Election Day, Tuesday, Nov 4, 2014 - Thank God we are finally here! By all measures, the Republicans are poised to take over the Senate. But to do that Repubs need to pick up at least 6 seats to rid the world of Harry Reid. This means that maybe President Obama will finally learn how to engage Congress since he will have no one to run interference.
But let's not get cocky. It's not over yet and anything could happen. Hey, martial law could be declared or Obama could declare an Ebola quarantine on anyone who can locate Liberia/Guinea/Sierra Leone on a map or a sudden hurricane could strike like in 2012 or aliens could land on the White House lawn (most likely scenario since just about anyone can jump the WH fence and walk in the unlocked front door these days). But just in case none of that happens, here is what we should look for and where it all stands:
This info was extracted From HuffPo so it will be the most favorable to Democrats:
Solid Republican Wins predicted at least 98% probability:
South Dakota -Rounds (R) v. Weiland (D-Incumbent) = ROUNDS WINS - Second pick up for Republicans
West Virginia -Capito (R) v. Tennent (D-Incumbent) - CAPITO WINS - First Pick up for Republicans
Montana - Daines (R) v. Curtis (D-Incumbant)
Arkansa -Cotton (R) v. Pryor (D-Incumbant) - COTTON WINS - Third pick up for Republicans NEW!!
Senate races still in play with at least 80% probability:
Alaska - Sullivan (R) v. Begich (D-Incumbent) - This race predicted to be much closer and may not be decided tomorrow. No runoff possibility.
Kentucky -McConnell (R-Incumbant) v. Grimes (D) - GRIMES CONCEDES; MCCONNELL KEEPS HIS SEAT...
Senate races still in play with at least 60% probability:
Colorado - Gardner (R) v. Udall (D-Incumbent) -
Georgia - Purdue (R) v. Nunn (D) (Open race - Republican incumbent party) - If neither get 50%, there will be a runoff.
Louisiana - Cassidy (R) v. Landrieu (D-Incumbent) v. Maness (R/TP Independent) - With Maness splitting the Republican vote there will most likely be runoff between Cassidy and Landrieu if neither reaches 50% of the vote. Since the last days of her campaign, Landrieu managed to call her Louisiana constituents racists, she really has no hope even if there is a runoff.
Senate races still in play that are too close to predict:
Iowa - Ernst (R) v. Braley (D-Incumbent)
Kansas - Roberts (R0Incumbent) v. Orman (I)
North Carolina - Tillis (R) v. Hagan (D-Incumbent)
New Hampshire - Brown (R) v. Shaheen (D-Incumbent)
House Races -
Republicans are predicted to pick up at least 12 seats. I know there are many more, however these are three races to watch:
-Mia Love (R) in Utah District 4 is leading by 8% against Doug Owens (D). If she wins she will be the first black Republican woman to serve in Congress.
-In an open race in New York District 21 is predicted to pick up the youngest woman to serve in Congress - Elise Stepafik (R) against Aaron Wolff (D).
-And in another NY race - Michael Grimm (R/Staten Island) who is currently under a 21-count federal indictment, is leading his opponent by 19%. My feeling is that Grimm will be cleared on all counts eventually.
And just because it's going to be a long night -
Races for Governor to watch -
- Wisconsin - Scott Walker (R-Incumbent) v. Mary Burke (D) is too close to call. Walker is leading in the polls by 2.2% according to RCP.
- Florida - Rick Scott (R-Incumbent) v. Charlie Crist (D) and former Governor - This is so close (.6% RCP) that this may be decided by one of those famous Florida "hanging chad" recounts.
- Georgia - There probably will not be another Carter elected as Georgia Governor. Jason Carter (grandson to Jimmah) is in a three way race with Nathan Deal (R) and Andrew Hunt (L). Deal is leading by 4%, but this is another case where if no candidate receives 50% of the vote, there will be runoff. Most likely Deal will win in a runoff.
- There are races too close to call in Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island.
And I just can't help myself. I have to add the Texas Gubernatorial race between Greg Abbott (R) and Wendy Davis (D/Idiot) even though Abbott will win by double digits. This has been one for the ages. See, this is what happens when a party hangs all its hopes on a candidate with one issue and not a very popular issue at that. First, there was the much touted bid by Make Blue Texas that was launched in 2013 to...well...turn Texas from a red state to a blue state. By all accounts it has been a wonderfully miserable failure. And then there's Wendy Davis who ran one of the most ridiculously stupid one-issue campaigns of any major party candidate that I have ever seen. The most ridiculous was her last ditch effort to smear Greg Abbott, she leveled accusations that Abbott wanted to reinstate anti-miscegenation laws in Texas.
