I know the issue of who is behind this attack keeps coming up. I think it's worth discussing. Before we do, however, please note that this is ALL GUESSWORK... looking at motives, that's it. There is no evidence of collusion yet by anyone, and I am not saying there is. That said, let's talk about who gains and loses from this as we watch to see if any evidence of collusion ever does appear (Biden is apparently looking for evidence of Iranian involvement).
(1) Hamas alone. This is the most obvious choice. They are blinded by obsession. They are struggling with relevance because they only matter when engaged in crisis and right now they are saddled with the responsibility of running Gaza. It's hard to be liked when you can't arrange for trash pickup. This attack makes them relevant again. Also, the more people the Israelis kill, the more likely they are that the world supports them.
Other reasons to think it's only them: There were only a couple hundred involved, apparently. That makes this a small operation, which suggests intimacy rather than state sanction. Half of Hamas is apparently upset these guys took women and children hostage. That suggests this was a faction rather than the whole thing, again suggesting this was nothing official. The West Bank did not get involved. If this was coordinated, why not do a general Palestinian uprising? Likewise, there were no terror attacks in third countries by Palestinian operatives. Again, this suggests a rogue faction and not any sort of official backing.
(2) Iran. They back the Palestinians to cause chaos in the West. Iran likes to be seen as a power player and this fits that. They have also been getting pretensions lately since the Russians have come begging them for equipment to use in Ukraine... Too. Big. For. Their. Britches. Also, Iran and Saudi are enemies and the US is reconciling with Saudi after Biden fractured the relationship initially. This could have been seen as a way to splinter that relationship again.
On the other hand, this could just as easily unite the Saudis and the US... friends forgive when faced with danger. Moreover, Iran usually starts playing games when they are involved in something... hit and runs at tankers, that sort of thing. Yet, they've been silent this time. Also, there apparently isn't much internal support for this with their public. Iran is involved at least to the extent of supporting Hamas, and they may have a veto on attacks. Other than that, though, there isn't evidence yet of them encouraging this or partaking.
(3) Russia. Russia could certainly use the distraction. This kind of conflict could draw in the US, stopping weapons exports to Ukraine. It will splinter Europe and the US, which could cause dissent on Ukraine. Further, the Ukrainians were begging the Israelis for weapons this past month. This ends that as Israel can't afford to spare them now. And Putin is a games player who might think of this kind of move. The problem is, Russia doesn't have much sway with the Palestinians anymore and there's really no evidence of Russian backing. If this theory makes sense, it makes the most sense as a favor Russia asked of Iran... "please cause a distraction." If that proves true, look for Russian anti-aircraft batteries to start appearing in Iran as the price. Most likely though, Russia was not involved.
(4) Al Qaeda/Taliban. The Taliban has for years proven to be an internal force. Civil warriors, not external terrorists. They are unlikely to be involved. Al Qaeda would love to attack Israel and the US, but they haven't claimed a hand in this... which they always do. Also, moving into Palestine would step on Iranian toes. I can't see either group being involved here.
(5) Saudi. Kind of far fetched, but the Saudis are dirty players and this might be a good way to bring themselves back into the good graces of the Americans by making us focus on Iran as the regional bad guy. They need help in a war they are fighting in Yemen and a change of image: the enemy of my enemy is my closest friend and weapon's supplier. That's pretty complicated reasoning and the new prince running Saudi seems more economically focused, which means he wants stability, so I dismiss it. But I can't say it's impossible.
(6) Israel: Could it be that a hated Prime Minister stages a black flag operation to make himself a victim and save his regime? No. That's paranoid logic... but expect to hear it from paranoids and anti-Israelis.
(1) Hamas alone. This is the most obvious choice. They are blinded by obsession. They are struggling with relevance because they only matter when engaged in crisis and right now they are saddled with the responsibility of running Gaza. It's hard to be liked when you can't arrange for trash pickup. This attack makes them relevant again. Also, the more people the Israelis kill, the more likely they are that the world supports them.
Other reasons to think it's only them: There were only a couple hundred involved, apparently. That makes this a small operation, which suggests intimacy rather than state sanction. Half of Hamas is apparently upset these guys took women and children hostage. That suggests this was a faction rather than the whole thing, again suggesting this was nothing official. The West Bank did not get involved. If this was coordinated, why not do a general Palestinian uprising? Likewise, there were no terror attacks in third countries by Palestinian operatives. Again, this suggests a rogue faction and not any sort of official backing.
