The Senate: Why Winning Isn't Enough

Senate Democrats have some serious problems in November. Not only will they be weighed down by a deeply unpopular Obama and their own vile actions over the past couple years, but they are facing a significant enthusiasm gap. Also, they are defending many more seats. What’s more, their people are choosing to retire rather than fight. So I think winning the Senate is all but assured. But we need more than just winning, and we aren't going to get it.



The key fight in this next election cycle will be the Senate. The Senate is important because it can block most reforms. President GenericRepublican (R) can do a lot of reforming from inside the Executive Branch, but anything like repealing laws, reforming entitlements, or amending the tax code will need to overcome a Senate filibuster. And filibusters aplenty you should expect. . . by the plethora. Indeed, expect the Democrats to filibuster everything because they have no incentive whatsoever to cooperate. So we need 60 seats.



Actually, we need 64 or 65 seats because the Republicans have a RINO problem. But what are the chances of that happening? Frankly, zero. So let's go with 60.



The Republicans currently hold 47 seats. The Democrats hold 53. In 2012, 23 Democratic seats and 10 Republican seats will be up for grabs. Most pollsters say it’s unlikely the Republicans will lose any seats, though I personally predict a surprise loss for Scott Brown in Massachusetts as most of his base in the last election will refuse to turn out. Hence, the Republicans need to win either 13 or 14 out of 23 seats to get to 60.



The problem is, there’s no “roadmap” to get them there, i.e. there just aren’t enough competitive seats. Consider:



Helping the Republicans, six Democrats have decided to quit rather than face re-election. This includes: Joe Lieberman (Conn.), Daniel Akaka (Hawaii), Jeff Bingaman (New Mexico), Kent Conrad (North Dakota), James Webb (Virginia), and Herb Kohl (Wisconsin). Unfortunately, Lieberman’s seat and Akaka’s seat are all but assured to remain Democratic. The other four are considered up for grabs.



Also, depending on who you ask, Democratic seats in Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Michigan, Florida, Ohio and West Virginia are all up for grabs.



So do the math. Eleven total seats are considered up for grabs. That is not enough. Even if we win each seat, we will still be two seats short of 60. What’s more, I don’t think each of these is legitimately up for grabs. Every election we hear about seats in liberal bastions (e.g. Washington state, California, New Jersey) being up for grabs, and every election cycle these turn out to be mirages. This election is no different. I know, for example, from personal experience in the state that Joe Manchin simply cannot be beaten in West Virginia. History tells me that Ben Nelson also will win Nebraska quite easily despite his role in ObamaCare. I also have my doubts about Wisconsin and New Mexico. So I’m thinking that only seven Democratic seats are actually up for grabs. That works out to 54 total seats if we win them all.



Unfortunately, winning only 54 seats would be a disaster. Not only does that mean we can’t stop filibusters, but it also means that our 3-5 seat RINO contingent will hold a lot of power should the Republicans try to achieve anything through reconciliation. That means most (if not all) reform will need to come from the White House. Unfortunately, that all but excludes entitlement and tax reform.



Now, there are some factors that may affect this. For example, Obama’s incredibly low poll numbers suggest a landslide against him, which could mean inverse coattails will drag down the Democratic candidates. There is also some evidence for this in a 6% enthusiasm gap found by the Democratic PPP pollsters. That too could be serious trouble for these Democratic candidates (the 2010 election showed an 8% enthusiasm gap). But I think it’s unlikely this will do anything more than improve our chances of winning the toss up seats.



That’s a little depressing, but it’s better to know the truth and adjust accordingly. Indeed, this tells me that we need to focus much more carefully on what our Presidential candidate has to say about reforming government. . . because the Congress isn’t going to be a lot of help.



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The Day The Democratic Party Died

Hear that silence? That’s the sound of the last missed-opportunity the Democratic “moderates” are going to get to fix their rotten party. For years now, the leftists in the media have been obsessed with the Republican fringe. They do article after article about how the Republican party is dominated by its fringes and how that makes it unpalatable to the American public. Yet, they ignore the Democrats, the real party dominated by its fringes. The current health care debate is giving “moderate” Democrats one last chance to retake their party. Sadly, they aren’t up to the task.

You may recall my open letter to the Democrats from a week or so ago. In it, I pointed out that they had become a rotten party. They are a party of spite, of anger, of tribalism. They seek to destroy rather than help. They demonize and they hate. That is their activist base; that is their leadership.

But the moderates have always claimed that they are not the same as their leaders. They call themselves “moderates” or “blue dogs” and they make a lot of noise about being something other than what their party has become. But it’s all an illusion. . . or a delusion. No matter what they want to think of themselves, these same “moderates” support leaders who push a hate-filled, destructive agenda on an unwilling population, and they will vote for any hard-left proposal for which they are told to vote. They are at best “useful idiots” or “fellow travelers,” at worst co-conspirators.

So why talk about this now? Because the current environment gives these moderates possibly the last chance they will ever have to rescue their party and bring it back from the brink.

The American public is furious. They oppose every single thing the Democrats are trying to do in overwhelming numbers. In survey after survey, close to 60% of the population opposes (often strongly or angrily) what the Democrats are doing. The public is intent on throwing them out, possibly for a generation.

