Monday, January 12, 2015

Ha Ha Ha Harvard

Wow. Sometimes, it takes the eggheads a long time to catch up to what the rest of us already realize. This seems to be the case with the good liberals at Harvard, who are shocked that Obamacare is going to cost them more. Read these complaints and laugh that a supposedly super-intelligent person could only now be getting this...

The background is this. Harvard has decided that it will make its professors and staff pay more toward their own healthcare because of the changes Obamacare has caused. Not only did many of these same professors advocate for Obamacare, but some even helped draft it. Harvard economist David Cutler, for example, advised Obama on the law in 2008. He now notes that while Harvard remains a very generous employer, the school’s professorial ranks have so far avoided being asked to pick up the added costs Obamacare has imposed... until now.

Others are less sanguine about this.

Harvard Professor of classics, specifically Virgil, Richard Thomas slammed the higher fees he will be paying, calling them “deplorable, deeply regressive, a sign of the corporatization of the university.”

Wow. Ok, let’s start with that. For a highly paid Ivy League college professor to whine about higher costs being “regressive” is delusional. Costs are regressive when they are imposed on poor and middle class people, not people earning six figures and more. Did old Dick not realize when he and his rich friends pimped for this that the heaviest burden would fall on the middle class? Does this 1%er not realize that the rest of us have no sympathy for the tiny percentage increase he needs to bear when the rest of us have been ordered to pony up 20% of our incomes to satisfy his need to feel generous? A-hole.

As for the corporatization of the university, what did old Dick expect? His buddy Obama created a law that handed vast amounts of power to health insurance companies. In so doing, it slaughtered the freedoms of consumers, of doctors, and of hospitals. Should we really feel bad that Harvard has decided to act “more corporate” by passing along costs that Dick and his buds forced onto Harvard and the rest of the nation’s employers?

Mary “Dirty Froggy” Lewis, a professor of French history, has taken the lead against the cost increases, calling them “a salary reduction.” Le shock! Did she not understand that would be the effect when she and her buds imposed this law on the rest of working America?

She goes further too, noting that “this pay cut will be timed to come at precisely the moment when you are sick, stressed or facing the challenges of being a new parent.” Uh, yeah. Was this unclear when you passed this? This law results in a massive monthly pay cut and then, to protect the vested corporate interests, forces you to pony up cold hard cash to meet your deductibles and out of pocket limits right at the point where you get sick. This shouldn’t surprise anyone, and it absolutely shouldn’t outrage the people who pimped for this.

Mary “Still, But Not Deep” Waters, a professor of sociology... whatever that really is, whined: “It seems that Harvard is trying to save money by shifting costs to sick people,” and “I don’t understand why a university with Harvard’s incredible resources would do this. What is the crisis?”

Wrong actually. The law sought to save money by shifting costs onto healthy people who wouldn’t otherwise buy insurance. It only whacks sick people because they are the ones trying to use this largely worthless coverage. As for the resources, Shallow Mary clearly doesn’t understand that when you impose a cost on something like a corporation, it tries to pass that on. Just as Mary would never accept a pay cut to let Harvard increase the salaries of the cleaning staff, Harvard will not take a pay cut just because Mary got a law passed to give her more health benefits.

As for the “what is the crisis” question, shouldn’t we all be asking that? Only 15% of Americans lacked health insurance, and every one of them still had a right to seek treatment. So where was the crisis? Moreover, with only 6.3 million people signing up out of 49 million, it’s pretty clear there never was a crisis. So Mary... STFU.

Ultimately, what’s really hilarious about this is the shock that these nasty changes they imposed on the rest of us 310 million saps are only intolerable now that they are applying to our elite brethren, who assumed they were immune from the consequences of their actions.

Kind of makes you smile, doesn’t it?
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Wednesday, January 7, 2015

A Drawing Has Never Killed Anyone

In light of the yesterday's terrorist attack in France, let's take a moment to reflect. Twelve people were killed including four well-known cartoonists at satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo, who were in a staff meeting. These people spent their talents daring to satirize political leaders, religious leaders, and most importantly showed no fear satirizing Mohammed and Islam. Ironically, Stephane Charbonnier, editor in chief of Charlie Hebdo once quipped that "a drawing has never killed anyone." At this writing, the terrorist are still at large.

This isn't the first time I have written about cartoonists being targeted by Islamic terrorists Remember Molly Norris from her "Draw Mohammed Day" incident in 2010? Her call to pen was in response to a "South Park" episode that was scrapped by weak-kneed television executives who, maybe rightly, feared this kind of scenario.

To keep this all in perspective, here is list of terrorist attacks around the world since 2000. If you make to the bottom of this list, you may notice that attacks are only getting more frequent and the UN responds by declaring that the world must work to curtail...hate speech.

[Note: This list is from Wikipedia and contains only attacks or attempted attacks. There's another long list that contains potential attacks that were stopped before they could carry out any violence.]

2000

Yemen/United States
October 12, 2000 – Attack on the USS Cole in the Yemeni port of Aden. 17 American sailors were killed, 39 injured.

Indonesia
December 24, 2000 – Christmas Eve 2000 Indonesia bombings of churches in eight cities, 18 killed.

2001

United States
September 11, 2001 – 4 planes hijacked by 19 al-Qaeda hijackers: two planes crashed into World Trade Center and one into the The Pentagon. Nearly 3000 dead.

India
December 13, 2001 – Suicide attack on Indian parliament in New Delhi by Pakistan-based Islamist terrorist organizations Jaish-E-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Toiba, aimed at eliminating the top leadership of India and causing anarchy in the country. 7 dead, 12 injured.[12]

Indonesia
October 12, 2002 – 2002 Bali bombings in the tourist district of Kuta on the Indonesian island of Bali, killing 202 people and injuring 240.

2003

Indonesia
August 5, 2003 – 2003 Marriott Hotel bombing in Mega Kuningan, South Jakarta, Indonesia; suicide bomber detonated a car bomb outside the JW Marriott Jakarta lobby, killing 12 and injuring 150

Turkey
November 15–20, 2003 – 2003 Istanbul bombings, killed 57 people and wounded 700.

2004

Spain
March 11, 2004 – Madrid train bombings, killed 191 people and wounded 1,800.

Russia
September 1, 2004 – Beslan school hostage crisis, approximately 344 civilians including 186 children killed.
Indonesia

Australia
September 9, 2004 – 2004 Australian Embassy bombing in Jakarta, Indonesia; suicide bomber exploded a one-tonne car bomb, which was packed into a small Daihatsu delivery van, outside the Australian embassy at Kuningan District, South Jakarta killing 9 and injuring over 150

Netherlands
November 2, 2004 – The murder of Theo van Gogh by Amsterdam-born jihadist Mohammed Bouyeri.

2005

India
July 5, 2005 – Attack on the Hindu Ram temple in Ayodhya, India. 6 dead.

United Kingdom
July 7, 2005 – Multiple bombings in London Underground. 53 killed by four suicide bombers. Nearly 700 injured.

Egypt
July 23, 2005 – Bomb attacks at Sharm el-Sheikh, an Egyptian resort city, at least 64 people killed.

Indonesia
October 1, 2005 – 2005 Bali bombings in Jimbaran & Kuta, Bali, Indonesia; a series of bombings kills at least 20 and injures over 100.

India
October 29, 2005 – 2005 Delhi bombings, India. Over 60 killed and over 180 injured in a series of three attacks in crowded markets and a bus.

Jordan
November 9, 2005 – 2005 Amman bombings. a series of coordinated suicide attacks on hotels in Amman, Jordan. Over 60 killed and 115 injured. Four attackers including a husband and wife team were involved.

2006

India
July 11, 2006 – 2006 Mumbai train bombings, Mumbai. Seven bomb blasts over a period of 11 minutes on the Suburban Railway in Mumbai. 209 killed and over 700 injured.

