The second term of a president is usually when they start trying to define their legacies. Reagan spent his second term consolidating his economic policy and ending the Cold War. Nixon spent his second term destroying his reputation. Carter spent his “second term” giving aid and comfort to anti-Semites the world over. Now, Obama faces the same question. Sadly for him, his legacy is going to be pretty horrible.
It’s always difficult to predict how the next four years will go politically speaking, but some things seem obvious at this point.
● Horrible Economy: The economy is atrocious and it’s not going to get any better. It’s probably the worst economy since the Great Depression. Somewhere around 20 million Americans are unemployed or underemployed. Kids coming out of college are finding no jobs. Minority employment and youth unemployment are soaring. Personal incomes are falling. Prices are soaring. Housing prices are flat or sinking.
This is going to get worse too. For one thing, everything Obama does is bad for the economy. Tax hikes and regulations will keep tripping the economy. The real effects of Obamacare will start to kick in over the next two years as well. The world is tipping back into recession. There is fear that central bankers are being pressured to engage in competitive devaluation to make their economies competitive, which will lead to inflation and falling asset values. Ironically, he’s even standing in the way of the one thing that could turn this around – natural gas.
Obama’s economic legacy will be tens of millions of people unemployed, falling home and assets values, a falling dollar, falling incomes, and a generation of people put onto a lower economic track.
● Fiscal “Bankruptcy”: The US won’t go bankrupt. That’s a ridiculous idea. The US has too many assets and generates too much income for that to happen. BUT... the government has pushed the economy to the limits. The government now takes enough that it’s interfering with the economy. Moreover, about 1/3 of what the government spends is borrowed, and we can’t borrow much more. Essentially, Obama has spent the government to the point that it is incapable of spending more, i.e. “fiscal bankruptcy.” Further, much of the future budget will be wasted on interest payments. Also, because Obama failed to address entitlements, they will slowly eat the budget. In effect, Obama has destroyed the government’s ability to act.
● Obamacare: Obama’s obvious legacy is Obamacare, but what kind of legacy is it? It was supposed to make sure that 42 million Americans got insured. I’ll bet you the numbers don’t budge. Millions of Americans will now find it harder to get insurance as their employers drop their plans. Doctors are leaving the profession – making the existing doctor shortage worse. It does nothing to control out-of-control costs. It will weaken Medicare and make it harder for old people to find doctors. It will push numerous states to bankruptcy because it expands Medicaid. Obamacare’s legacy will be failure. People will be less and less happy with the medical system and all the statistics will get worse. Eventually real reform will be needed, which will include completely replacing Obamacare.
● Way Too Big To Fail: Obama signed into law a banking reform bill that was little more than a declaration that the largest banks were free to eat up all the smaller banks. They are doing that. Right now, the biggest banks are much bigger than they were when everyone worried about too big to fail, and they are getting bigger all the time. And thanks to the Democrats, we are backing more of their risks than ever. Obama’s legacy in this regard will be the creation of a mega-opoly of banks who will dominate the economy and hold taxpayers hostage.
● Global Warming: Obama wanted the US to become an international environmental leader. That didn’t happen. In fact, Obama’s failed push to take charge seems to have destroyed the international environmentalist movement. Obama went to Copenhagen, hoping to impose liberal environmentalism on the world by treaty. Instead, Brazil, India, Russia, China and South Africa seized the agenda and all but killed international environmentalism. He also mishandled the carbon debates and failed to assure the public of reforms in the wake of Climategate. The result is that there is no longer any international consensus on anything environmental.
● War: Obama has been the most bellicose President we’ve had since. . . well, ever. He “ended” the already-ended war in Iraq, but then dramatically expanded the Afghan War into Pakistan, where the CIA is using drones to hit thousands of targets. Obama also bombed Yemen and Somalia. He sent combat troop to Uganda and the navy to fight pirates. He bombed Libya. He will soon be involved in Mali and Syria. He’s been fighting an informal war with Iran, which I suspect will become a shooting war soon enough. Obama’s eight years will be one continuous undeclared war after another.
Moreover, despite screams of “war crimes” when Bush did it, Obama has not closed Gitmo. He tried to make terrorist suspects into “non-persons” so they had fewer rights than even Bush gave them. He hasn’t stopped “illegal renditions” or most of the things he once called “torture” (except waterboarding). Obama is using drones all over the place and doing so under policies that are legally questionable – “signature strikes,” which are like “racial profiling with extreme prejudice” where the CIA doesn’t actually know who they are targeting.
Obama’s legacy is that the US will come to be seen as a pretty murderous country that shoots first and bombs anyone it doesn’t like.
