Thursday, October 29, 2020

So There's an Election

I really have no idea how this election will turn out. Honestly, it could go either way.

Let's start with the basics. There are states that will go for Trump, no matter what, and states that will go for the socialist whacko, no matter what. Those states don't matter. What matters are a handful of swing states that could go either way. You can forget the national polls too. They don't matter. New York and California lean so far left that they add millions to the Democrat in the national vote. But those votes are lost in our 50%+1 goes to the winner system. Also, ignore polls that only look at the public. Likely voters are what matter. Even then, polls have proven to be very unreliable, especially where Trump is concerned because people lie about supporting him. So what have we got?

There are lots of reasons to suspect Trump will lose. There are so many anti-Trump Republicans. The left hates him (though they are surprisingly disengaged). The entire system is against him. The polls show him losing in huge numbers, too. Even the state-by-state polls put him several points behind in all the swing states.

That said, there are some odd things in the polls. First, internal Democratic polls (where revealed) tend to be several points further right than the public polls. Also, in the last election, Trump did between 3% and 6% better than his polling in most states.  Some of the polls seem crazy too.  Trump won't lose a swing state by 17%, he just won't.

There's also this: polls of Hispanics, Asians and blacks show Trump getting more support than last time and far more support than Republicans have been getting. If that holds true, it shakes things up dramatically. I think this is the reason Trump may win Nevada. Trump is even getting strange support among rappers. Lil Wayne is the latest to support Trump.

What I see to support this is panic from the Dems in Florida. There are screams of low turnout in black and Hispanic areas. Recriminations among operatives. Unexpectedly high pro-Trump turnout. That's all good for Trump and bad for the Dems. If this is true, and it carries over to other states, then Trump should win Nevada, has a good chance in Arizona, and will likely win Ohio and North Carolina. Michigan looks lost to me, but who knows. I think Trump is suffering from the nuts in Michigan turning people off.

I was told months ago that Trump is winning Nevada and I think that might be true. That will be a shock to the Dems. A friend who lives there says he sees nothing but Trump support and the local Democrats talking about legal challenges.  All good signs.

I wonder if the BLM riots might help Trump win Pennsylvania, Washington and Oregon, though Wash and Oregon are always just mirages for the Republicans.

I see no enthusiasm for Biden anywhere, which might actually hurt him.  I've seen one bumper sticker in Colorado... though Colorado will solidly go for Biden.

Wisconsin seems lost. Not sure what happened there. Minnesota is supposed to be in play, but I can't see it. They didn't even vote for Reagan.

Will this be enough? I honestly have no idea. This could be ugly. One thing I do know is that win or lose, the left is a festering tantrum that should never be trusted with power.  Sadly, they may win.  Boo.


tryanmax said...

I know the nat’l polls are meaningless, but even there, something is up. There have never, since polling has been tracked over a year out from the election, been results like these. Most elections are noisy, with the lead switching back and forth. A few have a clear leader from the beginning the whole way through, like this year, except it’s always an incumbent who enjoys an early and unambiguous lead. In the cases of losing incumbents Carter and Bush 41, the challenger swooped in to victory relatively late. So what’s up with the polls this year? I don’t know.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, I have a similar feeling. There's been something odd about the polls all long, like they stopped being genuine and became part of the anti-Trump push. This feeling is bolstered by the most recent results making no sense. How can his support grow, but Biden's lead grow?

drjim said...

Only the big cities and trust-fund babies will vote Dem in Colorado. The rest of the state is solid red. Unfortunately, the big cities have outgrown the rest of the state, so you're probably correct. I'm waiting to see how the rest of the ballot goes here.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

> Honestly, it could go either way.

How about a THIRD way?

Rolling the Dice on Chaos, Supreme Court Ducks Election-Law Cases
Andy McCarthy

> But what if they don’t get lucky?

> If the race is close, if the legerdemain in Pennsylvania and North Carolina end up mattering, then Roberts has assured that the Court will be called on to intervene post-election, in a make-or-break way. At that point, if the justices make what the media-Democrat complex deems to be the “wrong” decision — if Trump wins and the justices, correctly applying the law, rule that ballots disallowed under state statutory law may not be counted, even if they might otherwise have swung the election to Biden — then all hell will break loose.

> By the way, this is not a partisan thing. Things could get just as ugly if Biden wins under circumstances where the Court’s failure to do its job allowed Democrats to steal a close election by the kind of post-election ballot-box stuffing that the Pennsylvania court has invited — and that the Supreme Court could easily have put a stop to weeks ago. If Democrats sweep the election, they are not going to thank the Court. They are going to pack the Court, if they think they can get away with it.

tryanmax said...

How can [Trump's] support grow, but Biden's lead grow?

Not just that, but how does it make sense that Trump is polling behind in the election when his approvals are better than Obama's at the same point in his first term? How are Biden's number so high when his support is weaker than Hillary's? Yes, I realize I'm comparing two different elections, but as I said, it doesn't fit with any previous pattern.