2007

United Kingdom
February 1, 2007 – The 2007 plot to behead a British Muslim soldier – A group of British Pakistanis in Birmingham, England planned to kidnap and behead a British Muslim soldier in order to undermine the morale of the British Army and inhibit recruitment of Muslims.

Iraq
August 14, 2007 – Qahtaniya bombings. Dour suicide vehicle bombings in two predominantly Yazidi towns in northern Iraq. 796 killed, 1,562 wounded.

2008

India
July 26, 2008 – 2008 Ahmedabad bombings. 56 dead, over 200 injured.

India
September 13, 2008 – Bombing series in Delhi, India. Pakistani extremist groups plant bombs at several places including India Gate, out of which the ones at Karol Bagh, Connaught Place and Greater Kailash explode leaving around 30 people dead and 130 injured, followed by another attack two weeks later at the congested Mehrauli area, leaving 3 people dead.

India
November 26, 2008 – Muslim extremists kill at least 166 people and wound numerous others in a series of coordinated attacks on India's financial capital, Mumbai. The government of India blamed Pakistan based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba and stated that the terrorists killed/caught were citizens of Pakistan, a claim which the Pakistani government first refused but then accepted when given proof. Ajmal Kasab, one of the terrorists, was caught alive.

2009

Somalia
June 18, 2009 – 2009 Beledweyne bombing by Al-Shabaab. 35 dead.

Indonesia
July 17, 2009 – 2009 Marriott and Ritz-Carlton Hotels bombing in Mega Kuningan, South Jakarta, Indonesia; suicide bombers hit the Marriott and 5 minutes later the Ritz-Carlton. 9 killed and 53 injured

United States
November 5, 2009 – Fort Hood shooting, at Fort Hood near Killeen, Texas. 13 dead, 33 injured.

United States
December 23, 2009 - Abdul Farook Abdulmutallab was arrested after Northwest Airlines passengers jumped him to avoid his detonating an explosive device above the city of Detroit.

2010

Russia
March 29, 2010 - Moscow Metro bombings. 40 dead, 102 injured. Caucasus Emirate claimed responsibility.

United States
May 1, 2010 – 2010 Times Square car bombing attempt, New York, New York, USA. Faisal Shahzad, an Islamic Pakistani American who received an American citizenship in December 2009, attempted to detonate a car bomb in Times Square working with the Pakistani Taliban or Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan.

Pakistan
May 28, 2010 – Attacks on Ahmadi Mosques Lahore, Pakistan. Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan claimed attacks on two mosques simultaneously belonging to the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community, killing nearly 100 and injuring many others.

India
December 7, 2010 – 2010 Varanasi bombing, India. 2 dead, 37 injured.

Sweden
December 10, 2010 – 2010 Stockholm bombing, Sweden. killing the bomber and injuring two people.

2011

Russia
January 21, 2011 - Domodedovo International Airport bombing. 37 killed, 173 wounded.

Germany
March 2, 2011 – 2011 Frankfurt Airport shooting, Frankfurt, Germany. 2 dead, 2 injured.

China
July 18, 2011 – 2011 Hotan attack, Hotan, China. A group of 18 young Uyghur men who opposed the local government's campaign against the full-face Islamic veil perpetrated a series of coordinated bomb and knife attacks and occupied a police station on Nuerbage Street, killing two security guards and taking eight hostages. The attackers yelled religious slogans, including ones associated with Jihadism.

Nigeria
December 25, 2011 - Christmas Day bombings were bomb blasts and shootings at churches in Madalla, Jos, Gadaka, and Damaturu. Over 41 people are reported dead.[33]

2012

Iraq
January 5, 2012 Iraq bombings, Baghdad and Nasiriyah, Iraq by Islamic State of Iraq. 73 dead, 149 injured.

Iraq
February 23, 2012 Iraq attacks, Baghdad, Iraq by Islamic State of Iraq. 83 dead, 250+ injured.

Iraq
March 20, 2012 Iraq attacks, Baghdad and at least 9 other cities, Iraq. 52 dead, ~ 250 injured.

France
March 20, 2012 – Toulouse and Montauban shootings in France. 7 dead, 5 injured.

Russia
May 3, 2012 - Makhachkala attack. 14 dead, including 2 suicide bombers, 130 wounded.

Libya/United States
September 11, 2012 – 2012 Benghazi attack on the U.S. Consulate. 4 dead, 11 injured.

2013

India
February 21, 2013. – 2013 Hyderabad blasts, two bomb blasts killed 16 people and injured 119.

United States
April 15, 2013. – Boston Marathon bombings. Two brothers, Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnev, planted two bombs near the finish line of the Boston Marathon. The blast killed 3 and injured 183 others. [Trial of Dzhokhar Tsarnev began on Monday in Boston]

Turkey
May 11, 2013 – Reyhanlı bombings, killed 52 people and wounded 140.

United Kingdom
May 22, 2013 – Two men with cleavers kill British soldier Lee Rigby in Woolwich.[36][37]

Syria
August, 2014. - Islamic State fighters massacred some 700 people, mostly men, of the Shu'aytat tribe in Deir ez-Zor Governorate.[38]

Kenya
September 21, 2013 – Westgate shopping mall attack, 67 killed, 175 wounded.

Pakistan
September 22, 2013 – Peshawar church attack, 80-83 killed, 250 wounded.

Nigeria
September 29, 2013. - Gujba college massacre. 44 students killed by Boko Haram

2014

Nigeria
February 14, 2014. - Borno Massacre at lest 200 killed by Boko Haram[43]

Nigeria
May 20, 2014. - Jos bombings at least 118 killed and over 56 injured[44]

Belgium
May 24, 2014. - Jewish Museum of Belgium shooting. Gunman opened fire at the Jewish Museum in Brussels killing 4 people.

Australia
September 23, 2014. – 2014 Endeavour Hills stabbings. Numan Haider, an Afghan Australian stabbed two counter terrorism officers in Melbourne, Australia. He was then shot dead.

Russia
October 5, 2014 - 2014 Grozny bombing. 5 officers and the suicide bomber, were killed, while 12 others were wounded.

Canada
October 22, 2014 – 2014 shootings at Parliament Hill, Ottawa. Lone attacker shot a soldier at a war memorial and attacked Parliament.

United States
October 23, 2014. – Zale H. Thomson, also known as Zaim Farouq Abdul-Malik, attacked four New York policemen in the subway with a hatchet, severely injuring one in the back of the head and injuring another policeman in the arm before being shot to death by the remaining officers, who also shot a bystander.

Nigeria
November 28, 2014. - Kano bombing. Around 120 people were killed and another 260 injured.

Russia
December 4, 2014. - 2014 Grozny clashes. 26 total dead, including 14 policemen, 11 Jihadist from Caucasus Emirate, 1 civilian

Australia
December 15, 2014. – 2014 Sydney hostage crisis.[disputed – discuss] 2 dead, 4 injured.

Pakistan
December 16, 2014. – 2014 Peshawar school attack. Over 140 people dead, including at least 132 children.

Yemen
December 16, 2014. - Two suicide car bombers rammed their vehicles into a Shiite rebels' checkpoint killing 26, including 16 students.

Nigeria
December 18, 2014. - 2014 Gumsuri kidnappings. Boko Haram insurgents killed 32 people and kidnapped at least 185 women and children.

Syria
December 18, 2014. - Mass grave of 230 Tribesmen killed by Islamic State found in Eastern Syria.

Nigeria
December 22, 2014. – Boko Haram insurgents bombed a bus station in the city of Gombe, killing at least twenty people.

Iraq
December, 2014. - Islamic State militants execute 150 women Iraqi province of Al-Anbar, some of whom were pregnant at the time, who refuse to marry their fighters.

Iraq
December 24, 2014. - A suicide bomber killed 33 people and wounded 55 others in Madaen, about 25 km (15 miles) south of Baghdad.

Somalia
December 25, 2014. - Al-Shabaab (militant group) attack in Mogadishu leaves 9 dead.