● Polarized Electorate: One of the things all great Presidents have is the ability to get people on the other side to respect them and people in the middle to follow them. FDR, JFK, Reagan, Clinton all had strong, broad-based support and were remembered fondly. Obama won’t have that to help his legacy. Obama has polarized the electorate beginning the day after he took office, and his despicable re-election campaign made that worse. Now he’s talking about becoming hyper-partisan. Good luck.
Obama will fall into the category of Nixon, Johnson and Carter. He will be reviled except for a small base of supporters. The right hates him as a tyrant, the left hates him as a corporate-crony sellout who won’t actually push liberal/progressive policies. Even among his supporters, there is lots of evidence that he’s not liked personally.
This is not a legacy to be proud of, but I think this is the legacy Obama will have.
Thoughts?
It’s always difficult to predict how the next four years will go politically speaking, but some things seem obvious at this point.
● Horrible Economy: The economy is atrocious and it’s not going to get any better. It’s probably the worst economy since the Great Depression. Somewhere around 20 million Americans are unemployed or underemployed. Kids coming out of college are finding no jobs. Minority employment and youth unemployment are soaring. Personal incomes are falling. Prices are soaring. Housing prices are flat or sinking.
This is going to get worse too. For one thing, everything Obama does is bad for the economy. Tax hikes and regulations will keep tripping the economy. The real effects of Obamacare will start to kick in over the next two years as well. The world is tipping back into recession. There is fear that central bankers are being pressured to engage in competitive devaluation to make their economies competitive, which will lead to inflation and falling asset values. Ironically, he’s even standing in the way of the one thing that could turn this around – natural gas.
Obama’s economic legacy will be tens of millions of people unemployed, falling home and assets values, a falling dollar, falling incomes, and a generation of people put onto a lower economic track.
● Fiscal “Bankruptcy”: The US won’t go bankrupt. That’s a ridiculous idea. The US has too many assets and generates too much income for that to happen. BUT... the government has pushed the economy to the limits. The government now takes enough that it’s interfering with the economy. Moreover, about 1/3 of what the government spends is borrowed, and we can’t borrow much more. Essentially, Obama has spent the government to the point that it is incapable of spending more, i.e. “fiscal bankruptcy.” Further, much of the future budget will be wasted on interest payments. Also, because Obama failed to address entitlements, they will slowly eat the budget. In effect, Obama has destroyed the government’s ability to act.
● Obamacare: Obama’s obvious legacy is Obamacare, but what kind of legacy is it? It was supposed to make sure that 42 million Americans got insured. I’ll bet you the numbers don’t budge. Millions of Americans will now find it harder to get insurance as their employers drop their plans. Doctors are leaving the profession – making the existing doctor shortage worse. It does nothing to control out-of-control costs. It will weaken Medicare and make it harder for old people to find doctors. It will push numerous states to bankruptcy because it expands Medicaid. Obamacare’s legacy will be failure. People will be less and less happy with the medical system and all the statistics will get worse. Eventually real reform will be needed, which will include completely replacing Obamacare.
● Way Too Big To Fail: Obama signed into law a banking reform bill that was little more than a declaration that the largest banks were free to eat up all the smaller banks. They are doing that. Right now, the biggest banks are much bigger than they were when everyone worried about too big to fail, and they are getting bigger all the time. And thanks to the Democrats, we are backing more of their risks than ever. Obama’s legacy in this regard will be the creation of a mega-opoly of banks who will dominate the economy and hold taxpayers hostage.
● Global Warming: Obama wanted the US to become an international environmental leader. That didn’t happen. In fact, Obama’s failed push to take charge seems to have destroyed the international environmentalist movement. Obama went to Copenhagen, hoping to impose liberal environmentalism on the world by treaty. Instead, Brazil, India, Russia, China and South Africa seized the agenda and all but killed international environmentalism. He also mishandled the carbon debates and failed to assure the public of reforms in the wake of Climategate. The result is that there is no longer any international consensus on anything environmental.
● War: Obama has been the most bellicose President we’ve had since. . . well, ever. He “ended” the already-ended war in Iraq, but then dramatically expanded the Afghan War into Pakistan, where the CIA is using drones to hit thousands of targets. Obama also bombed Yemen and Somalia. He sent combat troop to Uganda and the navy to fight pirates. He bombed Libya. He will soon be involved in Mali and Syria. He’s been fighting an informal war with Iran, which I suspect will become a shooting war soon enough. Obama’s eight years will be one continuous undeclared war after another.
Moreover, despite screams of “war crimes” when Bush did it, Obama has not closed Gitmo. He tried to make terrorist suspects into “non-persons” so they had fewer rights than even Bush gave them. He hasn’t stopped “illegal renditions” or most of the things he once called “torture” (except waterboarding). Obama is using drones all over the place and doing so under policies that are legally questionable – “signature strikes,” which are like “racial profiling with extreme prejudice” where the CIA doesn’t actually know who they are targeting.
