● The Polls: Polls this far out are unreliable. They are even less reliable because we can’t trust the pollsters. Most of the pollsters are using data which suggest a greater pro-Democratic turnout than Obama got in 2008, and many have begun hiding their raw data to prevent people like me from figuring out how badly they’ve skewed the data. But certain things are obvious because they run contrary to what the pollsters are trying to make you believe.
1) Romney has a small lead, even in these skewed polls. Factor out the pro-Obama bias and add in a pro-Romney enthusiasm gap and you’re looking at a landslide.This tells me Romney wins 53% to 47%.
2) Romney has a statistically significant lead in the battleground states.
3) Several “safe” blue states have become battleground states, e.g. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico.
4) Romney’s lead is consistent as is Obama’s inability to get anywhere near 50% approval.
● Enthusiasm Gap: The polls show a huge enthusiasm gap – up to 13% in favor of the Republicans. This is significant because it would take a Democratic-leaning gap for Obama to win and that just won’t happen. But look beyond the polls. Romney and Ryan are speaking to massive crowds. Obama can’t fill a phone booth. Romney and Ryan are drawing massive amounts of money. Obama’s running debt. All over the country, people are putting up signs saying, “I built this.” By comparison, Obama bumper stickers have gotten really rare. People are going in droves to see a documentary exposing Obama, but no one has been interested in any pro-Obama crap for years now. This is something you can feel in the air, hear at the store, and see in random places online – people are enthusiastic about Romney, no one’s even thinking about Obama.
● Democratic Desperation: The Democrats are hitting the bottom of the barrel in terms of how they are running this campaign. They’ve tried everything from various “wars on ___” to flat out slander. They’ve accused Romney of felonies, of hate, and of killing some guy’s wife. They’ve appealed to black-racism. They’ve tried to attack Mormonism as a cult. They’ve tried to scare Hispanics and round up illegals to vote. They’ve accused Republicans of anti-Semitism, of hating women, and of wanting to bring back slavery. The one thing none of them have done is actually mention an issue.
What this tells me is that they are desperate. These are not attacks someone makes if they are winning. This is scorched earth with no regard for the consequences or the future. This is a party that knows it will lose and doesn’t care what it does to the political landscape on the way out. Moreover, using these tactics now tells us they see the race as essentially lost right now and are desperate to turn it around before it becomes an obvious and settled fact.
● Media Desperation: Like the Democrats, the MSM is desperate. We see this in several ways. First, despite 80% of their stories about Romney being negative, they have yet to find any attack which will stick. So they keep trying wilder and wilder attacks, which is a sign of desperation and a strategy guaranteed to backfire. Secondly, they avoid talking about Obama like the plague. This is because they know he’s so unpopular that they cannot help him by giving him coverage. Instead, they need to attack Romney.
Indeed, look at the lengths to which they go to talk about anything other than the issues. The Akin controversy is the perfect example of this. Everyone except the hard-core Religious Right have repudiated that troglodyte, yet the MSM continues to cover this incessantly and continues to try to connect Akin to every other Republican. Why do this? Because they have nothing else they can talk about.
Look also at the distortions. There is no mention of real inflation. Unemployment is downplayed. The failing economy is still called “a recovery.” There is no mention that gas prices are higher than they were under Bush, when the media blasted us with the-sky-is-falling stories about gas. Are American troops still dying overseas? The media won’t tell you. How is Obamacare working? Has anyone lost their health insurance? Are doctors still taking Medicare? Have medical costs gone down a single dollar? The media sure doesn’t know. How about too big to fail? Where are the reports about the biggest banks doubling in size under Obama? Did Copenhagen result in any positive change for the environment? Who knows. . . the MSM sure doesn’t.
This is proof the MSM knows Obama is in deep trouble and that they simply can't discuss anything without making it worse.
Obama has already lost this election and the items above prove it. The Democrats know he’s in such desperate trouble that they had to waste all their ammo already, and none of it scored a hit. That means Obama has lost. The MSM is desperate to cover up his tracks and knows they can’t promote him because people don’t like him. That means Obama can’t recover. And the public enthusiasm tells us what even the doctored polls are starting to suggest, the right will turn out in force in November and the left won't.
Barring something truly unusual, this election is over and the only question now is the margin of Romney’s victory.
Thoughts?
P.S. Don't forget, it is Star Trek Tuesday at the film site.
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