Wisconsin Recall Primer (Ironic Version)

Tomorrow night is the Wisconsin recall. This is an interesting election, but purely for the sake of momentum. Ironically, while the Democrats and their union buddies forced this showdown, they are facing possible disaster if things go wrong, whereas the Republicans aren’t. Here’s what you need to know about Wisconsin and what it means for the rest of us.

Although the recall of Scott Walker has received the most media attention, there are actually two parts to the recall. The first is Scott Walker verses Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. Walker appears safe at this point, as he leads by 6-9% in recent polls and his lead has grown steadily -- though Bluffington Post claims “internal polls” show the race is neck and neck. . . yeah, and I can levitate when no one is looking.

The second involves four GOP senators and Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. Kleefisch is polling well against labor candidate and Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell. I suppose that’s good, except her job is meaningless. Of the four Senate seats, only one is considered a possibility to change hands. That is the seat of Sen. Van Wanggaard who is being challenged by Democrat John Lehman, who held the seat until 2010. If the Democrats do win that seat (or any of the other three) they will take control of the Senate.

So what does all this mean? That’s the laugher.

If Scott Walker were to lose, it would only mean an end to his ability to keep pushing Wisconsin to the right. It would not mean the repeal of anything he’s done because the Wisconsin House is dominated by Republicans and they can stop anything. So the reforms will go through either way. It might mean a loss of anti-union momentum nationally, but I doubt it because Wisconsin is a very pro-union state. Thus, a pro-union result should be expected and won’t have much meaning elsewhere, especially since it took everything the unions/Democrats/etc. could muster to barely win it.

But if Walker wins, this has HUGE meaning. First, it means that the voters of pro-union, liberal Wisconsin have endorsed a major shakeup in unionization laws. Under normal circumstances, this would be bad enough for unions, but the unions made this infinitely worse. They chose to make an example of Wisconsin by flexing all of their national might and, in the process, they put all of their credibility on the line. They sent in thousands of people and poured in millions of dollars. They called out all the celebrities, all the politicians, all the dirty lawsuits and false allegations, and all the death threats and union thuggery they could. In other words, they went all in. And yet, all their might couldn’t even win against “extreme” reforms in a pro-union state? The national message will be clear if Walker wins: the unions are finished, kill them off.

Democratic face saving is already beginning. Debbie Wasserman “Assbag” Schultz is trying to dismiss this recall as nothing more than “a dry run for November.” Uh huh, sure.

The unions and their leftist fellow travelers are trying to console themselves that they may win control of the Senate even if they can’t beat Walker. Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Mike Tate claims that would be enough, “taking back the Senate majority is a huge deal.” He claims this would allow them to “undo” what Walker has done. But that’s laughably false.

For one thing, the Senate is done for the year, so taking the Senate now is meaningless. Indeed, current Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald says that all the Democrats could achieve would be to get new parking spaces and bigger offices before November -- they can’t pass legislation. And here’s the interesting bit. Because of redistricting, which will take effect in November, it looks like the Republicans are likely to gain seats in any event. Thus, a Democrat win would likely last only until November.

So the best the Democrats can do is stop further reforms if they beat Walker or get new offices/parking spaces until November if they defeat any of the Senators. Aim high, donks!

But the price for trying this, i.e. what the Democrats/unions have risked to win this “valuable” prize, is that they have exposed union impotence. If unions can’t win in Wisconsin, where will they win? Moreover, they will have completely demoralized the Democrats before November. Indeed, admits Democratic consultant Heather Colburn:

“People have put so much of not just their time, but their heart and passion into Walker’s race, and he’s been so vilified and people have so organized around him that I think there’s going to be some broken spirits and hearts, even if we take back the Senate.”

Even Politico warns that a sweep by Republicans would be a disaster for the left:

“At the same time, a GOP sweep of the four races and a Walker win would deal a devastating blow to the left. It would hand a powerful mandate to Walker and his Republican allies in the state Legislature and give the GOP a burst of adrenaline heading into the November elections.”

A Republican sweep (or even just a Walker victory) also will put Wisconsin into play on the national map in terms of Obama’s reelection, especially if the Republicans get a clean sweep. And if Wisconsin swings into the “maybe” column for Romney, then expect things to really fall apart for Obama. In that event, forget everything I said about this race coming down to Florida and Ohio. . . if Wisconsin goes red, we’re looking at a landslide.

Good times!