Obama’s legacy is that the US will come to be seen as a pretty murderous country that shoots first and bombs anyone it doesn’t like.
● Polarized Electorate: One of the things all great Presidents have is the ability to get people on the other side to respect them and people in the middle to follow them. FDR, JFK, Reagan, Clinton all had strong, broad-based support and were remembered fondly. Obama won’t have that to help his legacy. Obama has polarized the electorate beginning the day after he took office, and his despicable re-election campaign made that worse. Now he’s talking about becoming hyper-partisan. Good luck.
Obama will fall into the category of Nixon, Johnson and Carter. He will be reviled except for a small base of supporters. The right hates him as a tyrant, the left hates him as a corporate-crony sellout who won’t actually push liberal/progressive policies. Even among his supporters, there is lots of evidence that he’s not liked personally.
This is not a legacy to be proud of, but I think this is the legacy Obama will have.
Thoughts?
61 comments:
a great post, Andrew. He does have the media on his side, ever willing to try and protect him. But . . . time will tell if, or when they turn on him. As far as "worst economy since the Great depression? Well, lets just see. I'm not yet convinced we might equal it. I am not optimistic. FDR went 16 years because when people are really hurting, they want someone (big govt?) to help them and take care of them. He should have been so easy to beat,and yet? . . . we don't have anybody stepping up to offer an alternative. I hope, but am not optimistic, that as it worsens, somebody with an ounce of charisma can step up with a better story.
oops, I meant I haven't been convinced we won't equal the G.D.
Jed, There's a really good chance we will equal it. If you look at some long term charts of the DOW, you will see that we're mimicking the Great Depression pretty closely. That means we're going to keep crashing. The same charts show that we're in the middle of a ten+ year bear market.
In terms of the media, I don't think they can protect him nor can they generate a legacy for him because the legacy will be created by how people feel about these years and by the amount of effort it takes to fix what he's done.
I think you forget Obama's most important legacy. He got a politically "authentic" black man elected as a two term President. Ironically, instead of using his position to reduce racial tensions, he's acerbating them for his political purposes.
K, I thought about that, but I wasn't sure how to score it. I think there's a disconnect going on. On the one hand, I would argue that blacks are more polarized against whites than they've been at any time in my lifetime except right after the LA Riots.
But on the other hand, I get the sense that whites have decided "enough of this" and no longer give the cry of "racism" and credence. In fact, I'm getting a sense that whites have said, "look, you got a President now shut the hell up."
So I'm not sure what to make of this. Does this mean racial tension is worse or better?
Question for Andrew:
Sometime soon, Obamacare is going to be in trouble due to the fines or taxes or whatever being small enough that people will simply pay the tax every year - which is far smaller than health care ins - and only join up when they get sick.
When that happens, the Insurance companies will have to raise rates to astronomical levels or go bankrupt. Then it will be up to the Republicans to vote to raise Obamacare taxes and therefore share the blame.
What do you think the Republicans do at that point? Refuse to pass additional Obamacare taxes and let the mess fester while being blamed for the problem by the MSM or compromise and fix the problem - thereby cementing Obamacare in place?
K, Without a doubt, the Republicans will compromise to "fix it." That's their nature. They are simply incapable of letting bad things happen for political purposes.
Plus, since this would help insurance companies (rather than people), the Republicans will probably be the ones proposing the "fix." Can't let donors get hurt, can we?
That said, I think Obamacare is messed up beyond the point of a simple fix. I think it's such a clusterfudge that they will have no choice but to completely revamp it. And my guess is that what they will ultimately do will look like the old system only with more taxes and some worthless government-offered insurance.
Awesome post as always!
Well, Obama is the first black president! That itself is a major achievement, I guess... And he plays basketball, too. I love basketball... lol
Snape, LOL! Yes, playing basketball and drinking beer at summits. Who could ask for anything more? :)
I'm glad you enjoyed the post. Like I said, it's hard to predict, but this strikes me as what the present/future hold.
I agree with pretty much everything in the article (thought I will be deeply shocked if the next Republican presidential nominee gets to Obama's 'left' in terms of warfighting) but I disagree with the claims in the comments that blacks are polarized against whites.
Republicans of any color just don't win big chunks of the black vote. At a national level, no Republican has crossed 15% since the CRA, and Gore and Kerry each got 90%, (a bigger chunk than Clinton, who once upon a time was dubbed the first black president).
Andrew.....My thoughts:
The Economy: Will continue to limp along. O knows his future lies with the oil we have found through fracking. This will be the "fuel" for the economy that will keep us limping along. Hell, he's already taken credit for the oil boom...witness his statement during the campaign. "I've approved more oil leases than any other president."
Fiscal Bankruptcy: Already there. I sure wish someone...hello..Buehler?...would simply state that we are borrowing money to pay off the interest on money we previously borrowed. This is unsustainable.
