Andrew
Saturday, December 24, 2022
Merry Christmas Everyone!
Andrew
Monday, December 12, 2022
Some Election Follow Up
There has been quite a bit of election news under the radar, so I thought I would get you all up to date.
1. Republicans seem finally to be getting how much of a disaster Trump caused the GOP. I think he's done. But we'll see... cockroaches and all. Biden trying to elevate Marjorie Green is pretty good evidence that Trump is old news and he needs a new lunatic to shadowbox, so is the dismissive tenor of the news articles about him lately. It's also a good sign that several governors are starting to get good press. The latest to be recognized nationally are the Governor of Virginia and the retired Governor of Maryland.
2. Sinema left the Democratic Party, as you may have heard. I'm not sure if you heard why. The reason she left is that she realized she could not win the Democratic primary next cycle because their party no longer tolerates anything but raving lunatics. She had something like 17% support in the party. She's betting that she can win over Arizonans by being a moderate liberal and beating the clowns to left of her and the next joker on the right. It's a hard road to go, but it's honestly her only option at this point. Do I think it might work? Eh. It has a chance. The Dems and the Repubs will play into her hands and nominate lunatics, and she can leverage her fame to make the whole thing plausible... but in the modern era, people tend to vote out of utter terror that the other side will win. That doesn't bode well for her wedging off people from both parties. Ultimately, I think she sinks.
3. There are people speculating Joe Manchin will jump next, but there's no reason for him to do that. West Virginians are not as party-bound as people in other states. They vote for whoever brings the most bucks back to the state, and Manchin is good at that. Plus, he's generally liked in the state and I think people will vote for him no matter what party he is in, i.e. he doesn't need to fear the state's rightward drift. At the same time, the Dems in West Virginia aren't California Dems, they are coal mine worker Dems who purr when you whisper union words. He fits that demographic perfectly.
4. There was this fascinating 'ha ha' article from MSNBC claiming that the GOP's supposed surge with Hispanics didn't happen as planned. The thing is, all the evidence they cite suggests a continued rightward drift of Hispanics. They noted that (1) Hispanics voted in "roughly" the same percentages as last time -- meaning we kept the increased numbers we got last time, (2) Florida had to be excluded to make the article work because Hispanics in Florida did jump right in vast numbers, and (3) wherever the Dems outspent the GOP by 5 to 1, Hispanic numbers did not increase, but anything less than that did show a GOP drift - which is hardly a ringing endorsement of MSNBC's point. They did note that in Pennsylvania, Puerto Ricans still voted in large numbers for the Dems.
So... the GOP kept the significant gains they made last time, made small improvements across the country except with Puerto Ricans, and dominated Florida. That sounds kind of like GOP improvement, especially as the GOP made big gains throughout South Texas. Not to mention, realignments don't happen all at once. It took 30-40 years for the Democratic South to become the Republican South. We've seen a huge jump for 8-10 years already. And don't forget, the overall numbers are so close nationally that even a couple percentage points makes a huge difference. I think this bodes well.
5. Most fascinating of all, young people (those under 29) shifted right significantly. During Biden v. Trump, the gap was +25 Biden in that age group. This time it was +12 Dems. That means the gap got cut in half. What makes this even more interesting is that these people are the most woke too. I wonder if we're looking at some sort of anti-woke backlash? One thing is for sure, Biden's student loan bribe didn't work.
All told this is good news. So long as the House GOP doesn't, uh, defecate the bed, then things are looking good for the next election cycle and possibly the future overall. They need to not fight, pass an agenda (knowing the Dems will kill it) and not get sucked into being pissy. We shall see.
Thoughts?
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1. Republicans seem finally to be getting how much of a disaster Trump caused the GOP. I think he's done. But we'll see... cockroaches and all. Biden trying to elevate Marjorie Green is pretty good evidence that Trump is old news and he needs a new lunatic to shadowbox, so is the dismissive tenor of the news articles about him lately. It's also a good sign that several governors are starting to get good press. The latest to be recognized nationally are the Governor of Virginia and the retired Governor of Maryland.
2. Sinema left the Democratic Party, as you may have heard. I'm not sure if you heard why. The reason she left is that she realized she could not win the Democratic primary next cycle because their party no longer tolerates anything but raving lunatics. She had something like 17% support in the party. She's betting that she can win over Arizonans by being a moderate liberal and beating the clowns to left of her and the next joker on the right. It's a hard road to go, but it's honestly her only option at this point. Do I think it might work? Eh. It has a chance. The Dems and the Repubs will play into her hands and nominate lunatics, and she can leverage her fame to make the whole thing plausible... but in the modern era, people tend to vote out of utter terror that the other side will win. That doesn't bode well for her wedging off people from both parties. Ultimately, I think she sinks.
3. There are people speculating Joe Manchin will jump next, but there's no reason for him to do that. West Virginians are not as party-bound as people in other states. They vote for whoever brings the most bucks back to the state, and Manchin is good at that. Plus, he's generally liked in the state and I think people will vote for him no matter what party he is in, i.e. he doesn't need to fear the state's rightward drift. At the same time, the Dems in West Virginia aren't California Dems, they are coal mine worker Dems who purr when you whisper union words. He fits that demographic perfectly.
4. There was this fascinating 'ha ha' article from MSNBC claiming that the GOP's supposed surge with Hispanics didn't happen as planned. The thing is, all the evidence they cite suggests a continued rightward drift of Hispanics. They noted that (1) Hispanics voted in "roughly" the same percentages as last time -- meaning we kept the increased numbers we got last time, (2) Florida had to be excluded to make the article work because Hispanics in Florida did jump right in vast numbers, and (3) wherever the Dems outspent the GOP by 5 to 1, Hispanic numbers did not increase, but anything less than that did show a GOP drift - which is hardly a ringing endorsement of MSNBC's point. They did note that in Pennsylvania, Puerto Ricans still voted in large numbers for the Dems.
So... the GOP kept the significant gains they made last time, made small improvements across the country except with Puerto Ricans, and dominated Florida. That sounds kind of like GOP improvement, especially as the GOP made big gains throughout South Texas. Not to mention, realignments don't happen all at once. It took 30-40 years for the Democratic South to become the Republican South. We've seen a huge jump for 8-10 years already. And don't forget, the overall numbers are so close nationally that even a couple percentage points makes a huge difference. I think this bodes well.
5. Most fascinating of all, young people (those under 29) shifted right significantly. During Biden v. Trump, the gap was +25 Biden in that age group. This time it was +12 Dems. That means the gap got cut in half. What makes this even more interesting is that these people are the most woke too. I wonder if we're looking at some sort of anti-woke backlash? One thing is for sure, Biden's student loan bribe didn't work.
All told this is good news. So long as the House GOP doesn't, uh, defecate the bed, then things are looking good for the next election cycle and possibly the future overall. They need to not fight, pass an agenda (knowing the Dems will kill it) and not get sucked into being pissy. We shall see.
Thoughts?
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