The Fringe Is Routed

This comes from many months of careful observation, hence it's long. But it's worth reading. While talk radio hosts continue to talk up their heroic Ted Cruz and his secret army of reel ‘merikans who are only minutes away from sweeping away the hateful GOP, the truth is that the fringe has lost and is in full collapse. Here is what you won’t hear from talk radio.

● Embracing The Enemy. In 2010, the Tea Party caught people off guard by unseating a handful of Republican moderates who had been in their seats for a very long time. At first, this was a good thing. But then the Tea Party morphed into crazytown and their primary goal (only goal actually) became making war against the GOP. (Michelle Malkin has actually admitted that "[t]his to me is much more fascinating than the usual left-right battles.")

The GOP, most of whom sit in safe seats, suddenly realized that the new danger didn’t come from the Democrats to their left, it came from a challenge to their right. Thus, the GOP embraced the Tea Party to protect themselves from challengers. And for the next three years, the GOP kowtowed to these people.

Unfortunately, trying to appease the insane never works and the GOP discovered that nothing they did was ever enough. No matter what the GOP did, the fringe continued to hate them and to try to destroy them. Moreover, the more entangled they become with the fringe, the further away they drove the public. As a result, the GOP has been flirting with permanent minority status.

● The First Victory. After November 2012, things changed. The GOP decided that they needed to move away from the fringe and they began the process. They developed a strategy for dealing with fringe candidates, tested it, and are now applying it. At the same time, they started introducing an agenda to turn them back into a responsible party again. The results have been dramatic, even if they are largely behind the scenes.

The strategy they employed started with this. When Liz Cheney decided to attack Republican incumbent Sen. Mike Enzi, the fringe jumped onboard as usual. This was one of about a dozen attempts to "primary" sitting Republicans. At the time, groups like Tea Party Express and Freedom Works declared that Cheney would sweep to victory, as would a dozen others, and they would finally unseat the RINO leadership.

But this time, the GOP fought back. First, they gave a massive number of endorsements to Enzi and they made it clear that they would not simply stand on the sidelines. They also ridiculed the Senate Conservatives Fund (Cruz’s group) as being in the business of replacing Republicans with Democrats, which is essentially all Cruz has accomplished. The results were strong and immediate. Cheney’s candidacy collapsed and she withdrew for “family health” reasons.

Within days of her withdrawal, the fringe did what they always do: they disowned her. Indeed, a number of people who had been praising her as a reel ‘merikan only days before suddenly dismissed her as an establishment carpetbagger. Cult-like groups always work this way because they cannot afford failure. More was coming...

● The Turning Point. As Wyoming played out, Ted Cruz decided to make a power play in Washington. He saw an opportunity to embarrass the GOP leadership by demanding a shutdown. He figured that the GOP leadership would never act so irresponsibly, so he was safe making the demand because he knew they would never give him what he wanted. Essentially, he had a free pass to thump his chest and claim to be the only courageous Republican. He also used the opportunity to spread the idea that the public was secretly with him and that they would rally to a shutdown, which would expose the GOP leadership as out of touch. Again, he could make this claim because he knew it would never be tested. He even got the House GOP backbench to support him in an effort to make Boehner look like a fool.

It was a fantastic bluff. Not only did it allow him to define himself as better than everyone else in the GOP, i.e. as the only genuine conservative in a nest of RINOs, but it let him offer the Kool-Aid of the “secret majority” to his fringe audience all without any fear that his claim would ever be exposed. The fringe, naturally, jumped on this like retards humping a doorknob and they all parroted how cowardly the leadership was and how Cruz must be made the new leader.

Then it went wrong. Boehner shrewdly gave Cruz what he wanted and the government shut down. This became the real turning point. See, it turns out the public did not support Cruz and the fringe. To the contrary, around 90% blamed the GOP for shutting down the government and felt they had acted irresponsibly. Moreover, the deal that was needed to end the shutdown wiped out sequestration. Cruz had, as usual, set the cause of conservatism back.

More importantly, however, while this was going on, Cruz’s behavior exposed him. When the shutdown first happened, Cruz actually refused to say whether or not he supported what had been his own idea. He was waiting to see how it played. And when it went sour fast, he denied that this had been his idea at all. Even four months later, he continued to deny this. Said Cruz on Face the Nation:

“I didn't threaten to shut down the government the last time. I don't think we should ever shut down the government. I repeatedly voted to fund the federal government.”

Of course, evidence to the contrary abounds all over the net.

What this did was expose Cruz. Intelligent conservatives would now see that he was a liar who used them for personal gain, and they talked about how shocked they were when he admitted that he had no exit strategy for the shutdown, i.e. no purpose in doing it. Conservatives like Kelly Ayotte apparently met him with quite a fury. And when Cruz tired again recently to cause a shutdown and then forced the GOP to vote for the budget to overcome his filibuster, he found no supporters. The Wall Street Journal’s conservative editorial page even called Cruz, “the Minority Maker” and chastised him for making the GOP “walk the plank on a meaningless debt ceiling vote.” Outside of the deep fringe, the love and blind faith is gone.

● Open Season. Immediately after the collapse of the shutdown, Boehner verbally attacked the fringe by calling groups like The Heritage Foundation and FreedomWorks “ridiculous” and claiming they had “lost all credibility.” Blogs like Hot Air quickly mocked this as a tantrum and called him whiny, but they missed the point. Boehner’s message wasn’t intended to win the fringe, it was intended to tell the rest of the GOP that it was open season on the fringe. And open season it became.

Since Boehner’s comments, there have been a steady stream of attacks on the fringe from people like Tom Coburn, Charles Krauthammer and Jennifer Rubin. The GOP changed its election rules to make it harder for small candidates to win primaries and to force everything to wrap up quicker, i.e. to make another Santorum unlikely. The GOP also fired companies who had worked with Cruz’s anti-Republican PAC. Iowa’s governor is doing his best to make the Iowa GOP mainstream by driving out the fringe. Mike Huckabee essentially likened the fringe to the Nazis, which brought howls of anger from various blogs. John McCain, who had planned to retire, now will likely run for a new term because fringers in Arizona censured him for “associating with liberal Democrats” and he plans to spite them. Everywhere, the establishment is fighting back and more and more conservatives are switching sides to join the establishment against the fringe.

● Routed: The Battle of Kentucky. With things going poorly for the fringe as recognized conservatives started deserting the cult and speaking against them, the fringe needed a big victory. They chose to attack a man they saw as a soft target: Mitch McConnell. McConnell is a fairly reliable conservative, though a practical one, and he and Boehner have become the fringe’s boogeymen, an odd package of spineless dupes and evil RINO geniuses who are simultaneously incompetent yet manage to dominate and frustrate 60 million conservatives. They saw McConnell as the perfect target because unseating him would be a huge show of their power and they believed he was vulnerable to a primary challenge. So they decided to support his Tea Party sponsored opponent: Matt Bevins.

In fact, “support” is an understatement. Like Hitler at Stalingrad, they are pouring everything they have into this fight. Everyone from groups like the Club for Growth to Sarah Palin have sent money and endorsements to Bevins. Every single fringe group you can think of is involved in this effort. Talk radio has repeatedly and unanimously pimped for Bevins and torn down McConnell. The idea was this: if the fringe can win this one huge victory, then it can wash away all the defeats it has suffered in primaries, special elections and with all their candidates going down in flames to the Democrats in 2012. More importantly, they can regain their ability to rule the GOP by fear. That was the plan.

But the new GOP tactics have proved extremely effective. Bevins was close until the GOP started attacking the fringe as crazy, as having no end game to their strategies, and as aiding the Democrats. And after the Cruz shutdown debacle, things started to go wrong. The latest poll has McConnell beating Bevins by 42 points.

This is an epic disaster for them. Indeed, the fringe has completely lost its influence, and they know it. What is most telling has been the change in rhetoric. After promising, a month or so ago, to unseat two dozen Republicans in the primaries, the same groups now are saying that they didn’t expect to win any of those contests, but it was enough to raise awareness of the issues. That’s loser speak. At the same time, the fringe starting whining about how unfair the GOP has been treating them. Even Cruz whined about this, stating that the GOP was “carpet-bombing” Tea Party candidates and that they should focus on the big bad Democrats. This is how people talk when they know it’s all over... and note the hypocrisy.

At this point, Matt Kibbe of FreedomWorks is still promising to unseat 28 GOP incumbents blah blah blah, including Eric Cantor and John Boehner, but no one is taking that seriously. In fact, the GOP is so confident that they’ve gone from the defensive to the offensive. First, the Chamber of Commerce came out and supported any GOP candidates who would oppose Tea Party candidates. Now former Rep. Steven LaTourette has founded a new PAC whose goal is to “beat the snot out of Tea Party Congressional candidates.”

All of this smells of a route.

● Where Things Stand. So where do things stand? The fringe is still speaking of their glorious victories to come, but from the sound of things, there will be no more Tea Party victories in primaries. A good number of Tea Party congressmen may also lose their seats. The GOP is slowly working on an agenda that will align it with the public and the actual GOP base again – not the fringe. For example, with polls consistently showing that even 60% of the GOP base wants immigration reform, its interesting to note that every single GOP candidate for President has endorsed the idea even as the fringe views this as heresy.