Cameroon
December 28, 2014. - Boko Haram attacks village in Cameroon leaving 30 dead.

2015
France
January 7, 2015. - At least 12 killed in shooting at office of French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, Paris.

Any questions?

***UPDATE***: Here is an Op/Ed by Ayaan Hirisi Ali Our Duty Is To Keep Charlie Hebdo Alive that was published on The Daily Beast. If you don't know about her, read up. She is truly an inspiring woman. Most recently, Brandeis University cancelled their plans to give her an honorary degree and revoked their invitation to speak at their commencement because they "...cannot overlook that certain of her past statements are inconsistent with Brandeis University’s core values." After reading this article by Ms Ali, I wonder just exactly what those "core values" might be? Incidentally, DB has also published all of the offending cartoons.
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Thoughts On Cuba

Obama seems to be casting about almost randomly for anything that will create a legacy for him. Too bad for him that he doesn't understand what the American public actually cares about, nor is he apparently capable of working well enough with others to get help in finding a legacy. Oh well. His latest effort, loosening relationships with Cuba, is a good idea, but ultimately pretty meaningless toward his future. Here are my thoughts...

This Is Long Overdue

I get that some conservatives are stuck in the paranoid world of Cold War politics, but loosening relationships with Cuba is something that should have been done long ago. Why? Because history has shown that the only way to change a regime, short of military occupation, is economic liberalization. Yep. Sanctions don't work. For sixty years now, we have done our best to change Cuba's government by imposing strong economic sanctions on Cuba. The idea was to cripple their economy so the government would collapse and capitalists (and mobsters) could return to Cuba and exploit its economic qualities, e.g. cigars, sugar, tourism, gambling, etc. Despite our best efforts, those sanctions resulted in jack... nothing... squat... zip... nada. Why? Because sanctions don't work.

Indeed, look at the history of sanctions and you won't find a single instance where they worked... ever. And the reason they don't work is really quite simple. First, sanctions allow the sanctioned country to create an us versus them mentality which makes enduring the sanctions into a matter of pride and loyalty. That keeps people from attacking the regime over the sanctions. It also lets the sanctioned regime blame their economic and political failures on the sanctioning country. This becomes the perfect excuse for all failures. Third, sanctions just don't work because they will always be overcome by the power of human ingenuity. You will see this time and again. In fact, interestingly, despite a total embargo and continual bombing, Nazi Germany actually produced more war material at the end of the war than it did even at the height of its power.

Heck, conservatives get this when it comes to places like Iran and China etc. Yet, when it comes to Cuba, somehow nostalgia kicks in and seems to make conservatives stupid... "James Bond can't be black! And by God, we'll get those Cubans in another couple hundred years!"

At the same time, economic liberalization has crushed communist regime after communist regime. The communist regimes in the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, China and Vietnam all fell apart when their people got a taste of economic freedom and the joys wealth can bring. Sure, China and Vietnam are still technically run by the communists, but their control is little more than an illusion today, with their leaders understanding that maintaining their massive growth rates are the only thing keeping them from being tossed out by their own people. In the Soviet Union and East Europe, the inability of those regimes to deliver wealth led to their overnight collapses and replacement by regimes that shut down the secret police and opened the stock markets. Was it always perfect? Hardly, but it was fast and furious and fundamentally transforming. Sanctions, on the other hand, never even started the ball rolling.

Cuba will be the same thing. As American money and businesses pour in, a middle and upper class will form within weeks and they will demand an end to the regime's dominance. These are the people who keep the regime alive today. And when the regime is stripped of their support as they find a better deal getting rich, the regime must either retreat or collapse. I guess they could call out the Army, but that's almost never worked to maintain control once the public gets money-fever. In fact, outside of a temporary victory in China, which gave way to liberalization almost immediately, I can't think of an instance where this has worked.

So the moral is simple: if you want to change a nation, liberalize economic relations and let greed crush ideology. If you want to pretend to change a regime while actually strengthening it, then pimp for sanctions.

Obama v. The GOP

Obama thinks this will help him and his legacy, but it won't. This change will mean nothing to Obama's legacy because the public just doesn't care about foreign policy or cold war relic policies. In fact, all it will do is add to the vague sense the public has that Obama is weak.

On the other hand, there is nothing to be gained by fighting this or attacking Obama. The best the GOP can do in that regard is to be ignored. A more likely result is they will be seen as being a pain in the ass who are obsessed with ideology and ancient feuds that no longer matter to the public.

Where this change will actually matter is in Florida electoral politics. And in that, the GOP is best situated to be the winner. The Cuban community in Florida is largely Republican, though the younger ones are more Democratic. And while the older Cubans are generally opposed to liberalization, they will ultimately be the ones who benefit the most from this change because they will be the ones who fund all the businesses that will be opening in Cuba. That means the GOP's Florida base will soon be much, much richer. And if the GOP helps them in this, through the normal "client services" in which Congress engages, then the GOP will be directly responsible for helping that effort to go smoothly. You can make a lot of friends that way... newly rich, powerful friends. In theory, the Democrats could do this too, only they don't have the connections to the community that the GOP does and they are seen as sympathetic to the wrong people, i.e. communists. What the GOP needs to avoid is trying to throw up roadblocks to economic development which let the Democrats become the heroes of the Cuban community. They also need to avoid changing the immigration preferences for Cubans, which will not sit well with the community. Beyond that, they should seize this opportunity to transform Cuba and the electoral landscape of Florida... Carpe Florida!

Thoughts?
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Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Can You Pass A Citizenship Test?

Well, now that the holiday season has ended and we get back to our "normal" lives, it is time to take a test. Now, I have every confidence that everyone here at CommentaramaPolitics can easily pass this test, but it never hurts to review.

Playbuzz.com - Citizenship Test

And if you are really ambitious, you can try these from the History Channel Two Quizes [Caveat - These have not been updated since 2009]

I know you all did very well. And I am almost certain that you learned all the answers to these questions in elementary school. Am I right? Well, did you know that Civics classes are no longer a basic requirement in most public schools? As a matter of fact, 39 states require only one class in government or civics to graduate. If you think this is scary, watch this short video made by a couple of student journalists included in this 2012 HuffPo article - 'Lunch Scholars' Of course, it was edited to include the best "wrong answers". But when one student was asked "Who is the Vice President?" and her answer was "bin Laden", I died a little inside. There should be no student in any public school who cannot answer that question correctly.

I really have not point here except, if our students do not know the basics of when, where, what, why and how our government works, how can we reasonably expect them to be able to protect and defend our Constitution?
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Monday, January 5, 2015

Predictions For 2015

Wow am I flying blind on this one, but here goes. I've thought about this long and hard and here are some predictions I have for the upcoming year. Please feel free to add your own and we'll revise at the end of the year! Huzzah! Accountability! ;-)

Obama Proves Impotent: Obama will push five or six “major” Executive Orders with the idea of circumventing the Congress to impose his “ideology” on the country. There will be a lot of noise, gnashing of teeth and the such surrounding these Orders, but they will ultimately prove to be impotent. He just doesn’t have the power or creativity to change enough.

By way of example, consider the immigration Order. Despite all the bravado, this Order can’t prevent deportations... it can only delay them. As a result, illegals have more to lose by coming forward to take advantage of the Order than they do staying hidden and hoping never to get caught.

Supreme Court v. Obamacare: This one is easy: the Supreme Court will uphold the Obamacare subsidies despite the law clearly not allowing them. This strikes me as obvious because Justice Roberts has clearly decided to protect Obamacare, probably because he’s very, very pro-Big Business, which means he will want to protect the insurance carriers who cut the dirty deal that is Obamacare.

The Pope Scores: Somewhere during the year, I expect to see two data points related to the Catholic Church. First, I think the Pope’s efforts to move beyond controversial issues and instead focus on the Church’s mission of providing comfort and general moral guidance will result in a flood of new converts. I’m not sure how many, but it will be a statistically relevant increase. Secondly, there will be a series of polls which will show that the public at large now sees the Church as reformed from its sex abuse scandals, and ready to move forward.