That said, we've been down the "don't believe the polling" road before, notably with Romney. Then again, Romney's late October lead seems a little too theatrical in retrospect.

And, again, we went down the "don't believe the polling" road in 2016, and that time it was right.

Perhaps our collective guts have been right on polling for longer than we know?

ArgentGale said...

There's a lot of uncertainty here for sure and given the stakes it's pretty unnerving. Enthusiasm has been the big note I've been hearing about why Trump might pull this off. Even leaving aside the rallies and such, if you ask a Trump supporter why he/she is voting for him you're as likely to get a positive answer (pre-COVID economy, taking his campaign promises seriously, a feeling he has the common people's back from his actions, judicial appointments, etc) as much as you are negative ones about how crazy the Democrats are. Usually it's a mix of both, especially by people who reluctantly or didn't support Trump in 16 but support him now. By comparison Biden doesn't really have much beyond just being Not Trump and being Not Bush and Not Obama respectively didn't work out for either Kerry or Romney so he does have that going for him, too.

Good breakdown of how odd the polls are, too, Andrew and tryanmax. Apparently even Biden's own team has had to publicly state that their internals are a lot closer than the public ones and I've heard the same things about how Trump's Asian/Hispanic/black support is up and he had already had a better start with them than the past few GOP candidates. Likewise, other places I lurk at back up what you've said about Florida, with the Dems panicking over the early voting returns while Trump has wrapped up his campaigning there to focus on other states and if you're right about Florida being a good bellwether he is coming in stronger than the polls indicate.

What worries me is what's going to happen beyond Florida and Ohio, which it also sounds like he's got a decent chance of winning. The article Unknown posted detailing how Pennsylvania and North Carolina just threw the doors open for an Al Franken scenario isn't a good sign for Trump, especially if he can't make up for losing at least one of those states. If he does get Nevada that might mitigate the damage but if PA, WI, MI, MN, and NC all go blue, even if two of them are the results of shameless fraud, then it's game over for Trump. Aside from the wrongness of that scenario your very last line about how the left shouldn't be trusted with power due to their insanity is what worries me most of all, especially if they set about breaking the system once they officially take power next year should they pull it off.

Tennessee Jed said...

I think your analysis is correct. The forces arrayed against Trump in terms of money, media bias is amazing. Young voters may be a problem for Trump. Blacks and Hispanics a plus. Dems have the revenge factor. Pandemic played beautifully into their hands. If they win the senate and the White House, the future is bleak indeed

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, I'm amazed how cynical they've been about the pandemic. It really shows that the American left is no less willing to use death to push its agenda than the Nazis, the Soviets and the Chinese were.

On young voters, they never turn out. This year turn out will be lower too because many aren't at college where they had been voting.

The black and Hispanic thing is interesting. If that hold true, the Democrats are doomed. I guess we'll see.

AndrewPrice said...

drjim, The Springs is solidly Trump. Sadly, Denver so f*ing large that it overwhelms the rest of us.

As an aside, I'm in Denver a lot (and travel a lot generally). I see no open enthusiasm for Biden. There is tons of Trump support here.

AndrewPrice said...

Unknown, I think this one ends up in the courts either way. The Dems are not going to concede anything this time. They don't mind destroying the world in the process... that's what tantrums are about.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, I've largely stopped believing polling. It's done for political purposes, not truth telling purposes. And I think it goes way back. Even as far back as Reagan I remember polls coming out showing Reagan losing in 1984, which was the biggest landslide in history.

AndrewPrice said...

Daniel, I have yet to hear a single reason to vote for Biden. All I hear is anger at Trump. Trump has had some brilliant ads in the area showing the positive things he's done.

I don't worry about Florida or Ohio. I do worry about Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Kind of worry about North Carolina.

tryanmax said...

Well, Biden will lead an effective strategy to mobilize trunalimunumaprzure.

Rustbelt said...

Just saw the news while preparing for trick-or-treat:

R.I.P. Sir Sean Connery, 1930 - 2020

AndrewPrice said...

Series of polls out in swing states. The fact Arizona is listed as a swing state after hearing how Biden would win that one is interesting.

Equally interesting, Biden is under 50% in Penn, Florida, Arizona. That suggests a Trump win. Wisconsin, Biden is 52%, which likely means a loss.

Nail biter.

AndrewPrice said...

Rustbelt, Connery's death makes me sad.

tryanmax said...

Even the term "swing state" projects bias.

When the press talks about a state going purple, it's almost always in regards to a red state. As soon as Democrats win an election, the press is in a hurry to say it's going purple.

By contrast, you have a state like Wisconsin that has a GOP senator, two of its last four governors are Republicans, its House delegation is predominantly Republican, and it went red in the last presidential election, but the narrative holds that Wisconsin is blue.

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