Meanwhile, a number of prominent conservatives started talking about an agenda – an agenda that goes against everything the fringe stands for. The article about Ramesh Ponnuru and Yuval Levin the other day is just the latest example. Even people like Rand Paul, who the fringe assumes are with them, have distanced themselves. In fact, in a very telling comment the other day, Rand Paul said this:

“I think Republicans will not win again in my lifetime for the presidency unless they become a new GOP, a new Republican Party. . . and it has to be a transformation, not a little tweaking at the edges.

So we need to become hard core “conservative,” right? Well, no. Here’s what he said next:

“Republicans haven’t gone to African-Americans or to Hispanics and said, ‘You know what? The war on drugs, Big Government, has had a racial outcome. It’s disproportionately affected the poor and the black and brown among us. There is a struggle going on within the Republican Party. It’s not new, and I’m not ashamed of it. I’m proud of the fact that there is a struggle. And I will struggle to make the Republican Party a different party, a bigger party, a more diverse party, and a party that can win national elections again.”

That is the complete opposite of what talk radio preaches about needing to become a smaller, nastier, more pure party.

The fringe is bleeding support too. Indeed, there was an interesting poll the other day, whose import was missed. The poll asked Republicans who they would support for 2016. Despite the fact that Ted Cruz was the only reel ‘merikan on the list, he scored a pathetic 12%. The other 88% were spread around various people who have all been accused of RINOcy. This means that the fringe is down from a high of around 20% of the Republican party to 12% tops. That’s a loss of 40% in six months and makes them about the size of Ron Paul’s support in the past.

Interestingly, I’m seeing evidence too that many of the fringe are giving up on the GOP and going back to whence they came in third parties.

Does this mean Cruz is finished? Hardly. The fringe only listens to talk radio and talk radio won’t tell them any of the things above because that would harm their ratings. To the contrary, if you listen to Rush or Levin or the rest, or you read HotAir or Breitbart, you will hear a steady stream of how Cruz and his army of reel ‘merikans are about to win victory after victory over Boehner and McConnell, who will soon be replaced. And then they will explain away the divergence from reality with tales or RINO traitors and magic. Because of this, Cruz, the phony-outsider, will get to continue to milk the fringe for money and he can continue his war against the GOP... but his influence is over. Things are changing a lot.

Thoughts?

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2014 Not Looking So Good

In theory, the Republicans should blow the Democrats away in 2014. The House is heavily gerrymandered and the Democrats are defending massive numbers of seats in the Senate. Obama is perhaps the least popular president ever and his signature legislation is about to force people to spend money they don’t have for a product they don’t want or face significant fines. And yet, I expect the Republicans will do rather poorly. Here’s why.

For starters, consider why 2014 should be a cakewalk for the Republicans:

(1) The House is so heavily gerrymandered that Republican control is all but inevitable. Of the 435 seats, 218 have been gerrymandered to give the Republicans a competitive boost. Only 67 seats are safe for the Democrats. The Republicans only need 218 to control the House.

(2) Twenty of the 32 Senate seats up for re-election belong to Democrats, and twelve of those are in states that were once red or swing states. Since we only need to win six to take over the Senate, we should do well, right?

(3) Obama’s approval rating hovers in the 40% range, i.e. his base. The Democrats are no better and “generic Democrat” is neck and neck with “generic Republican.”

Should be an easy election, right? Well, no. For one thing, those “red and swing states” aren’t so red or swing anymore. Most of these swing states, like Virginia and Colorado, haven’t voted red in several election cycles. In the red states, the Republicans are generally facing well-like Democratic incumbents. And despite the heavy gerrymandering, the Republicans barely control the House by the skin of their teeth.

Then there's the turnout issue.

Consider this. Gallup did a poll and asked people what issues are most important to them. Here’s what they found:

● 42% Economy/jobs
● 19% Healthcare
● 8% Federal deficit
● 7% Ethics/moral-religious-family decline
● 6% Corruption/abuse of power
● 6% Immigration
● 5% Education

Now ask yourself what the Republicans are pushing. The Tea Party worries about the federal deficit. The Libertarians worry about corruption/abuse of power. The Religious Right worries about morality. They talk about nothing else, except their desire to NOT fix healthcare, to NOT fix immigration and to NOT fix education. Basically, the things the right has adopted as a platform were chosen as top concerns by only 21% of the public. At the same time, they are trying to stop solutions in issues which 30% of the public identify as their top concerns. And they have no platform at all to deal with the issue that 42% of the public wants fixed. In other words, they are flirting with 21% of the public, ignoring 42% and turning off 30%.

That means they aren't going to win any converts. It also means that Boehner was flat out wrong when he said this weekend, "We shouldn't be judged on how many laws we pass, we should be judged on how many laws we repeal." That doesn't wash with the public.

Hence, base turnout is key. But that brings us to this problem: they have misidentified the base.

For years now, the Republican leadership in the House has pandered to the cranks. On issue after issue, they have paid attention only to the people screaming at them. Hence, their agenda has become "DON'T DO ANYTHING TO GIVE OBAMA A LEGACY!", "DON'T FIX HEALTHCARE!", "DON'T FIX IMMIGRATION!", "DON'T PASS A BUDGET DEAL!!", "KILL UNEMPLOYMENT!!", "KILL FOOD STAMPS!" and "SHUT THE GOVERNMENT DOWN FOR NO REASON WHATSOEVER!!" Apart from 150 votes on abortion and almost 40 symbolic votes to repeal Obamacare, that's been the Republican Party since 2010. But average Republican voters don't support this crap. In poll after poll, these positions get support only in the 10-15% range among the people telling the pollsters they are Republicans. And the thing is, these people aren't even Republicans and they will NEVER support the Republicans.

Consider a little rumor started by PJ media last week, because it's instructive. They published an article based on an anonymous source who supposedly works for the RNC. This source claimed that the RNC is using DONOR MONEY to engage in research in conjunction with ERIC HOLDER to help HOLDER ENSLAVE TEXAS AND OTHER SOUTHERN STATES!!!! Why would they do this? Because they're traitorous RINOS and these RINOpublicans think recreating the presumption of guilt in the Voting Rights Act will help get Republicans elected. Naturally, the whole thing is still SECRET because they know they are BETRAYING the party, so not even people at the RNC know about it... only a select group of SECRET RINOS knows.

Only an idiot would believe this. There are no Republicans who think the VRA helped get Republicans elected. To the contrary, they are the ones who pushed to kill the law. The RNC can’t use donor money secretly. Holder would never work with the RNC because he wouldn't trust them and because he could have Justice stooges do the same research better. None of this makes any sense. Nevertheless, within an hour, the article had 1400 comments and to a one they assumed the RINOpublicans were guilty. Most of them declared they were done voting for the RINOpublicans. Some claimed they would renounce their membership in the party the following day and most called on Boehner and the other SECRET RINOS to be fired. By GOD WE NEED A SECOND AMERICAN REVOLUTION!!

These are the people Boehner and the House are pandering too under the theory that the most vocal are most likely to turn out to vote. But only a fool would think they will ever support the Republicans. These people traffic in hate and conspiracy theory against the Republicans. They presume guilt on the part of the Republicans even after innocence is proven. Indeed, the pattern repeats itself all the time: the Democrats raise an issue and these people go into attack mode... targeting the Republicans. 500 comments appear at Brietbart or Daily Caller accusing the Republicans of secretly wanting the Democrats to get their way. Then the Republicans announce they will oppose it, as they do with everything now. Are these retards happy? No, they put out another 500 comments about how it’s only a matter of time before Boehner caves in. Then come the rumors of secret deals Boehner has made TO SELL US OUT!!! This bring another 500 comments about how the RINOpublicans can’t be trusted and we need to take back the party!!!! Then the issue dies because the Republicans block it. Now come the apologies, right? Hardly. Now come 500 comments about how we need to be "vigilant" because WE KNOW the RINOpublicans are planning to sell us out yet! Rinse and repeat... every... single... week for three years now. They've been wrong 100% of the time and yet they don't stop. Not only that, they use their own prior allegations as proof to support their next claims.

These people are not sane. Nor are they your friends, Mr. Boehner. They are lunatics who hate you, and placating them only encourages them to hate you more.

In fact, we used to get people like that here when we first started. They would show up claiming to be "lifelong Republicans" who had become disillusioned with the Republicans, against whom they would spew a ton of hate. Only, it didn't take long before they slipped and admitted they were never Republicans and they never voted Republican in their lives except maybe one time. These are the people now screaming about Boehner "betraying" them. These are the people he is pandering too. These are people who will never vote Republican. And by pandering to these people and their agenda of "BURN IT ALL DOWN!", Boehner is losing his base to try to win people who can't be won. As a result, there won't be a turnout advantage for the Republicans in 2014. The base has no reason to turn out because the Republicans seem to have fallen in love with a new base. The cranks won't turn out because they never intended to. The end result will be a nail-biter with the lowest turnout in US history.