Big Trouble In Big China: China seems to be headed for trouble. For decades, we were told that China needs to maintain 9%+ growth to maintain domestic peace. It sounds like their GDP has fallen to around 6% and may be even lower than that – it’s not clear because China lies to make its data seem more impressive.

Moreover, China seems to have problems: (1) their labor costs are now too high, with other Asian countries like Bangladesh taking away their low-end work, (2) China failed to develop a strong high-end economy, and (3) China has failed to develop the kinds of good relationships with its neighbors that will allow it to develop stronger markets. Further, China has been so aggressive with its neighbors that it seems to have caused an arms race it cannot afford and cannot win, and which risks Japan militarizing and drawing even closer to the US.

Economic Disconnect Continues: I think the economic disconnect will continue. Big Business will make record profits. The stock market will slump in January/Feb, but then soar for the year... maybe as much as 20%. Retail investors (you and I) will miss the rally. Middle class incomes will continue to fall. Middle class jobs will continue to vanish... the villain this time is robotics, not China.

Putting The Band Back Together: Putin will finish rebuilding the Soviet Union this year... at least as far as he will ever get it (he won’t get the Baltics back and he will have no influence over Eastern Europe). Sadly for him, the countries he is managing to pull back in are craphole countries that will drain his shrinking resources.

Sony II: The Sony hacker scandal has legs for a number of reasons, including the likely eventual resignation of a couple of their officers, and a possible (though unlikely) sale of the studio. The bigger issue related to Sony, however, is that hackers may see the Sony incident as a new way to damage companies. Hence, look for more hackers to stop trying to disrupt systems and instead trying to steal e-mails and embarrassing documents to post online.

Grievance Industries Continues to Fade: I think we’ve hit a tipping point where the public is done with the feminism, racism, etc. grievance industry. By and large, this means death by neglect. In 2015, more evidence of this will be seen by the inability of the grievance lobby to rally the public to whatever series of incidents arise in 2015 (rape allegations, police shootings).

Cosby: Wow. I just don’t know how this will play out... with one exception: anyone who tries to jump into this issue and use it politically will find themselves as the escape hatch for the media and will be destroyed. Avoid this like the plague folks.

The Gay Surprise: For some time now, I’ve been sure that the Supreme Court will let gay marriage move ahead at its own pace and will only step in to grant gay marriage nationwide after most states are onboard. The more I think about it, however, the more I suspect that the Supreme Court may be ready to bust out a surprise here. With polls showing an increasingly large majority of the public favoring gay rights, with the younger generations being overwhelmingly in favor, with even many GOP politicians now supporting the issue, and with the public increasingly treating the issue as non-controversial and resolved, I suspect that the Supreme Court may pull the trigger this year and “suggest” that gay marriage will be found to be a Constitutional right, with the intent being to get the appellate courts on the same page so the Supremes never need speak definitively on the issue.

No NFL In LA: The NFL has been using the bluff of moving a team to LA to extort stadiums out of cities that already have teams. People are catching onto this, so the NFL has made a huge push lately to convince people that 2015 really will be the year that an NFL team moves to LA... honest... swear to God... IT WILL HAPPEN PEOPLE!! The San Diego Chargers are considered most likely. However, I think the LA bluff is just too valuable to the existing 32 teams to give it up, and the NFL will not let anyone move to LA.

European Irrelevance Affirmed (again): Once again, I expect nothing consequential to come out of Europe this year.

Lurching Left: For about a decade, South America has been moving leftward. Not coincidentally, their economies have begun to fade and sputter as a result. Look for them to continue to drift left, however, because their poor have learned how to vote themselves goodies and their poor way outnumber their middle classes.

In terms of countries of interest, watch the following: (1) Cuba post-liberalization with the US – look for a massive economic surge and the Americanization of the island, (2) Venezuela is tottering on collapse, but refuses to change...should make for an interesting year, and (3) Argentina is in deep kaka and Madame Kirchner seems to think that provoking a war may be her best way out of her mess. Her preferred target has been Britain, but I suspect that anyone will do in a pinch, and 2015 could provide that pinch.

Wasted Opportunity: I suspect the GOP will waste the opportunity they’ve been given. I fear we will get (1) a series of meaningless bills that sound extreme as they are meant to please the fringe, but which the party knows Obama will veto. These won’t win over the unwinnable fringe, will anger the moderates, and will show the public that the GOP doesn’t understand the new political reality where the public sees meaningless show votes as sleazy. (2) We will get a couple of needless compromises that do nothing to advance genuine reforms conservatives will like – basically, the GOP will compromise on the wrong things.

Defining Failure As Victory: Obamacare will continue to fall. It was supposed to cover 43 million people. Then we were told nine million would sign up the first year. Eight million did, but only six million paid their bills, yet we were told this was a huge victory for Obamacare. In year two, we were told to expect around 15 million initially. This was brought down to nine million total. Despite automatic signups, it looks like only eight million will be signed up, yet we will be told again that this is a huge victory.

War?: I don’t see any new wars on the horizon this year. If anything, look for something in North-East Africa, in the neighborhood of Sudan.

Bad Movies: 2014 was a banner year for pathetic films. I suspect 2015 will be a mirror image.

So what did I miss?
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Wednesday, December 31, 2014

The Year That Was -- Winners and Losers

Now that the New Year is upon us, let us review the winners and losers from this past year!

Winner: The GOP. The GOP won an historic midterm election and gained control over the Senate. They also finally seem to have gained control over their own party and their own agenda. They have a strong pool of princelings, many of whom are even talking about new and legitimate issues to help win over the public. At the same time, large chunks of the conservative punditry have come back to reality and stopped trying to destroy the party. The left seems more insane than ever. Obama continues to do more harm than good to his own party and is providing the GOP with voter-ready issues to exploit on a nearly weekly basis. And Hillary Clinton appears to be a dud. They face an historic opportunity in 2016 to regain Reagan's popularity if they do the right things between now and then.

Loser: Genuine "Conservatives". We've been over this extensively, but to sum it up: this was the year the GOP fought back against the "genuine conservative" fringe who had been holding the party hostage and crushed them. Not only did every one of their candidates get beaten in the primaries by the GOP establishment, but they were exposed as being much, much smaller than most everyone believed. Indeed, rather than being the "base" of the GOP, these people were shown to be somewhere between 20% and 30% of the GOP (around 6% of the public). This has resulted in the neutering of people like Rush, Levine, Ted Cruz, and the Tea Party, who have spent the past few years trying to destroy the GOP and the conservative brand, and is allowing the party to shift back to real conservative ideas (rather than fringe obsessions) and toward things that actually matter to the public.

Loser: Hillary Clinton. The wheels came off the Clinton mini-bus this year in so many ways. First, it became a matter of open discussion that she's just not a good candidate. She has no charisma, no speaking skills, no political sense, and no loyal base. She's lifeless, uninteresting, uninspiring and gaffe prone. Secondly, the left has all but declared their desire to destroy her because her ideology is entirely corporate-establishment. The couple times she's veered from corporate-establishmentism to leftism to sway the base, she's been caught being highly cynical and has embarrassingly needed to backtrack. Third, she's awash in the worst kinds of scandals... those involving incompetence. Fourth, Obama has made it clear he won't help her, and her husband's help is more likely to highlight her missing skills. Worst of all, her aura of inevitability has been growing holes. That's really bad when that's all you have.

Winner: Jeb Bush. It was always questionable whether Chris Christie was real competition for Bush, should Bush choose to run. This year, however, Christie imploded and opened the door completely for Bush. Combine that with a good year of solidifying support and Bush has essentially cleared his path to the nomination and likely the presidency. Ug.