Obamacare: Exactly! Something that can't work won't work. People are starting to realize this now. Of course, those without the means to pay for healthcare will still get "free" healthcare. I'd like to see more of these "Minute Clinics" that are popping up all around. I believe most of our "healthcare" issues can be handled by RN's anyway, so the loss of GP's will be absorbed. We'll probably end up with Doctor Specialists and then RN's handling just about everything else.
Too Big Too Fail: Again, here I think we will start to see financial institutions like "WalMart." They will start being their own banks and take to investing their own money like the big banks used to do form them. We will probably end up seeing a National Bank run by Goldman Sachs, that will handle most foreign investments and gov't run plans. The feds and media already have their sites on BAC (Bank of America) so at least one big bank won't be too big to fail.
Global Warming: Done. Will continue to be a global scam enriching the elite few. If you can't prove anything, then you can scam each other with fears of catastrophe and "studies" and panels studying the causes of the catastrophe, all the while fleecing the masses and enriching a few chosen leaders.
War: "In the end what does it really matter?" If a Dem is Preezy then nothing is criticized and all is perfect. Above the fold headline in today's WaPo - "Clinton Delivers forceful defense on Benghazi" Imagine a similar headline replacing Clinton with Bush and Benghazi with Iraq. Americans are tired of war and are ripe for Commander Zero to decimate our military. We'll still be the baddest "Global force for good" on the block, but our military growth days are done. How else are we going to pay for ZeroCare?
Polarized Electorate: Yeah...so? Until we get an effective opposition party with our own "voice" out there, we will be the resistance, the Browncoats, the Jedi, fighting the Empire. I can live with that. I aim to misbehave anyway, right? Can't misbehave when you agree and are part of all that is going on.
So, good article. We need to be realistic about what the future holds for this country. The halcyon days are over (as if they were ever here) and we must prepare ourselves and our heirs for the "new normal." We live in a dangerous world, and the fight has always gone on between freedom and tyranny. If we don't do it, who else is? I consider myself part of the human struggle. The little guy taking on the bully. The rebels fighting the power. We're just seeing the latest version playing out in front of our eyes. I think the "American Experiment" was lost generations ago. It really was utopian in its goals. Once men with power began abusing that power, as they always have and always will, our form of government was doomed. The Founders knew this and tried to put in place mechanisms to prevent it, but nature wins out....always, and we are left with Obama and his minions with their hands on the throttle and their boots on the necks of those they consider the enemy.
Sorry for the rant.....what was in the coffee this morning?!
I don´t know. Our view of Presidents is often divorced from their actual accomplishments. See FDR, JFK. You are probably, mostly, hopefully right, but let me play the devil´s advocate here (the devil being BO).
1. War
I am convinced that BO´s image will not suffer because if wars, killings and Gitmo. Instead, the US will take the hit.
Domestically, it´s like Fast & Furious. No one really cares ... now. The whole anti-war, anti-torture shebang was a tactic to get liberal Democrats elected. We know better than to take liberals at their word. It was always about domestic politics, though it damaged our image abroad and played politics with our security and soldiers´ lives.
Obama kills more because he wants to shore up his right flank and make sure that his domestic agenda isn´t undercut by questions about prisoner treatment and inconvenient acts of terrorism (and when they happen, it´s not terrorism). If you ask them, some moderate Liberals may say they don´t like it but it is meaningless. They love BO anyway.
The foreign establishment is exactly the same. Now that a left-wing President is in office, they don´t care either. In the last four years, BO has been very popular in many countries even as they become more anti-American.
2. Fiscal bankruptcy
The consequence of fiscal bankruptcy is not to constrain the government´s ablity to act. It is that reforms are becoming inevitable sooner, but probably not before BO leaves office.
What he made inevitable, alas, is that these reforms will have to include higher taxes on the middle class and that changes to entitlements will have to be more brutal. Which means that a generation of working, tax paying people is even more screwed. When it eventually happens, will it become clear to everyone that Obama had a big part in it? Historical experience says no.
3. The economy
The numbers don´t lie but they don´t determine perceptions. They sure didn´t hurt FDR´s legacy.
I read somewhere that during the entire Bush presidency, a steady share of about about 50% of people polled said that the economy was already bad or that recession was around the corner. You know how good the actual numbers were. The meaning of "sucks" is subjective. I blame the media, and the media will never turn on Obama.
The question is also, who is hurting? Even during the great depression, millions of people with steady jobs did wonderful. And Washington, Hollywood and SiIicon Valley have never had it better. I´m sure you can find many regular people who will agree that the economy isn´t doing well, but as long as they vote on vanity and bullshit issues, they obviously don´t think THEY have a problem.