Right now, I would predict that the Republicans will pick up one seat in the Senate, not the six they need. And they will lose a handful in the House and possibly control over the chamber... unless they wake up to reality. Listen to the people trying to create an agenda... Rubio, Paul Rand, John McCain, Bobby Jindal, Paul Ryan, and stop listening to the people trying to stop everything.

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Obamacare Update No. 437

It’s time for another Obamacare update. This thing truly is a gift to bloggers. Today’s theme in the slow motion train wreck of Obamacare is “That’s not fair!”

● The First 49,000: When Obama pimped his plan to destroy our healthcare system, he promised over and over: “If you like your healthcare, you can keep it.” That was a lie, as people are now learning. Aetna announced Saturday that they will stop selling individual insurance in California because of the new regulations imposed under Obamacare (they will still sell business policies). They will cancel around 49,000 policies. No comment from California.

● That’s Not Fair!! I: It turns out that Obamacare has a problem. It’s not affordable for low income people. To make the insurance “affordable,” the amount an employer can pass on to employees is capped at 9.5% of their income. Well, it turns out that this is way too high for most people. Take the case of a restaurant worker who makes $21,000 a year. That 9.5% works out to $1,995 or $166.25 per month – and that’s before the $3,000+ deductible they will need to pay before the insurance kicks in. For someone who most likely lives paycheck to paycheck, that is not something they can afford. Indeed, we are suddenly awash in articles pointing out all the people in the restaurant, retail, hotel and service industries who can’t afford the insurance. The service employee unions are furious.

Even worse, they are now discovering that employers can get around Obamacare by offering expensive plans that require the full 9.5%. This keeps them from being fined because they actually comply with the law by offering the insurance, but they don’t end up paying for it because none of the employees will sign up. (As an aside, no one has recognized this yet, but this will destroy the Obamacare funding mechanism.) Even more hilariously, those employees then cannot get subsidies because their jobs technically offer plans. Ha ha. Nice work donks! Way to punish your supporters.

● That’s Not Fair!! II: Reuters just discovered something dastardly which no one could have seen coming... except Obamacare critics. Employers are finding ways to avoid providing insurance:

● A survey of 52 Wal-Mart stores found that 27 were only hiring temps, 5 weren’t hiring, and 20 were hiring a combination. And it turns out there is a company directive to hire as many people as possible as temps.... because they don’t qualify for insurance. They are also planning to cut back hours on others so they don’t qualify. Liberals are shocked and called this “creepy” (noting specifically that Wal-Mart lobbied for this, so they don’t understand why Wal-Mart would do this), and they claim it will backfire in some non-specific way. This is going on all across the country right now.

● Obamacare requires that insurers cover people’s kids until they turn 26... but it says nothing about spouses. The result is that policies are springing up everywhere that exclude the employee’s spouse – an alternate form allows the spouse on the policy, but only if they are primarily covered by insurance at their own workplace. The idea is to get employees to shift onto their spouse’s policy so the employer doesn’t need to cover them.

● Employers are instituting requirements in policies that allow the employer to force the employee to seek a second opinion before they can do anything expensive. There are actually firms that specialize in “finding savings” by talking employees into less expensive options. Sounds like the mob: “Be a real shame if something happened to your colon...”

● That’s Not Fair!! II: “This is simply not fair,” whined Democrat John Larson (Conn). What was he talking about? Chuck Grassley slipped a provision into Obamacare which requires Congressional staffers to suffer with the rest of us by seeking insurance through an exchange rather than getting the gold-plated government plan they get now. Apparently, this has deeply upset the poor dears and they are headed for the exists. This has led to fears of a “brain drain” on Capitol Hill... which isn’t possible as no one on Capitol Hill has a functioning brain. Trust me, zombies would never attack Congress.

Anyway, the Democrats are demanding a fix. After all, they shouldn’t be forced to endure the things they force upon us! That “is simply not fair!” The initial reports were that Boehner was onboard with fixing this as there is bipartisan upsettedness over this. But Boehner shot that one down. Said his spokesmonkey:

“The speaker would like to see resolution of this problem, along with the other nightmares created by Washington Democrats’ health law, which is why he supports full repeal. In the meantime, it is Democrats’ problem to solve. He will not sneak any language into bills to solve it for them — and the Democratic leadership knows that.”

Excellent Mr. Boehner! In light of this, Harry Reid has grumbled that there will be no legislative fix... “And cancel Christmas!” He is, however, hoping that OPM will rule that the Feds can contribute to these plans on behalf of those staffers – something which isn’t clear yet.

This has been a fascinating discussion to watch because the Democrats are claiming how this is actually anti-reform to force the staffers onto Obamacare because the government program they were in is the better model of reform. Huh? Then why didn’t you make that law instead of Obamacare, you turds? In any event, this truly shows the elitist mentality and why no one would shed any tears if zombies did eat the Congress.

● Setting The Goal High: Most people typically set their goals higher than they can achieve to motivate themselves. Not Obamacare. Gary Cohen, who is involved in implementing the federal exchanges, says “As we move closer to October, my hopes are the range of things that could go wrong gets narrower and narrower.” In other words, he’s expecting problems and hoping they can be fixed as they go. How bad could these problems be? Fellow implementeer Henry Chao, put it this way: “Let’s just make sure it’s not a third-world experience.” Aim high, el Hefe.

● Rate Shock Continues: Finally, rate shock continues. In a private briefing of insurers, the big players conceded that rates are going to shock people. Said Aetna’s CEO:

“In some markets, insurance premiums could increase as high as 100 percent. And we’ve done all that math. We’ve shared it with all the regulators. We’ve shared it with all the people in Washington that need to see it. And I think it’s a big concern.”

UnitedHealth, WellPoint, Humana and Cigna have all said the same thing. They blame (1) the “community rating” which jacks up the costs on the young to pay for the old, (2) forcing higher “minimum actuarial values,” (3) forcing insurers to take anyone who applies, (4) HHS forcing them to include new benefits people wouldn’t normally pay for, and (5) a tax on premium insurance.

In an article this week, Forbes outlined these things and explained how the Republicans could win votes by fixing some of these problems. To put this kindly, that is F**KING WRONG!!! NO!! DO NOT TRY TO FIX THESE THINGS!!!

This is the problem with the Republicans historically. The Democrats pass some disaster of a bill and act all smug about it. The Republicans try to minimize the negative effects of the bill. In the process, they make it tolerable because they redirect the harm it does so that most people don’t get hurt. That takes away the pain. No pain, no learning. No learning, no desire to repeal. Meanwhile, the Democrats smear them for trying to undo the “noble thing” the Democrats passed even as they are thankful the Republicans are saving their butts. This needs to stop. The Democrats created a bill that will mock poor people by offering them insurance they cannot afford and then fining them for not taking it, that will allow big business like Wal-Mart to dump their healthcare, that will turn everyone into part-timers, that will force millions of people off the insurance they currently like, that will eat into the budgets of hundreds of millions of people, and which will eventually bankrupt states and insurers.

LET IT HAPPEN.

Do NOT let the Democrats off the hook. Make them face the wrath of the public for what they have done. Do not alleviate that wrath by sparing the public from the full brunt of the Democrat’s stupidity.

Fortunately, Boehner’s words give me hope that the Republicans are on to this: ”It is Democrats’ problem to solve.” Exactly.

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Boehner et al Need To Resign

The Republican leadership needs to resign. They have demonstrated sheer incompetence in the face of the fiscal cliff and other matters and the indictment against them is irrefutable.

Item No. 1: The fiscal cliff was a political ploy stupidly invented by the Republicans. . . the same ones currently running the party. When they passed the Bush tax cuts, they agreed to make them temporary because they assumed it would make them look good (and the Democrats bad) if they got to vote for these twice and the Democrats voted against them twice. They never thought that the Democrats might find a way to spin this to their own advantage. This was political incompetence. Anyone who assumes the other side will never be able to spin something to their advantage is an idiot and should not be given responsibility for strategy.

Item No. 2: The Democrats found a politically powerful tool to flip the Bush tax cuts to their advantage – they carved them up into two parts, rich and middle class, and they agreed to support the middle class parts while claiming the Republicans only wanted the rich parts. Rather than recognize the danger and find a counter-strategy, the Republicans embraced the idea of protecting the rich. This was political incompetence.

Item No. 3: This was the most softball election ever for the Republicans and they lost because, among other things, they made themselves into the party of the rich – you can whine all you want about the MSM, but the fact is that conservatives and Republicans have been screaming about protecting “the rich.” Hence, change is needed, and that change is to either expose Obama’s policies or change their image. . . or both.

Exposing Obama entails putting his policies into place and letting them hurt people. We’ve discussed this before and this was the best choice. The Republicans, however, chose not to do this. The alternative strategy was to reboot the party and, if they could find a principle that would actually win over the public, to stand on that principle in the fiscal cliff debate. The Republicans, however, chose not to do that either. What they chose, instead, was to double down on the same policies that cost them six of the last seven elections including the most recent debacle and the fall on their swords to protect the rich from a 3% tax hike. That was beyond political incompetence.