She confronted him with a "gotcha" question "Do you support mixed race marriages?" When he wouldn't respond to the question , her campaign turned it into some kind of indictment. Yes, that was an actual question. Now, not that Abbott's wife is of a different "race", but she is Hispanic. My take on it is that it was such a stupid question to ask in 2014, that he did not feel he needed to respond. From the 20 point lead that Abbott has, I am pretty sure most people in Texas agree. Fortunately for Texas, Greg Abbott is actually a great candidate and will make a great Governor.
Keep us posted on what is happening in your polling area! Now get out there and vote early and often!
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But let's not get cocky. It's not over yet and anything could happen. Hey, martial law could be declared or Obama could declare an Ebola quarantine on anyone who can locate Liberia/Guinea/Sierra Leone on a map or a sudden hurricane could strike like in 2012 or aliens could land on the White House lawn (most likely scenario since just about anyone can jump the WH fence and walk in the unlocked front door these days). But just in case none of that happens, here is what we should look for and where it all stands:
This info was extracted From HuffPo so it will be the most favorable to Democrats:
Solid Republican Wins predicted at least 98% probability:
South Dakota -
West Virginia -
Montana - Daines (R) v. Curtis (D-Incumbant)
Arkansa -
Senate races still in play with at least 80% probability:
Alaska - Sullivan (R) v. Begich (D-Incumbent) - This race predicted to be much closer and may not be decided tomorrow. No runoff possibility.
Kentucky -
Senate races still in play with at least 60% probability:
Colorado - Gardner (R) v. Udall (D-Incumbent) -
Georgia - Purdue (R) v. Nunn (D) (Open race - Republican incumbent party) - If neither get 50%, there will be a runoff.
Louisiana - Cassidy (R) v. Landrieu (D-Incumbent) v. Maness (R/TP Independent) - With Maness splitting the Republican vote there will most likely be runoff between Cassidy and Landrieu if neither reaches 50% of the vote. Since the last days of her campaign, Landrieu managed to call her Louisiana constituents racists, she really has no hope even if there is a runoff.
Senate races still in play that are too close to predict:
Iowa - Ernst (R) v. Braley (D-Incumbent)
Kansas - Roberts (R0Incumbent) v. Orman (I)
North Carolina - Tillis (R) v. Hagan (D-Incumbent)
New Hampshire - Brown (R) v. Shaheen (D-Incumbent)
House Races -
Republicans are predicted to pick up at least 12 seats. I know there are many more, however these are three races to watch:
-Mia Love (R) in Utah District 4 is leading by 8% against Doug Owens (D). If she wins she will be the first black Republican woman to serve in Congress.
-In an open race in New York District 21 is predicted to pick up the youngest woman to serve in Congress - Elise Stepafik (R) against Aaron Wolff (D).
-And in another NY race - Michael Grimm (R/Staten Island) who is currently under a 21-count federal indictment, is leading his opponent by 19%. My feeling is that Grimm will be cleared on all counts eventually.
And just because it's going to be a long night -
Races for Governor to watch -
- Wisconsin - Scott Walker (R-Incumbent) v. Mary Burke (D) is too close to call. Walker is leading in the polls by 2.2% according to RCP.
- Florida - Rick Scott (R-Incumbent) v. Charlie Crist (D) and former Governor - This is so close (.6% RCP) that this may be decided by one of those famous Florida "hanging chad" recounts.
- Georgia - There probably will not be another Carter elected as Georgia Governor. Jason Carter (grandson to Jimmah) is in a three way race with Nathan Deal (R) and Andrew Hunt (L). Deal is leading by 4%, but this is another case where if no candidate receives 50% of the vote, there will be runoff. Most likely Deal will win in a runoff.
- There are races too close to call in Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island.
And I just can't help myself. I have to add the Texas Gubernatorial race between Greg Abbott (R) and Wendy Davis (D/Idiot) even though Abbott will win by double digits. This has been one for the ages. See, this is what happens when a party hangs all its hopes on a candidate with one issue and not a very popular issue at that. First, there was the much touted bid by Make Blue Texas that was launched in 2013 to...well...turn Texas from a red state to a blue state. By all accounts it has been a wonderfully miserable failure. And then there's Wendy Davis who ran one of the most ridiculously stupid one-issue campaigns of any major party candidate that I have ever seen. The most ridiculous was her last ditch effort to smear Greg Abbott, she leveled accusations that Abbott wanted to reinstate anti-miscegenation laws in Texas.
She confronted him with a "gotcha" question "Do you support mixed race marriages?" When he wouldn't respond to the question , her campaign turned it into some kind of indictment. Yes, that was an actual question. Now, not that Abbott's wife is of a different "race", but she is Hispanic. My take on it is that it was such a stupid question to ask in 2014, that he did not feel he needed to respond. From the 20 point lead that Abbott has, I am pretty sure most people in Texas agree. Fortunately for Texas, Greg Abbott is actually a great candidate and will make a great Governor.
Keep us posted on what is happening in your polling area! Now get out there and vote early and often!