(2) Iran. They back the Palestinians to cause chaos in the West. Iran likes to be seen as a power player and this fits that. They have also been getting pretensions lately since the Russians have come begging them for equipment to use in Ukraine... Too. Big. For. Their. Britches. Also, Iran and Saudi are enemies and the US is reconciling with Saudi after Biden fractured the relationship initially. This could have been seen as a way to splinter that relationship again.
On the other hand, this could just as easily unite the Saudis and the US... friends forgive when faced with danger. Moreover, Iran usually starts playing games when they are involved in something... hit and runs at tankers, that sort of thing. Yet, they've been silent this time. Also, there apparently isn't much internal support for this with their public. Iran is involved at least to the extent of supporting Hamas, and they may have a veto on attacks. Other than that, though, there isn't evidence yet of them encouraging this or partaking.
(3) Russia. Russia could certainly use the distraction. This kind of conflict could draw in the US, stopping weapons exports to Ukraine. It will splinter Europe and the US, which could cause dissent on Ukraine. Further, the Ukrainians were begging the Israelis for weapons this past month. This ends that as Israel can't afford to spare them now. And Putin is a games player who might think of this kind of move. The problem is, Russia doesn't have much sway with the Palestinians anymore and there's really no evidence of Russian backing. If this theory makes sense, it makes the most sense as a favor Russia asked of Iran... "please cause a distraction." If that proves true, look for Russian anti-aircraft batteries to start appearing in Iran as the price. Most likely though, Russia was not involved.
(4) Al Qaeda/Taliban. The Taliban has for years proven to be an internal force. Civil warriors, not external terrorists. They are unlikely to be involved. Al Qaeda would love to attack Israel and the US, but they haven't claimed a hand in this... which they always do. Also, moving into Palestine would step on Iranian toes. I can't see either group being involved here.
(5) Saudi. Kind of far fetched, but the Saudis are dirty players and this might be a good way to bring themselves back into the good graces of the Americans by making us focus on Iran as the regional bad guy. They need help in a war they are fighting in Yemen and a change of image: the enemy of my enemy is my closest friend and weapon's supplier. That's pretty complicated reasoning and the new prince running Saudi seems more economically focused, which means he wants stability, so I dismiss it. But I can't say it's impossible.
(6) Israel: Could it be that a hated Prime Minister stages a black flag operation to make himself a victim and save his regime? No. That's paranoid logic... but expect to hear it from paranoids and anti-Israelis.
18 comments:
It's interesting to me to see the attempts to shift blame already in the leftist media. Yahoo, for example, has shown pictures of crying Arab children in articles talking about the Israelis killed. Every Hamas misdeed is balanced with an imagined "could be" Israeli misdeed. Rather than talking about the Israeli children killed, they say "crimes against children rampant in Israel-Palestinian War," as if both sides are beheading children. Notice also how they named the war after Israel as if it struck first, how they made it a war rather than a terrorist attack and this is a war on the Palestinians rather than Hamas. None of that is true at this point.
A couple of news outlets have been caught telling their reporters not to use the word "terrorist" when talking about Hamas. But that is what they are and what they did. And there seems to be no similar restriction on Israel.
This is the same problem we had with 9/11. These anti-Western bigots worked hard to spin 9/11 into some sort of tit for tat or worries of imagined American abuses to come. It's truly propaganda when you spin everything to fit one side.
But then, this is no surprise to conservatives who are regularly victims of the media's leftist propaganda push. Kind of funny how all the "antisemites" they've attributed to the right over the past decade seem to be screaming from the left, isn't it?
Andrew
Here is the latest, which I think is interesting.
1. Israel is apparently warning people to leave specific neighborhoods and then flattening them. Smart move by the Israelis. The media is trying to paint this as evil because "some people have nowhere to go" but that's not going to work... it's hard to sympathize with someone who decides to stay. And no one likes nitpickers -- a medical condition on the left, apparently -- but that is what a lot of the complaints are: not enough time after warning to do whatever, how do you know everyone is getting the warning, some have nowhere to go. Nitpicking. Does not stack up well against beheaded babies.
2. The media is trying to make a big deal about the hospital running out of fuel in 5 days. But 5 days is a long time away. And if they evacuate, there will be no tragedy. In that regard, see next point:
3. Biden is apparently trying to broker a deal to create a humanitarian corridor to let civilians evacuate to Egypt. That would be a serious loss for Hamas if the people they hope get slaughtered get out. Again, smart of Israel. Hamas will have to agree or be the villains, which really puts them on the spot too.
4. Israel has targeted rich neighborhoods, which is interesting as well. It's harder to sympathize with rich people. Plus, these are the people who have benefited from the current situation and have the power to change it. For once, punishing people with control rather than public at large.