The bitter truth is that people who don´t fear unemployment do not care about the unemployed. And countries which used to have full employment now have had 8-10% for decades. They simply got used to it. Especially if it hits mostly blue collar males.
"First Black President" will be the entirety of Obama's legacy, though I can't be sure where he'll place in the "Black History Month" pantheon. ;-) In any case, that would be sufficient to gloss over his failures, but with no other accomplishments to point to, he'll end up a one-line entry in the history books.
On a related note, anyone notice how the moment Obama finished his inaugural speech, the media was willing to acknowledge that he's not a centrist but a liberal, saying that he laid out "an explicitly progressive agenda" and so on? Yeah, thanks a lot for just finding this out, guys!
T-Rav - Yes, I noticed. I guess this is Obama "more flexible".
Oh, and, I'm sorry, but how will we be able to tell when the REAL "hyper-partisan" stuff starts?
Oh, and not to depress anyone, but we have 4 years of this to look forward to...
Anthony, I agree about the military stuff. The next Republican will happy promise to bomb the world into oblivion.
On blacks, I can only report what I see and I see a real "us versus them" attitude coming from the black community these days, much more so than I have in the past. You would know better than I would, but I see it everywhere. I've never seen blacks being more separate and more open "anti-white" than I have in the past.
Blech.
So...to address the thrust of the article...I think Obama's legacy will be exactly what the left has been selling all along. To wit:
* The first African American President
* Took on a corrupt Washington establishment and transformed it into one fairer and more compassionate to the people who were held down by the biased and racist
* Provided the first national health care program, but it's success was thwarted by the greedy insurance companies
* Ended the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and improved America's standing in the world due to his unique background and international outlook
* Provided innovative and forward looking solutions to the greatest economic crisis the country had ever seen.
* Presided over the most hostile, divisive Congress ever. Showed himself as a unique politician in that he worked with both parties to address and decrease the rancor and partisanship in Washington
* The country's greatest energy champion who led the quest for American energy independence by looking for all forms of energy in order to make the country less dependent on foreign energy
* The greatest orator the Presidency has ever experienced. Audiences would literally faint at the sight and sound of him.
* The first "Man of the People" President since Andrew Jackson. Worked tirelessly to heal the racial animosities that have defined the country since its inception
Need I go on?
Patriot, That must be been powerful coffee! LOL!
I think limp is the right word for the economy. We have technically been in a recovery for some time, but it's anemic and it produced no jobs. That is tipping back over into recession in Europe and China and we'll follow that. But it would feel much different because there was no new hiring to now fire. Basically, this or a little worse will be "the new normal" for the rest of his administration -- unless the central banks do start the devaluing, which would be really bad.
We are borrowing money to pay interest. That's the point we're at. And as entitlements grow, there just won't be any money to spend on anything else.
I think you're right about the RNs, and I think they will try import doctors from place like India. That will be very unpopular here, in India, and in Europe (which is already doing that).
I think you'll see a handful of big banks running the financial system.
On the war stuff, I think you're going to see a change. The love affair the rest of the world has had with "not Bush" is going to fade once they realize we have Mega-Bush in black face. As for he public, I just see no support for any more war. Poll numbers show a real change of mind on that and I think both parties make a mistake if they don't see that.
On the American Experiment, I think that's always been a bit of a myth. You can look back at any age and see the government being much more abusive and controlling than people realize. I honestly don't think now is any worse than it was in the 1970s. I think the bigger problem is that all of this has reached a point here it weighs down the economy and grinds things to a halt.
rlaTWX, Very well said! :D
El Gordo, On the war stuff, it's hard to say. You're right that the international community is leftist and they will excuse a lot. But (1) I think you're already seeing them worn out. The Euros (except France) are fleeing from international conflicts and are cutting their budgets. (2) The anti-war groups simply can't survive if they can't fund raise -- that's what they do for a living. So they will start up again soon. (3) As hypocritical as liberals are, there are some limits and I can't see them saying all of this is ok and then flipping right around. And if they do, I see it discrediting them. (3) I think Iran will be the real problem, it will become Obama's Iraq.
On the economy, the problem is that the public at large doesn't believe things are getting better. The public at large keeps reporting that things are worse than they really are. And the fact that the elite are doing well isn't going to make them feel any better. The middle class is getting killed. Incomes are crashing everywhere except the top. There are few employment opportunities, so even if you have a job you can't get a better one. Home values are still falling in most places. People's kids are doing much worse than they are. Those are the things that make people form their judgements, and the media can't change that perception.
Don't forget, Obama got 9 MILLION fewer votes than he did in 2008. That's the real verdict on Obama. The public is not on his side -- the problem is they aren't on our side either.
As for fiscal bankruptcy, they really have reached a point where they just can't spend. This will be a problem for them. And the tax hike and entitlement cuts will come sooner than expected. The only problem is that the Republicans are busy trying to claim the credit for the pain.
tryanmax, My guess is that Obama will have a bigger place in the history books than that. I suspect he'll be seen as the last president of the "Second Gilded Age" - Clinton, Bush, Obama.