This is the exact environment these self-described moderates need to reshape the Democratic Party. They need to redefine their principles and then take a stand on those principles. They need to announce to the world, their intent to change their party and their determination to work with the Republicans to frustrate the fringe agenda being foisted upon us.

They need to say something like this:

“We can no longer support the direction the party is taking. It is time that we stop treating the public as an enemy and start listening to the American people. We must put behind us the era of identity politics and race baiting, the era of class warfare, the destructive politics of spite and envy. There can be no room in our party for such beliefs or for those who would be believe them. Liberalism is about helping those who need it, not hurting those we think have too much.”

“We will no longer support irresponsible uncontrolled spending, or spending on pet projects and special interests. We are here to represent the American people, not just some of them. We cannot support a health care bill that does nothing to cut costs or improve the quality of care, that is financed on the backs of retired people, or that relies on fraudulent accounting. We can no longer support midnight votes on secret bills. We must rethink the way our government works.”

“It is time to chart an old course for the Democratic Party, to make it again into the party that Jefferson built, that Roosevelt built, that JFK built. We must stop being a party that listens to Karl Marx and acts like it’s run by Groucho Marx.”

Then they need to follow this up by denying leadership votes to Pelosi et al. They should work with the Republicans to form, basically, a coalition government -- one that tracks mainly center with some liberalism mixed in.

But they won’t because they are afraid of their fringe. Though nothing could be further from the truth, they’ve bought into the idea that they can’t win re-election unless they pander to their fringe. So they cower and they collaborate.

I say “bought into” because the idea that fringes have power is false. The only power the left-fringe has is in refusing to support a candidate. They could run a primary challenge, but that rarely works. . . especially against a popular politician. And in most states and the overwhelming majority of districts, the leftist fringe is too small to matter.

Take Nelson, for example. Nebraska is a largely non-partisan, relatively conservative state. Nelson is(was) a popular politician -- he was known primarily as a governor who cut taxes. So does anyone really believe that he could be unseated in a primary challenge by some wild-eyed, socialist mouth-breather? Not likely. And do you really think he will be better off having voted for this health care seizure and betraying the people of Nebraska than he would have been had he stood up to this loony plan?

If I were to run against Nelson, I would start now (hint hint) and I would put out ads explaining what Nelson has done in the Nelson/Pelosi Health Care Seizure Act. And when 2012 ran around, there would be thousands of signs all over Nebraska asking:

• “Has Pelosi/Nelson improved your health care?”
• “Did you get coverage?”
• “Is your health insurance cheaper?”
• “Did Ben Nelson forget to mention the fines?”
• “Did you get what you’re paying for?”

But the moderates aren’t serious. Rather than band together and rise up, they remain silent. . . or whisper “can I get something to bribe my constituents?” Or they lie. In fact, it’s become a virtual truth holocaust whenever they discuss their agenda. One of my Colorado Senators (they may be the same guy as far as I can tell) has an ad running right now that is nearly 100% false -- the only part that appears to be true is the bastard’s acknowledgement that he’s a United States Senator.

And Nelson? In a most telling moment, “conservative” Democrat Nelson said this regarding the angry response of the people of his state:

“This is all orchestrated. It’s so thinly disguised. . . it’s almost laughable.”

Laughable? The anger of the American people is laughable?

It’s time to face reality. The Democratic Party is dead. And in its place now stands a hard-core, hate-filled socialist, apartheid party. There are no moderates in that party, and those that claim to be moderate are lying.

For those of you who still cling to the idea of a Democratic Party but aren’t ardent socialists or outraged members of some interest group, it’s time to move on.

So why does this matter to me? Shouldn’t I be happy that these daffy fools are about to commit political suicide? Well, yes. But politics works best when you have two vibrant parties competing for ideas. Right now we don’t have that. In place of the second party, we have this collection of lunatics and hate-mongers calling themselves Democrats.

Jefferson is spinning in his grave.

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ObamaCare: All Bets Are Off. . .

By now you’ve all heard that Sen. Ben Nelson did what we all thought he would, he gave up his principles in exchange for a few favors for his constituents. . . the nation’s insurers. This means the rump-Baucus bill will pass the Senate. What does this mean? What happens next? Read on. . .

1. You’ve been tricked by your Senators.

The first thing to realize (and I hope the lousy people of Nebraska and Louisiana and the Democratic parts of Florida are listening) is that the Baucus bill and all of your ill-gotten gains and privileges are now likely worthless. Your Senators have played you for suckers.

How can I say this? Because there are at least 51 Senators who will vote for the final product even if it includes a nuclear strike on your home state. That means the Senate is now irrelevant. . . it will pass whatever comes out of the conference committee, no matter how much your Senator whines that it’s not fair.

The future of your special favors now rests in the hands of the liberal Democrats in the House. That means a likely return of the public option -- and Joe Lieberman can do nothing about it. That also means they can strip out the benefits for which Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu and Bill Nelson all sold their souls. That means they can ram through funding for abortion, coverage for illegal aliens, and taxes on you and yours. . . and there’s not a damn thing your Senator can do about it.

