● Trump could have wrapped things up last night, but he didn't. Ohio left a slight glimmer of hope for the Rebel Alliance.
● I think Florida said it all though. Trump has gone from a 30% candidate to a steady 40% candidate. He's still growing and will be a 50% candidate soon.
● The only reason Cruz was close in North Carolina and Missouri was evangelicals (plus the states surrounding Texas, like Missouri, have been best for Cruz). In the big states, Cruz remains a distant third place candidate. And there are few "good" states left for Cruz. Kasich has better states coming up.
● Kasich won Ohio, but that was his own state. I had thought Trump might take it and win it all last night, but he didn't. I suspect this is the best Kasich will ever do, however, and he didn't cross 50%. In any event, Kasich and Cruz stay in the race for a bit.
● I think Rubio fading helped Kasich. So does this mean that the new Rubio-Kasich vote will beat Trump? No. Florida and Illinois show us that. Trump is drifting above 50% soon and that's the end.
● At this point, either Cruz needs Kasich to leave the race and then needs to get around 70% of the Kasich/Rubio voters (highly unlikely) or Kasich needs Cruz to leave and he needs to get 90% of Cruz's voters and 100% of Rubio's voters. I don't think either is possible, given human nature, or the history of this election.
Oh yeah, the click bait... I'm endorsing John Kasich as the last sane man in the race. God help us all.
20 comments:
P.S. Feel free to share your Trump related lamentations... or anything else.
Actually the 70% going to Cruz isn't out of the question. There have been couple of surveys where Rubio supporters where asked this question and 75% stated they would go to Trump. I believe about 55% of Kasich voters.
I think for there to be any practical chance, Cruz and Kasich need to come out and state they will run together as Pres and VP.
Koshcat, That might work. But it sounds like Cruz hates Kasich more than he hates Trump.
I suspect that within a couple weeks, Trump will be over 50% and none of this will matter though. Once her starts getting good endorsements, then it's over. And right now, his list of endorsements is improving. He's getting C-list Hollywood stars, but I suspect he's a Tom Brady away from getting A-listers.
I updated the article with some click bait. :)
We sail the ocean blue,
And our saucy ship's a beauty;
We're sober men and true,
And attentive to our duty.
Nice poem; not sure how it fits yet but still nice.
Andrew, can a candidate who drops out direct his delegates to another candidate? For example, could Rubio send his 169 delegates to Cruz giving him 570 to Trumps 673?
It is not that I don't agree with your accessment because this is just something that we have never seen in our lifetime. But I will endorse anyone but Trump. Frankly at this point, I don't really care. But I will live with whoever wins though I may not vote for them. I have survived Obama for nearly 8 years, so...
But I am still hoping for a brokered Convention, just for the fun of it. Oh, btw, Trump has promised riots if he doesn't get the nomination.
Koshcat - it is my understanding that the delegates have to cast their vote for the candidate who won the delegates, but only on the first ballot. If there is no clear winner, then the delegates are free to change their votes. Could be fun.
Trump understands the anger of the GOP (and Independents and some Dems) voters. None of the others do. Ted Cruz preaches to everyone, Kasich is an apologetic candidate and Trump SPEAKS TO AMERICA. I realize that Trump is not a "great communicator", but it would help if the others understood that people want to be spoken to about their concerns rather than preached to. Bernie does that too and for a senile communist, he's doing well.
Koshcat, I haven't looked it up, but my understanding is that what the delegate do is determined by the state. Some states require them to vote as directed, others give them power to make their own choices. But I haven't looked it up in years.
LL, I would agree with you. My concern with Trump is that he's a fraud, but I do agree that he speaks the language of the public who are very upset at the elites who speak down at them from left and right and center.
Agreed on Bernie too, though I think he mainly speaks to the fringe left, whereas Trump speaks to middle America.
Bev, I may have seen something like this before and, if so, that's a bad thing. This reminds me of when Reagan wrestled the GOP from the "country club" Republicans. This time, however, it's a pretty nasty group (white nationalists) taking the GOP away from conservatives.
Koshcat, Here's the answer on the delegates:
GOP rules require delegates to vote for the candidate who won them on the first ballot at the convention. But most state parties release those delegates if their candidate drops out.
If Rubio jumps back in the race, however, he gets to keep his delegates. He can then ask them to support someone else, but they don't have to.
And after the first ballot, everyone is free to vote as they please.
It's this takeover that you and Bev mentioned that has me worried the most about all of this, Andrew. The worse these types get, and the better their odds of taking over the GOP, the more I'm afraid that the Democrats are going to become the permanent majority party and that conservatism will be completely destroyed.
- Daniel
Daniel, It worries me too. I am left with the sense that conservatism is about to be ejected from politics. That would be a very bad thing, especially as the people who killed it will be claiming to be conservatives.
To say the least... What happens then if it does come to pass? Will the US just go farther and farther left until it's not recognizable?
- Daniel
Daniel, I suspect what will happen is nothing. It will probably be an ugly/angry period of impasse between the angry white guy party and the angry minority party until one side changes agendas and wins over the middle.
As always, I hope you're right and that the GOP snaps out of it first.
- Daniel
I think we're more likely to snap out of it because conservatives seem to be fighting back, unlike liberals, and because the left is built as a collection of hate groups who all have their own pet peeves. The right is just throwing a tantrum right now and the more thoughtful will slowly tire of hanging out with the racists.
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