Monday, January 5, 2015

Predictions For 2015

Wow am I flying blind on this one, but here goes. I've thought about this long and hard and here are some predictions I have for the upcoming year. Please feel free to add your own and we'll revise at the end of the year! Huzzah! Accountability! ;-)

Obama Proves Impotent: Obama will push five or six “major” Executive Orders with the idea of circumventing the Congress to impose his “ideology” on the country. There will be a lot of noise, gnashing of teeth and the such surrounding these Orders, but they will ultimately prove to be impotent. He just doesn’t have the power or creativity to change enough.

By way of example, consider the immigration Order. Despite all the bravado, this Order can’t prevent deportations... it can only delay them. As a result, illegals have more to lose by coming forward to take advantage of the Order than they do staying hidden and hoping never to get caught.

Supreme Court v. Obamacare: This one is easy: the Supreme Court will uphold the Obamacare subsidies despite the law clearly not allowing them. This strikes me as obvious because Justice Roberts has clearly decided to protect Obamacare, probably because he’s very, very pro-Big Business, which means he will want to protect the insurance carriers who cut the dirty deal that is Obamacare.

The Pope Scores: Somewhere during the year, I expect to see two data points related to the Catholic Church. First, I think the Pope’s efforts to move beyond controversial issues and instead focus on the Church’s mission of providing comfort and general moral guidance will result in a flood of new converts. I’m not sure how many, but it will be a statistically relevant increase. Secondly, there will be a series of polls which will show that the public at large now sees the Church as reformed from its sex abuse scandals, and ready to move forward.

Big Trouble In Big China: China seems to be headed for trouble. For decades, we were told that China needs to maintain 9%+ growth to maintain domestic peace. It sounds like their GDP has fallen to around 6% and may be even lower than that – it’s not clear because China lies to make its data seem more impressive.

Moreover, China seems to have problems: (1) their labor costs are now too high, with other Asian countries like Bangladesh taking away their low-end work, (2) China failed to develop a strong high-end economy, and (3) China has failed to develop the kinds of good relationships with its neighbors that will allow it to develop stronger markets. Further, China has been so aggressive with its neighbors that it seems to have caused an arms race it cannot afford and cannot win, and which risks Japan militarizing and drawing even closer to the US.

Economic Disconnect Continues: I think the economic disconnect will continue. Big Business will make record profits. The stock market will slump in January/Feb, but then soar for the year... maybe as much as 20%. Retail investors (you and I) will miss the rally. Middle class incomes will continue to fall. Middle class jobs will continue to vanish... the villain this time is robotics, not China.

Putting The Band Back Together: Putin will finish rebuilding the Soviet Union this year... at least as far as he will ever get it (he won’t get the Baltics back and he will have no influence over Eastern Europe). Sadly for him, the countries he is managing to pull back in are craphole countries that will drain his shrinking resources.

Sony II: The Sony hacker scandal has legs for a number of reasons, including the likely eventual resignation of a couple of their officers, and a possible (though unlikely) sale of the studio. The bigger issue related to Sony, however, is that hackers may see the Sony incident as a new way to damage companies. Hence, look for more hackers to stop trying to disrupt systems and instead trying to steal e-mails and embarrassing documents to post online.

Grievance Industries Continues to Fade: I think we’ve hit a tipping point where the public is done with the feminism, racism, etc. grievance industry. By and large, this means death by neglect. In 2015, more evidence of this will be seen by the inability of the grievance lobby to rally the public to whatever series of incidents arise in 2015 (rape allegations, police shootings).

Cosby: Wow. I just don’t know how this will play out... with one exception: anyone who tries to jump into this issue and use it politically will find themselves as the escape hatch for the media and will be destroyed. Avoid this like the plague folks.

The Gay Surprise: For some time now, I’ve been sure that the Supreme Court will let gay marriage move ahead at its own pace and will only step in to grant gay marriage nationwide after most states are onboard. The more I think about it, however, the more I suspect that the Supreme Court may be ready to bust out a surprise here. With polls showing an increasingly large majority of the public favoring gay rights, with the younger generations being overwhelmingly in favor, with even many GOP politicians now supporting the issue, and with the public increasingly treating the issue as non-controversial and resolved, I suspect that the Supreme Court may pull the trigger this year and “suggest” that gay marriage will be found to be a Constitutional right, with the intent being to get the appellate courts on the same page so the Supremes never need speak definitively on the issue.

