling his rise to 44% "momentum." No one likes what he's doing. The man is a failure. He's also primed for an epic loss.
3. 54% say economic policy needs to change. With the economy being the big factor in this election, that means a landslide against Biden. Only 22% believe in Biden's economic plan. That spells doom. This is why the Democrats want this election be about anything but the economy, but it's largely not working (Trump exluded). These numbers actually should result in a landslide under normal circumstances.
4. The voting rights and bipartisanship questions are nebulous at best and, I think, show the media continues to mistake bumperstickers for actual concerns. Seriously, who doesn't want to see bipartisanship? But of course, it all depends on how you define bipartisanship, doesn't it? Personally, I'd love to see Democrats finally reaching across the aisle and voting for the things I believe. Is that what they mean by bipartisanship? Bipartisanship... a meaningless buzzword.
As for the voting rights question, that captures all the disenfranchisement crap on the left and Trump's blather about stolen elections as well the generally held belief that we believe people should vote. In other words, left, right and pretty much everyone should accept it but for different reasons. That makes the question meaningless.
5. The really good news is that abortion seems to be something only the fringes care about, with 43% basically saying they don't care. That will help the GOP in this election. All bets are off in the future with the GOP representing the 18% fringe, but for now, 65% of the GOP and 43% of the public overall don't see abortion mattering this time. Those are the people who will decide this election. On the plus side, the number caring about Trump appears even smaller, so to a large degree, the GOP seems to have dodged a bullet in these numbers. The one bullet they could not dodge was in candidate selection where some winnable states are now lost because of MAGA candidates.
All told, my projection holds. The GOP captures the House but loses the Senate because of bad candidate choice.
Thoughts?
OT: Just saw the news. UK's Queen Elizabeth has died at 96.
ReplyDeleteIt's quite sad. She was an institution and a rock. RIP
ReplyDeleteThat was me...
ReplyDelete