But they knew that. So when your Senate creature comes back to its home state on bended knee and it tells you through crocodile-tear-stained eyes that it thought it had a deal in place to protect you. . . don’t believe it. It’s lying.

2. What happens next?

What happens next is the bill goes to the conference committee made up of a group of Senators and a group of Representatives appointed by each chamber. They will argue over the final shape of the bill. They usually cannot add anything not already included in either the House or the Senate version (though this can be waived), but that’s not really relevant in this instance as the two bills together already cover everything the liberals in either chamber want.

In other words, even though the Senate stripped out the public option, the House included one. . . thus, the conference committee can put it back into the final bill, and Joe Lieberman can whine about being misled by Harry Reid.

3. Will the final bill pass?

Probably, but we’ll have to wait and see what format the bill ultimately takes. As I said above, don’t expect the Senate to do anything at this point except become a rubber stamp for the House. But the House hasn’t solved its own problems yet. The abortion people are furious on either side and finding a compromise that reconciles their polar opposite positions will be difficult. The immigrant groups are furious about the exclusion of illegal aliens. There is still anger, in both directions, about the inclusion/exclusion of the public option.

And the real winners right now are the insurance companies, which will upset House liberals to no end. Indeed, right now, insurers not only gained freedom from state regulation through this OPM plan, but 30 million more people will be forced to buy their products. Thank you Santa . . . or is it Satan?

In any event, this will be difficult to pass through the House. The House voted 220-215 to pass the bill originally. A loss of three additional votes would kill the bill. With Democrats talking openly about being willing to lose 20-40 seats to get this done, one has to wonder if more “moderate” Democrats won’t decide that their futures lie in opposing this bill? We’ll have to wait and see. . . just how suicidal are these Democrats?

4. What should the Republicans do now?

The Republicans have actually fought an extremely good fight on this. They deserve a ton of credit -- and let me add, the blame for not stopping this lies with the voters who thought they could trust the Democrats with a super-majority.

But now the game is changing. Any Republican who wants to lead the party in the future better start working language into their appearances about repealing this monster. That should become the leading issue in 2010 and 2012.

"Save HealthCare, Repeal PelosiCare"

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Fear and Loathing In D.C.

If there is one thing the Democrats are good at, it’s political theater. Watching them act is like melodrama of the highest order. . . or a low quality soap opera. Of all their recent fooling around, nothing approaches the drama they are generating with health care reform. Fear, hate and revenge fill the air of the Senate. . .

News Item: Dorgan Terrifies Democrats

After fourteen days of debate, the Senate has managed to vote on only eight amendments. Why has the process ground to a halt you ask? Because of little-known Senator Byron Dorgan, who, having fallen for an e-mail scam about a Mexican pharmacy, has introduced an amendment to allow the government to import prescription drugs from other countries.

This has frozen the Democrats with terror. Imagine Dorgan pulling this amendment from his briefcase as the other Democrats huddle together in a distant corner, afraid of the radioactive document. And why is it radioactive? Because this document puts them in a bind. Their idiot followers demand that they PUNISH the drug industry. But the drug industry has been bought off by the White House in a quasi-secret deal to support this reform. Passing this amendment would turn the pharma industry (and their powerful lobby) against them. Thus, they are frozen, unsure what to do.

News Item: Nelson II Terrifies Self

Meanwhile, Sen. Bill Nelson turns the Democratic position that $460 billion in Medicare cuts won’t hurt Medicare into farce. He’s decided that his political survival requires him to offer an amendment to the bill that will exempt three Democratic counties in South Florida with large retirement populations from Medicare cuts. So why would this bill hurt the oldsters in Palm Beach, Dade and Broward counties. . . but no one else in the country?

News Item: Howard Dean Suggests Billocide

A frustrated Howard Dean has told every camera he can find that this bill should be killed. “The Senate version is not worth passing,” growled an angry Howard Dean, a possible gun owner. “The insurance companies got to write this bill the way they wanted to. This isn’t health care reform, this isn’t even insurance reform.” He then noted, in a bizarre moment of honesty, that the bill “does nothing to reduce costs.” And he angrily poked fun at the idea that the bill would cover people with pre-existing conditions: “You can’t afford it, even if you are allowed to buy it.” I wonder if any of ObamaCare's utopian supporters heard those comments?

News Item: Nelson I Rediscovers Principles

Now that it appears the bill cannot pass, Sen. Ben Nelson has rediscovered his principles and states that he won’t support this bill unless the Stupak-like abortion language is inserted.

Meanwhile, the abortion lobby is gearing up to hunt Stupak.

News Item: Democrats Get Their Hate On For Lieberman

But the real hate this week has been aimed at Sen. Joe Lieberman. First, there were hints that Joe might lose his chairmanship. Then the Democrats went a little (lot) crazy. Screamed the shrill Ezra Klein of the Washington Post:

“And if there's a policy rationale here, it's not apparent to me, or to others who've interviewed him. At this point, Lieberman seems primarily motivated by torturing liberals. That is to say, he seems willing to cause the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people in order to settle an old electoral score.”

And loony Klein is not alone. Jonathan Chait of The New Republic, makes the same claim:

“He seems to view the prospect of sticking it to the liberals who supported his Democratic opponent in 2006 as a goal potentially worth sacrificing the lives of tens of thousands of Americans to fulfill.”