No NFL In LA: The NFL has been using the bluff of moving a team to LA to extort stadiums out of cities that already have teams. People are catching onto this, so the NFL has made a huge push lately to convince people that 2015 really will be the year that an NFL team moves to LA... honest... swear to God... IT WILL HAPPEN PEOPLE!! The San Diego Chargers are considered most likely. However, I think the LA bluff is just too valuable to the existing 32 teams to give it up, and the NFL will not let anyone move to LA.

European Irrelevance Affirmed (again): Once again, I expect nothing consequential to come out of Europe this year.

Lurching Left: For about a decade, South America has been moving leftward. Not coincidentally, their economies have begun to fade and sputter as a result. Look for them to continue to drift left, however, because their poor have learned how to vote themselves goodies and their poor way outnumber their middle classes.

In terms of countries of interest, watch the following: (1) Cuba post-liberalization with the US – look for a massive economic surge and the Americanization of the island, (2) Venezuela is tottering on collapse, but refuses to change...should make for an interesting year, and (3) Argentina is in deep kaka and Madame Kirchner seems to think that provoking a war may be her best way out of her mess. Her preferred target has been Britain, but I suspect that anyone will do in a pinch, and 2015 could provide that pinch.

Wasted Opportunity: I suspect the GOP will waste the opportunity they’ve been given. I fear we will get (1) a series of meaningless bills that sound extreme as they are meant to please the fringe, but which the party knows Obama will veto. These won’t win over the unwinnable fringe, will anger the moderates, and will show the public that the GOP doesn’t understand the new political reality where the public sees meaningless show votes as sleazy. (2) We will get a couple of needless compromises that do nothing to advance genuine reforms conservatives will like – basically, the GOP will compromise on the wrong things.

Defining Failure As Victory: Obamacare will continue to fall. It was supposed to cover 43 million people. Then we were told nine million would sign up the first year. Eight million did, but only six million paid their bills, yet we were told this was a huge victory for Obamacare. In year two, we were told to expect around 15 million initially. This was brought down to nine million total. Despite automatic signups, it looks like only eight million will be signed up, yet we will be told again that this is a huge victory.

War?: I don’t see any new wars on the horizon this year. If anything, look for something in North-East Africa, in the neighborhood of Sudan.

Bad Movies: 2014 was a banner year for pathetic films. I suspect 2015 will be a mirror image.

So what did I miss?

33 comments:

Tennessee Jed said...

Oregon wins the national championship over Ohio State. As for Roberts and the Supreme Court, I have no idea. I'd like to think that the court isn't that corrupt, but who knows. I had heard "the buzz" that liberals like Ginsberg had convinced Roberts if he ruled against Obamacare, the court would lose all respect and be branded as hopelessly partisan. Don't know if that is true or not. But if so, Roberts could decide he gave them their chance, Obamacare is not popular, and since he ruled in favor of it, he can't be accused of being strictly partisan. Now if Obama convince Roberts that if he voted against Obamacare, his family would mysteriously die from a rare form of food poisoning ..... I predict Taylor Swift will continue to kow tow to her liberal masters. I saw her facebook youtube post that everybody was lauding, and thought, it was only great if she hadn't had the whole thing filmed. I mean come on .....

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, Taylor Swift is a joke. Despite being from a rich family, she's white trash to the core -- trashing ex-boyfriends in all her songs and even having to sing that she's not as stupid as everyone says she is (a sure sign that she is indeed that stupid), and now she wants to be a liberal champion. Go away, chickie.

We'll see about Roberts. Everything I've seen from him is basically a pro-big business result.

I hope Oregon wins, though I care more about the NFL. In that, I'm cheering for Denver, but generally am in the anybody but Seattle or New England camp.

Kit said...

I liked Taylor Swift's 2010 album. The rest were, meh. I did not see the New Year's video.
This Chuck & Beans comic strip more or less sums up my (desired) attitude towards celebrities and stories about them. And though I am not as ignorant about pop culture as Beans is, I do understand his sentiment.
LINK

Anyway,

I am holding out some hope for the O-Care but I'm expecting Roberts will uphold it. I also expect a SCOTUS ruling in favor of gay marriage. Let it come, just rip it off like a band-aid.

