The poll in question was conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation... inventors of the Kaiser Roll and the German Kaiser. They’ve been tracking Obamacare since it was just a gleam in Obama’s eye, and they’ve found that right now Obamacare is less popular than it’s ever been. Specifically, only 37% of Americans have a favorable view of the law and 53% have an unfavorable view. The other 10% responded “Dave’s not here, man.”
So what is going on here? This has the Democrats panicked because they assumed that once the law was passed, opposition would fade as people accepted that the law could not be repealed and they decided to explore the benefits. But that didn’t happen. Why not? Well, because there aren't many benefits. In fact, the law seems designed to help only a truly small, narrow sliver of America at the expense of millions more. Consequently, Obamacare's popularity is falling among every group -- conservatives, liberals, Democrats, the poor, the rich, the middle class, etc.
Here is why I think this is true:
● Conservatives remain unhappy for ideological reasons. They see Obamacare as a massive waste of government funds which simultaneously restricts freedom of choice. They realize that over time, this will destroy our healthcare system rather than improve it.Essentially, Obamacare includes something for everyone to hate, but nothing for anyone to love. Next will come the fines and the revelation of the unfairness of the fines, and people will be even more upset. Add increasing premiums and people aren’t ever going to like this law.
● Liberals are upset because they don’t see how Obamacare got them what they wanted. Their vision of Obamacare was a plan, where you flashed your ID card and you could get treatment anywhere on the government’s dime, paid for by the draining of “the rich.” Said differently, they wanted to unload all the responsibility for their own healthcare on Uncle Sam. Instead, they found themselves told that they must now pay money to insurance companies to get inferior care that few can afford. What’s more, they need to jump through bureaucratic hoops to make it happen.
● Populists are upset for the same reason: they see Obamacare as a restriction of freedom done in the name of boosting the bottom line of Big Government contributors from the health industry.
● Middle Classers are upset because they see the massive rise in healthcare costs that they are bearing through their premium increases as being the direct result of Obamacare -- though interestingly, only 28% of respondents said the law hurt them personally... 56% said it has no effect (15% said it helped them). I think what bothers the Middle Class more is that they see Obamacare as a way to soak them to provide more benefits to undeserving voters.
● The poor are upset, even though they essentially get free Obamacare, because what they are getting isn’t worth a crap. Despite being free, there are still costs (like co-pays) they need to cover. Finding doctors has proven to be impossible. Not to mention, they don’t do paperwork, yet they are finding now that they need to.
● Doctors are unhappy because they are getting raped to make the system work.
Thoughts?
18 comments:
I remember several conservatives themselves saying that once Obamacare passed it would be impossible to repeal like the NHS in the UK.
Huh.
Kit, In all honesty, I think "repealing it" won't work. That will generate opposition and create uncertainty and in the process swing people into its camp. The better approach is to "reform it" and then introduce and entirely different system under the guise of only making minor changes.
BTW, for anyone interested, the Tea Party just lost in Kansas... which should be their last big stronghold. At this point, there is no Tea Party to speak of.
There is also an interesting article at Politico. It's written by a Republican with obvious bias (so take with a grain of salt), but he points out that most of the Tea Party group leaders are getting paid around $500k each out of the money they are collecting. That's hardly consistent with the mission these guys claim to be pursuing.
I won't bother looking for it, but I'm sure the willful misinterpretation of the left is already out there in response to the Kaiser poll. You know the one I'm talking about: the one that adds the approval numbers to the "doesn't go far enough" numbers to manufacture a majority of support for Obamacare. Funny how their usual zero-sum logic evaporates to assume that if O-care went further, no one who supports it now would drop off.
But you're absolutely right about not repealing O-care. Politically, repeal and replace is a loser. I did look up the poll and Kaiser reports that majority of Americans want to see O-care "improved." A vague prescription, to say the least--it could mean about anything.
Unfortunately, the GOP can't live in that wiggle room. The poll finds 2/3 of Republicans want repeal--the inverse proportions of what independents and the general electorate express. And GOP base voters are notorious for wanting their rhetoric a certain way, meaning none of the code language that right-wingers supposedly love.
I think "repeal and replace" could work, if only the GOP had a viable idea about what to replace it with...
Here is an article from the NYT about one of the many problems with Obamacare insurance all of which were predicted.
Newly Insured "learning curve"
Kit, Repeal and replace might work and it might be necessary to get conservatives to be happy with what it being done, but it is needlessly provocative. The best changes are the ones no one knows about until much later. In this case, they should completely re-write it without taking credit for it until well after it has passed.
tryanmax, Unfortunately, the conservative base right now is diametrically opposed to the opinions of the public on every single issue. And their leaders aren't honest enough to tell them that 20% of the population cannot dictate to 80% of the population, nor will they get anything for trying except ignored minority status. Right now, we need smart, subtle people who don't grandstand, but who instead look to make needed corrections. Unfortunately, we don't have that, so I suspect that Obamacare will limp along for a while until something forces a change... and I don't know what that is.