Interesting strategy so far. It's left the media with little to attack the Israelis over at this point.
Andrew
New interesting headline... a top Hamas official says that the attack was planned two years ago and only five top people knew about it. Assuming this is true...
1. It rules out everyone above except Hamas and maybe Iran. Though the evidence is pointing against Iran.
2. It wipes out the narrative the left is slowly building that this is the fault of the "right wing government." I'm seeing articles (particularly at Yahoo) where they are suggesting there is no way Netanyahu didn't know, meaning he let this happen hint hint so it's his fault. They also argue this is the result of Israel suddenly going evil under him. But nothing the left has been crying about with him was happening two years ago. So that did not cause it.
3. It does lean toward the idea that this was Hamas's attempt to gain popularity before their suppose elections (if they happen, these will be the first since 2006).
Andrew
Andrew,
This is a reasonable breakdown considering what we know so far. I don't have anything to ad as its all hearsay at this point.
Cory Mills (a Rep from Florida) flew out to Israel after the attacks to help on the ground… so far he has rescued 30+ Americans and Helped both Palestinians & Israelis alike. Pretty cool dude.
When this attack happened over the weekend, one of my first thoughts were “what are the powers that be up to this time?”. Apparently many others I've talked with felt the same way I did. My point is: there is very little trust in our institutions at this point in time. Whether it be media or government; There have been so many contradicting agendas and Identity politics related crap, that its gotten to the point where my first thought was not of the people being killed. Just an observation I’ve noticed over the last week. Kinda a sick society-in-decline feel going on at the moment.
-Kyle
In regards to the various legacy mediots omitting facts and failing to call Hamas terrorists: I’ve read them too (one from Politco no less!).
Its just Identity Politics driven crap combined with “See! The West is the real problem!”. Lots of idiots using the term "Colonizer" as a derogatory term for Westerners as well as justification... What is it these idiots are trying to justify exactly? That the West deserves Hamas style attacks?
I've also read a whole lot of Leftoid BLM cope in regards to their support of Hamas. I mean BLM have been saying the same thing for years and the establishment Left is just now noticing?
-Kyle
Kyle,
"My point is: there is very little trust in our institutions at this point in time"
I agree completely and I honestly can't blame people for it. The media flat out lies and misleads to sell its desired narrative. The government attacks those it doesn't like and protects those with power. Corporations lie and deceive, poison and steal with pride. Science draws conclusions it cannot reach and seeks to destroy those who disagree. The political parties exist for weirdos and haters. The left has become a dishonest religion of hate. The right has gone full retard.
How can anyone trust anything in those circumstances?
These are not good times. The problem is, we can't live in a world where reality is no longer real. It will drive you insane. It will destroy your life. For our own sakes, if nothing else... our sanity... we must start cutting through the lies and deceptions and diversions and seek the truth. The fringes aren't going to do it. The establishment is going to do it. We are the only ones. And maybe if we spread the word enough, tell the people who've been infected, "no, that isn't true and here's why," maybe we can start to build a better world again?
Andrew
Kyle,
It is the unhinged natural consequences of leftist identity politics. They've been saying this crap for over a decade now and no one noticed because the left downplays its own hate and tries to shift the blame for "antisemitism" to the right. But this event has betrayed the sickness of what they've allowed... what they espouse.
Did you ever see the movie Rope? The center left has become Jimmy Stewart's character when he realizes that his own teachings led his students to become sick killers. The difference is, whereas Stewart was horrified and took responsibility in the movie... Yahoo has chosen to try to save their narrative with a propaganda push.
Andrew
Yes Andrew,
There are no top down solutions. It will take a grassroots effort from every individual in the West to counter this rot in our institutions. When I say “West” I’m including Europe as well.
The Establishment leaders in charge are not going to save the West that's for sure.
Rope is an excellent film; yes I’ve seen it and own it on Blu Ray (Read your review on it as well). Jimmy Stewart's final realization, as a result of his actions, is he had led two young men down a dark path. The conclusion was excellent, dark and sobering.
The Left has been allowed for decades to get away with not suffering the consequences from their own Policies (NIMBY crap comes to mind). IMO as a result they can not comprehend that it is their policies and actions that have led to many of the failures in the West. As I’ve said before, most of the American Left is not capable of course correcting on even basic and obviously failed policies. Instead they revel in propaganda and pretend its anything but them that is responsible. Its hard to even have a conversation with people like that, as they just gaslight and “what about” all the time instead of making reality based arguments. Basically the Left is a religion of sorts… doctrines, blasphemies and all.