I agree about Obama, he is in a lame-duck spiral.

Avengers: Age of Ultron will bring in da bucks.

The new season of Downton Abbey will have many viewers going for the kleenex.

Bob said...

Andrew.....Another political prediction:

- Many of the more influential, behind the scenes, "advisors" to Pres. A. E. Neumann, will quietly leave the administration, all with a wink and nod (or even a Presidential 'memo') that promises them amnesty, in any event, should they not talk about, or discuss with any media, their tenure and decision-making process while in the WH. Some won't be able to help themselves and there will be more Gruber-like stories coming out that show how the Obama administration (V. Jarrett; B. Smith; H. Clinton) totally fabricated events and promised countries things that go against US interests, in the hope that there would be "world peace."

The media, and hence the US public, will never "get it" that these folks desire an America that does not lead, and is as corrupt and racist a country that there ever was.

Some will break, for their own ego and $$, and we will begin to see that our worst fears about these proto-Marxists are true.

And, still no word from Dear Leader on the ongoing "protests" against the "police." I believe this is what they have wanted all along....community "activism" against the power structure.

Anthony said...

I think on a state level the Republicans will continue to cover themselves in glory, but at a national level they will kind of tread water because the Democrats still have the presidency and there are a lot of divisions in the Republican Party (same as for the Democrats).

I think the Democrats are badly screwed. The Republicans have done extremely well (practically and politically) at a state level and at a national level Democrats (not named Obama obviously) lack not only power, but ideas and personalities which could either sell the current ideas or come up with new ones.

I have nothing to base this on, but I think to the secret relief of Democrats and the secret disappointment of Republicans, the Supreme Court will gut Obamacare.

Obama will be impotent in 2015, but I suspect he will be impotent in ways that benefit Democrats. Popular ideas which don't got anywhere (easy especially for a talker like Obama) rather than implementing those ideas (tough, especially for Obama, who has no interest in management) will benefit the Dems more than implementing those ideas would.

I don't see the grievance industry going anywhere. Right now it has become extremely fringe, but we'll see how it goes the next time we get a police killing that could raise eyebrows among reasonable people (i.e., not 'Thug shot at cop and missed, cop shot back and hit').

Even if it rekindles, I doubt it will be a political force. Even when they get lots of attention, there is no evidence such incidents drive anyone to the ballot box.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/06/politics/missouri-elections-ferguson-voter-turnout/index.html

4 in 10 Ferguson voters cast ballots; turnout still trails county, 2010 totals

As someone who lives in the DC metro area, it pains me to say this, but I will go out on a limb and say that the Redskins will continue to suck. Since the franchise is so immensely profitable, they don't really have much incentive to change what (from a win/loss perspective) clearly isn't working.

The Cosby thing is bizarre. The only certainty is that he is toast. Even if everything he says is true, him being merely a serial philanderer rather than a serial rapist shatters his public image as a morally upstanding, family friendly comedian. He's no longer in a position to tell anyone to pull their pants up.

ScottDS said...

I echo Anthony's sentiments: the grievance industry isn't going anywhere anytime soon. (Then again, I'm a white male so what do I know?)

As for movies, we're getting sequels to The Avengers, Jurassic Park, Star Wars, Mission: Impossible, Pitch Perfect, Paul Blart: Mall Cop (!), Taken, and at least a half a dozen more, along with a new James Bond, and the last Hunger Games. We're also getting new movies from Brad Bird and Quentin Tarantino.

One podcast I listen to refers to Taylor Swift as "Tadolf Switler." :-)

BevfromNYC said...

My Predictions (a/k/a "flights of fancy"):
1. John Boehner will remain Speaker of the House because he had done a good job and the two others challenging him are way too far right. (This is an actual predictions.)

2. After an extended vacation and much soul searching, President Obama will have learned the lessons of the 2014 Midterm elections and will finally be able to work with Congress to pass legislation that benefits ALL citizens. And he will state publicly how he regrets not trying that sooner...

2. NYC - Mayor Bill Diblasio will learn from recent experience, yet he will still blame Bill Bratton and continue to insist that it was the racist cops. Subsequently he will ask Bratton to resign and appoint Al Sharpton as Police Commissioner....[you think this couldn't happen??]