Chait then gets his anti-Semitism on to explain Lieberman’s actions:

“[T]here's little evidence that he's a sharp or clear thinker, and certainly no evidence that he knows or cares about the details of health care reform. . . I suspect that Lieberman is the beneficiary, or possibly the victim, of a cultural stereotype that Jews are smart and good with numbers. Trust me, it's not true.”

He finishes by accusing Lieberman of simply being anti-liberal:

“If the liberals like it, then he figures it's big government and he should oppose it. I think it's basically that simple.”

Hate-filled, leftist Huffington Post blogger (or is that redundant) Jane Hamsher has gotten out her long knives for Lieberman’s wife. She accuses Hadassah Lieberman of being a shill for the insurance industry (hmmm, didn’t Howard Dean mention insurance companies above?). Hamsher, thus, wants Mrs. Lieberman fired from being a spokesman for the Susan G. Komen Foundation, which fights breast cancer. She also accuses Hadassah of “being instrumental” in killing HillaryCare.

No word yet on whether Hamsher is looking to injure Lieberman’s kids, but I haven’t read all of her diatribes.

But these are just bloggers and/or Howard Dean -- they don’t count. No real politician would act this way, right? Actually, they would. Democratic Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut is calling for Connecticut to recall Lieberman, even though Connecticut has no law to do this and even though the United States Constitution does not allow states to do this.

“No individual should hold health care hostage, including Joe Lieberman, and I’ll say it flat out, I think he out to be recalled.”

Added Connecticut Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy, “People are fed up in Connecticut, and it’s maddening to those of us who feel we have a pretty clear sense of where people in Connecticut are.”

Nice. So if you don’t toe the party line, you need to be removed from office. And these same little totalitarians had the nerve to blast the Republicans for suggesting that candidates who did not agree to 8 of 10 positions would not get financial assistance. Hypocrisy, thy name is “Democratic Party.”

So why did Lieberman do it? According to Lieberman, he was particularly troubled by the overly enthusiastic reaction to the Medicare proposal by liberals who had been championing the public option:

“Congressman Weiner made a comment that Medicare buy-in is better than a public option, it’s the beginning of a road to single-payer. Jacob Hacker, who’s a Yale professor who is actually the man who created the public option, said, ‘This is a dream. This is better than a public option. This is a giant step.’”

*** BREAKING NEWS ***

Finally, we predicted a few weeks ago, that liberals would soon begin throwing around the word “betrayal.” Guess what word The Politico used to describe how liberals feel about Obama’s behavior:

“And as Democrats tried to salvage health reform Tuesday, some liberals could barely hide their sense of betrayal that the White House and congressional Democrats have been willing to cut deals and water down what they consider the ideal vision of reform.”

and

“Progressives feel betrayed, but are not surprised, by the Senate’s move to drop the Medicare buy-in and the public option. They blame Reid and Obama for not exercising their power to fight for the provisions.”

Equally interesting, check out the conspiracy theory thinking being promoted by our old friend Jane Hamsher:

“They were very good at making it look like they wanted a public option in the final bill without actually doing anything to make it happen. It’s hard to believe that the two most powerful people in the country — arguably the world — could not do more to achieve their desired objective than to hand the keys over to Joe Lieberman. They would not be where they are if they are that bad at negotiation.”

Wow, so Obama didn't fail, he never really tried?! How about a tin-foil hat to go with your brown shirt Jane! It’s all a plot! The bells!! The bells!!!

If anyone ever needed proof that leftists are petulant and unbalanced, here it is.

Enjoy!

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Health Care Reform: No Deal??

This one’s interesting. Do you remember the big deal last week to get the Baucus bill through the Senate? Yeah, that one. . . with the liberals “giving up” the public option and the moderates agreeing to destroy Medicare sooner by letting people as young as 55 into Medicare? Well, apparently, that deal may not exist. Curious.

The first clue we had that there was no deal should have been the refusal of the Democrats to release the terms of the deal, while simultaneously crowing about "the deal" to any microphone they could find. And as the week went on, and no details of the deal emerged, people began to ask questions. That’s when the most fascinating thing happened, the admissions started coming out.

First came Sen. Bob Casey, who told the New York Times: “Any big agreement is progress, even if we do not know any of the details.” Read that again. How can there be an agreement with no details?

Maybe Casey is just out of the loop, being from a small, backwater state like Pennsylvania. Let’s listen to Dick Durbin, the Number 2 Democrat in the Senate respond to John McCain’s demand for information about the deal, i.e. the legislation, they’re supposed to be voting on. Surely he knows the details:

“I would say to the senator from Arizona that I’m in the dark almost as much as he is, and I’m in the leadership.”

*scratches head* Really? Hmm. How can this be?

McCain followed up on Durbin's admission with the following:

“Isn’t that a very unusual process? We are discussing one-sixth of the gross national product; the bill before us has been a product of almost a year of sausage-making. Yet here we are at a position on December 12, with a proposal that none of us, except, I understand, one person, the Majority Leader, knows what the final parameters are, much less informing the American people. I don't get it.”

