Monday, November 13, 2017

Statistics Prove You Wrong

Let's dispel some wishful thinking masquerading as logic.

The 'Epidemic' of Sexual Harassment: Victimhood wanting women have concluded that because sexual harassment in Hollywood is so much in the news now that they have proven that there is an epidemic/culture of this nationwide. Forget that they've lodged almost no allegations against men who aren't in the entertainment industry or leftist media, so the idea of a nationwide issue is an evasion. But lets look at Hollywood only. Is there even an epidemic in Hollywood? Hardly.

By my count, a grand total of around 20 men have been accused of harassment against women, with about half being in Hollywood. Yet, according to the Bureau of Labor, there are roughly 65,000 working actors and there 135,000 working producers and directors. No doubt there are many more unemployed. Still, just going with those means there are 200,000 actors, producers and directors. A grand total of 20ish have been accused of harassment. That works out to 0.01%. That's not an epidemic. To the contrary, that's evidence that things are going quite well.

If we were being honest, the real story here would be:
(1) How little harassment there is in Hollywood.
(2) How all these men are liberals who have attacked conservatives for hating women and who often disguise themselves as feminists.
(3) How many actresses sold their silence for economic gain.
(4) How many women were raped because the "strong" women under (2) kept their silence.
(5) How many women continue to play the game of claiming to be harassed but refusing to provide details even in an environment where disclose will be without punishment and the damage from failing to disclose is obvious. That's a definite sign of deceit.
(6) How these liberals are now asserting defenses they denied to conservatives.
Essentially, feminists are hoping to create a "movement" to fight this "epidemic" even though it is nothing more than a handful of idiosyncratic predators who were aided by the very feminists who now want to smear innocent people. Shameful.

BTW, this is why this is becoming about gays.

Football and CTE: From the Chicago Tribune:
"At this point, a heavy burden of proof lies on those defending the game. A study of the brains of 202 deceased football players by neurologists at Boston University found markers of chronic traumatic encephalopathy in 99 percent of NFL veterans and 91 percent of those who played only through college.

Skeptics scoff that the brains are unrepresentative because they were donated by those who suspected something was wrong. But the number of documented victims is too large to be dismissed."
The skeptics are right. This is called Adverse Selection, when people with a particular issue all flock to something creating a false impression of what the general population looks like. Each year, there are 1,696 players are on NFL teams (not counting extras). Around 2,880 are on teams in the off-season. So if all of these 202 people came from one year, then yes, that would be big. But we're talking about people who played from over 70 years of football. Conservatively, that means the population is over 60,000 players. 200 divided by 60,000 makes them 0.3% of the population of players. That's statistically insignificant and it's made even less trustworthy because of the adverse selection issue. These 202 players are people who thought they had problems.

If 202 of these 60,000 went to see the doctor because they had butt pain, and each turned out to have rectal cancer, would you conclude that football causes rectal cancer? If you would, then you'd be an idiot. But the number is too large to dismiss... right? Wrong. Again, these people selected themselves out of the population. You cannot draw conclusions about the larger group from this sample.


Koshcat said...

This post intellectually raped multiple feminists today.

AndrewPrice said...

Koshcat, I'm sure it did. But a little perspective might do them good... oh who am I kidding, they've been fighting to get people to reject perspective their whole lives.

Tennessee Jed said...

How true Andrew ... on all counts. As far as sexual predators go, this Roy Moore thing has me wondering if this has become the weapon of choice to take down political opponents. I make no claims as to his guilt or innocence, but it seems easy enough with appropriate resources to bring forth multiple accusations.

On the adverse selection, I sure know what you mean. It applies to coverage for floods. Nobody wants it unless they live in a flood plain, so no insurers want to sell it to them. You could add coverage to all policies to spread the cost, but is that fair to those who don't need it? This is the same issue faced in health insurance. Is it fair to force people to purchase coverage to subsidize a peril only faced by a few?

AndrewPrice said...

Thanks Jed. I find it annoying that they are talking about epidemics and how this is everywhere when the numbers don't even show it to a be problem in Hollywood. We're talking about a handful of bad people among hundreds of thousands of people. I wish more pundits would point this out.