3. Not only do I think they will not go away, I predict that 2015 will be The Year of Grievance Whiners. Everyone who has grievance will air it publicly until we get so tired of the whining that 350 million people will walk outside their homes throughout the land and shout "STFU already". It will be so loud that it cause a polar shift.. It will be a Guinness World Record that will go down in history...

4. The Cowboys will win the Super Bowl.

5. And lastly, someone will do something shocking and dark secrets will be revealed on Downton Abbey...

Happy New Year everyone!

Kit said...

Bev,

A Downton Abbey prediction: Life will continue to suck for Lady Edith, as well as John and Anna Bates. I think Mr. Bates' ex-wife put some kind of curse on the two.

See last night's episode?

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, I think the big money is supposed to come from the return of Star Wars this year. That will overshadow the otherwise falling box office.

I had been thinking the Supreme Court would wait on gay marriage, but it strikes me that the issue has become such a back-page issue these days that the Supremes may finally act and be done with it.

Jeb Bush, btw, just called it a local issue today. That will outrage the Santorum wing, but I doubt it will affect his polling with the GOP at large.

AndrewPrice said...

Bob, Obama's administration has been a failure. When failures end, people tend to want to make a lot of noise to separate themselves from that failure. I suspect we will be flooded with books from his staff which outline how they fought the brave fight, but were stymied by _____(insert villain here). Should be fun to watch as they tear each other apart.

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, I don't know what the problem is with the Redskins. They just never seem to be able to get it together.

I agree about the Democrats and Republicans and particularly about Obama benefiting from being able to make a lot of noise without any responsibility. That's always worked with the left in the past.

I agree with you on the grievance industry in large part. I think they won't go away, but they are fringe and that is where they will stay barring something truly amazingly bad.

I agree about Cosby. He's done. But the rape allegations strike me as too bizarre to have any effect beyond Cosby himself, i.e. it won't lead to any sort of national debate unless some idiot politician jumps in to add their two cents.

AndrewPrice said...

Scott, She's just a mindless dipsh*t with bad values. I wouldn't say she's Hitler.

In terms of the movies you are listing, most will make good money, but I doubt any will be worthwhile. We are in the worst movie period of my life, that's for sure.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, All your predictions are highly likely... except No. 4. ;-)

I wouldn't be surprised to see Bratton fired.

I also think Boehner will easily keep his job.

BevfromNYC said...

Kit - Uh, duh, of course I watched last night! Right after I watched the Cowboys beat the Lions on their way to the Super Bowl that the Broncos will not win >8-B to Andrew

Koshcat said...

I have a love-hate with predictions. They are fun but most of the time wrong. Here are my a**h*** predictions:

The stock market will go up and go down.
Some big and completely unexpected (a black swan even) will happen.
A celebrity will do something incredibly stupid and people will talk about it incessantly.
Obama will give an overlong, boring speech that no one except Pelosi will listen to
Talk radio will continue to insist that 2/3 of the people actually would agree with them on everything but this is suppressed by the RINOs, dems, liberal media, Jews, and Illuminati.
The Superbowl half-time show will be lame.
The Star Wars sequel will make $1 Trillion but half the population will go blind from the lens flare.
The price of oil and gas will start to rise again followed by economic morons who will insist that it is due to price fixing by big oil companies.
The "religion of peace" will continue to ignore Islamic terrorists killing their own people.
After the Cosby issue the term "pudding pops" will have a new meaning.
My 10 year old daughter will continue to insist that I am a dinosaur for not allowing her to have a phone when all the other students in her class has one.

BevfromNYC said...

Koshcat - I agree 99.99% except seriously "the Illuminati"?? That's so 2014...or is that 1420...I forget.

Oh, by the way -

My 10 year old daughter will continue to insist that I am a dinosaur for not allowing her to have a phone when all the other students in her class has one.

The good news about this is that every other kid in her class is saying the exact same to their parents. However the bad news is that you will be a "dinosaur" for a while. Then she will realizes that your are pretty cool. Give it time. It will happen when you least expect it.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, I do like the Cowboys. I just can't see it happening. In any event, no Patriots, no Seahawks!

AndrewPrice said...

Koshcat, LOL! It's like you're a genuine psychic! Any guesses on lottery numbers? ;-)

Koshcat said...