And Durbin, of course, denied this, right? Actually, no. “I think the senator [from Arizona] is correct.” But Durbin did try to shift the blame to the CBO, arguing that the reason no one knew the details was that they awaited the big, bad, secretive CBO’s verdict: “We may find that something that was sent over there doesn’t work at all, doesn’t fly.”

You think? How about these two problems you face. First, the Democrats are counting on $25 billion in phantom savings from “competition created by the public option” to reduce the overall cost of the bill. No public option, no phantom savings. That means they now need to find an additional $25 billion to make their phony numbers appear to balance.

Secondly, nobody likes the plan to expand Medicare. Old people are freaked out that their health insurance is about to go away. Hospitals are freaked out that they cannot afford this (they lose nine cents on each dollar of health care they provide under Medicare already). Governors claim it’s breaking their budgets. Even those socialists at the Business Roundtable are backing off this turkey.

Various senators don’t like the plan either. Said Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida (not to be confused with Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska), this deal is a “non-starter.” That’s a strange thing to say for a man who just made an agreement.

And he’s not alone. Ten more Democrats wrote a letter this week complaining that this compromise would make it harder for seniors to get treatment under Medicare because “provider shortages in states with low reimbursement rates such as ours will make such a program ineffective, or even worsen the problems these states are experiencing.” These ten were: Sens. Maria Cantwell (Wash.), Russ Feingold (Wisc.), Tim Johnson (S.D.), Patrick Leahy (Vermont), Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), Tom Udall (N.M.), Jeff Merkley (Ore.), Ron Wyden (Ore.), Amy Klobuchar (MN), and Al Franken (SNL).

Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson and Olympia Snowe also criticized the proposal. Lieberman indicated that he was growing “increasingly concerned” with the proposal:

“I am increasingly troubled about the proposal. I am worried about what impact it will have on the Medicare program’s fiscal viability and also what effect it will have on the premiums paid by people benefiting from Medicare now.”

Nelson stated that this could be an intermediate step to a public option “which I do not like.” He further stated, “I wouldn’t be surprised if this thing does not become a viable option. I think it is going to be the lesser of the popular things, but I am keeping an open mind.”

Olympia Snowe was not as optimistic. “I have serious concerns. I just think that is the wrong direction to take.” She further stated that she could not see a way to even tweak the proposal to win her vote. “I can’t see it.”

Maybe there was no deal after all? It’s sure starting to sound that way.

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Senator Exposes Himself!

Ever since Reagan swept the land, the Democrats have done their best to hide their agenda. This has included trying to disguise their agenda behind false market economics, trying to create new labels for failed ideas, and sometimes flat out lying about what they believe. One trick of which they are quite fond is a trick that Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska just pulled on his voters. . . the old, “I really am against what I’m supporting” trick.

The backdrop: As you know, the Democrats are struggling to get the Baucus bill out of the Senate. They need sixty votes and they are stuck on two issues: abortion and the public option. The reason these two issues are presenting such a problem is not that the Democrats don’t overwhelmingly agree on both issues, it’s that they need the support of 60 Senators to move the bill forward for a vote. With Republican opposition firm, and Joe Lieberman joining the Republicans in opposing a public option, the Democrats cannot pass the bill if it includes a public option. At the same time, since the Democrats literally cannot afford to lose one vote, the opposition of any Democrat would prove disastrous. That’s where abortion comes in.

Sen. Ben Nelson claims to be an opponent of abortion. Thus, he introduced a bill that would impose the same limits on abortion under the Baucus bill that currently exist under PelosiCare. Basically, he introduced his version of the Stupak Amendment. The Stupak Amendment (or in this case the Nelson Amendment) would prevent insurers from indirectly paying for abortions through the use of accounting fictions whereby money is separated into supposedly separate pools. Said Nelson: “Segregation of funds is an accounting gimmick. The reality is federal funds would help buy coverage that includes abortion.”

This was a make or break issue Sen. Nelson told the people of Nebraska -- though few intelligent people believed him because he’s a Democrat and they will sacrifice their deepest held beliefs without a second thought whenever those beliefs stand in the way of “progress.” The doubters were right.

When he introduced this amendment, Sen. Nelson made it clear on several occasions that he would not support any bill that did not include this language.

“As written, the Senate health care bill allows taxpayer dollars, directly and indirectly, to pay for insurance plans that cover abortion. Most Nebraskans, and Americans, do not favor using public funds to cover abortion and as a result this bill shouldn’t open the door to do so.”

The amendment lost 54-45. So here comes his statement of conscience, his principled stand right? What? Why are you laughing? You think a Democrat can’t take a stand on principle? Well. . . apparently, you’re right. Right after the vote, Nelson (as predicted) did not reaffirm that he would oppose the bill, no. . . he only stated that this “makes it harder” for him to support the bill. He added, “We’ll just have to see what develops.”

Translation: “People of Nebraska, I will never compromise my principles until they are actually put to a vote.”

This, by the way, is after Nelson participated in a huge fraud to begin with. He let the Democrats threaten the insurance industry with the loss of their anti-trust exemption (Nelson is partially owned by the Nebraska-based insurance industry and partially owned by the ethanol lobby). He then graciously accepted a withdrawal of that threat in exchange for his vote on Baucus -- allowing him to sell his “reluctant support” to the people of Nebraska as being in their own interest. Shameless.

