Who Is Behind The Hamas Attack?

I know the issue of who is behind this attack keeps coming up. I think it's worth discussing. Before we do, however, please note that this is ALL GUESSWORK... looking at motives, that's it. There is no evidence of collusion yet by anyone, and I am not saying there is. That said, let's talk about who gains and loses from this as we watch to see if any evidence of collusion ever does appear (Biden is apparently looking for evidence of Iranian involvement).

(1) Hamas alone. This is the most obvious choice. They are blinded by obsession. They are struggling with relevance because they only matter when engaged in crisis and right now they are saddled with the responsibility of running Gaza. It's hard to be liked when you can't arrange for trash pickup. This attack makes them relevant again. Also, the more people the Israelis kill, the more likely they are that the world supports them.

Other reasons to think it's only them: There were only a couple hundred involved, apparently. That makes this a small operation, which suggests intimacy rather than state sanction. Half of Hamas is apparently upset these guys took women and children hostage. That suggests this was a faction rather than the whole thing, again suggesting this was nothing official. The West Bank did not get involved. If this was coordinated, why not do a general Palestinian uprising? Likewise, there were no terror attacks in third countries by Palestinian operatives. Again, this suggests a rogue faction and not any sort of official backing.

(2) Iran. They back the Palestinians to cause chaos in the West. Iran likes to be seen as a power player and this fits that. They have also been getting pretensions lately since the Russians have come begging them for equipment to use in Ukraine... Too. Big. For. Their. Britches. Also, Iran and Saudi are enemies and the US is reconciling with Saudi after Biden fractured the relationship initially. This could have been seen as a way to splinter that relationship again.

On the other hand, this could just as easily unite the Saudis and the US... friends forgive when faced with danger. Moreover, Iran usually starts playing games when they are involved in something... hit and runs at tankers, that sort of thing. Yet, they've been silent this time. Also, there apparently isn't much internal support for this with their public. Iran is involved at least to the extent of supporting Hamas, and they may have a veto on attacks. Other than that, though, there isn't evidence yet of them encouraging this or partaking.

(3) Russia. Russia could certainly use the distraction. This kind of conflict could draw in the US, stopping weapons exports to Ukraine. It will splinter Europe and the US, which could cause dissent on Ukraine. Further, the Ukrainians were begging the Israelis for weapons this past month. This ends that as Israel can't afford to spare them now. And Putin is a games player who might think of this kind of move. The problem is, Russia doesn't have much sway with the Palestinians anymore and there's really no evidence of Russian backing. If this theory makes sense, it makes the most sense as a favor Russia asked of Iran... "please cause a distraction." If that proves true, look for Russian anti-aircraft batteries to start appearing in Iran as the price. Most likely though, Russia was not involved.

(4) Al Qaeda/Taliban. The Taliban has for years proven to be an internal force. Civil warriors, not external terrorists. They are unlikely to be involved. Al Qaeda would love to attack Israel and the US, but they haven't claimed a hand in this... which they always do. Also, moving into Palestine would step on Iranian toes. I can't see either group being involved here.

(5) Saudi. Kind of far fetched, but the Saudis are dirty players and this might be a good way to bring themselves back into the good graces of the Americans by making us focus on Iran as the regional bad guy. They need help in a war they are fighting in Yemen and a change of image: the enemy of my enemy is my closest friend and weapon's supplier. That's pretty complicated reasoning and the new prince running Saudi seems more economically focused, which means he wants stability, so I dismiss it. But I can't say it's impossible.

(6) Israel: Could it be that a hated Prime Minister stages a black flag operation to make himself a victim and save his regime? No. That's paranoid logic... but expect to hear it from paranoids and anti-Israelis.