Unfortunately, I am a dinosaur because it appears every kid in her class has a cell phone some even with smart phones. However, I don't see why a 5th grader needs a phone of her/his own. She is welcome to use the home phone to call her friends at any time, she sees her friends all day and we pick her up after school.

Next year in middle school it might be helpful due to issues regarding picking her up after school. Then WE can communicate with her.

Wait until she finds out that the phone probably won't have a camera...

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, We gave phones to ours and found them to be better than tranquilizer darts in terms of keeping the kids quiet in the car.

AndrewPrice said...

Koshcat, That's why I got them both phones, so I could communicate with them as needed. I want to be able to coordinate school pickups and to know where they are if they are outside playing.

BevfromNYC said...

Actually Koshcat - they do have phones specifically for kids that parents can control - LINK Not that I think kids too young should have phones, but just in case...

Hey Koshcat Look over there <------->>>>>>
{{{Okay, Koshcat's daughter, I've buttered him up, now go in there and makes us proud! If you have one tear rolling down your cheek and say "Daddy, I sure do love you" . I guarantee results.}}}

Kit said...

First, I am 25 and the cell phones I use are just basic $60-70 phones. I use them to call, tell time, and wake me up in the morning. And occasionally as a calculator.

Once in a while I text. It has no camera.

Kit said...

Bev,

Any thoughts on last night's episode?

Koshcat said...

I can definitely see the use of a phone. My brother-in-law could track his daughter up until she snuck out without it. He gently threatened the boy with evisceration and he never came back. I'm leaning a lot from his experiences.

Oh Bev, she has tried. Her problem is she has two parents who are physicians but quite frugal. We both grew up low middle class. The "I gotta have it because everyone else does" just doesn't fly in our house. Plus we have seen all the terrible things that have happened to kids (autoaccidents, molestation, STDs, drugs). Can't wait to roll out the STD and birthing pictures.

Koshcat said...

I didn't go out on a limb for real predictions. Here are some of my thoughts:

Seahawks win their second Superbowl

NFL team will go to LA. It will be either Raider or Chargers.

Where I suspect the Supreme Court will come in on gay marriage is with reciprocation. That is will state A have to accept marriage from state B.

I think Roberts has had it with Obamacare and will strike down this narrow provision.

Boehner will win re-election narrowly. He will then get a tan and tell everyone how reasonable Obama is. The house will start passing stupid shit making the GOP senators question their sanity.

The only thing keeping China out of a recession right now is low energy costs. So which is worse: low cost of oil leading to collapse of Iran, Venezuela and Russian economy or high oil cost leading to recession in China?

Parts of Europe will start to Frac which will complete the Russian collapse.

Argentina will try to start another war as a way to deflect how bad their economy is. GB will kick their ass again and then Argentina will default on the loan from Russia for weapons. They will then come out and blame the US, Jews and the Illuminati.

Pictures of Putin, Hillary and Obama in a ménage a trios will surface but only be published by the Enquirer. News agencies will deny their authenticity and accuse anyone of even speaking about it as being racist, sexist, fascist pigs. We will find out later that all the news agencies knew about the pictures in 2012 but felt they needed more proof. During this uproar, MSNBC will have 90 hours of constant coverage of a squirrel hit by Scott Walker's car or at least a car that looked like Governor's although it was driven by a 4'8" Chinese woman and it took place in Oregon.

Ohio State will win the championship because Urban Myer's contract with Satan is still valid.

Anonymous said...

To call Taylor Swift an idiot is to defame idiots. I was watching the last ten minutes of the new years eve celebration on whatever network she was on. She had dressed way to lightly for the weather and the cohost,I forget his name, started to take off his coat. Taylor said "This is so inappropriate" and then when he started to put his coat around her she said "OH! So that's what you were doing!" DUH!
As far as predictions go,let's see;
In no particular order:
Peter Edward Rose will take his rightful place in the pantheon of heroes in Cooperstown. (I predict this every year. One year I'll hit it.)
The mighty Pittsburgh Steelers will win the Superbowl. (See my comment on Pete)
Barack Hussein Obama will leave Michelle and marry John Boehner.
Michelle will become a wrestler.
Iran will develop nuclear weapons and destroy our eastern seaboard while Barack sits with his thumb up his ass.
GypsyTyger

Rustbelt said...

