Paul Ryan for President 2012?

We interrupt this regularly scheduled column for something possibly much more interesting. According to the Weekly Standard and the vastly-overrated Karl Rove, there MAY be exciting news afoot. Paul Ryan is considering jumping into the field of GOP contenders to replace Obama in 2012.



According to the report:

“Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan is strongly considering a run for president. Ryan, who has been quietly meeting with political strategists to discuss a bid over the past three months, is on vacation in Colorado discussing a prospective run with his family. Ryan’s concerns about the effects of a presidential campaign – and perhaps a presidency – on his family have been his primary focus as he thinks through his political future.”

Wow! Ryan originally said he wouldn’t run three months ago, but according to a source close to Ryan, “He’s coming around.” Apparently, Ryan chose not to run when it looked like Mitch Daniels would run. When Daniels opted not to run, Ryan began to change his mind. Also, apparently, he (correctly) believes that none of the current candidates are talking seriously about economics.



So what hurdles does he face?



Well, he already has strong name recognition within the party, that’s vital. Moreover, he has a strong following among fiscal conservatives. Indeed, no one else in the race can claim anything similar to the reputation he has among fiscal conservatives, who would likely flock to him. Whether this would include Tea Party supporters I cannot say as Ryan does not strike me as having openly courted the Tea Party. But he shares their principles better than any of the other candidates.



Ryan also has strong connections to religious conservatives, who have yet to pick a candidate. Bachmann, Perry, and Pawlenty all made appeals to those voters, but so far they seem to be a group without a home.



Ryan gets a lot of love from conservative talking heads as well.



That’s a pretty strong base for a Republican Primary contender. His immediate competitors would be Perry and Bachmann. But both of those have flaws he doesn’t. Perry seems to trouble people for reasons they can’t articulate and Bachmann has serious organizational problems and keeps putting her foot in her mouth. Ryan isn’t as inflammatory as Bachmann or as accomplished a glad-hander as Perry, but he brings with him an earnestness that seems to work.



The biggest hurdle he faces, according to conventional wisdom, is that this is late in the game to start raising money. But is that really a concern? Probably not. Most of the candidates have been bringing in around four to five million dollars per quarter, with Romney bringing in around three times that. Perry too is prepared to bring in Romney-like numbers. But the vast majority of large donors have so far refused to commit themselves. Thus, there are literally hundreds of millions of dollars sitting on the sidelines waiting. Ryan could tap into that fairly easily given his support among both fiscal conservatives and the conservative intelligentsia. That would make him a match for Romney/Perry.



What about waiting this long? Well, Perry just jumped into the race this weekend and probably became the presumptive frontrunner or runner-up in the process. There’s no reason to think another week or two would be fatal to Ryan, as support clearly hasn’t solidified around any candidate or candidates at this point.



Also, let us not forget that Bill Clinton didn’t jump in for the 1992 race until October against a similarly uninteresting field. Indeed, the media dubbed them the Seven Dwarves at the time.



Just as interestingly, most conservative heavyweights have been waiting to give their endorsements. For example, Iowa heavyweight Rep. Steve King was expected to endorse either Pawlenty or Bachmann (with whom he is a personal friend). With Pawlenty gone, it seemed obvious he would endorse Bachmann. . . but he hasn’t. This is pure speculation, but he could be waiting for Ryan to make up his mind. Or he could just be waiting to see how things go. Indeed, according to numerous recent reports, very few heavyweights have agreed to endorse anyone at this point.



So between (1) the lack of a true frontrunner or frontrunners, (2) the lack of commitment by the money men, and (3) the lack of commitment by the heavyweight endorsers, the field essentially remains open at this point. Thus, being late should not hurt Ryan.



Finally, the million dollar question is this: given that Republicans are telling pollsters they want a candidate who can win more than anything else, how would Ryan do against Obama? Ryan crushes Obama. On the one hand, I think almost any Republican can beat Obama. But even beyond the public’s desire just to see an end to Obama’s reign of error, Ryan has shown himself to be more than a match in verbal debates with Obama and he has shown himself to be a talented, honest speaker of great skill, as well as a great thinker on economic issues. TOTUS is simply outclassed by the Wisconsin kid.



And while the Democrats think they have spotted a weakness because he proposed privatizing part of Medicare (an issue they used in an upstate New York House race), that is unlikely to be a problem. Ryan largely kept his nose clean during the brutal debt ceiling debate and Obama himself tossed entitlement reform on the table since that time.



What do you think? Good? Bad? Who’s Ryan?



I’ll do a contender profile on him next week.