I also suspect he'll be the guy who starts the Iran War, which might not end so well. I suspect Iran has learned the lesson of prior wars and will launch attacks outside the Iran, which is something the public is absolutely not ready for.
T-Rav, The thing is, the left bought the idea that Obama needed to act centrist until his second term. Now that he doesn't face a need to get elected, they think he's free to finally be his true self. So expect them to push hard for a hard left turn.
This is actually kind of funny if you think about it. First, it means they accept that he's entitled to personal gain before political gain. Secondly, they forget that just because he doesn't need re-election doesn't mean the House and Senate don't. Third, they completely misunderstood why he didn't act more leftist in his first term -- he's a crook, not an ideologue.
Bev, The hyper-partisan stuff will be legislative. It will be exactly what you are seeing. Obama will push something for each of his interest group supporters.
His push for women in combat now is part of that. So is his (fake) push on gun control. Look for him to extend benefits to gays by executive order soon. Look for a push on affirmative action. Look for further carbon regulations. And look for his rhetoric to get really, really nasty.
nasty(er)
Patriot, That will be the sale pitch. But I don't see any takers.
The public's not buying it because they know better. The left isn't going to buy it because they aren't going to get the things they want. The right has derangement syndrome, they wouldn't buy it if it was true. Foreigners will buy it until he finally wears them out -- probably Iran.
The media simply doesn't have the power you think. They no longer control the narrative. And actual popularity matters. Why do you think the Democrats never mention LBJ? Because the public hated him. The media couldn't save Jimmy Carter. They couldn't destroy Reagan. They couldn't save Clinton until the Republicans went on a jihad. The media is not as power as conservatives want to believe it to be.
As I mentioned above, 9,000,000 fewer people voted for Obama - a 13% drop in support for him. That's not a show of support. Reagan added 11 million (about 25%), Clinton added 3 million (about 8%)
I didn't realize that Obama got that many fewer votes. That's really damning for the Republicans then isn't it?
Kelly, Yes, it is. It puts the lie to this idea that the electorate is stupid. What it tells us is that the Republicans are turning people off. This should have been an easy election for the Republicans.
AndrewPrice said:
Anthony, I agree about the military stuff. The next Republican will happy promise to bomb the world into oblivion.
On blacks, I can only report what I see and I see a real "us versus them" attitude coming from the black community these days, much more so than I have in the past. You would know better than I would, but I see it everywhere. I've never seen blacks being more separate and more open "anti-white" than I have in the past.
------
Artur Davis moved to the center during the Democratic primary and lost the black vote to a white liberal.
My district's rep was once a guy named Albert Wynn who was liberal by most measures, but was willing to work across the aisle on ocassion. That was enough for him to lose the 2008 primary (a narrow loss but still a loss) to Donna Edwards (also black), who accused him of being too cosy with Republicans.
Only time will tell, but I suspect that the black vote for the next Democratic presidential nomineee won't dip appreciably below Obama's total.
Anthony, But at the same time, I'm seeing more and more comments from people like Jason Whitlock and that guy ESPN finally fired, who are openly anti-white without any denunciations from the black community. I'm seeing comments at blogs and on film from blacks who are displaying an severe US v. Whites attitude when it comes to whites. I know this is all anecdotal, but I get a much nastier vibe from blacks today than I did a decade ago.
I think attitude is a hard thing to quantify, but I get the sense that blacks really have set themselves apart more right now than ever in my life.
It's the same way I can't quantify the shift in white attitudes, but I can tell you it's happened. Whites no longer worry about being called racist, which they did until Obama got elected.
I had no idea Obama had lost nine million votes. That's fascinating and it really does point out that we blew it big time.
As for his legacy, I agree with you. I think the MSM will spin him as hard as they can, but it won't matter because people make up their own minds based on their own experience, not on what the media tells them and right now people are just not happy.
Ellen, That should be an eye-opener to people who think the public voted FOR Obama. They didn't. They simply ran away from the Republicans in greater numbers than they ran away from Obama.
Thoughts?
Why do I keep remembering the line from I think Plutarch Lives of the Noble romans..
"And on that day Caligula knew he wasn't a God"
I think the Obama worship will turn 180 degrees on a dime. Everyone will just wake up as if from a drug induced coma and OBama will be wondering who put the knife in his back figuratively speaking
Indi, Probably true. I get a real sense the left is not in love with him and they will not be satiated with undelivered promises.
Andrew, from your lips to God´s ear.
It could be instructive to see how the Bush presidency is seen over the years. By 2008, they had turned him into a monster. The media were powerful enough to manage that.