Item No. 4: Having chosen the completely wrong strategy, they then compounded their mistakes with an incompetent negotiation strategy. There was only one goal of the fiscal cliff talks – make sure the other guy got the blame. Obama did this by blaming Republican policies for getting us to the fiscal cliff. The Republicans failed to counter this. He then accused them of being obstructionist. The Republicans failed to counter this. He then added that they were being obstructionist to protect the rich from a tiny tax increase. The Republicans failed to counter this.... actually, that’s not entirely accurate, not only did they not counter this claim, they embraced it: “That’s right, we’re not going to let Obama raises taxes on the rich, even if that means taxes will go up on the rest of you suckers.” That was political incompetence.

Then it got worse.

Item No. 5: The Republicans next demanded that Obama impose serious cuts in entitlements before they agreed to let him tax the rich. In other words, they wanted old people and poor people to be hurt in exchange for letting Obama tax the rich an additional 3%. Do you see the problem with this? They handed Obama an UNBELIEVABLE victory here. He looks like a great guy because he only wants to tax the rich and he only wants to tax them a tiny bit... few people consider a 3% hike to be excessive. He is also the defender of the middle class and the poor, because he’s trying to stop those mean Republicans from raising taxes on them. He is also the defender of the old and the helpless, despite the fact he wants to rape Medicare for $750 million, because he alone is stopping the Republicans from cutting those programs.

F*ck. This was far beyond incompetence.

And it got worse.

Item No. 6: See, Obama did the natural thing when your opponent is an idiot. . . he let the Republicans blow themselves apart. He said, “you give me a proposal.” And the Republicans failed to spot the obvious trap and throw this right back at him. Instead, they started floating ideas. Obama cynically slammed them for each. This shifted the nature of the negotiations. Instead of this being Obama’s mess to fix, it became the Republicans’ mess to fix because they made themselves responsible for coming up with a solution. And in so doing, they now own everything. They own the fiscal cliff. They own the failure of the cliff so far. They will own the spending cuts and the tax hikes that will come out of it. Obama and the Democrats will point to the Republicans as the people who proposed those. They will also own the bad economy that follows because it will be their proposal which will be linked to the bad economic times to follow. (Good economic times will be despite the fiscal cliff, so don’t expect credit if things go right... you don’t get credit for people dodging your bullet.)

The word “debacle” is insufficient, but we’ll use it.

Item No. 7: At this point in the debacle, Boehner finally hit upon a decent idea (though at the wrong time) of proposing the same millionaire tax Pelosi had proposed in the past. On the one hand, this was a smart move because it shows the Republicans aren’t solely concerned with trying to save the ultra rich. BUT the timing is atrocious. Had this proposal been made day one, then it would have been brilliant. Now it’s just one more way for the Republicans to own the crisis.

What’s more, rather than grasp what Boehner was doing, conservatives went insane: “You traitor! You must protect millionaires from a three percent tax hikes! That is our only principle!” Then the Republicans voted down Plan B because they just can’t stand to see a tiny tax hike on millionaires. That is political suicide.

Now, it’s not Boehner’s fault that conservatives are lost. BUT what was his fault was how he handled this. He should have taken this moment to reboot the party. He should have taken this moment to tell the public that the Republicans are no longer beholden to this increasingly fringy conservative sect. He should have brought in people like Christie and Jed Bush and Bobby Jindal to stand beside him and then used Rush Limbaugh as a strawman contrast to redefine the party in a way that is acceptable to the public: “we are not the party of Rush Limbaugh, we care about all Americans.” Dirty, yes? Effective? Hell yes. It’s called “triangulation” and Clinton completely changed the image of the Democratic party doing it - he made them appear moderate in image even as they’ve drifted further and further left.

This was Boehner’s chance to correct all of his prior mistakes and to launch the party into the rhetorical middle-class center for a clean slate fresh start. But he didn’t. He just announced he didn’t have the votes to tax millionaires and he sent everybody home.

Boehner and the rest of the leadership have demonstrated more than a decade of total incompetence – 100% across the board. It is time for them to leave and to be replaced by people who actually understand politics.

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Hypocrites and Fools

I really did not want to talk about this Connecticut school shooting. We’re about to go into Christmas mode, and it strikes me as disrespectful and depressing to discuss this. BUT the left is in full exploitation mode and it’s pissing me off. So I’m going to make a few points myself.

(1) The left is despicable. This guy hadn’t even stopped shooting and they were gleefully rushing to microphones to politicize this event. Show me a single leftist who didn’t start screaming about gun control. And that’s not all. These same people who claim to care about the victims made death threats to NRA members. Vile hypocrites. Obama’s press secretary tried to connect this to tax hikes. Teachers unions have tried to turn this into demands for more money. And liberals everywhere are masturbating thinking about Obama’s meaningless speech: “Oh, it was like the Gettysburg address... for dummies.” Some of them are even trying to hide their own shame by claiming that the people politicizing this issue are the people who refuse to politicize it. All of you on the left are despicable.

(2) Liberals are to blame for this killer. Yes, I said it.

Liberals dismantled the mental health system in the 1960s. Rather than fixing it, they just turned people loose, and they left a legal system that is incapable of dealing with the mentally ill.

Liberals run Hollywood. Hollywood exploits gun violence for profit and makes it cool to solve your disputes with violence.

Liberals run the media, the same media which glorifies these killers and gives them exactly what they crave – fame. Even now, these same journalists who wring their hands about guns continue to try to outdo themselves to glorify this guy. They want to report on everything that made him tick. They want pictures of his life, to explain his motives, to understand his needs and desires. They want to get rich and famous making him important.

Liberals trade in hate. THEY have built a culture based on pitting one group against another, THEY traffic in jealousy, spite as policy, race-baiting and fear as a substitute for loyalty. THEY whined about Sarah Palin using a cross-hairs image, yet THEY talk about “enslavement” and “a war on ___” and “hostage taking” and every other violence rhetorical image you can imagine. Liberals are to blame for the hateful culture we have right now. And let me add that anecdotally, Liberals make up the majority of internet trolls. THEY are the ones who post hateful rhetoric, who make death threats on twitter, who call for the imprisonment and execution of the people they don’t like... like the Rich or Republicans or Jews.

(3) Gun Control Is Stupid and It’s An Evasion. I understand that liberals are stupid. They don’t grasp logic. But even they should understand that gun control is not an answer. This killer was in violation of dozens of laws, and not one of those laws stopped him. Adding more laws won’t help. And even if they could somehow ban guns outright, that wouldn’t have stopped him either. Timothy McVeigh didn’t use a gun, nor did the 9/11 terrorists. Nor did Andrew Kehoe, who blew up killed 45 people, including 38 children, and wounded 58 more in 1927. All those mass murderers of grade school kids in China used knives. Offering gun control as a solution is as idiotic as Weight Watchers telling dieters to ban forks from their house. It’s stupid. It won’t work, and they know that.

In this case, all the whining about gun control is an evasion. This is liberals trying to evade responsibility for the fact they are the cause of this. It is their behavior, as outlined above, which has created the angry, hateful culture which spurs these guys on.

So don’t feed me this crap about “it’s time to act.” If it was time to act, then you liberals would stop being such hateful creatures. You would stop trying to steal that which does not belong to you and you would stop trying to demonize those who disagree with you. Seriously, I hope Santa brings you all a big old bag of go f*ck yourself.

- - - - - -

In other news, I am still beating my head against the wall on the fiscal cliff stuff. Boehner proposed a millionaire tax, the same tax hike that Pelosi proposed early. This was a great move, and yet, the right is going insane. Drudge is stupidly playing up the idea that Boehner has morphed into Pelosi and talk radio is whining about Boehner being a sell out.

Lost in all of this idiocy is something key. Why are the Democrats voting against the millionaire tax? Talk radio land isn’t asking that.

According to Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer, the only reason Pelosi ever proposed a millionaire tax in the past was “as a political ploy” because she knew the Republicans would vote it down and then they would look like they support the rich. Naturally, that worked. And talk radio backed that to the hilt at the time.

Now talk radio is horrified that Boehner is proposing it and they are slamming him as a sell out. Yet, none of them have asked why Pelosi won’t agree to this now? Hoyer’s excuse is that it wouldn’t bring in enough revenue, but that argument makes no sense in two ways. First, if it doesn’t bring in enough revenue, then doesn’t that mean Obama lied about only taxing the rich? Funny how talk radio missed that point.

Secondly, even if it doesn’t bring in enough revenue, who don’t the Democrats who claim to hate the rich agree to it and then seek other tax hikes to get the rest? Could it be that they don’t really hate the rich after all and this is just an act. . . as I’ve been saving since forever? Could it be they know they can’t get other taxes later once people realize that someone other than millionaires will pay it?

I am no fan of Boehner, but he finally did the right thing and it exposed something massively important. Yet, conservatives have missed this point because they are too busy whining about the poor millionaires whose taxes might go up and attacking the guy who handed them a golden nugget. Wake up idiots. Maybe Santa will bring our talk radio hosts a clue?

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Super Committee Not So Super

The debt ceiling agreement requires the formation of a “super committee” of twelve Senators and Congressmen, who will be charged with finding $1.2 trillion in additional deficit reduction. To approve anything, the committee needs 7 out of 12 votes. If it fails, or if Congress does not approve its recommendations, automatic cuts will kick in to make up the difference between what the committee approves and $1.2 trillion. So, how is the committee stacking up? It’s not horrible.