Some are funny, some are serious. We'll start with serious. (The rest you can judge.)

-College Playoff: Ohio State will upset Oregon for the second time in 5 years, winning both the national championship and another decade of Sith-level hate and wrath from the elitist sorts media.
(Koshcat, you, much to my chagrin, are correct that Satan resides in and does business in the Big Ten. His preferred colors, however, are blue and maize.)

-Super Bowl: Don't care. Steelers lost. But as long as someone gets in the Ravens' way and the Patriots- with with University of Hell graduate QB Tom Brady- lose, I'm OK with it.
(Also, if Dallas loses again, does that mean we'll have to watch Staubach get on TV to groan about it? -again?)

-Supreme Court: Like most people, I have no idea how the supremes will vote on gay marriage or Obamacare. (Does anyone?) While I'm not sure how the latter will turn out, I won't be surprised if the former issue gets punted back to the states again. The previous hearings made me think the judges are worried that ruling against referendums' outcomes would set a dangerous precedent that they'll be seeing again for years to come. I think they'll (again) search for a technicality to get out of it.

Draft: Marcus Mariota gets drafted high and looks to have great promise during his first season. Jameis Winston gets drafted and makes Johnny Manziel's rookie season look like the second coming of Dan Marino by comparison.

NFL Expansion: Last week, Roger closed the books on any expansion before the 2015 season. More talk ensues. More fighting erupts between owners and politicians in Oakland, San Diego, and St. Louis, thus bringing back football writers' less-than-fond memories of similar incidents in Baltimore and Cleveland. (Whether or not Mayflower Trucking will also be involved remains undetermined.)

Hockey's Holy Grail: Despite the success of the "holy flannel sweaters" over the last month, Canada goes another year without winning the Stanley Cup. (The resulting earthquake you'll feel in June will be the result of Maurice Richard, Bob Vezina, and Conn Smythe once again rolling over in their graves.)

(continued...)

Rustbelt said...

(Part 2)

-Movies: I bet I go to more Rifftrax Live events this year than actual films for the second year in a row. Anybody with me?

-Baseball: The Pirates FINALLY top the Cardinals to win the NL Central Division.
Meanwhile, Cubs fans are left wondering what happened after their new high-priced team fell into the basement again. Then they remember this team is the Cubs and they go back to their normal lives. (They also wisely contemplate switching their allegiance to the White Sox...a.k.a. the Chicago baseball team that has actually won a World Series in their lifetimes.)

El Presidente: After being slipped some sodium pentathol in his high-priced wine at the White House Correspondents' Dinner by a disgruntled Secret Service agent (still smarting at being thrown under the bus a few years ago), Obama is caught on the mic mumbling, "why don't any of these rubes like me any more?" Host [insert Obama sycophant], instead of using the opportunity to make a joke for the ages, painfully tries to change the subject.

Downton Abby: While I have never watched a single episode of the show (for fearing of inadvertently- and permanently- picking up the accent, among other reasons), my mother will always be talking to me about it.

Rustbelt: (watching hockey game) That coach is in trouble.
Rustbelt's Mom: Not as much trouble as Mr. Bates, I'll bet!
Rustbelt: Mr. Bates? Norman?
Rustbelt's Mom: Not that Mr. Bates.

Not In Your Lifetime: Andrew finally agrees with Rustbelt that Timothy Dalton was a better James Bond than Pierce Brosnan.

Star Wars: Mr. Plinkett takes one look at the new be-masked Sith Lord and says, "What's wrong with your faaaaaaaaace?????"

Koshcat said...

I had one prediction wrong after listening to sports news update driving home. I am now about 65% sure it will be the Rams who move back to LA. This was after hearing Kroenke is building the stadium in LA. His group owns the Rams ( as well as the Avs and Nuggets).

Kit said...

Some predictions for the 2015 general election:
—Labour will have the largest share of seats but it will still be a hung parliament. The question is will the Lib-Dems have enough seats to form a coalition government or will they be forced to govern as a minority government and will Labour form a coalition w/ the SNPs.
—UKIP will keep their current seat in Clacton. They might pick up a second.
—William Hague or Michael Gove will be come the Leader of the Tory Party and therefore Leader of the Opposition.

the US
—Boehner will survive the uprising.

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