Loser: Race Hustlers. For some time now, the race hustlers have been losing their clout. With less than 1/3 of Americans caring about the race issue, their days are numbered and there seems to be nothing they can do to reverse that. Toward the end of the year they were thrown a minor lifeline when Michael Brown and Eric Garner were killed by white police officers. Whatever the real facts of those cases, tons of famous blacks bought the myth and even the public seemed to accept the idea that perhaps there was still cause to worry about the way some police officers respond to blacks... then the hustlers went too far in trying to whitewash Brown and demonize the police. In so doing, they danced dangerously along the edge of losing the moral victory they were clutching. Then it all imploded when a black criminal drove to New York and assassinated two police officers.

Rather than condemn this murder, the race hustlers jumped into defense mode and tried to disclaim responsibility for this killer's actions. Basically, they ignored the dead cops as they loudly blamed everyone but themselves and in the process they made it clear they cared more about their own images than the victims. This sat poorly with the public, who rightly saw this as the race hustlers condoning the assassinations and hypocritically showing indifference to the officers and their families. At the same time, newspapers like the NY Post began showing footage of these supposedly peaceful protestors chanting for the murder of police officers. Whoops. And it kept getting worse. A somewhat famous "peaceful" protestor was arrested trying to burn down a gas station in Missouri. Then another black male pulled a gun on a cop in Missouri and got shot. The race hustlers stupidly went all in and tried to claim that the Missouri cop was just another example of police abuse/racism and they actually claimed he should not have defended himself with his own gun... an unreasonable claim to any rational person. This confirmed to the public that the race hustlers' case was never an honest case, that it was always opportunistic and deceptive, and that they didn't actually distinguish between blameless young black males and thugs. This resulted in a massive backlash in which the public seems to have switch sides completely.

Loser: Feminists. Feminists had a miserable year. First, they got nothing from the Democrats and the "War on Women" sales pitch failed in the midterm elections. Even the liberal Pope told them to f-off. Secondly, it's become clear that average women have turned their backs on feminism. In fact, as I explained with 50 Shades of Grey, average women have completely rejected the fundamental beliefs of feminism and are embracing the very thing feminists want stopped. Even famous women are now openly rejecting feminism (click). Meanwhile, internally, feminism seems to have collapsed as well, with dinosaur puritanical feminists and pro-sex feminists going to war.

Then the Ray Rice thing happened and for a couple of weeks, it appeared that the feminists had been handed the gift of renewed relevance... but it was an illusion. Indeed, the feminists misunderstood the entire event. They saw the liberal journalists falling all over each other to lynch Rice and they thought they had found allies. They saw the NFL knuckle under and they thought they had a chance to control vast amounts of men. But within days, the journalists did what they always do and they flipped their outrage on its head and they began to whine about how unfair the NFL had been to poor Ray Rice -- completely undermining the message of feminism. Meanwhile, they discovered that not a single male NFL fan cared what the NFL did or didn't do off the field, and the NFL certainly wasn't going to do more than use feminists to polish their image without changing a single thing. So the whole thing Petered out with the feminists getting used without getting anything to show for it.

Then things imploded when the carefully crafted story of a campus rape epidemic fell apart when Rolling Stone got caught pushing an obviously false story about the University of Virginia. At the same time, Lena Dunham was exposed as having invented a rape just so she could falsely blame it on some mystery Republican. Suddenly, the rape crisis that had become conventional wisdom came into question and and disgrace. In the past week, a series of high profile female celebrities have made a number of statements minimizing the significance of rape and turning feminism's tenant of female empowerment into a joke.

Winner: Wall Street. Wall Street had a banner year all around. Not only is the stock market up massively, but the government enshrined "too big to fail," and even decided to reverse the one smart thing the government had done -- prevent Wall Street from speculating with taxpayer backed money. Basically, now the crony socialists get to continue to play "heads I win, tails you lose" with our money as both parties do their bidding.

Loser: Middle Class. Incomes continue to fall, housing won't recover, stock gains remain the province of the rich, net worth remains stagnant, and middle class-supporting jobs continue to vanish. Yeah, things aren't great for average people.

Loser: Obama. The year has not gone well for Obama. First, it became clear he has no positive legacy and the things he was counting on have all turned sour on him. Then he suffered an historic rebuke in the midterm elections, a rebuke that finally shook free the Democrats from his list of blind sycophants. Next, it became clear that his efforts to muscle his way to a legacy by Executive Order, which he sold as earth-shattering and finally proving his leftist credentials, were essentially duds. Now his task gets even harder because he faces a sane GOP Congress.

Loser: Democrats. It continues to become more and more clear that the Democrats' plan to wait for demographics to hand them a permanent majority is pure fantasy. Indeed, the number of Hispanics in the US population has all but stopped growing as Mexico has run out of Mexicans to export, the birthrate for American Hispanics has fallen dramatically, the birthrate for whites has increased, and the number of Asian immigrants has grown. Even a great many liberals are downright panicked about this. Adding to their panic, they have come to realize that whites are fleeing the Democrats in increasingly greater numbers as the Democrats openly implement their efforts to win more minorities. At this point, the only thing keeping the Democrats competitive is that conservatives have so thoroughly driven away woman and minorities. If the GOP can reverse this even by a couple points, the Democrats' demographic dream will turn into a nightmare.

As an aside, the Democrats' princelings got wiped out in the midterms. They suffered a total collapse in the midterms as well. They are infighting now; and best of all, they seem to have learned nothing. Obama is a millstone around their necks. Hillary looks to be Obama sans charisma... if that's humanly possible. They seem to have surrendered the South unconditionally. The GOP is increasingly controlling the midwest at the statehouse level and even is becoming competitive in the Northeast. And worst of the worst, they are stuck answering for Obamacare... every... single... day.

Winner: America. After the Great Recession and Obama's meddling, the US economy was counted down and out. A few years later, we are again the world's growth engine and its dominant economic, military and cultural power. No one else even comes close. In fact, interestingly, during the year a group of alarmists tried to claim that China's economy was now larger than ours, but the truth is that China's economy is about 75% of ours and will never come close to catching up. They also told us Germany was more popular, but good luck finding any element of German culture the world has embraced. Europe remains a eunuch. Japan is running backwards. South America went from BRICs to basket cases, and all those leftist government who used us as a punching bag are now straining and collapsing. Africa is 1,000 years from being competitive. The Middle East and Russia have collapsed as the falling price of oil dragged them down and as the US inched toward energy independence.

America remains the cultural, economic and scientific engine that drives the world. We are the world's inventors, builders, artists, singers, writers, salesmen, and protectors... and our dominance is so complete that no one else is even trying to compete.

Agree? Disagree? Who did I miss?

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Monday, December 29, 2014

Stopping Obama's Executive Orders

I've said before that there is only one way to stop the left from doing something. That is to take the very tools they create and use those tools against them. Logic, human nature and history all suggest this is true. Why am I raising this point? Because there is only one way to stop Obama's executive orders on immigration, global warming and whatever else: turn his usurpation of power against the Democrats. Let's discuss.

Let us begin with a quick history lesson. The Democrats were fine impounding money until Richard Nixon did it to their favorite programs. They invented the special prosecutor and used it with abandon against Reagan and Bush. They only changed their minds when the Republicans used it against Clinton. Then they raced to kill it. They happily used the Department of Education to nationalize education as they saw fit... until Bush used the same tools they created to impose his views on the country's education system. Suddenly, the Democrats discovered a deep love of state's rights and they demanded an end to federal interference. They loved judicial activism, until conservative judges began using the same tools to reverse liberal laws. The examples go on and on, on many levels. In each instance, the Democrats created some new lever of power which they used to impose their will on the system and an unwilling people, and they only gave up that power when the Republicans finally started using it against them... nothing else stopped them.

Indeed, in each instance, nothing short of the Republicans using this new power against liberal interests had the slightest effect on them. The conservative response typically began with hand-ringing about this being an abuse of power or illegal. Liberals laughed it off. Then conservatives tried to find ways to cut off funding or pass laws to stop the abuse. Again, liberals laughed. Why? Because if conservatives succeeded, all they would achieve was stopping the left from winning more gains... nothing would be reversed. And if they failed, then the liberals could continue to win more gain. Basically, they won no matter what. It was only when conservatives finally started using this power to reverse liberal policies and impose conservative ones that liberals finally saw a real potential for harm to their cause and they rushed to kill these new powers.

