The wait is over. The New York Primary is today and, hopefully, the endless Bernie Sanders/Hillary Clinton television ads will end for awhile. New York's primary is a proportional, closed primary which means the delegates will be divided...well, proportionatly. However, those of us who are not registered in any established party will not be able to vote.
The closed primary issue has become a real problem in the last few weeks for me. New York has some of the most stringent voter registration laws in the country. In order to vote in this primary, new voters only had to register by March 25. However to change party affiliation or, in my case to declare a party, currently registered voters would have to have made that change or declare by October 6, 2015. All I can say is that if this were Mississippi or Alabama, the DOJ would have looked into this years ago.
Ironically, two of Trump's children have found themselves in the same predicament as me - unable to vote in the most important primary in my lifetime. I expect the closed primary issue and other voter registration laws in New York to become a big issue after this primary. Fortunately, the outcome will be proportional, so no one will take all of the delegates.
Here is where we are according to the latest polls:
New York Republican Primary
New York - 95 (P) delegates
Prediction:
Trump: 54%
Cruz: 25%
Kasich: 20% (Really??)
Delegate Count as of April 18:
Trump: 755
Cruz: 545
Rubio: 171
Kasich: 143
Uncom: 9
Carson: 8
Bush: 4
*1237 to clinch nomination
New York Democratic Primary
New York - 291 (P)
Prediction:
Clinton: 56%
Sanders: 41%
Delegate Count as of April 18:
Clinton: 1776 (Del/Super Del combined)
Sanders: 1118 (Del/Super Del combined)
*2383 to clinch nomination
On a related topic, issues within the Republican party are brewing with the primaries. Of course, Trump's camp seem to be caught completely unaware that there are some states who for decades have elected their delegates through the caucus process. And amazingly, Cruz has taken these delegates in the last five caucuses. Trump has stated openly that if he has the most votes regardless of the 1237 minimum, he should get the nomination or else there may just be riots at the Columbus convention.
Question: Do you think the party is obligated to nominate the candidate that comes the closest to 1237 or must the candidate have to have won the minimum of 1237 delegates to claim the nomination?
I will keep you posted on our results in New York. But while we wait breathlessly for the results, please feel free to vent.
Oh, by the way, I watched a very interesting movie this weekend - "Look Who's Back". It's German satire that came out in 2015 and really worth the watch especially in this election cycle. It is available on Netflix and really worth it. However it will scare the bejeezus out of you. LINK to Trailer
The closed primary issue has become a real problem in the last few weeks for me. New York has some of the most stringent voter registration laws in the country. In order to vote in this primary, new voters only had to register by March 25. However to change party affiliation or, in my case to declare a party, currently registered voters would have to have made that change or declare by October 6, 2015. All I can say is that if this were Mississippi or Alabama, the DOJ would have looked into this years ago.
Ironically, two of Trump's children have found themselves in the same predicament as me - unable to vote in the most important primary in my lifetime. I expect the closed primary issue and other voter registration laws in New York to become a big issue after this primary. Fortunately, the outcome will be proportional, so no one will take all of the delegates.
Here is where we are according to the latest polls:
New York Republican Primary
New York - 95 (P) delegates
Prediction:
Trump: 54%
Cruz: 25%
Kasich: 20% (Really??)
Delegate Count as of April 18:
Trump: 755
Cruz: 545
Rubio: 171
Kasich: 143
Uncom: 9
Carson: 8
Bush: 4
*1237 to clinch nomination
New York Democratic Primary
New York - 291 (P)
Prediction:
Clinton: 56%
Sanders: 41%
Delegate Count as of April 18:
Clinton: 1776 (Del/Super Del combined)
Sanders: 1118 (Del/Super Del combined)
*2383 to clinch nomination
On a related topic, issues within the Republican party are brewing with the primaries. Of course, Trump's camp seem to be caught completely unaware that there are some states who for decades have elected their delegates through the caucus process. And amazingly, Cruz has taken these delegates in the last five caucuses. Trump has stated openly that if he has the most votes regardless of the 1237 minimum, he should get the nomination or else there may just be riots at the Columbus convention.
Question: Do you think the party is obligated to nominate the candidate that comes the closest to 1237 or must the candidate have to have won the minimum of 1237 delegates to claim the nomination?
I will keep you posted on our results in New York. But while we wait breathlessly for the results, please feel free to vent.