-Kyle
Interesting thing today in the news. The Daily Mail has posted an image of some cars on fire with a claim from Hamas that this was a convoy of people leaving on an Israeli approved escape highway.
Here's the thing. There's no crater. An attack from the air is highly highly likely to leave a crater. This looks staged.
I guess we'll see what the Israelis say. I'm no fan of them, but I also know the history enough to know that there is a reason neither Jordon nor Lebanon nor Egypt want to help the Palestinians.
Andrew
Kyle,
I agree on all points. In fact, that's my experience with the left: they never admit they've caused anything bad or done anything wrong, no matter how nastily they've behaved. This is why they think nothing of saying racist and basically sexually assaultive things to conservative women and yet claim they are combating such things. In my experience, they also smear other people with their own sins.
And in the past decade or so, they've very much morphed into a very extreme religion with dogma, heresies and pogroms.
Not a fan.
I agree about our "leaders." Most of them are part of the elite anyways and don't really think in terms of the American people. The rest seems to be opportunists and fools. I couldn't actually name one person in power -- politics, business or even celebrity -- that I think we could trust to help at this point.
Andrew
I have a friend who is a bit like "AI", he parrots garbage he hears online. In that sense, he's like a garbage aggregator. Here is some of what is being passed around by the dumbsh*t world:
Israel will wait to attack until the stockmarket opens so they can short stocks.
The US will use B-1 bombers in Gaza to help Israel.
The US is sending 2 infantry division to Lebanon. (Down with Lebanon!)
Iran has caused this to create a diversion so they can invade Saudi.
Putin caused this so he can nuke the Ukraine without anyone noticing.
Chinese aircraft carriers are headed to the Persian gulf.
Biden caused this to cover up for Hunter Biden.
Palestinians are going to unleash suicide bombers on the West Coast. (This is actually possible, but I have no idea why the West Coast.)
Turkish aircraft carriers are coming. (They have a helicopter carrier, that's it and it lives in the region.)
What? No Aliens? This makes my head hurt. All I can say is this is the state of America... this is the crap being sold to regular people.
Andrew
Andrew, here's another to ad to the list:
I keep seeing neo liberals mouthing off about how Putin is behind the Hamas attacks, and that he and Trump coordinated together to sabotage the Biden Admin.
It's from the Rachel Maddow wing of "All roads lead to Russia" retardation.
Dumbshit incarnate.
-Kyle
Hi Kyle,
//facepalm
I haven't heard that one yet, but I am not the least bit surprised. Large, tragic events like this give everyone a chance to connect the dots to their favorite boogeymen.
There is no evidence for Putin and I can't even imagine how Trump could do this.
Talking to my friend has been challenging, honestly, because he is entirely immune to facts. No matter how much I point out to him how impossible or pointless his beliefs are, he KNOWS it's true. Kind of frustrating. Even as they haven't happened, he refuses to give up on them. And he's not ideological, he's just a weather-vane for what he sees online and in the news. I hate to think how much of the debate is being driven by average people with their heads filled with garbage.
Sorry, that was me. Andrew. It won't let me sign in for some reason.
New conspiracy theory on right-wing talk radio: Biden went to Israel because he knew they wouldn't attack while he was there so this was merely an attempt to stop them attacking.
Stupid.
Stupid AF.
Honestly, Biden going was a really good thing. It showed super strong support for Israel by the US, which will make places like Iran think twice. Basically, it says "we aren't kidding." Especially with troop ships sent to the region. And trying to turn that into something bad shows derangement, not clever seeing of tHE TRUth.
And if anyone thinks Israel didn't approve of and coordinate this visit, then they are... well, stupid.
This is fools looking for narratives to excite other fools. If your talk radio host repeated this, then he is a fool and you should stop listening.
Andrew
Well, one thing I read is that there was to be a simultaneous attack on several fronts, but Hamas jumped the gun. Certainly, if nothing else, I would think Iran had to be helping in some way, either supply money, weapons or both. But, guesswork on my part.
Jed
Rep. Mike Johnson has been elected Speaker of the House, I wish him well. Seems like a decent pick, time will tell...
Certainly better than Hakeem Jeffries lol.
-Kyle.
A World War honestly does not seem so far fetched now. The fog of war prevails; however it does appear that the US may end up in a tight spot with Iran. Not good at all.
Just a tip of the iceberg:
I know of many service men who flat out will not fight for our current government, not even if it involves a draft or to help Israel. Point being the West is currently in a very weak position.
I miss the Trump years.
-Kyle
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