Adverse selection is a problem in a lot of areas, but definitely in insurance. In this case, it just helps people with little grasp of logic to make a case where none exists. "But there are so many!!" Ug.

On Moore, I thought it was a politic hit at first, but the more he dances around it being ok to have sex with teenagers, the more I think he's just a pervert.

tryanmax said...

People aren't equipped to handle large numbers. 10,000 may as well be a million for all intents and purposes. Even honestly deployed numbers can lead to great misunderstanding if they're not carefully conveyed. But then you add a willfully deceptive media that uses numbers to create moral panic and voila! You get little crazy children jangling the keys of the kingdom.

Stacy said...

The younger set won't understand the numbers. They've been raised on common core math, which in my opinion must have been created by two test monkeys in drug lab.

Tennessee Jed said...

Wasn't it Mark Twain who said "there are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics" tryanmax?

AndrewPrice said...


"created by two test monkeys in a drug lab." LOL! Brilliant! :)

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, It was Twain. And since I know you love golf, I will add that he also said: "Golf is a good walk ruined." :)

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, I think that's true. Too many people simply don't understand numbers and they are easily swayed by comments like, "But it's a big number, it must mean something!"

tryanmax said...

Andrew, that's especially true when numbers are used in isolation. It's easy to see that we have an epidemic of gun deaths when you overlook the deadly epidemics of heroin, car accidents, medical malpractice, and swimming pools.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, Definitely. One-sided arguments are easy to win.

AndrewPrice said...

Today we have our first double dipper in the harassment scandal.

Natasha Henstridge, whose first claim struck me as dubious to put it kindly, now claims that Wienstein masturbated in front of her AND Ratner raped her. I don't believe it, but I'm sure the suckers will and that moves her into first place in the victim race. It will be interesting to see how many other now try to out-victim her and claim two or three assaults.

BevfromNYC said...

Seriously, can't wait for the next wave of victims to come forward. No one has accused women for preying on other women yet. That's what I am betting on...but since it doesn't promote the Feminist Victimhood, it will probably be "non-news".

Anthony said...

1) A change in tolerance for sexual misconduct is happening. Elaborate conspiracy theories are popular in some circles make no real sense. The targets are widespread and in many cases its stuff that was known getting a second, harder look. For example Eddie Berganza the guy who edited the Superman and Wonder Woman comics with great success for many years was just fired. There had been public complaints about him for years but he was judged useful enough that DC those who complained wound up leaving because he was not going anywhere (back in those days). But in light of the changing landscape DC recently cut him loose.

While it's true the problem is being overstated that is just the nature of such things. Most things people collectively worry about or fear are overstated. Not that there is nothing to fear but the most common dangers are not the ones that get the most coverage.

Once companies clear out backlogs/readjudicate past cases coverage/public concern ought to subside.

2) As for the NFL I agree more testing is needed but nothing would shock me. Guys with necks bigger than the arms of most people crashing into each other repeatedly at high speeds is probably suboptimal from a health perspective :).

tryanmax said...

Bev, if woman-on-woman harassment claims begin, the floodgates will open. Not because I think there's a secret hoard of overly-aggressive lesbians, but because no one is worse to women than other women. The Crucible will look like Little Women.

tryanmax said...

FWIW, my neck is bigger than my own arm.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, There were a couple of claims against women, but they were quickly pushed aside... doesn't help the theme.

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, I don't see any change at all. A couple predators will be thrown aside as scapegoats, but there seems to be zero will to change anything. There won't even been jail time for the rapists. It's the Pussy-Head Rally all overagain. Lots of whining, claims of "empowerment" and then off to Starbucks as the "movement" disappears into dust.

Anthony said...


I agree the law isn't going to change but corporations coming down harder on sexual misconduct would be a big deal and enough to satisfy the general public but not the fringe. Kind of like police departments coming down harder or squirrelly cops ('You're not going to jail but we don't need your services').

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, Corporations are already pretty strict unless the employee is special. I think you'll see a re-affirmation of "zero tolerance" but it will all be talk. There's just nothing out there for corporations to get harder with -- plus, it doesn't help their image or bottom line to roust these people.

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