I think if the caricature sticks to Bush, then they can also whitewash Obama´s atrocities.
For all his mistakes - and they can be exaggerated - W was as decent a fellow as you can find in politics. His reelection was no mistake. If only he had been allowed to reform social security.
By the way, I despise these conservatives who now disown him for being "just as bad". They´re liberals to me.
El Gordo, Bush caused his own problems by not fighting back. He let the left and the media define him. It's not hard to define someone when they let you.
As for his legacy, I doubt it will change. I see no driver to make that happen.
*sigh*
Koshcat, The good thing about this is that it means there isn't a new generation that's ready to worship Obama's policies for the next 50 years. He will just pass into history and everyone will move forward.
Maybe...
Or more likely many will say that he didn't go far enough. Similar to what some idiots claim about communism. Over 100 million people killed but it just wasn't given enough of a chance to work.
This is interesting. It's from Bobby Jindal and it's exactly the things we've been saying here:
Jindal worries that the GOP is becoming a party obsessed with austerity more than growth and focused too much on trying to “manage” government better than Democrats. He called the fiscal cliff, the debt ceiling and Joe Biden’s gun control task force “sideshow traps” that distract from bigger issues.
“We think if we can just unite behind a proposal to cut the deficit and debt, if we can just put together a spreadsheet and a power point and a TV ad, all will be well,” he said. “It’s a terrible debate. It’s a debate fought entirely on our opponents’ terms.
“If our vision is not bigger than that, we do not deserve to win,” he added.
The speech ended with a call for Republicans to make seven changes, including: stop looking backward, compete for every single vote (“the 47 percent and the 53 percent”), reject identity politics, stop being “the stupid party” and “stop insulting the intelligence of voters.”
“If this election taught us anything, it is that we will not win elections by simply pointing out the failures of the other side,” he said. “We must boldly paint the picture of what America can be, of just how incredibly bright America’s future can be.”
Koshcat, Some will, no doubt. So what?
Obama got less than 20% of the public to vote for him, and if you want to believe that those 20% are so invincible that the other 80% of us are finished, why even bother paying attention to politics at all?
More Jindal:
"Today’s conservatism is completely wrapped up in solving the hideous mess that is the federal budget, the burgeoning deficits, the mammoth federal debt, the shortfall in our entitlement programs…even as we invent new entitlement programs. We seem to have an obsession with government bookkeeping," Jindal said. "This is a rigged game, and it is the wrong game for us to play."
He added: "We as Republicans have to accept that government number crunching—even conservative number crunching—is not the answer to our nation’s problems. ... Balancing our government’s books is not what matters most. Government is not the end all and be all."
Jindal went on to prescribe a message for the GOP that prioritizes economic growth over cutting federal spending.
"Instead of worrying about managing government, it’s time for us to address how we can lead America to a place where she can once again become the land of opportunity, where she can once again become a place of growth and opportunity," he said. "We should put all of our eggs in that basket as conservatives and Republicans."
One final note. The problem that conservatism faces is clear if you check out the comments of the mouthbreathers at HotAir (LINK).
It's a buffet of ignorance, idiocy and hatred.
Another good Jindal quote:
"By obsessing with zeroes on the budget spreadsheet, we send a not-so-subtle signal that the focus of our country is on the phony economy of Washington, instead of the real economy out here in Charlotte, and Shreveport, and Cheyenne."
The issue is this what you have been talking about. Hanging on to the idea that Obama will destroy the brand so thoroughly that we can just walk in and govern for several years without changing our ways. I guess my response is so what Obama is an idiot and a stinky part of the lower end of the body, our crap currently stinks worse.
Reading this makes me feel good for a very short time; much like a sugar high. Reading what Jindal said initially makes me feel bad but with time and reflection I actually have more hope. There is someone out there who actually wants to make things better.
tryanmax, I saw that and I liked it a lot too. But if you want to feel depressed follow the link to HotAir. You will see more anger poured out for Jindal than they usually pour out on Obama.
Jindal isn't even saying much -- (1) stop insulting the electorate, (2) block grant to the states... gets a truly vile response.
Koshcat, I feel the same way. The Jindal stuff gives me hope that somebody gets it and is trying fix our problem. The fact the problem is so bad in the first place, and that conservatives are so angry about even admitting a fix is needed, is depressing.
As for attacking Obama, I think it is important to point out his flaws, but I agree completely that this is not the answer. As you say, "our crap currently stinks worse," and fixing that is the only thing that really matters for us.
What I'm hoping people get from articles like this is that Obama is not this invincible forces. I'm just hearing too much "we can't win because they cheat" or "we can't win because the country loves them." I'm trying to point out that's just not true, that all is not lost, but that we need to improve our own image. I don't think conservatives want to believe any of that right now. And when I hear guys like Rush calling the voters "low information voters" and selling this line that they were all bought, it frustrates me because it perpetuates the idea that conservatives should withdraw into a bubble because we can't win.