As for the left, they are equally delusional. Like the conservative wing, they think that the other 80% secretly wants to follow their lead. That's BS, but they believe it.
Bev, Everything we predicted for problems will come to pass. The question is, will anyone be able to do anything about it? Of that, I'm not sure. Neither side even seems to be talking about how to fix the system anymore.
nice analysis, Andrew. The only thing I found perplexing is why "only" 28% of the middle class (however defined) claims to be hurt by O-Care. Even if it is young professionals opting to pay a penalty, that would constitute being "hurt." I think politically, The (R's) are better off saying we will work to CHANGE the bad parts of O-Care. If you do say repeal, you MUST have a replace in hand, and that gives liberals something to demonize and run against.
Andrew - One of the reasons neither side is talking about a fix is that the Dems expect the Repubs to "fix it". I keep hearing over and over from the lefties "Why do the Republicans spend so much time passing bills in the House to repeal and not any time on "fixing" what is wrong?" To which I respond "If the Dems knew all of these anticipated problems, why haven't they introduced any bills?" And there we sit in the middle.
Oh, and to respond to TennJ's perplexation of why so few feel hurt - The employer mandate is beginning to kick in and you will hear more leading up to November. Premiums are going up, doctors are not taking new patients and people are beginning to understand that "deductible" that is so high because those premiums are so low means you have to pay that high amount before the insurance company will pay a dime. And doctors are going to start demanding payment upfront like dentists if they haven't already.
Thanks Jed. I think the problem is that most people don't really realize how they've been hurt. They just know that their premiums have been going up, and they don't connect the dots.
Bev, I think that's right. I think the Democrats expect the Republicans to fix their mess, and I think they honestly can't propose any fixes because that flies in the face of what they have been promising their followers.
On the changes, I see evidence that doctors are starting to respond. That will be when everything changes.
Andrew,
One of the problems is that any time some Republican mentions keeping the good parts of Obamacare the fringe goes wild: "He wants to keep OBAMACARE! REPEAL EVERYTHING!"
Of course, my reply to such criticism would be this: "It's 3000 pages. There has to be something good in there. Nobody is that incompetent. Not even the Democrats."
Kit, I know what you're saying. Even if some Republican acknowledges the practical impossibility of repeal, even with its namesake in the White House, they get tarred in the same fashion.
Kit and tryanmax, That is the problem with the fringe. But as Kansas showed us again last night, they are finished. It's time to dismiss those people as cranks and return to being a responsible party with ideas on how to make the country better. That's the only future the GOP has... repeal their attempts to placate the fringe and replace them with other voters.
I can't speak for all the middle class, but here in Lewis County, WA., most voters are conservative/libertarian/independent leaning right and constitutionalists, with a smattering of classical liberals (which is what I consider myself to be).
However, reading the opinions in the local paper and talking to people I know, the vast majority see nothing good in Obamacare, and frankly, neither do I.
Yes, I do think the democrats are that incompetent.
The same opinion is held by all the right leaning people I know on the net, many who have lost their health insurance die to Obamacare.
Even a few democrat family members I know think Obamacare stinks.
At this point, I think the Obamacare should be repealed, put a stop to the cronyism, restore a free healthcare market which will encourage competition, and, while they are at, reform the VA system once and for all.
IOW's keep it simple, at least at first, and demonstrate they can fix the VA before doing anything else. If they can't do that then any "replacement" will be screwed up.
Perhaps not as bad as Ocare, but still not good.
Ensuring a free market in healthcare alone and cutting out the govt. middle man, and doing away with the cronyism alone will lower healthcare costs.
The GOP must also be honest and say there is no way to have a sustainable, "free" healthcare system without increased costs, red tape, and bureaucratic bungling that will prevent doctors from doing their job, as we have seen from Obamacare, the VA and Medicare.
This is a golden opportunity for the GOP, but until we get competent leaders I seriously doubt they can or will do more than repeal Ocare, if we take the Senate and If we win the White House.
Anyhow, if repealing Ocare is all they do at least that will be an improvement.
Ben, That's a great idea actually. If they reform the VA first, they can show people what a better system looks like and they can tell people, "Look what we did for veterans."
As for Obamacare, I don't think there is anything good about it either, except maybe the idea that you can't just be dropped when you get sick. But in all honesty, the best way to fix it is silently when no one is looking.
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