Here’s the thing... there are 310,000,000 Americans. Of those, about 84,630,000 million are under 20, meaning they are likely unemployed because they are children or students. Another 39,680,000 are over the age of 65 and should likely be retired. Combining those two groups gives you 124,310,000 million people who aren’t expected to work. Suddenly, the claim that 92,594,000 million Americans aren’t working doesn’t sound so bad, does it? Indeed, these numbers tell us that at least 31,716,000 people who probably shouldn’t be working are working.
So is the Drudge number meaningful? Nope. It’s meaningless because it’s too broad in that it doesn’t factor out those who won’t be working under any circumstances (like a 5 year old) and then it implies something that is false from the overall magnitude of the number: “Lots of people aren’t working!” Well yeah, but they aren’t expected to work, so what’s the problem? In any stable modern economy, about one of three persons will not be working because they are too, young, too old, or something else. In our case, the figure is a little less at 30%. So that's not really bad. In fact, the only way to reduce this number would be to put children to work or to go all Logan’s Run on your elders, and even our fringers can't be expecting that. Well, ok, but no one else would suggest such a thing.
So don't worry about this silly 94 million number.
Now, that’s not to say that the job market is very good. It’s not. According to official statistics, 9.8 million people are unemployed, another 7.5 million are underemployed in “forced” part-time jobs, and 783,000 workers have simply given up. That’s 18 million Americans who could be more productive if the economy was better. That's 18 million people who could be buying homes, buying consumer goods, paying taxes, and not draining benefits. That’s the real number to worry about, not this fake 92 million number. That’s the number that needs to be fixed... and Obama has no plan to fix it.
Unrelated Aside: As an aside, the headlines this weekend screamed about the Baby Boomers become "the roommate generation." Good grief. Reading three sentences into the article finds that the number of cohabiters aged 50 or older is 130,000 households... about 260,000 people. How many people are over 50? Not totally sure, honestly, but there are almost 40 million over 65. So the number is probably around 50 million. In any event, 260,000 out of 40 million people works out to... carry the one... 0.65%. Would you say that the actions of 0.65% of a group make them representative of that group? Apparently, our knee-jerk journalistic community does. "The roommate generation" indeed.
15 comments:
Andrew,
Those numbers clearly mean that its time to repeal Child Labor laws. Put those 5-year olds back to work in factories!
Kit, That is the subtext I was hoping to send in my article. I think it's time we put our 5 year olds back to work in the mines! And they can room with all the Boomers who will be huddled together for warmth! :D
You're a smart man to figure that out!
Andrew,
Indeed. 5-year olds have been leeching off this Great American Country long enough!
HARUMPH!
Is it awful that the first thing I though of was THIS?
But seriously, what are the real numbers? As best as I have been able to assess from various politically slanted places, we are doing just fine and we are at almost full employment for those who can and are willing to be employed...or not. At best this just proves that both sides manipulate to prove their political points. I think a dangerous frustration grows with each new new "report" because we are all openly aware that we are just being manipulated.
Kit Harumph indeed! Those little moochers! :D
tryanmax, LOL! I haven't seen that in a while!
Bev, The dirty secret of the unemployment report is that there are no real numbers. They are estimates based on surveys of businesses combined with data on unemployment claims. So even if everyone was being completely honest, we still would have no idea if we are right or not.
That said, the unemployment numbers above are from the Bureau of Labor, who manipulate their numbers in favor of Obama... and yet, they still don't paint a pretty picture. So I would assume that things are at least that bad, if not worse, and that is not a good thing for our economy at the moment.
The 92 million number, by the way, comes from subtracting the number of jobs from the number of Americans. It's not an official statistic because it's meaningless except to the extent it has shock value, but that is the point to the article -- this "shocking" figure is totally snake oil.
As for the Boomer thing, I have no clue where they got that except maybe from an examination of Census data. I would consider that one a "pulled from my ass" number until proven otherwise.
Bev, I think the official line from the administration is that the recovery is going great, everyone who wants to work is working while everyone who wants to be an artist has full health coverage, and underemployment and the "low" minimum wage are the Republicans' fault, because politics.
tryanmax, That definitely sounds like the administration's PR position. Jerks.
Andrew and Tryanmax - I have no quarrel with putting a positive spin on the economy. That is what every administration should do. My problem is how the false recovery and PR machine of lies and distortions are being used as a cudgel to beat the opposition. If we are truly in a recovery (which we know we are not yet) we should all be proud that we pulled together and made it happen. Not be beating the other side that it was their fault because [fill in the blank usual epithet - racist/sexist/Bush]
Bev, I agree, but that's who this administration is. They are a nasty, partisan lot who view attack and smear as their only strategy.
And part of that is that the public has refused to embrace anything they want, so they feel alone and isolated. And part of it is that they have no record they can show. Obama's record is best described as "Yeah, I made things worse, but they're almost back to where they were before I started." And that doesn't really sell.
It looks like the fringe lost in Ohio, Indiana and North Carolina tonight by comfortable margins. The route continues.
ThAts why I like the percent of people over 16 participating in the labor market metric. It is currently at about 63.5%, the lowest since 1977. It's official. Worse than Carter.
Koshcat, That's a better metric except it doesn't exclude the growing senior population. In any event, the number is not good and the reason is the lack of good jobs, and that is on Obama.
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