Why this matters now is simple: Obama has created a new tool to impose his views on immigration and global warming on the country by Executive Order. The conservative response, as always, is to shout that this is illegal and to seek to cut funding or pass laws stopping Obama from doing this, harrumph! But as the above demonstrates, this is no threat to the Democrats. It's a win-win for them, with the worst case being that they get some of what they want.

That's why we need a change of strategy. To stop Obama, we need to make it clear that we will use the same tools of Executive-imposed non-enforcement to neuter their favorite environmental laws or affirmative action laws or Obamacare provisions. Sure, the Democrats can reverse those actions the next time they win the White House, but eight years of ignoring Obamacare, for example, would be more than fatal to the law. The Democrats will immediately see the risk to everything they have built in Washington and they will freak out and work their butts off to find a way to stop anyone from being able to do this.

That's how you stop Obama, by making it clear that the cost of his ideological tantrum will be the neutering of all the laws they cherish. In fact, some leftists are already worried about this.

BTW, as an aside, there is a real problem with what Obama has done on immigration. His administration may decide not enforce the laws, but he can't grant an amnesty. That means the next administration can still deport these people. Basically, the best he can achieve is to give these people a two year stay of execution. That's hardly going to be worth it to these people, especially if they need to out themselves to make it happen. By comparison, eight years of the IRS not enforcing the Obamacare penalty will crush the system's actuarial assumptions... so will eight years of slow-walking subsidies to insurance providers, etc.

As always, the Democrats have much more to lose from this than we do, provided conservatives are willing to fight fire with fire.

Thoughts?
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Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas everyone! May Santa bring you everything you are wishing for, and may the spirit of the season remind you why we celebrate this time of year. :D
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Tuesday, December 23, 2014

The True Meaning Of The Season

And Joseph also went up from Galilee, out of the city of Nazareth, into Judaea, unto the city of David, which is called Bethlehem; (because he was of the house and lineage of David). To be taxed with Mary his espoused wife, being great with child. And so it was, that, while they were there, the days were accomplished that she should be delivered. And she brought forth her firstborn son, and wrapped him in swaddling clothes, and laid him in a manger; because there was no room for them in the inn. And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night.

And, lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid. And the angel said unto them, Fear not: for, behold, I bring you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people. For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Saviour, which is Christ the Lord. And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger. And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God, and saying, Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.
– Luke 2:4-14 KJV

Merry Christmas everyone! Have a Joyeux Noel, a Feliz Navidad, a Fröhliche Weihnachten...well, whatever language you choose, enjoy the spirit of the season.


And to my Jewish friends, as we light the eighth and final candles on our menorahs tonight and our celebration comes to an end, let us pray for peace on Earth and good will toward men too -

Blessed are you, Lord, our God, sovereign of the universe
Who has sanctified us with His commandments and commanded us
to light the lights of Chanukkah. (Amen)

Blessed are you, Lord, our God, sovereign of the universe
Who performed miracles for our ancestors in those days at this time


And we can't forget about Santa! If you have little ones, you can follow Santa as he travels the world courtesy of NORAD's Santa Tracker! But make sure they are asleep before he reaches your home town because it is a fact that Santa won't come until he knows that you're asleep!

UPDATE -
Oh, I forgot, for the rest of us (or at least Tryanmax), there's Festivus

And now a word from Charles Dickens - God [substitute deity of your choice] Bless Us One And All!
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Sunday, December 21, 2014

The Left Assasinates Two Minority Cops

This weekend, an angry black male named Ismaaiyl Abdula Brinsley, walked up behind two New York City cops and assassinated them by shooting both in the head as they sat in their cruiser. The two officers, Rafael Ramos and Wenjian Liu, were part of an initiative to help reduce the crime in city public housing by just maintaining a police presence that local residents could turn to for help. This was murder. And make no mistake, this was caused by leftists and race baiters like Al Sharpton, Eric Holder and Mayor de Blasio.

The murderer in question came from Baltimore to do his dirty work. On the way to New York City, he also shot an ex-girlfriend. Before he left, he wrote on Facebook that he intended to kill some "pigs" in retaliation for Michael Brown and Eric Garner... people he wouldn't even have known about if the left hadn't turned them into their latest grievance.

Naturally, the left jumped up and immediately tried to disassociate themselves from this double murder, but that's just evidence that they know they are at fault. Indeed, within hours, de Blasio, Eric Holder, Al Sharpton and the families of Garner and Brown all issued statements that tried to shift the blame away from themselves. None of them actually condemned the murders. Indeed, de Blasio issued a statement that avoided any sort of condemnation. He spoke theoretically about how the police protect us from the "forces of criminality and evil" and how "it is an attack on the very concept of decency" when they are attacked. Notice that he never connects his theoretical opining with what happened to these two officers, he never mentions the event, and he never expressed outrage.

Holder was just as bad. Check out this non-committal statement: "Our nation must always honor the valor — and the sacrifices — of all law enforcement officers with a steadfast commitment to keeping them safe. This means forging closer bonds between officers and the communities they serve." Gee, did something happen? Is there something we should honor? Was there a sacrifice? Or does he just mean generically? Notice there is no mention of murder, outrage, families without fathers... all the things he would have raised if a cop had assassinated two drug dealers. Notice there is no promise of an investigation. There is no demand to find out what caused this thug to decide to murder two cops and to implement reforms accordingly.

The Brooklyn NAACP went even further in trying to make this sound like it was just a random event with no particular cause: "Gun violence continues to plague our city and we remain committed to working with both members of the community and law enforcement to address it in a nonviolent, peaceful, and productive way." Oh, so it was "gun violence"? It wasn't some thug who stated that he was coming to kill cops in retaliation for something the NAACP has been pounding away about. Do you think they would be as generic if it was a KKK member who wrote on Facebook that he was coming to NYC to kill two blacks in retaliation for the murder of some white woman by a local black thug? Doubt it.

Then you have Al Sharpton. Holder and de Blasio want to keep this event as far away from them as possible. That's why they are speaking in terms of theory and hypothetical sacrifices. Sharpton, however, knows he can't get away with that because he got in much deeper. Indeed, while Holder and de Blasio have encouraged the murder of these two cops only at a distance by not condemning the attitudes that lead people like Brinsley to do this and by pushing the idea that blacks are helpless victims of a murderous system, Al is actively stoking those flames in rally after rally by pushing the idea that white's don't value black lives and white cops are racists who will always be protected by the system. Hence, Al must work harder to separate himself from the atmosphere he has created. Consequently, he states: "We have stressed at every rally and march that anyone engaged in any violence is an enemy to the pursuit of justice for Eric Garner and Michael Brown." Funny, I don't recall that. All I recall is the constant claims that blacks can't get justice, that cops are racists, that the system thinks blacks don't matter, that whites don't value black lives, and that every black is in danger of rogue cops hunting them down.

Look, the left caused this just as sure as Hitler caused anti-Jewish pogroms in Germany in the 1930s. These people are stoking up the black community, telling them that they are victims of a system that is designed to allow racist cops to murder black males, and they lie and distort the facts in every instance they can find to prove it. You simply can't beat that drum, a drum which tells people that the reasons their lives stink is that some powerful group has victimized them, without the weaker-minded members of that group deciding to avenge themselves.

This is nothing new for the left. The left works by agitating people to violence. Then it quasi-condemns the violence to assuage their collective consciences while simultaneously actively condoning the causes and justifications that drove those people to violence. If any of these people who claim to want to stop violence actually were opposed to violence rather than just violence "against their own," then Sunday would have been a day of mass rallies at which people like Al Sharpton and de Blasio call Brinsley a murderer, condemn his violence, and make it crystal clear that they will never endorse, support or encourage violence to achieve their cause. That didn't happen.