But Nelson wasn’t the only one to be exposed. Harry Reid too lies to his constituents. He claims to be anti-abortion, but he said this of this health care bill:

“This is not the right place for this debate. . . No one should use the issue of abortion to rob millions of the opportunity to get good health care.”

Translation: “People of Nevada, I really am anti-abortion, just like I’ve been telling you. . . I just think we should allow public funding of abortion.”

Of course, they aren't the only ones who have exposed themselves. You know about Landrieu accepting a $300 billion pay off for her vote. Blanche Lincoln has made it clear she will act against the overwhelming interests of her constituents, as have many others like fellow Arkansas Sen. David Pryor. The AMA was exposed. It supported this monster, despite two-to-one opposition from doctors. AARP supported this even though the elderly overwhelmingly oppose it -- they were bought off with a promise to eliminate Medicare Advantage, which will lead to nine million more elderly needing AARP-sponsored insurance. In fact, the entire left-wing lobby has been exposed. . . the list goes on and on.

The issue of the public option also took a strange turn yesterday, and may have exposed more senators. Supposedly moderate Democrats like David Pryor agreed to "drop" the public option in exchange for non-profit plans administered by the Office of Personnel Management. Hmm. That sounds a lot like a public option to me. . . and it does to Harry Reid too:

“It is a consensus that includes a public option and will help ensure the American people win in two ways. One, insurance companies will face more competition, and two, the American people will have more choices."

The cries of the little socialists as Huffpo not withstanding, it's clear that the public option still exists. So can you name a senator who swore that he would never support any plan that included a public option or could lead to a public option? That's right, it was Joe Lieberman. Guess what Joe said this morning? Joe indicated this morning that he may be willing to support this new public option: "I am encouraged by the progress toward a consensus."

Why am I not surprised.


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Harry Reid’s Mistake On The Public Option

Not a full post tonight, but I wanted to update everyone on Harry Reid’s public option mistake and on who is important in the Senate right now (** cough cough call them cough **). As you know, I wrote the other day that I thought they would have a problem passing the Baucus bill. One of the reasons listed was the public option debate. Guess what. . .

You may have heard that yesterday, Harry Reid announced that the Baucus bill would include a public option. In fact, he selected a public option that states could “opt out of”, and that was that -- the end. At the time, the left declared this a victory and their friends in the media trumpeted the coming of ObamaCare.

But as I watched Harry give his press conference, it was clear that he was nervous. Sure, he was angry -- lashing out at Republicans, and he was smug, but he refused to answer whether he was sure that he had the 60 votes he needs for cloture, i.e. to prevent a filibuster. He had clearly gambled.

Not more than five minutes after his lips stopped flapping, CNBC announced that Olympia Snowe was very upset by this. And while she did not say that she would not vote closure, she indicated that she could not support a bill with an “opt out” or “opt in” provision. Whoops. (FYI, Reid then attacked her, commenting that she has been “frightened” into dropping her support. Sounds sexist to me.)

This morning, Joe Lieberman, who is fast becoming my favorite Democrat, announced that he would not support this bill. But even more so, he noted that he would filibuster the bill if it continues to include a public option:

“I’ve told Sen. Reid that if the bill stays as it is now, I will vote against cloture. I can’t see a way in which I could vote for cloture on any bill that contained a creation of a government-operated-run insurance company. It’s just asking for trouble – in the end, the taxpayers are going to pay and probably all people will have health insurance are going to see their premiums go up because there’s going to be cost shifting as there has been for Medicare and Medicaid.”

Honestly, Lieberman’s opposition was unexpected. Don’t get me wrong, I’m thrilled. I just didn’t think he would stand in the way of this.

With Lieberman and Snowe bolting, Reid cannot bring the bill for a vote because he’s only got 59 votes. Even worse for Reid, Lieberman and Snowe’s defections are now encouraging others to start wavering. Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb) and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La) both had already voiced reservations and have now confirmed their reservations (though they have stopped short of saying they won’t vote for the bill). But now, Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del) says that he is unhappy with the bill and will seek to make changes on the Senate floor. Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind) also has voiced concerns over the bill and now will not say which way he will vote on cloture (Bayh is upset about $40 billion in taxes imposed on medical equipment providers).

So while this battle is far from over, it looks like Harry’s declaration proved to be a total disaster. And I suspect that the longer this goes without resolution, the greater the chance that more Democrats will revolt -- not to mention that they still need to merge this with a House bill that is entirely unpalatable to most of the Senate.

If you feel like calling or writing anyone in Congress, these would be the people. Tell them that you see a vote for closure as a vote for the public option. . . and you don’t want a public option.

In the meantime, get some popcorn, kick back, and watch the fall out from Harry’s bomb.

** UPDATE: Olympia Snowe has now said that she will vote against cloture. Thus, Reid does not have the sixty votes he needs.


(FYI, I will put up an article outlining why the Baucus bill can be repealed tomorrow night. Thanks for your patience.)


