Supreme Thoughts

I was finishing an article on Biden's terrible, horrible, no good, very bad first year when the news hit that Supreme Court Justice Breyer intends to retire. So it made sense to share some thoughts on that instead.

● First, stay calm. Talk radio will tell you about the end of the world, but looking at the possibilities, the GOP can't lose and the Democrats can't win. Breyer is the court's strongest intellectual leftist, so if they find the perfect replacement, nothing changes. But anything less than a perfect replacement hurts the left. Why?

● The problem the left is facing is that Breyer was the intellectual driving the court's left. He was smart and clever -- top notch. And he knew how to justify his views and how to trip up the conservative justices when they overreached. The other leftists remaining on the court just aren't that bright. Sotomayer, for example, plays well to leftist journalists because she speaks like they think, but she's a legal lightweight. If they replace Breyer with another lightweight like Sotomayer, the left loses its intellectual motor on the court and its ideology will get run over time and again.

● Unfortunately for them, finding someone of his caliber will be incredibly hard. There just aren't that many heavyweight justices out there. What's more, limiting the talent pool to black women makes it even harder. And that's before the other problem: the Democrats are looking for a partisan, not a thinker. In other words, they are looking for the very thing they should not be looking for.

● In fact, the black women already being mentioned lack intellectual prowess. That's bad for the left. They may pound the table with the best of them -- who knows -- but none of the ones mentioned will ever write the kind of scathing technocratic takedowns that swung a guy like Roberts from time to time and justified leftist thought in terms that made it hard to challenge.

● As an aside, forget Harris. Everything I see tells me that team Biden despises her, and I'm not surprised. She has a history of being seen as worthless by allies all the way from the beginning (she's the Peter Principle on steroids), and I don't see anyone on the left wanting to risk putting her on the court. Also, as I've said before, she lacks an ideological core and dances to the tune of corporate backers, making her a terrible choice for anyone wanting to defend an ideology.

● NBC tonight said that this was a chance for Biden to prove himself to blacks and shore up the support of an important (vital) constituency before the election. Indeed, recent polls show Biden's support among blacks slipping from 90% to 60%. Take that with a grain of salt, but Biden clearly has a problem and needs to energize his black base. Will this do it? Nope. Why?

● For one thing, this will happen before the election. That makes it a fait accompli when it comes time to vote. People don't tend to reward politicians for favors already done. Machiavelli tells us this, in fact. He says to inflict pain right away and all at once, because people will forget, but spread out rewards because people are fickle and hold off delivering until you get what you want. By the time the election rolls around, blacks will see this as "what have you done for me lately." And if she puts her foot in her mouth, she becomes an embarrassment. This only way this energizes blacks is if the Republicans step in it and come across as actual racists.

● Secondly, I'm not convinced that black men are all that excited about rewards given to black women. There seems to be a real disconnect there.

● I actually think this is aimed at energizing "women." I think Biden thinks that "women" are a collective. But they aren't. White women and black women have suffered a disconnect with a lot of anger aimed at white women by black women (think back on the "hey, white woman" articles), so picking a partisan (i.e. a yeller rather than an ideologue thinker) black woman could further alienate white women. Also, the angry white women faction is notoriously self-centered and tramples over their allies to get their share. Giving this seat to a black woman will not be seen as giving them their share.

● Ultimately, I think black and white female support goes up at first on principle -- more with blacks than with whites, and some black male support as well. But the bounce fades quickly and their support will depend on other issues in the election cycle.

● So how should Republicans handle this? I would float some names right now of qualified but moderate-left black women, Hispanic women, a Muslim, and a lesbian or two, and I would say these women are quite acceptable and we would support them. Then explain what kinds of qualifications you think they need. This prevents a charge of racism and obstruction because the GOP identified several qualified leftist women and what they think is important. Biden and the media, however, will respond by going insane and tearing these women apart, which is really bad optics. It also creates the opportunity that they may invent reasons these women aren't acceptable which ultimately trap the candidates the left want... "hey, you said they needed this! Now you're changing your mind??"

● I said we can't lose, but we will lose if we come across as racists. Censure anyone who goes that route.

● You could also argue that the left wins by replacing an expiring (older) judge with a younger judge, but it's unrealistic to think we can block appointments for three more years. That would make us look terrible. So name some good ones and let them pick a bad one who isn't up to Breyer's intellectual level and in-fight.

● That said, we all need to brace for more hero worship from the left regardless of who they pick. Watch for sycophantic documentaries, fainting legal groupies and Democrats going to therapy with sex fantasies involving their new crush. See The Notorious RGB for reference (LINK and LINK).

Those are my thoughts. As long as we don't act like racist obstructionists, this cannot hurt us, but it is a very delicate balancing act for the left, one I don't think they can manage because they've lost their minds and want the wrong things now.

Your thoughts?