Oh, by the way, I watched a very interesting movie this weekend - "Look Who's Back". It's German satire that came out in 2015 and really worth the watch especially in this election cycle. It is available on Netflix and really worth it. However it will scare the bejeezus out of you. LINK to Trailer
11 comments:
Sounds like Trump is hiring some people who know what a caucus is. His old staff will have more free time to provide back-up to the Secret Service.
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/trump-campaign-leadership-shake-up/2016/04/18/id/724571/
Donald Trump's campaign is undergoing a leadership change that has led to one resignation and caused concern among some staff, Politico reports.
The campaign's newest additions, Paul Manafort and Rick Wiley, were tapped at a Saturday meeting at Trump Tower to head up operations in upcoming states and were given a budget of $20 million.
The party shouldn't let Trump's whims/threats dictate the nomination process.
It's been picked apart ad nauseum on talk radio that Trump loves the rules and playing the game so long as he's winning, but as soon as he meets a little competition, he stamps his feet and threatens to take his ball home. Trump knew the rules going in, he should be beholden to them, just like everyone else.
On the closed primary system, while I agree that the same system in Alabama would've been investigated by 2/3 of the alphabet agencies, I have no problem with it. The political parties are membership organizations with some of the lowest entry standards imaginable. They don't even have a membership fee!
Part of their recruitment gimmick is that they pretend to be the public. To that end they'll even let segments of the competition take part in their affairs where it doesn't much matter. But they are not "the public" any more than Coke or Pepsi. They have no obligation to let non-members participate and, frankly, I find that to be perfectly sensible.
I'm not predicting the end of the GOP after this election cycle is finished, but I do predict that a viable third and possibly fourth (on the Dem and Rep sides) will end up forming to challenge the mainstream organizations. Maybe it's just me, but the GOP's credibility as a party isn't all that sterling.
Tryanmax - I get the closed primary system is a party thing. However, I take exception to the fact that I can newly register less than one month (and in some cases at the polling place today), yet I have to change or declare my party affiliation more than 6 months in advance. If this is a party issue then the party system needs to fix it.
But then most of the party-faithful elected officials will be in jail by November here in NY, so I'm guessing it will have to change.
Bev -
In slightly-related NY news, I don't suppose you know anyone who needs a roommate? I'm trying to plan my escape from my parents' house but it's also tough moving without a job lined up. (I assume landlords just love hearing that.) I'd prefer not to have to stay at my aunt and uncle's place again.
And thanks for liking my tweets, by the way. :-)
Scott - I don't know anyone personally who is looking, but I am always getting notices on the Facebook UT alumni association page for youngsters such as yourself looking for new roommates and temporary sublets. I wil pass them along to you. Here is a link to TimeOut magazine article about various and sundry Roomate finding services too. LINK Just don't go looking on Craig's List please.
I can attest that I had the same situation (no job/no place to live) when I first moved here. Landlords and roomates don't like the "no job" and employers don't like "no place to live". I did have a leg up with being a union member, so I went the union playroom where they posted other union members who needed roommates. I met some really weird people in really weird living situations, but take heart - once you get on the roommate loop, you will find lots of great living situations.
I LOVE your posters!
Scott, You should move in with de Blasio. :)
Tonight's primary will be interesting. This should be the beginning of a run for Trump. The question will be if he gets enough delegates to win the race.
I've noticed that he's already shifting his campaign style and structure a lot to come across as more rational and moderate.
On the other side, I'm cheering for Bernie. I don't see how Bernie can win, though Hillary can.
Hillary has secured the black vote by announcing she carries around hot sauce everywhere. I think there is an old white people love mayo, black love hot sauce meme floating around.
This and the CPT joke seem like a deliberate move by Hillary's handlers to humanize her with humor. I think the jokes are harmless but I doubt they can or will shake the impression that Hillary is so fixated on winning she would perform a human sacrifice if necessary.
Oddly, this claim is true.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/12/21/hillary_clinton_jalape_o_and_hot_sauce_fiend.html
Bev -
Thanks! My e-mail address remains the same.
Of course, NY is only one option - I can literally go anywhere, but I'm trying to confine myself to the eastern half of the country, PLUS I have a friend whose parents just sold their house so she'd like to tag along, which creates... complications.
Ugh...! :-)
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