Some political tidbits.
● San Francisco is banning the use of facial recognition software by the state. They are worried that it could discriminate because it's more likely to get minority faces wrong than white faces. So they aren't banning it because it's hyper-intrusive and reeks of 1984.. no. They're banning it because it isn't going to be racially fair in its oppression. That's a tad twisted.
● There's a poll out which shows that Biden has a 30 point lead over Bernie. There's something wrong with this. Not only is this a huge sudden shift, but it also conflicts with other data showing Bernie's approval within the party and 77% of the party embracing socialism. I suspect (1) polling error, (2) Republicans sneaking into the poll and picking Biden, and (3) other Democrats hoping to knock Bernie off, knowing that Biden has no chance to win.
● I've pointed out several times that women run the Democratic Party and that trend is going to increase. Here's another piece of data to support this: 60% of Democratic primary voters will be women. This is why they are pandering to women so heavily.
● My whole life, the left has claimed that men don't take women seriously when it comes to politics. I would argue this is men don't take liberal women seriously, but either way. So guess what Margaret Carlson said the other day which does nothing to help the case of taking liberal women voters seriously. She said that the reason Beto is finished (he's crashing in the polls) is that he remind women of their most irresponsible boyfriends and he's turning them off at that level. Not policy. Not electability. Not leadership ability. Boyfriend material. When even liberals say this is what other liberals are thinking, should we really take their views seriously?
● Mayor Buttguy is finding that his support has significant limits. In the news media, he's a darling. In black America, he has virtually zero support. He's laying this on not having had a chance yet for blacks to see that he will represent their interests. Doubt it. The reality is that blacks have never embraced gays and, now that gays are no longer part of the coalition, they embrace them even less so. Why does this matter? Without heavy (Obama-level) black turnout, he loses Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida for sure.
Thoughts?
● San Francisco is banning the use of facial recognition software by the state. They are worried that it could discriminate because it's more likely to get minority faces wrong than white faces. So they aren't banning it because it's hyper-intrusive and reeks of 1984.. no. They're banning it because it isn't going to be racially fair in its oppression. That's a tad twisted.
● There's a poll out which shows that Biden has a 30 point lead over Bernie. There's something wrong with this. Not only is this a huge sudden shift, but it also conflicts with other data showing Bernie's approval within the party and 77% of the party embracing socialism. I suspect (1) polling error, (2) Republicans sneaking into the poll and picking Biden, and (3) other Democrats hoping to knock Bernie off, knowing that Biden has no chance to win.
● I've pointed out several times that women run the Democratic Party and that trend is going to increase. Here's another piece of data to support this: 60% of Democratic primary voters will be women. This is why they are pandering to women so heavily.
● My whole life, the left has claimed that men don't take women seriously when it comes to politics. I would argue this is men don't take liberal women seriously, but either way. So guess what Margaret Carlson said the other day which does nothing to help the case of taking liberal women voters seriously. She said that the reason Beto is finished (he's crashing in the polls) is that he remind women of their most irresponsible boyfriends and he's turning them off at that level. Not policy. Not electability. Not leadership ability. Boyfriend material. When even liberals say this is what other liberals are thinking, should we really take their views seriously?
● Mayor Buttguy is finding that his support has significant limits. In the news media, he's a darling. In black America, he has virtually zero support. He's laying this on not having had a chance yet for blacks to see that he will represent their interests. Doubt it. The reality is that blacks have never embraced gays and, now that gays are no longer part of the coalition, they embrace them even less so. Why does this matter? Without heavy (Obama-level) black turnout, he loses Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida for sure.
Thoughts?
2 comments:
1) The San Francisco thing is silly and nothing more than a finger in the dam. The tech is here and getting better and it will be used sooner rather than later.
2) That Biden bounce is weird. Could be support flowing from the no-hopers to the front-runner. That happens every primary at some point. Granted its incredibly early for such a thing to happen but with 25+ candidates and limited spaces on debate stages it makes sense the pruning process is starting earlier than in the past.
Like I've said before, I think a charismatic big talker with no or a short record could come out of nowhere and beat the current field.
3) I agree women are the majority of Dems at the moment but polling data indicates many don't have a problem with male candidates or a soft spot for female candidates so I don't think it will mean much for the foreseeable future.
4) I just read the Carlson poll and it attacks Beto on pretty much every front. She seems salty that he is getting more attention than the female candidates (none of whom are getting much traction even among women). *Shrugs* I think the fact that he lost his last election dooms him.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/beto-orourke-blew-it?ref=scroll
5) As for Buttigieg, in black America, literally 90% of the 25+ candidates running have zero support. His big problem is blacks tend to focus on electability (Obama's black supported lagged well behind his white support until it was clear he could win) and right now his only distinguishing feature is being gay rather than being a winner at the polls.
● What the heck? I'm woke now! Expect a consumer arms race between the facial recognition softwares and the the items designed to thwart them. This is a highly asymmetrical battle. Algorithms are expensive, makeup and retro-reflective clothing are cheap. Fashions designed to defeat facial recognition will only look weird in the early-adoption stage.
● If you think the DNC chicanery of 2016 is done, man, have I got some bridges for you! Some of Biden's rise is due to making it official (they've been including him in polls for months) and some is due to memories of Obama, doubtless. But this looks very fixed from without. One sign, right before and after the Biden announcement, NPR started running segments seeding the idea that it's okay to vote for an old white guy if it means defeating Trump. No, the average Dem isn't an NPR listener, but I can't begin to tell you how many Democrat talking-points seem to have their genesis there. Expect the Dems to rally around the Great White Dope, er, Hope in the primaries.
● The worst thing for women candidates is a large base of women voters. It's like I always say to feminists who despair over the apparent lack of female officeholders: It's a real shame that women aren't allowed to cast their votes for men.
● Beto never saw a table he was unwilling to stand on, but Beto was never the guy. Also, Beto is a furry.
● I'm given to understand that it's pronounced "Buttjudge." In any case, despite being gay, the Buttmeister apparently has a whiteness problem. Note that this does not imply that Biden also has a whiteness problem. No, Buttman's whiteness problem is that the Democrat party needs to prove it's not the party of white men while simultaneously electing a white man. That means all the white men who get booted must be booted for their masculinity and their whiteness. (See also, Beto is bad boyfriend material.)
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