The Good

● Tax Pledge: Every Republican member has signed Grover Norquist’s pledge not to raise taxes.



● Leftist Anger: Leftist bloggers like the Daily Kos are furious at Harry Reid’s picks, which they consider unwilling to defend entitlements.



● Defense Sec. Leon Panetta: Democrat Leon Panetta just undermined the Democratic plan by saying that the super committee should not cut anything else from the defense budget. This will make it hard for Democrats to sell further defense cuts.



● Pat Toomey (R) (McConnell appointee): Toomey is the ultimate Tea Party guy. He’s the former head of the conservative Club for Growth and a Tea Party favorite. In fact, he tried to unseat Arlen Specter before there even was a Tea Party. He’s a solid conservative. Interestingly, he says he would be willing to eliminate deductions and subsidies in exchange for lower income tax rates, but will oppose any sort of “big tax increase.” That puts tax reform on the table.



● Jeb Hensarling (R) (Boehner appointee): Hensarling is a former chair of the conservative Republican Study Committee. He is also a member of the Budget Committee and works closely with Paul Ryan, who asked not to be appointed to this commission. His views are fairly similar to the Tea Party Republicans.



● Fred Upton (R) (Boehner appointee): You might recall Upton from the lightbulb debate. At the time, we weren’t sure if he would be willing to cast off his moderate environmentalism and do a good job of shifting the Energy and Commerce Committee to the right. He has. And he should be a good player here. He seems interested in ending energy subsidies, particularly for wind and solar: “Since I am sure that the industry will never give up its free money voluntarily, now is the time for us to slash it on our terms.” This has freaked out environmentalists.



● John Kyl (R) (McConnell appointee): Kyle is retiring at the end of the year, and wants to be Vice President. He has been a reliable conservative during his time in the Senate. He has a long record of pushing tax cuts and he walked out of the Biden talks because he felt the Democrats only wanted “job-killing tax hikes and new spending.” He also has suggested cutting deductions in exchange for lower rates.

The Bad

● Dave Camp (R) (Boehner appointee): Camp is the Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. I know nothing about him (which is a bad thing) except that he is a member of both the moderate Republican Main Street Partnership and the conservative Republican Study Committee. Being a member of the RSC is a good thing and he describes himself as a conservative on fiscal policy, but he has favored extending unemployment benefits and the auto bailout.



● Rob Portman (R) (McConnell appointee): Portman is a former Bush budget director, which is not a good thing. He’s a freshman Senator from Ohio and I know little about him, except that he’s considered the weak link on the Republican side. He too has signaled a willingness to reduce tax breaks, but says that those cuts should be used to lower rates.

The Ugly

● Max Baucus (D) (Reid appointee): Finance Committee Chairman Baucus is a wild card. He has shown an ability to act in a bipartisan manner when he worked with Chuck Grassley on a jobs bill which the Democratic left flank hated because it included tax cuts. But he also came up with Obamacare. He is likely to fight to protect farm subsidies and Obamacare. Interestingly, former Republican Senate Alan Simpson, who chaired Obama’s deficit reduction committee of which Baucus was a member, call him an awful choice. He described Baucus as being lazy, unhelpful and out of touch.



● John Kerry (D) (Reid appointee): Kerry is a troubling pick. First, he lobbied to get on the committee because he’s looking for a legacy. That’s always a bad sign. Secondly, he has proved to be a standard liberal ass. Third, he just accused the Tea Party of being the cause of the downgrade and he made the Orwellian suggestion that the media should ignore the Tea Party. That said, he was one of the first to attack Obama’s Afghanistan policy, claiming that we should not stick with a policy just because it exists. And Alan Simpson strangely suggests that: “Kerry will do good work, he really will. I know him well.” If he wants a genuine legacy, then he will need to move right, but we'll see.

The Ugliest

● Patty Murray (D) (Reid appointee): Patty Murray is the most cynical choice. She is the chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. This means that her job is to protect the 22 Democratic senators who are up for re-election in 2012. Their current campaign strategy is to scare old people by slandering the GOP by claiming Republicans are trying to destroy Medicare. Of this pick, one Republican official said: “It is shocking that Harry Reid appointed his chief fundraiser to a committee that will be the central focus of every lobbyist in town.”



● Pelosi: Pelosi has yet to appoint her three clowns, but you can pretty much guess they will be total losers.

At this point, Baucus and Kerry are where we will need to look to get a good deal. At the same time, we will need to watch Portman. My guess is that we end up with a little tax reform, the ending of some deductions and subsidies, a reduction in rates, a trimming of entitlement numbers without an actual plan to cause the cuts, and some minor discretionary cuts.



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What's the Debt Dealio?

No doubt, some of you will be surprised to hear that Obama spoke to the nation last night. . . at least the part of the nation that still listens to him. No doubt, the MSM is full of articles (all written a couple days ago) that extol the brilliance of Obama’s speech and proclaim that the speech made the public cry tears of joy. . . it was joy, right? Also no doubt, many of you are totally confused about what is going with the debt ceiling negotiations. Here’s where we stand.

1. Why Obama Spoke: Obama went on television because he is losing the public relations war, despite media claims and fake polls to the contrary. Rasmussen reports that the public trusts Republicans over Democrats 45% to 35% on economic issues. Indeed, Republicans win 9 of 10 top issues -- education being the one Democratic “stronghold” (42%-38%). So Obama had no choice but to try to win the public over.

2. Obama’s Speech: Obama’s main line of attack was (1) failure to raise the debt ceiling until after the 2012 election will destroy our economy, (2) the Republicans are trying to cause a default because they are evil, and (3) why can’t we all just get along on my terms? His most effective line was: “If that happens, and we default, we would not have enough money to pay all of our bills -- bills that include monthly Social Security checks, veterans’ benefits and the government contracts we’ve signed with thousands of businesses.”

3. Boehner’s Response: Boehner’s main line of attack was (1) I gave it my all, but Obama wanted a blank check and has never negotiated fairly, and (2) he wants tax hikes that will destroy jobs. His best line was: “The president would not take yes for an answer. Even when we thought we might be close on an agreement, the president’s demands changed.”

4. The Reid/Obama “Plan”: Let’s start with the basics. First, Obama has finally given up on getting tax hikes.

Secondly, this proposal is a crock:

● They are calling it a $2.7 trillion debt “reduction,” but that’s a total lie. First, $1 trillion of that is from “winding down the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.” This is essentially an accounting trick, like claiming you will buy a million dollar house next week and then saying you cut your budget by a million dollars by promising not to buy it after all. Even Joe Lieberman has said “I don’t think it’s a real cut. It’s like a bookkeeping cut.”

● The proposal then includes $400 billion in “interest savings,” which appear to be more accounting gimmicks. These are like the magic “everyone will be healthier” savings in ObamaCare.

● Next, it includes $100 billion which have already been negotiated. Those are the only legitimate cuts.

● Finally, the last $1.2 trillion come from a promise that a committee of 12 politicians will agree to find more cuts in the future. That and $18 gets you a Double Sugarmoccacrappe at Starbucks.

So what we have is $100 billion in cuts over ten years (i.e. $10 billion a year.... 0.0003% of the budget), some false accounting and a promise to find more cuts. In exchange for this, Obama gets an immediate $2.4 trillion hike in the debt ceiling.

5. The Latest House Plan: Boehner’s latest plan calls for a two-stage approach. Stage one involves $1.2 trillion in cuts over 10 years combined with an immediate debt ceiling hike of $900 billion. This would be followed by larger cuts to be agreed upon later. The Democrats object to this plan because it would likely result in the need for an additional debt ceiling hike before the next election.

6. Boehner’s Problem: There are 178 House Republicans who seem to be taking the position that they won’t vote for anything, and apparently oppose the new House plan. This is actually fairly stupid. The point where everyone is desperate to get a deal is the time to lay out your demands and get some good cuts. By simply refusing to vote for any plan, these Republicans make themselves irrelevant and will eventually force Boehner to seek Democratic support.

7. Reid’s Problem: Believe it or not, Reid has lost the left because of potential cuts to entitlements and a failure to tax the rich. Thus, he will need a lot of Republican support. . . support he doesn’t have. His ace in the hole is the 178 House Republicans who will force Boehner and McConnell to deal to find Democratic support. That will give him a chance to buy back his left flank.

8. Something You Should Know: Believe it or not, raising the debt ceiling has nothing to do with new spending. We need to raise the debt ceiling to cover amounts we already spent. Getting the public to see this as “new spending” has been a Republican PR triumph.

9. Who Loves You Baby?: A couple weeks ago, Boehner said that negotiating with Obama “was like trying to nail Jell-O to the wall.” According to certain leftist reporters, Democrats privately say “much worse” about Obama off the record (and no, the reporters haven't shared what has been said).

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Not All "Tax Hikes" Are Bad

“What Boehner’s trying to accomplish will literally change the fiscal trajectory of the country.”

-- Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.)

Until he changed his mind yesterday, Speaker John Boehner was headed for trouble with the talk radio set: "He's a socialist! He wants to raise taxes by $1 trillion!!! He’s betraying us!" Unfortunately, that reaction is both wrong and highly destructive to conservatism. Let’s discuss.

