Friday, May 14, 2010

“Immigration Splits America”. . . Not Really

The AP is pushing a new article that tell us that we, as a nation, are truly “split” on immigration. This article is based on a poll conducted by the AP and Univision. The AP’s spin is garbage. Even a cursory examination of the poll shows that Americans are amazingly unified on this issue. . . just not in the way the AP wants.

This poll broke out its results into two groups: Hispanics and non-Hispanics. And check out these results:

• 66% of both Hispanics and non-Hispanics consider illegal immigration a serious problem.

• 83% of non-Hispanics believe the federal government should be doing more to stop illegal immigration. (52% of Hispanics)

• Only 20% of non-Hispanics oppose Arizona’s new law. (67% of Hispanics)

• Only 30% of non-Hispanics hope their states don’t pass the same law Arizona did. (70% of Hispanics)

• 62% of non-Hispanics think that being in the U.S. illegally should be considered a serious crime. (24% of Hispanics)

• Only 46% of non-Hispanics think that police crackdowns are likely to target Hispanics unfairly. (73% of Hispanics)

• Only 35% of non-Hispanics believe that illegal immigrants “mostly contribute” to society. (74% of Hispanics)
The headline and the story focus on the supposed “split,” but the real story here is the level of uniformity. Americans have varied opinions and it is exceedingly rare that you ever get more than 60% support for any position. In this case, we are well beyond that. Excluding Hispanics, we are looking at between 66% and 80% of Americans who believe that illegal immigration is a problem, that more needs to be done, and that Arizona has done the right thing.

That’s incredible. If a similar number had come out in favor of ObamaCare, the headlines would have screamed about “stunning uniformity” and “entire population favors.” The limited dissenters would have been dismissed as fringe idiots and cranks. But here, because the AP doesn’t like that uniformity, it ignores that story.

Moreover, it tries to create a “split” by comparing non-Hispanics to Hispanics. But that’s hardly relevant. First, there are only 46 million Hispanics in this country compared to around 270 million non-Hispanics. If 6 of your 7 friends agreed on something, would you say that your friend are “split”? Further, one third of Hispanics are here illegally. Excluding those changes the ratio from 6/7 to 8/9. Also, presumably, these illegals will vote for self-interest in the poll, thus we must assume that the Hispanic numbers are themselves skewed and that missing number nine is more like a half.

And even if we assume that somehow the pollsters got only legally-resident Hispanics for this poll, the Hispanic numbers are themselves not as unified as presented by the AP. Indeed, a sizeable minority of Hispanics, around 30% to 40%, think just like the vast majority of non-Hispanics. Again, let us assume this was 30%-40% of Republicans supporting ObamaCare; wouldn’t the headlines have been “strong bipartisan support for ObamaCare”? Yet, somehow this qualifies as unified opposition and creates this vast split within the country. . . between your eight friends and the one dissenter.

So what are the lessons here? First, that the AP continues to be a political organization, not a journalistic one. Secondly, that the American public is remarkably unified on this issues, across all races and the entire political spectrum; they are fed up and they want something done. And third, that the left is barking up the wrong tree when they are attacking Arizona.

Finally, here's an interesting thought. Arizona's new law enjoys this massive amount of support despite the best efforts of the MSM to present the law in as draconian a manner as possible. That means that either the public no longer listens to the MSM or the public supports the draconian version of the law presented by the MSM. Either way, that's a loser for the left.

Good for us.

21 comments:

StanH said...

Legal immigration to the USA, is a critical piece in the continuation of our great Republic, and Americans of Spanish origins are some of the greatest. That misses the point of the current debate. We are a country of laws, and for the cohesive continuance of this wonderful experiment that is the USA, there can be no exceptions. That poll that you so rightly pointed out, is bogus in search of predetermined outcome, utterly useless, except to prove the contrary. Thanks for another great synopsis!

AndrewPrice said...

You're welcome Stan, and I agree. The issue of immigration and illegal immigration are two entirely separate things, despite the attempt by the left to lump them together.