And let me add this: these people are much worse than the cops they are condemning. Brinsley and anyone who spurred him on are cold-blooded killers. They encouraged a stupid, unstable, evil young man to murder two innocent people at random. By comparison, the cops accused of killing Brown and Garner at worst acted negligently or recklessly and ended up killing those young men by accident or as a result of a situation that spun out of control. Neither cop set out to kill anyone, but Sharpton, Holder and de Blasio's drone did. And if they can't see the fundamental difference, then they are morally vacant, worthless human beings. Equally to blame are all those smug leftists who have been attending marches, whining into microphones or even posting asinine thoughts on Facebook or twitter are to blame. You people got two minority police officers killed, two families left without fathers, all because you childishly express your selective outrage in ways that encourage others to kill. By the way, smuggies, to add the cherry to this crap cake, you also will be to blame the next time some young cop remembers this assassination and overreacts out of fear for his life. Nice work.

Thoughts?
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Thursday, December 18, 2014

When The Truth Isn't Good Enough, Just Lie!

You may have read the endless reams of articles about the little kerfuffle at Rolling Stone magazine last week. Here is a link to the original story published November 19 - A Rape On Campus:A Brutal Assault and Struggle for Justice at UVA by Sabrina Rubin Erdely.

It's a horrific story about a young freshman who was invited to a frat party and ended up being brutally gang raped by a group of frat brothers as part of some frat initiation. This horrific story spawned campus protests and caused the University Board to suspend all fraternity activities and issue a statement condemning the incident and any kind of campus sexual assault. Well, except that the story was not the least bit true. Yeah, it turns out that Ms. Erdely, in her zeal to find a victim to highlight and perpetators to condemn, failed to do what any credible journalist would do before accusing people of a horrific criminal act. She failed to do any kind of fact-checking at all. She took what this young woman said as the truth because she trusted her instincts and just ran with it. And so did the Rolling Stone editors. As a matter of fact, once someone bothered to actually check the facts and "discrepancies" in the article, it did not take long to find the story to be an almost complete fabrication. It caused a firestorm on Twitter and here is just one of many articles from the Washinton Post - The Full Demise Of Rolling Stone Rape Story on December 10.

Now this is really beside the point. It is Erdeley's explanation as to why she feels she has done nothing wrong that is truly disturbing. According to her...and I am paraphrasing here...so what if none of it was actually true. It COULD have been true and that is good enough because there is a rape culture on college campuses today that must be stopped. But of course, that begs the question that if this "rape culture" is so rampant, why does she have to resort to fabrications to make her point? But even more hideous were her condemnations of any who would dare to take umbrage with her fabrications and distortions and then accusing them of being "rape deniers" and "supporters of rape culture". And the inevitable accusations of "blaming the victim" except in this story, there WAS no victim. Well, except the young men who were falsely accused, of course. But then, that's okay because they COULD have done it.

Anyway, you can read all you want about this issue with a simple "google search" if you want, but I find it scary that seemingly credible "journalists" now have no qualms about printing lies if it furthers their narrative. We used to call that "fiction", but now it is "journalism". This is just one example of the slippery slide downward into some kind of Orwellian nightmare.

Oh, and if you really want to see scary, check out the same type of kerfluffle surrounding HBO "Girls" writer/actress Lena Dunham's autobiography Not That Kind Of Girl and John Nolte's investigation for Breitbart - LINK. In her case she alleges that she was raped by a conservative, Republican student named "Barry" while a student at Oberline College. But this time her false accusations may cause a pretty hefty libel suit...here's her "brave" excuse - Lena Dunham on Rape Backlash

As always feel free to comment on this or any other issue...
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Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Bush Will Win The Nomination

In 2008, John McCain won the Republican nomination handily. I was shocked. How could this be? “The base” hates McCain because he opposes everything they stand for and he’s disloyal; indeed, he’s one of the few to whom the label RINO actually applies. Even worse, he’s unstable. Yet, he won. How? Well, I spent a good deal of time trying to figure that out. What I learned was shocking, and it tells me that Bush has already won our nomination.

Let’s start with McCain. How did he do it? Well, there were many “conventional wisdom” possibilities. Chief among these was the idea that the party simply prefers old guys “whose turn it is.” But conventional wisdom is almost always wrong. It tends to mistake correlation for causation. In fact, even worse, what it often tags as THE “cause” is more typically actually caused by the truth the conventional wisdom has missed.

This is like the misleading “running yards” indicator in the NFL. It has been observed that teams that run for more yards win more games in the NFL. Hence conventional wisdom says that having a solid running game causes teams to win. The reality, however, is that the teams with the most running yards tend to get those running yards in the fourth quarter at a point where they are way ahead and simply want to eat up the clock. Thus, in reality, being a winning team causes teams to run more, which gives them higher running averages. Ergo, the conventional wisdom is entirely backwards: winning causes teams to get more running yards, running yards do not cause wins.

This was the case with the “next old guy in line” theory. These guys (McCain, Dole, etc.) didn’t win because the party felt they were owed the nomination because of their seniority, they won because their experience taught them what they needed to do to win, something the young guys hadn’t learned yet. Thus, the conventional wisdom took a correlation (their seniority) and wrongly called it the “cause” of their victory, even though the real cause was something completely different but which correlated to their experience.

So how did McCain win? McCain won the nomination in 2005 and 2006. He did it by going to every single state in the union and campaigning for every Republican he could find at the local, state and national levels. He gave money and advice. He gave endorsements. He held fundraisers. He even donated to guys who were unopposed. And in so doing, he won the loyalty of the overwhelming majority of the most important, most connected, and most respected Republicans in every single state.

When the primaries began, these people returned the favor. They endorsed him... much to the shock of conservatives everywhere: “Why are these real conservatives endorsing HIM?!!” Many also helped organize his campaign in their states or even ran the campaign for him. This meant they used their own networks/contacts to help him. They even fundraised for him. The result was that his campaign became a juggernaut in state after state. And while talk radio toyed in 2007 and 2008 with choosing which “real” conservative they would back, they totally failed to notice what McCain had done and that he was jumping to insurmountable leads everywhere. They didn’t realize the race was over before it even began, it was just a matter of waiting for the votes to confirm it.

There was one more key aspect to his victory too, which I never realized until the recent talk radio civil war: the “base” that hates McCain and which make it “impossible” for guys like him to win are only about 20% of the party. Another 20% could be considered swing conservatives, who vacillate between wanting to win and making ideological statements. And the other 60% of GOP voters are much more moderate and prefer competence and a strong resume to ideological purity. That means the idea that the base will reject moderates as talk radio claims is simply wrong.

Enter Jeb Bush. For the record, I hate dynasties (it’s un-American) and I loath the idea of voting for another Bush. His family has all but destroyed conservatism twice now. G.W. stopped the Reagan revolution cold by ceding the moral high ground to the left by repeatedly characterizing Reaganism as something cold, uncaring, harsh, destructive and in need of being replaced by something kinder and gentler. He also never once defended Reagan against a campaign of slanders from the left. Moreover, he blurred Reagan’s common sense, middle class-ism with the New World Order of international governance, and he called that conservatism. The end result was the total halting of the Reagan revolution and the handing to the Democrats of a chance to become the permanent majority party. Only Hillarycare saved our butts.

W was a million times worse. He was sold to us as “don’t worry, he’s not like his old man... conservatives have nothing to fear... he’s one of you!” But right away, his administration reeked of corruption and robber baronism, which he falsely claimed was “pro-business conservatism.” His economic policy was disastrous Keynesian crap, which he falsely claimed was “free market conservatism.” He did stunningly liberal things, like create new Medicare benefits, which he called conservatism with a heart... again suggesting that conservatism is somehow immoral, cold and harsh. He totally embraced nation building, got caught lying to get us into a war with Iraq -- which let the left equate conservatism with war mongering. Add to that torture and his attempt to strip the Gitmo detainees of guaranteed human rights. He won the war itself (at first) but proved utterly incompetent in managing the peace, which resulted in thousands of lives and trillions of dollars lost. Katrina incompetence. The financial crisis. Wall Street bailout. Etc.