Gotta love Jindal. About the only thing giving me hope now is the group of smart, successful conservative governors.
I always thought the vaunted conservative base was stupid for rejecting guys like Mitch Daniels or Tim Pawlenty. Anyone can pander to "the base". But he who governs a blue or purple state or city conservatively, gets conservative results and is re-elected, shall be a conservative hero in my book. Conservatively speaking.
Andrew, I like to check out Hot Air but they attract a bad sort of commenter, mostly. However I believe that many of the reflexive shouters of "Squish! RINO!" would like the speech if they actually bothered to read the whole thing. Which of course they haven´t done.
El Gordo, Agreed. The governors are giving me hope. They are coming up with real ideas on lots of issues and I think they also have the right attitude. They get that you need to win people over and not just hope the other side turns them off.
I wish we had paid more attention to Pawlenty and Daniels rather than the Washington crowd -- Newt, Santorum, Ron Paul. Those guys offered nothing except the usual pandering. We need to get smarter about finding competent, capable candidates instead of looking for flashy panderers.
You're right about HotAir. I couldn't help but notice that the comments about Jindal are both ignorant and offensive. They clearly did not hear the speech and they don't have any idea what he's done or what he's saying... they've just decided he's a moron, an idiot and a RINO. They also still seem to beating the "we only lost because Romney was RINO" drum.
Yeah, I saw the Hot Air comments. I don't even know what to make of it b/c comments are so disparate. If I'm reading it right, Jindal is a sell-out RINO just like Romney, who sucks b/c he lost the presidential race even though he ran the perfect conservative campaign which should win but people are stupid, except for the true conservatives who stayed home on election day b/c they saw through Romney's phony conservatism so, in short, Jindal's problem is that he's trying to be more like Romney when instead he should try to be more like Romney.
tryanmax, I saw the same thing. The attacks were irrational and contradictory and basically the attack was "he's just like Romney," without any clear idea why they didn't like Romney except he's an undefined RINO.
My personal favorite was the attack that we need someone who isn't part of the Washington Establishment... unlike Jindal. Hmm.
Basically, they are idiots who are throwing a tantrum and they just wants to whine.
tryanmax, that sums it up perfectly. Now my head hurts.
Our confused conservative friends need to relax a bit. All they need to know is this: The hard left hates Jindal with an unexplicable intensity. They will hate him even more for this speech.
It is fascinating, about liberals hating Jindal.
I mean, they claim to like smart, accomplished people with a diverse background. Now look at Jindals cv. He is everything they said about Obama, except for real. More proof that you cannot take them at their word.
"My personal favorite was the attack that we need someone who isn't part of the Washington Establishment... unlike Jindal. Hmm."
A good sentiment, applied in a way that rips a hole in space-time.
But over time you just hear everything. I remember Gingrich supporters calling Romney an insider. Because their guy has nothing to do with "Washington". Nope. Where is that? Never been there.
El Gordo, I think the left hates Jindal because he's a minority and he got off the reservation. I think they see him as dangerous because he might give other minorities ideas.
I definitely agree that bringing in someone from outside the Washington Establishment is the way to go. Unfortunately, our side seems to be really bad at spotting those people. As you note, somehow Romney was seen as an insider and Santorum's supporters thought Santorum wasn't. It boggles the mind.
Yes. I wish Rubio had become governor of Florida. So far he´s ok, but the air in the Senate ... does things to people.
As far as the left hating Jindal, here's a great example: LINK
El Gordo, What troubles me with Rubio is that I'm not seeing the ideas. He's latched onto immigration reform and he's trying to appeal to Hispanics, which is good, but that's all I'm seeing from him at the moment. I agree that it would have been better if he's been governor and gotten a chance to actually run a complete government.
And don't get me wrong, I don't dislike him at all -- I really do like him, I just wish there was more to him at this point.
Wow, nasty.
I get what you are saying and agree. I think we are saying basically the same thing.
I read the Hot Air article and thought it was ok so I wasn't sure what you were to referring to...until I read the comments. There are a few that are trying to start the conversation that you have, but most won't have anything to do with it. The rest of the comments I can't get the picture of an overweight guy in a wife-beater holding a Pabst out of my head.
Koshcat, I think we are saying the same thing. :)
At HotAir, yes, the article is fine. I have no problem there... but the comments. Wow. And you're right that a few of the commenters seem to be trying to start the conversation, but the rest not only don't want to hear it, they want to attack anyone and everyone. There's an amazing amount of anger there and it's directed all over the place. It's totally unfocused and unsupported.
Your comment about the guy in the wife-beater made me laugh, by the way, but sadly, I agree. You get the feeling these are just jerks looking to make themselves feel important.
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