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Why The Baucus Bill Probably Won't Pass

For some time now, I have doubted that Obama would get ObamaCare. I did think, however, that he would get some face-saving version. The Baucus bill is that face saving version. But now I’m not so sure even that will pass. And even if it does, a Republican majority should be able to repeal it fairly easily. Let’s take this in two parts. Today is part one: why the Baucus bill might not pass.

There are five primary reasons that the Democrats might not be able to garner the support they need to pass this bill: (1) the lack of a natural constituency supporting the bill, (2) the cost, (3) disputes over how to pay for the bill, (4) disputes over the public option and (5) abortion.

1. The Lack Of A Natural Constituency Supporting The Bill

Before we delve too deeply into the Democrats’ errors, it is important to point out that legislation does not pass on its merits. Legislation passes when enough Congressmen/Senators think it is in their interests to support it.

It is difficult to support a bill that the public hates, and the public hates the Baucus bill: only 42% support the bill. Yet, widespread public opposition can usually be overcome in the legislative process by a motivated constituency. The Baucus bill, however, has no such constituency. Indeed, each of the attempts to create a constituency have failed:

(1) The Public. From the beginning, the Democrats promised to subsidize the cost of health care for nearly everyone in the country. They intended to undercut the public’s fears that this legislation would increase the cost of their health care. But they made two mistakes. First, while the Baucus bill promises subsidies to approximately 67% of Americans, individuals won’t see that money -- it will go directly to the insurers. That makes this a meaningless bribe because the public doesn’t know they will be getting it.

Secondly, the public does not believe this will help. They believe the subsidy (likely less than $200 a year) will not offset the increase in insurance cost (several thousand dollars a year). In fact, they don’t believe any part of the bill will be good for them.

If you examine the chart below, from Gallup, you will see that only 19% of the public believes this bill will improve the quality of the health care they receive, whereas 39% think it will make it worse. Only 22% think it will control the health care costs they pay, whereas 49% think it will make them worse. And only 20% think it will improve their coverage.

Even the bill’s supporters don’t think it will work:

Those numbers are guaranteed to scare every Democrat who faces reelection in the next cycle -- most of whom are already skittish.

(2) The Insurance Lobby. The Democrats blamed the insurance lobby for killing HillaryCare in 1992. So this time, they set out to make the insurance lobby an ally by promising insurers they would get to write policies for another 46 million Americans. This worked at first, until it became clear that the Democrats intended to create a public option or health care co-ops. This would be a disaster for most insurers.

Indeed, according to Republican Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.), who gave an impressive interview about this bill, this bill is likely to lead to the collapse of all but the largest insurers. He notes that the Baucus plan prevents insurers from using underwriting techniques to set rates (e.g. they can’t adjust policies to account for certain conditions). Because insurers need that flexibility to account for different expected costs, he reasons that most of the nation’s 1,300 insurers will be unable to issue profitable policies. Thus, they will be forced out of the business, leaving only a handful of large insurers to occupy the field.

Because of this potential disaster, the insurance industry has now abandoned their support and turned against the plan. Consequently, the Democrats are now threatening to attack the insurers with anti-trust laws, thereby guaranteeing the vehemence of the insurers’ opposition.

(3) Hospitals. The Democrats wanted to get hospitals on board (i) by increasing federal reimbursement for the “unreimbursed expenses” hospitals incur in treating the poor and illegal aliens and (ii) by cutting hospitals’ medical malpractice costs.

In 2008, hospitals provided $35 billion worth of uncompensated care (for the uninsured); 80% of this was reimbursed by the government. Most of this went to cover illegal aliens. But illegal aliens won’t be covered by Baucus, thus nothing will change for the hospitals. What’s worse, in July 2009, the White House announced (supposedly after reaching an agreement with hospitals) that it would be cutting the amount it reimburses hospitals under Medicare/Medicaid by $155 billion, to pay for ObamaCare. That’s a $190 billion loss from what hospitals had expected.

Moreover, while the GAO now confirms that medical malpractice reform could save $54 billion over 10 years, and while hospital groups including the American Hospital Association have been shopping malpractice reform plans, the Democrats have offered nothing more than a minor “demonstration project” to study the issue.

(4) Doctors. Democrats hoped to get doctors on board by promising increased reimbursements. But that has turned into a disaster. Here’s why. Medicare/Medicaid do not pay doctors enough to make it worth their time to treat those patients. Indeed, there are thousands of stories of doctors literally going broke trying to treat Medicare/Medicaid patients, and many now refuse to take such patients. In 2003, Congress tried to fix this by providing a temporary boost in the payment amounts until the system could be reworked. That boost runs out next year. If nothing is done, doctors (who already can’t afford to take such payments) will have their reimbursements cut by 21%, with a 40% cut following the year after. To prevent this happening, i.e. not fixing the problem but merely keeping the current reimbursement scheme, Congress must spend another $247 billion over the next 10 years.

However, if that amount is added to the bill, the budget promises made by the Democrats will collapse. So the Democratic leadership tried to sneak this change through as a separate bill. But that was voted down last week. It is not clear whether or not the Democrats will be willing to include these amounts in the current bill. Either choice could kill the bill.