Here’s what happened. With the government bumping up against the debt ceiling, Obama and the Republicans are busy negotiating a debt reduction deal. On the table were two possible deals. One deal involves $2 trillion in cuts over the next ten years. The other deal involves $4 trillion in cuts, including structural changes to Medicare and Social Security. But the $4 trillion deal would have include $1 trillion in tax hikes. Specifically, this would have involved an across-the-board reduction in tax rates, including corporate tax rates, offset by the elimination of tax “loopholes,” i.e. deductions.

Until last night, Boehner was working on the $4 trillion deal and most conservatives in Congress were waiting patiently to see what was on the table before commenting. But in the idiotsphere, talk radio went on the attack without having a clue what they were talking about. They heard that this would involve “tax hikes” because the elimination of deductions will result in an increase in taxes. Increased taxes are bad. Hence: “Boehner is a socialist! Get your pitchforks!” But this is stupid. . . there is no kinder way to put this.

For decades, most people on the right have advocated reform of the tax code -- usually a flattening of rates and a simplification of the code. Remember all the talk about doing your taxes “on a post card”? Even the current Presidential candidates (except Santorum) are advocating some form of “tax reform” to “simplify the tax code.” But you can’t simplify the tax code without eliminating parts of it. And if you eliminate parts of it, then you are by definition raising taxes on the people who can no longer use the deductions you eliminate. Thus, if we accept the argument of these self-proclaimed conservative purists on the radio, then basically all tax reform will result in tax increases and should be opposed. Who knew so many talk radio guys thought the IRS code was inviolate?

We should reject this stupidity and instead look at what is cut to decide whether a particular reform is a good one. Indeed, some deductions should be cut. For example, we should eliminate any deduction that is not a generalized deduction that any taxpayer can claim. In other words, if a deduction is industry specific (or company specific), then we shouldn’t be too troubled by this “tax hike.” These are deductions that were put into the code by well-connected lobbyists to benefit individual industries or companies and they are a distortion of the free market and an abuse of power. Eliminating them is a good thing and should not be attacked as a tax hike. Examples of this include ethanol-related deductions (though Norquist disagrees), or deductions which make it cheaper to shift jobs overseas, which let companies use pre-tax money to lobby, or which allow credit card companies to deduct faked bad debts from their profits.

A classic example of such deductions are the deductions put into the code by Charlie Rangel, who gave $2.8 billion in tax breaks to British alcohol giant Diageo and who created a deduction that only four companies in the USA can qualify for. . . all contributors naturally. (see Rangel, No. 9).

We also shouldn’t be troubled by the elimination of deductions that exist for social engineering purposes, such as the deduction for the purchase of electric cars or going solar. Indeed, the government should not be using the tax code to tell us how to live and should not be subsidizing products which the free market has rejected. Again, we should not be attacking the elimination of these deductions as “tax hikes.”

The problem here, as increasingly is becoming the case, is that people who don’t know what they are talking about react to the characterization of these reforms as “tax hikes” and throw a hissyfit. If we are to remake the government along conservative lines, we’re going to have to shut these idiots up or get people to stop listening. When conservatives like Rush Limbaugh can with a straight face claim that wiping out Charlie Rangel’s friends’ dirty tax break is an intolerable “tax hike,” conservatism has lost its way and all Rush is doing is doing the bidding of the Democrats and K-Street by leaving in place a corrupt and complex tax code that is packed with handouts for the well-connected.

This is very frustrating.

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Analyzing The Shutdown Deal

Around midnight on Friday, the House and Senate approved a six-day “bridge” bill to avert a shutdown as they draft and approve an agreed-upon bipartisan bill to fund the government for six months, through the end of the fiscal year. The big questions now are who won, who lost, and what does it all mean?

Here are the terms of the deal:

1. The deal cuts $38.5 billion from the remaining six months of the 2011 budget. This joins $40 billion already cut.

2. The deal does not block funding for ObamaCare, BUT it does require the Senate to vote separately on blocking funding. It also requires (1) studies to examine the full impact of the law’s mandates, including the effect on the cost of premiums, (2) an audit of all waivers given to businesses and unions, and (3) a report on all contractors who have been hired to implement the law and the cost of those contracts to taxpayers.

3. The deal does not block funding for Planned Parenthood, BUT it does require the Senate to vote on this issue separately. It also bars the use of federal money for abortions in Washington, D.C.

4. The deal does not block funding for the EPA, NPR, or PBS.

5. The bill requires the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to undergo yearly audits from the private sector and the GAO.

6. The deal prevents Obama from closing Guantanamo Bay.

7. The deal reinstates the school voucher program in Washington, D.C., which Obama cut when he came to power.

1. The Cuts. Some on the right are upset about the level of cuts. Some are not. Michelle Bachmann says these cuts did not dig deeply enough. Tea Party Nation head Judson Phillips said he will recruit a primary challenger to run against Boehner for “selling us out.” But Paul Ryan dismissed these claims, saying it was more important to focus on the 2012 budget: “this is the first bite of the apple. . . we want to get talking about trillions in savings.” John Thune echoed this, saying “this is just the opening act.” Newt Gingrich also called this “a good start.”

On the left, many are irate. Harry Reid himself called $32 billion in cuts “extreme” and “draconian” before he agreed to $38.5 billion. Chuck Schumer continues to echo those sentiments. Forty-four House “progressive” Democrats announced they will vote against the measure. A top Democratic strategist also complained that this deal destroyed the party’s credibility on the spending cut issue because its assumptions have shifted the debate from "whether to cut" to "how much to cut."

So who’s right? The Republicans are clear winners in this.

For starters, the numbers are bigger than the critics admit. The Tea Party candidates ran on the promise to get $100 billion in cuts out of this budget. Obama folded right away on $40 billion in spending increases he had originally sought in the 2011 budget. This deal adds another $38.5 billion on top of that, for a total reduction of $78.5 billion. That’s short of the $100 billion promised but is quite significant given that the Republicans only control one chamber.

Further, these cuts are in baseline discretionary numbers, which means they form the basis for future spending. That translates into hundreds of billions of dollars in automatic future cuts even if nothing else happens budget-wise because of the lower baselines.

Also, while many are upset that Boehner didn’t hold out for the full $100 billion, people need to realize that negotiations don’t work that way. The only way for Boehner to get 100% would be if the Democrats were desperate to avoid a shutdown. They weren't. And since the Democrats thought a shutdown would work in their favor, and the public was split on who to blame, this would have been a highly risky and unpredictable move. Taking an unpredictable move over $21.5 billion in cuts (just 0.7% of the budget) when the real issue will be the $6 trillion in cuts in Ryan's proposed 2012 budget would have been entirely foolish -- especially as Ryan's budget will supersede those cuts. In effect, the people who are claiming Boehner failed by not standing firm are suggesting that he should have gone to the mat over $0.70 on a hundred dollar dispute that will become irrelevant in six months when a new budget is passed.

That's not a smart fight to wage, especially since Boehner will need the shutdown weapon in the future and using it too often or too soon will only get him labeled as a serial shutdowner, which will diminish its effectiveness?

2. The Riders. The riders also became an issue that set off both left and right. The left in particular is incensed, with Washington, D.C. Mayor Vincent Gray calling the deal “ludicrous” and claiming that District residents had “been sacrificed on the altar of political expediency.” Eleanor Holmes Norton said, “the administration and Senate Democrats . . . roll[ed] over and use[d] our right to self-govern as a bargaining chip. It appears that District residents and detainees at Guantanamo Bay were the only groups singled out in the bill.”

So who is right? Again, this was a clear victory for the right.

First, there was no way Republicans could get these items without shutting down the government. And it's not clear that would have worked with the Democrats having nothing to lose by causing chaos. Further, shutting down the government when the issue could be framed as an attempt to ban abortion or destroy the EPA would not have played well with a public that is overwhelming concerned with deficit issues.

More importantly, the Republicans turned this into a tremendous weapon for use against the Democrats in the upcoming election, which will prove to be much more important than any of these riders. A large chunk of Senate Democrats will be up for re-election in 2012, including numerous supposed moderates. The moderates, like Joe Manchin and Ben Nelson, maintain the illusion of their moderate-status by claiming to be pro-life and opposed to ObamaCare. So far, they've been able to get away with this because Harry Reid has assured them that he will never allow votes to defund ObamaCare or Planned Parenthood to make it to the Senate floor. This deal forces both of those votes. Now Manchin and Nelson and others will need to cast votes. If they vote against, then they are exposed to their voters. If they vote in favor, then these measures might pass. They are in a bind.

Also, the other riders will generate the kinds of data that will help the Republicans sell things like defunding ObamaCare because they will show the connection between influence peddling with Obama and the granting of waivers.

In the end, the most important victory here may be that these riders will help the Republicans capture the Senate seats they need to get total control over the budget process, which control will let them implement Ryan’s budget. This is much more important than trying to squeeze these few concession from the Democrats at the moment.

3. What’s Next?. The next battle will be raising the debt ceiling, which is likely to happen in May/June. Republican leadership aides are already saying they intend to use that to get more spending cuts and more reforms. After that comes Ryan’s 2012 budget, where the real war begins. That one probably won’t be over until after the 2012 elections. . . which will be the real fight and will make all of this nothing more than an opening round distraction.