To me, what's really interesting is the remarkable uniformity of thought on this. That's truly rare, and it shows what the public overwhelmingly wants. . . no matter what the AP wishes they wanted.

Tennessee Jed said...

Andrew - the results of the polling doesn't surprise me, nor does the typical left biased AP spinning. I find it a shame they get picked up by leftist news dailies across the country and network newsrooms, while your more objective analysis gets seen only by the Commentarian faithful. I'd say your readers are exhibiting exceptional good taste.

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, LOL! I agree! We're very happy with our readers.

The poll doesn't surprise me either because Americans are a very fair and tolerant bunch, but we don't like being played.

The AP's bias doesn't surprise me either any more. It is a shame that more newsrooms don't finally call out the AP on its bias and sever ties with the AP. The only way to fix something like the AP's bias is to hit them where it hurts -- in the pocketbook.

LawHawkSF said...

Andrew: The AP can manipulate statistics all it wants, but it's not going to change the underlying feelings of the vast majority of Americans. Legal, sustainable immigration, yes. Illegal, unsustainable immigration, no. Exact percentages? Who cares? The AP just uses their push polls to justify their incorrect conclusions. Public opinion manipulated by headline. Editorialization in a "news" report. Typical.

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, Maybe a push poll would have been a better idea. Then they wouldn't have gotten results that are damning to the position they wanted to achieve. Instead, all they were left with this time was trying to spin a really, really bad result for them.

LawHawkSF said...

Andrew: You're right about push polls. I guess they just ran out of time to put their pro-illegal story together, and had to live with statistics that actually prove the opposite from their conclusions.

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, It's all about spin, spin, spin. Not that anyone's buying it.

BevfromNYC said...

Well, the big news is that Holder who was pontificating about the slippery slope of the new Arizona law, hadn't even read it. It's makin' me a little crazy. Maybe we need to send them copies of "Hooked on Phonics" because none of them read anything. Maybe they can't!

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, In addition to Hooked on Phonics, we should send them Hooked on Economics, Hooked on Basic Math, and Hooked on governing.

BevfromNYC said...

Andrew, I am kinda' hoping if they learn to read, all the other issues will fall into place. LOL!

AAAAAAAHHHHHHHHGGGGGGGGGG! Okay I'm better now....

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, LOL! Crazy, it's the new normal!

Tam said...

We are taking a long weekend in Sedona this weekend. Supporting Arizona through tourism! Maybe we'll get ice cream at Cold Stone every day too...

AndrewPrice said...

Tam, Good for you! Maybe Arizona will get a boost out of this boycott? Wouldn't that be great!

LL said...

I'm in Flagstaff, AZ at the moment, spending money to help save the State...

One person I spoke with in passing said that the local liberals are considering moving to California. My response: Now THAT's depressing for us, but it would be nice for the people in Arizona.

AndrewPrice said...

LL, Now that could be a brilliant plan! We could all pass laws like this, except for one state, and basically herd all the liberals to that state! LOL!

Crispy said...

This polls citing the hispanic opinion almost seem farsical on their face. Who are the hispanics being polled? The many millions in the country illegally? When polling hispanics to get their view on the Arizona law, only those here legally should be allowed to contribute.

AndrewPrice said...

Crispy, I suspect that the Hispanic numbers are inflated for that reason. That why I suspect the Hispanic numbers are closer to 50/50, but I can't say that for a fact. I can say though, that a sizeable minority of Hispanics shares the views of the majority of Americans on this issue.

Crispy said...

Andrew, a little off topic, but I wanted to compliment you and ladyhawk on your writings on this space. I have been a "lurker" as they say, for some time, and regularly visit this site for a dose of common sense. It is all to rare these days. I truly worry for our country.

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks Crispy, I'm glad you like our site! And thanks for commenting!

LawHawkSF said...

Crispy: Ladyhawk? Them's fightin' words. LOL

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