Why Hillary Won't Challenge Obama

Some people are speculating that Hillary Clinton might challenge Obama in the Democratic primary for the 2012 election. They base this on Obama’s low poll numbers and the anger he’s producing in the country. But that doesn’t make sense, as I will explain. Moreover, I’m not even sure Hillary could run anymore at this point. Here’s why.

Why Nobody Is Running Against Obama Yet

Let’s start by dispelling the two reasons most commonly given for someone challenging Obama in the Democratic primary.

Low Poll Numbers Don’t Matter: Yes, Obama’s poll numbers are about as low as modern presidents can get, and yes they’ve been consistently low for almost a year now. But low poll numbers in and of themselves don’t matter because they are subject to change, especially with more than two years to go before the election. In other words, no one chooses to run against a sitting president just because he has low poll numbers. What politicians need to inspire them is some sort of disaster from which the president's electability won't recover. And right now, the only potential catalyst on the horizon is a potential total debacle in November. So barring that or something else dramatic, don't expect anyone to jump into the ring.

The Wrong Anger: Anger won't do it either at the moment because it's the wrong anger. There is no doubt that Obama is producing anger in the country, just as Bush produced anger in the country. But that’s not translating into anger in the Democratic ranks. Obama currently enjoys between an 85% and 92% approval rating among Democrats. Unless that changes, no Democrat will attempt to challenge him in a primary.

What this means is that we need to wait until after November to see if the Democrats suffer a big enough disaster that they start pointing fingers. Only if that happens, and only if the party itself starts to become angry with Obama will anyone challenge him. But it won’t be Hillary.

Why Hillary Won't Run

Hillary won’t run because of a combination of two factors. First, she’s smart enough not to run. Secondly, she’s put herself into a bind.

Smart Enough: No matter what we may think of Hillary, she’s not stupid. She knows that the history of insurgent candidates against a sitting incumbent president is less than glorious. I can’t think of any that ever defeated the incumbent, and most have basically destroyed their political careers in the process. This is because politics does not tolerate losers. To run and lose is almost a guarantee of the end of your political career in America. What’s worse, running against your own side makes you into a traitor. And that bad blood will keep you from being appointed to any other post or winning any other election. Since Hillary doesn't think she's done yet, it doesn't make sense for her to squander her future on a low probability run.

In A Bind: Moreover, it's not clear Hillary could run if she wanted to. Hillary may not be stupid, but she does have poor judgment. When she gave up her Senate seat, she took herself off the political map. Not only did she give up her bully pulpit, meaning that she no longer has a place from which she can challenge Obama, but she took herself out of the news cycle. When a politician makes themselves irrelevant, their support withers and dies, which has already happened to Hillary. Indeed, when Game Change came out, the political grapevine openly asked why no one came out to defend Hillary. In the past an army of Clinton people would have come out to denounce the book. This time we heard nothing but silence. That means her support is gone.

Further, by going to the State Department, a notoriously unglamorous and dead-end position, she put herself into a place where (1) she can’t raise funds, the lifeblood of any candidacy, (2) she can’t introduce legislation to rally her supporters, (3) she can’t do constituent favors, (4) her television appearances are limited to foreign policy issues, and (5) she must be loyal to Obama, bearing the brunt of his failures and sitting quietly as he steals the credit for her successes. And all of this was compounded with Obama’s disassembling the Clinton machine that Bill Clinton left in place upon leaving office and which remained in place until Obama purged it and replaced it with Chicago lackeys.

Basically, Hillary has no political machine, no profile, no base of support, no way to raise money, must do as she is told by Obama and play Obama's scapegoat, and has no way to change any of this from her present job.

If she wants to run in 2012, she needs to resign now and start rebuilding immediately, so that she can start campaigning if there is a disaster in November. Unless she does that, and there are no hints she's willing to do that, then I can't see her doing anything in 2012.