Finally, as an interesting side note, Obama is now trying to claim credit for the cuts that he opposed from the get go. This is a pretty good indication that Obama’s internal polling tells him the Republicans are on the right side of this one. Sadly for him, the public won't credit him with this because he spent all of his time attacking the cuts and he seemed barely involved in the process. Moreover, the public has stopped giving him credit for good things. In fact, despite his efforts to claim credit for extending the Bush tax cuts, 60% of the public still think Obama plans to raise their taxes. It’s the same thing with the cuts, 58% of the public thinks Obama wants to increase spending. Good luck changing that mindset!

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Republicans Play Smart!

Prior to the Giffords shooting, the media was busy trying to discredit House Republicans for their first week in power. They spun stories of a lavish “Republican” fundraiser (though only a handful of Republicans attended), they whined about two Republicans not being properly sworn in (a non-issue at best), and they complained that Republicans didn’t cut $100 billion from the budget on day one. Of course, few people fell for these smears. What's more interesting though is something that's gone almost entirely unnoticed by the media, something that could turn out to be significant.



Years back, the Congress put a limit on the size of the federal debt. But the federal budget is so out of control that the Treasury keeps running into that limit. Consequently, the Congress must repeatedly vote to raise the debt ceiling or face the music as government spending grinds to a halt and the government begins defaulting on its obligations.



One such moment came up prior to the election. But with the Democrats likely to lose the election, they decided to set a trap for the Republicans. By voting only to extend the debt ceiling for a few months worth of spending, the Democrats hoped that one of the first votes the new Republican Congress would need to make would be to raise the debt ceiling. The Democrats hoped this would embarrass the Republicans and alienate them from their Tea Party allies. It seemed like a nice trick.



But like everything else the Democrats do, this one has blown up in their faces. Indeed, rather than just hold their noses and vote to raise the debt ceiling, as the Democrats expected, the Republicans decided to hold out until Obama agrees to budget concessions. Said Speaker John Boehner:

"The American people will not stand for such an increase unless it is accompanied by meaningful action by the president and Congress to cut spending and end the job-killing spending binge in Washington. While America cannot default on its debt, we also cannot continue to borrow recklessly, dig ourselves deeper into this hole, and mortgage the future of our children and grandchildren."

Even the RINOs are on board. Said Lindsey Graham (RINO-S.C.):

“This is an opportunity to make sure that the government is changing its spending ways. I will not the vote for the debt ceiling increase until I see a plan in place that will deal with our long-term obligations, starting with Social Security.”

Graham’s demands are similar to those of many Tea Party activists -- raise the retirement age for Social Security, means test benefits, and slash non-security discretionary spending to 2008 levels. The Republican leadership is on board as well, as are most members, though some are opposed to raising the debt ceiling under any circumstances.



Obama first tried to castigate the Republicans for “playing chicken” with “catastrophe,” but now indicates he’s willing to reach a deal with the Republicans. Harry Reid too has climbed on board, though many on the left continue to resist. Said Dick Durbin (D-Ill): "Using this doomsday scenario and putting the American economy at risk I don't think is a responsible way to govern." Wah!! What does Durbin know about responsibility?



What makes this such an interesting issue is that the Republicans could well be on the verge of obtaining actual, serious concessions from Obama. Consider that for a moment. When the Republicans won the House but not the Senate, the assumption was that nothing would happen until 2012, when Obama could be replaced and a majority obtained in the Senate. But through the careful application of political pressure, the Republicans may be about to obtain concessions that begin to right our fiscal house and reshape the federal budget toward conservative goals.



Combined with actual cuts ($35 billion in the House budget), Issa’s deviously clever plan to let American business have a hand in slashing regulations, and the seeming easy unity of Tea Party people and RINOs (and even some Democrats), things appear to be off to a pretty good start in Washington. Maybe these really aren’t the same old Republicans?



What do you think?



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Did A Light Bulb Come On Or Go Dark?

So how do we interpret some of the moves by the incoming Republicans? In particular, we have a curious decision by John Boehner in his selection of Fred Upton (R-Mich) as chairman of the House Energy & Commerce Committee. Upton is the moderate Republican responsible for the light bulb law. . . yeah, that one. So should this bother us?



When it came time to select a chairman of the HEC Committee, John Boehner had a choice between Upton and Cliff Stearns (R-Fla). The former chairman, Joe Barton of Texas, was term-limited from receiving the chairmanship. Many conservatives wanted Stearns, but Boehner chose Upton. Should we be concerned?



As always, these things are hard to say until we see how Upton acts. For example, Upton is a member of several moderate Republican groups and he was the author of the evil ban on incandescent light bulbs -- a ban about which Dennis Miller quipped: “I don't care what my electric bill is. I haven't worked my entire life so that my living room can look like a Soviet Bloc stairwell during a James Bond fight scene.”



But Upton now says he was wrong to support that ban and he opposes the law he helped create. He also has pledged to block the EPA’s attempt to back-door a cap-and-trade bill by regulation. Those are both positives.



Moreover, Upton may not be the moderate he seems. For example, he is generally considered a fiscal conservatives. Additionally, he says he wants to repeal ObamaCare because the bill ignored the will of the people and because he believes that such a significant bill should not have been passed over strong bipartisan opposition. He also argues that the current level of debt means ObamaCare is unaffordable. Those are all solidly conservative positions.



He has social conservative credentials as well in that he opposes abortion in most circumstances, including partial-birth abortion. He opposes gay marriage, and has earned only a 15% rating from the Human Rights Campaign. He supports gun right generally, though he did support some gun control laws, including the Brady Bill in 1993.



So how do we reconcile his light-bulb hating moderate credentials with his conservative promises? It could mean he’s simply saying what he thinks the public wants to hear? Moderates in particular are good at that. Or it could mean he’s realized he needs to shift his politics to the right to fit in with the incoming “Tea Party” Republicans? Or maybe, he simply had an epiphany? If so, it’s the same one the voters had. And let me remind you that many of the most conservative of conservatives were once Democrats or moderates or worse. Only time will tell us which of these is the answer.



So what should we make of Boehner choosing him? On the surface, this is troubling. But keep in mind that politics is a strange game that rarely is as simple as black and white. For example, Stearns may have been the more conservative choice, but he may not have been the superior choice. It’s hard to tell as we don’t sit in on the committee and, thus, we don’t see how effective each is. It’s possible Stearns simply lacked the gravitas or personality to lead the committee. Also, over the past few years, the power of the Speakership has grown to the point that the Speaker can control an errant committee chair. Thus, it’s unlikely Upton could do anything Boehner did not approve. Again, we just don't know.



In the end, I’m left with little to offer as a conclusion. We have a man who appears to be a moderate, but is now saying the right things. He has been appointed to a position that appears very important, but ultimately may have little power if he crosses John Boehner. Will this work for us or against us? I don't know. But I do know that this one sits on John Boehner’s head. So let us leave it at that for the moment. Boehner has taken a risk and we will watch to see how his choice plays out. If everything goes well, then Boehner deserves great credit for recognizing Upton's conversion. But if Upton goes back to his light bulb hating ways, then John Boehner will have to answer to the voters for his selection.





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GOP Leadership Continues To Flail

“The people to fear are not those who disagree with you, but those who disagree with you and are too cowardly to let you know.” -- Napoleon Bonaparte

I think we’re getting to the point where John Boehner and Eric Cantor should resign from the leadership. The latest incidence of cowardice and stupidity involves earmarks.

Earmarks are a problem. They aren’t the be-all-end-all problem that John McCain envisioned because they are only a minor percentage of the total budget (about 0.8% of the budget -- $20 billion out of $2.4 trillion), but their effect is corrosive. Earmarks are the tool individual Congress members use to bribe the people in their districts with their neighbor’s money. This is how the government gets involved in building bridges to nowhere and studying whether pornography excites hummingbirds, and this is why West Virginia has become a ward of the Federal Government.

The problem with earmarks is that they represent a corrupt system that judges the success or failure of individual members on their ability to score pork, rather than their effect on the government as a whole. If a member doesn't bring home enough projects to the district, then others stand ready to replace them. Thus, the incentive is to keep grabbing. And even if a particular district decides against getting its share of the plunder, other districts stand ready to take up what they've left on the table. Consequently, the system is set up where the rational choice for all concerned is to keep plundering and thereby always expand the size and scope of government.

And as if this were not bad enough, a system like this encourages dirty dealing, as we've seen repeatedly when Congress members and lobbyists have been arrested for trading campaign contributions for earmarks. Interesting, as the Washington Examiner reminded us this weekend, earmarks also are what allowed the Democrats to buy the votes of Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu and Bill Nelson to secure the passage of ObamaCare.

Thus, I was heartened in March when every single House Republican voted to ban earmarks. Said Mike Pence at the time: “Now House Republicans are going to the American people and saying we want a clean break from the runaway spending in the past. And that's going to be quite a contrast from this Congress and the administration.”