(5) Old People. The Democrats proposed increasing the prescription drug benefit in Medicare to win over seniors. But they ended up scaring the heck out of seniors instead. And things are only going to get worse. Obama and Baucus have proposed cutting Medicare Advantage to save $10 billion. But this would cut the benefits of nine million seniors. Moreover, to pay for this bill, the Democrats are proposing an estimated $250 billion in Medicare/Medicaid cuts, which threatens the existence of both programs. Seniors remain very angry. . . and they vote.

(6) Big Business. The Democrats wooed employers, particularly big business and their union friends, by promising that the cost of employee health care would suddenly be covered by the government and that their smaller, more nimble competitors would be required to pay for benefits. None of that happens in the bill. At best, this bill will be neutral for employers.

(7) Illegal Aliens. This group was treated like a punching bag by the Democrats and gets nothing out of the bill. They are annoyed.

(8) The Hard Left. The hard left has been agitating for the Democrats to socialize medicine since forever. This bill doesn’t even come close to making them happy. In fact, this bill isn’t even a down payment on that. They are very upset.

(9) The Winners. There are only two groups that win under this legislation. The first group are people in the income range between 100% and 133% of the poverty level. They will now be eligible for Medicaid. This is approximately seven million people. The other group are the nation’s five million uninsurable persons. However, these groups lack financial muscle and already are loyal Democratic voters. Thus, their support is not comforting to the Democrats -- it’s like having your mom tell you that she likes your bill.

With no real constituency to support this bill, it will be difficult to pull together the votes needed to pass it.

2. The Cost

In addition to a lack of support among the rank and file, the bill is hemorrhaging support in Congress. The first cause of this falling support is the cost of the bill.

To get political cover, the Democrats have been working to convince everyone that the bill will cost less than one trillion dollars. Obama even set that limit in his daffy health care speech. But the Democrats now admit privately that the bill is understated by at least $150 billion. Moreover, the bill includes assumptions about cost cuts that won’t occur -- particularly the $247 billion in cuts to reimbursements to doctors under Medicare/Medicaid mentioned above. If these things are added back in, the bill will cost $1.268 trillion.

Going above the $1 trillion figure will lose the Snowe Rino and may lose many of the Blue Dogs.

More importantly, the bill was priced using the new (post-$247 billion cut) Medicare/Medicaid rates. Factoring those back out will cause the price tag to creep toward $2 trillion as the Republicans have been claiming. That would be a public relations nightmare, as it would have been cheaper just to buy everyone in the country private health care.

3. Disputes Over How To Pay For The Bill

In addition to the problem with the bill’s cost, there is a serious dispute among Democrats over how to pay for the bill. There is a currently a $200 billion shortfall, even in the fantasy numbers. To cover this, the House wants an income tax surcharge on the rich. The Senate, on the other hand, wants an excise tax on “Cadillac” benefits. And according to Paul Ryan, this could be the biggest problem for the bill because the surcharge “cannot” pass the Senate and the excise tax “cannot” pass the House.

Moreover, neither of these plans has strong support. In the House, the Democrats kept having to cut the rates to keep nervous Democrats in line. In the Senate, Baucus had to carve out exceptions to the excise tax for coal miners to get the support of Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-Deliverance), unions to get the support of Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-UAW) and John Kerry (D-Masshole), and for people in certain “hard hit states” to get the support of Sen. Chucky Schumer (D-Wall Street), Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Forrest Industry), and Harry Reid (D-SEIU), with others now demanding their own exemptions.

This could become the greatest challenge.

4. Disputes Over The Public Option

The most public dispute between the Democrats is whether or not (and to what extent) to include a public option. The Democrats furthest left have stated that they will not vote for a bill that does not include a public option. The Snowe Rino will not support a full public option, but will support a triggered public option. Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb) strongly opposes the public option. A few others have refused to commit.

This issue is significant because of the 100% (minus 1) Republican opposition, which means that Democrats will need Snowe and 59 of 60 Democratic Senators to pass this thing. It is unclear whether the current proposed solution of a public option that states could opt-out-of will satisfy enough Democrats to get that. I suspect it ultimately will, but it will be close.

5. Abortion

The Democrats also need 217 of the 256 Democrats in the House to support this bill. That’s where abortion comes in. Apparently, House Democrats have hit a wall on the issue of abortion. Rep. Bart Stupak (D.-Mich.) claims that he has organized a group of “about 40 likeminded Democrats” who will vote to kill the health-care bill over the issue of abortion. He says that the bill’s language that specifies that someone obtaining an abortion must use their own money, not money from federal subsidies, does not go far enough because it is impossible to segregate funds in that way. He wants to bar federal money from going to insurers who cover abortion. But other Democrats say they will not compromise any further on this issue. This standoff could kill this bill.


CONCLUSION

This bill faces widespread opposition in the public. There is no interest group left that supports this bill, most now angrily oppose the bill. The bill costs more than the magic number stupidly established by Obama, and the Democrats can’t agree on how to tax us to pay for it. All of this may make this bill impossible to pass. Add in the dispute over the public option and the abortion standoff, and this bill is rife for a surprise failure. The only question is, will the Democrats be more afraid of not passing this bill than they will be of passing it? Right now, I suspect they gut it deeply before passing it, i.e. they will pass a face saver version of the face saver bill.

Next time, why this bill can be repealed.

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