But that was then and this is now, and these are career politicians we are talking about. According to the Politico, both John Boehner and Eric Cantor “are leaving the door open to allowing earmarks after a one-year party-imposed moratorium.” Yep. Nothing says "principled stand" quite like agreeing to stop for only a short period of time, does it?

There is no excuse for this unprincipled cowardice, and this is fast becoming a pattern. All summer long, Boehner and Cantor remained silent as the rank and file of the party and the public rose up and demanded a new way, a way that should be entirely consistent with Republican principle. When they did speak, Boehner talked about procedures and Cantor whimpered about being careful not to be too extreme or too offensive. They have failed to embrace Paul Ryan’s plans, they failed to embrace the spirit of the Tea Party, they failed to embrace the 60% of the public that says Obama's way is the wrong way, they failed to see the need to put forth an agenda, and the agenda they finally put together appears to be nothing more than tinkering, gimmickry, and form over substance. And now we hear that they can’t even make a simple stand on principle like this. . . a stand they already agreed to take.

This is not leadership, and it's no surprise that 57% of GOP voters want a new leadership.

Jim DeMint has warned that the Republicans better deliver serious change. I agree. But I don’t think Boehner and Cantor get that, and even if they do, I don’t see that they have the courage to do it. And what makes this all the worse, we’re not even talking about needing real courage. They’re not being asked to risk their lives or even to do anything that would put them at odds with the public. They’re simply being ask to act according to the principles that they supposedly represent, principles that the vast majority of the public and their party want them to act upon.

If they can’t do that, then they should resign.


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In Praise of the Republicans

Wandering through the blogosphere this weekend, I’m amazed at the number of so-called conservatives who were busy taking shots at the Republicans over health care. In rants as ignorant as Glenn Beck’s they claim not to see what the Republicans have done and they whine that the Republicans and the Democrats are the same. Boo hoo. Idiots. Enough of you whiners. For the rest of you, let’s talk about what the Republicans have been doing, because it’s been impressive.

The Republican strategy has several parts and each have been executed perfectly.

1. Unity. The Republicans’ most impressive achievement has been maintaining unity in the face of intense pressure. And make no mistake, unity has been achieved. Even Joseph Cao (R-La), the sole Republican YES the first time through, will vote NO this time, just as RINOs Snowe and Collins did. Said Eric Cantor (R-Va): “The American people don't want this to pass. The Republicans don't want this to pass. There will be no Republican votes for this bill.”

Complete party unity is rare, and it is this unity that has put the Democrats’ rear ends in the ringer, because they cannot hide behind the “bipartisan bill canard.” They own this bill and its consequences. This also makes repeal easier as this bill is now seen as purely partisan, rather than for the benefit of the public.

2. Exposure. This bill is hanging around the necks of Democrats like a lead Albatross. And make no mistake, it’s not the blogosphere that made this happen, it was a concerted Republican strategy of constant attacks.

A. Defeating Obama’s Health Care Trap. Obama created the health care summit with the idea of trapping Republicans. He planned to expose them as the “party of no,” bereft of ideas, and thereby regain the public’s support on health care. But the Republicans, particularly Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.), exposed Obama as a fool, who didn’t know the contents of his own bill and couldn’t explain how to sell Dan Rather watermelons. This denied Obama the momentum he needed and brought us to the present situation where the Democrats are terrified to vote on this beast.

B. Exposing The Crooked Deals. The Republicans pounced on, exposed, and exploited every one of the crooked deal the Democrats made to buy votes:

• The Louisiana Purchase
• Excluding union plans and raising the limits on the Cadillac tax in union-friendly states.
• The Cornhusker Compromise
• Medicare Money for certain districts in Florida
• A hospital for Chris Dodd
• Water in California
• And most recently, the special treatment for Kaiser Permanente, the biggest provider in Nancy Pelosi’s district.

And don’t believe for a minute that these issues had any traction if the Republicans hadn’t been pushing them. It was Republican staffers who found these deals, Republican Congressmen who exposed them, and Republican politicians who went on the offensive -- everyone from Republican Governors who disclaimed these payouts, to state Republican Attorneys General who threatened to sue over them, to every Republican Congressman who could find a microphone.

Indeed, when the fix doesn’t happen, it will be Republican Attorneys General who lead the legal charge against these special treatments and who blast huge holes in the bill’s provision on 10th Amendment grounds.

C. Slaughtering The Slaughter Rule. Just as the cover-up from Watergate was worse than the act itself, the Democrats’ attempts to hide their votes have proven to be far worse than the vote itself. And it was the Republicans who’ve beaten this drum.

The Republicans took on the “deem and pass” provision and instantly named it the Slaughter Rule. Then they blasted the Democrats all over the country for trying such a sneaky, responsibility-avoiding technique. Add in that, at the same time, Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Oh) went on the air and blasted the Democrats for their cowardice in being unwilling to put their votes on the line. He not only slammed the Slaughter Rule, he opposed Pelosi’s plan for a voice vote, demanding that Pelosi force her members to go to the floor before “God, their countrymen and their constituents” to unveil their votes.

When the Republican States Attorneys General announced they would challenge the Slaughter Rule on a constitutional basis, the Democrats finally abandoned it, but not before doing incredible harm to themselves. . . including voting to clear the path for the rule. When they announced they would challenge the Cornhusker Compromise, panicked Democrats tried to remove it from the bill, but couldn’t.

At the same time, the Republicans even opened their closed-door caucus meetings to the public just to contrast their open and honest position with the closed-door dealing the Democrats are doing.

The blowback from all of this has been intense. Most Americans don’t buy the “it’s socialist” argument, but they do understand evasion and cowardice when they see it. And it was the constant drumbeat from elected Republicans that exposed this.

3. Undercutting the Democrats’ Confidence. The biggest problem for House Democrats has been fear that the Senate would not be able to pass the “fix” portion of the bill. To calm them, their leadership has been putting out a series of puffery statements about the process these bills will undertake. Specifically, they describe the process by saying that after the Senate bill is passed, the House will pass the “fix” bill, which will then be fast-tracked in the Senate, where Reid promises to have the 51 votes needed. The end.

But the Republicans have cleverly tossed a thousand wrenches into this. The Republicans in the Senate have been busy preparing challenges to every single page of the reconciliation bill, in the hopes of turning the bill into Swiss cheese. They have also been busy preparing thousands of amendments with the idea of delaying any vote until right before the election, to keep this wound fresh in the public’s mind. Oklahoma’s Tom Coburn has taken the lead on this. At the same time, normally collegial Senators like Orin Hatch (R-Utah) have been tossing the Democratic leadership's lies back in the faces of their wavering members: “If those people think they’re only going to vote on this once, they’re nuts.”

The effects of this on Democratic psyches cannot be overstated.

4. Abortion Brilliance. When the Republicans in the House backed the Stupak amendment, many bloggers whined that it was a sell out by the Republicans to support any portion of the bill. Why couldn’t these weak Republicans be as strong willed as these iron blogger, they insisted from their anonymous safety. Some of us, however, pointed out that it was a brilliant move to keep the abortion issue alive. This has now proven to be correct, as that issue has torn the Democrats apart. And even though it appears they've solved the issue for now, the price they paid among their supporters is heavy.

5. Taking It To November. In addition to the above, the Republicans have undertaken an aggressive campaign against the Democrats who have decided to vote for this atrocity. Every Republican who could find a microphone has blasted the Democrats on these issues and said, as Minority Leader Boehner said this morning, that this vote will haunt the Democrats in November and that the Democratic leadership is “sacrificing a big number of their members.” Warns Boehner: “I don’t think any American is going to forget this vote anytime soon.”

Or as Mike Pence (R-Ind) says: “I don’t know, quite frankly, whether victory will come on the third Sunday in March or on the first Tuesday in November, but victory will come.”

The Republicans have also begun running ads in the districts of every Democrat who switches from a NO to a YES, attacking their decision. In one entertaining moment, they even released a press release when Ohio Democrat John Boccieri announced his switch, that read: “Ohio Dem Uses Press Conference to Announce End of Stint in Congress.”

Coburn and Hatch have also promised to filibuster any pork promised to the Democrats to get their votes, and they have sworn to hold up the appointments of any Democrats who lose their seats in the coming backlash.

Again, do not underestimate the psychological effect of this.

6. Grinding Everything to A Halt. Since the Republicans can’t stop the health care bill, they have taken out other targets in retaliation. Indeed, Schumer and Dodd, and others, have all complained that the health care bill has killed their efforts to reach agreements on an immigration bill and financial regulation, as well as everything else.

7. The Big “R” Word. Finally, this morning, John Boehner trotted out the “Repeal” word. While the blogosphere has been whining for this for weeks, Boehner was smarter. By waiting to raise this word until today, he not only avoided giving the Democrats a reason to circle the wagons, but he prevented any sense from arising that the passage of this bill was inevitable, which has kept the heat on wavering Democrats. Now is the perfect time to use the big R word:

“If this bill passes, we will have an effort to repeal the bill, and we'll do it the same way that we approached health care on a step by step basis. I'd have a bill on the floor the first thing out, to eliminate the Medicare cuts, eliminate the tax increases, eliminate the mandate that every American has to buy health insurance and the employer mandate that's going to cover jobs.”

Great work Republicans.

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