Each of these things destroyed Bush’s reputation with the public, especially as he never fought back, no matter how bad the political damage. Even worse, because he hid behind conservatism like a cloak or shield, conservatism became tarred with his sins even though he never once acted like a conservative. Consequently, by the time he limped away from office, conservatism was all but dead in America. The only thing that saved conservatism was Obamacare. Without Obama’s horrible presidency, the US would have become center-left akin to Germany or modern Britain.

So along comes Jeb. Jeb was an OK governor of Florida, though he proved not to be very conservative. Since leaving office, he has continuously criticized the GOP and conservatism. Yet, we are told not to worry because this Bush isn’t like the prior two. All I can think is, “Fool me twice, shame on me... fool me three times, WTF is my problem?”

In any event though, none of that matters. The race is over and Bush has won. Consider this...

The right is disorganized. Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ben Carson and a number of lesser figures all want to be the talk radio champion. Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, and a few others are trying to win both the talk radio right and the more moderate mainstream right. This means that fringe 20% and the swing 20% are scattered among many potential candidates. The moderates are not.

Running against this collection of dwarves was Chris Christie. Unlike the others, Christie positioned himself as a moderate who could attract moderate and even Democratic votes. This makes him appeal to the 60% of moderates and some of the 20% of swing conservatives. Only, Christie is too bombastic, and has too many flaws. Bush does not. By entering the race, Bush automatically wipes out Christie and takes that 60%-80% support.

Further, so far, the dwarves have only played around with the idea of running. They’ve given speeches at various gatherings. They’ve tried to stake out some issue(s) that they think will set them apart, and they’ve pandered to the talk radio hosts. A few have sought out donors, but nothing on a grand scale. In fact, there seems to be this idea that they should do nothing until after the 2014 mid-term elections. Only Rick Perry and Rand Paul seem to be doing more.

Bush, by comparison, has spent the past few years following McCain’s lead. He has quietly helped leading Republicans everywhere he could. He spent his time distancing himself from the nasty conduct of the fringe right in recent years, and he’s sold himself to party insiders as Christie without the flaws. He’s also built a massive donor base – something Rush ignorantly pooh-poohed the other day. In fact, Rush bizarrely warped these people into the enemy of conservatism by describing Bush’s appeal to them as being his ability to “win the party nomination without owing anything to the tea party. Their wildest dream is to render the tea party conservatives an irrelevant factor.”

The result of this is that Bush has essentially sealed up the “moderate” vote which Romney proved was around 60% of GOP primary voters. He’s also got enough promises of endorsements and the such to make sure this support remains firm throughout. He’s collected enough money and promises of money to be able to stay in the race until the end no matter how things start – this means he can survive the early primaries, which are geared toward the fringe, until he can sweep states like New York and California. And he’s done all of this without talk radio realizing what he’s done, which means they will be fighting the wrong battle, i.e. they think the battle has yet to begin when in reality the end game is playing out now.

Thoughts?
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Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Tuesday Open Thread

Yeah, yeah...it's Tuesday and I just can't bring myself to write about anything tonight. There's too much craziness in NYC right now to focus on just one thing. So let's open the floor to talk about anything you want to.

In the meantime, here are photos of puppies and kittens to calm us down...okay, they are for me, but you can enjoy them too.





Okay, now that we are all calm...what's on your mind?
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Monday, December 15, 2014

A Ground-level Update On Obamacare

This is a difficult time for Obamacare. The Supreme Court is looking at it again and may wipe out the subsidies most people get, which will destroy the law if it happens. But even if the law survives that, it remains deeply unpopular and has become an albatross around Democratic necks. Indeed, it has been blamed by several Democrats (including now Harry Reid) as the reason they got blown out in the midterms, and many are trying to position themselves as critics of the law they passed. What makes it so unpopular? Well, here's an example I've run across personally.

When I went to the hospital ER, they gave me a referral to a wound clinic. Ok, I thought, I don't know what they will do for me, but I'll go. So, imagine my surprise to discover that the wound clinic could not take a referral from the ER. When I inquired why they couldn't take the referral, I was told that Obamacare forbids this and, thus, they now require patients to go back to their GPs to get referrals. What if I don't have a GP, I asked, or if my insurance doesn't require me to use a GP as a gatekeeper? It doesn't matter... Obamacare prohibits this.

So I had to see my lousy doc and blow another $80 in insurance money and a $24 co-pay just to get a referral that I had already been given. What a waste!

When I got to the wound clinic, I was shocked to discover that this group of nurses are fantastic. They are MUCH, MUCH more knowledgeable at treating wounds than any of the doctors I've seen. And in one week, I already saw more improvement than my doctors had managed in six months. In two weeks, things were going so well that I can visibly see healing and I've even had a couple days where I didn't need pain pills. Wow! Fantastic.

Anyways, I started chatting with them, as I tend to do. I learned some amazing things:
(1) They lost 20% of their patients when Obamacare kicked in, because many insurance companies dropped wound care as a cost savings measure to compensate for other things the law forced them to cover. The nurses are furious about this because they said these were most often the people who needed the care the most, and now they are basically on their own. And I can attest to the fact that you can't duplicate this at home... no way, and GPs aren't trained to do this either.

(2) They lost another 10% of their patients because their clinic, which had been associated with the hospital but not part of it, was forced into the hospital structure to comply with Obamacare. I have heard similar things from cardiology groups, a vascular group and a bariatric group, i.e. that the law made it impossible for them to remain independent and, thus, they had no choice but to join the hospital. The result is that the wound clinic must now charge a $100 per visit hospital facilities charge, even though nothing has changed in the way they practice or even the location where they are located. The result of this was to drive away the people without insurance, who couldn't afford the extra $400 to $800 a month.

(3) The referral thing is costing new patients an extra trip to their GP every so often. Again, this is wasteful.

(4) Some of the treatments they provided in the past had to be dropped because of price pressure.
So the result here is that around 1/3 of people who saw these expert nurses no longer see them. Those that do see them are paying a good deal more to do so, and some services have been cut. Wasn't Obamacare supposed to be about getting more people treatment? Apparently, that's not the point. Apparently, the point is to strip people of anything beyond basic treatment.

In fact, Paul "I'm An Idiot But I'm Smug" Krugman scratched out an article recently in which he praised Obamacare for cutting the rate at which Americans were spending on healthcare. He based this on a huge drop in Medicare spending. What he missed was that the drop wasn't because people were getting the treatment more efficiently... they just weren't getting it because Medicare stopped paying for it.

Oh, and while the leftist media continues to try to scream that this program has been a success (something the public clearly doesn't accept), keep in mind that the plan called to insure 46 million people. But so far, only 8 million signed up, and only 6 million bothered to pay. That's a 12% success rate. Was that worth disrupting our entire healthcare economy and the policies of 270 million people? Was it worth stripping 30% of wound care patients of needed treatment? Hardly.
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Thursday, December 11, 2014

Spend, Spend, Spend...

With all the other hysteria going around, Congress passed a $1.1 trillion budget to keep "The Government" open for a little while longer. And despite the all the fire-breathing Drudge headlines condemning the Republicans and Boehner for betraying us, it doesn't really look that way entirely. Like all federal spending budgets, it's got goodies for everyone especially politicians! Washington Post did a fairly good point-by-point breakdown of what it includes some interesting funding cuts. And like the title indicates they "did the skimming" so we don't have to!

Here are few of the points from the article that I am going to cut and paste mainly because I am too lazy to do anything else. You can read the whole article here - LINK

AFFORDABLE CARE ACT:
The law is still funded, but there's no new money for it. There's also no new ACA-related funding for the Internal Revenue Service and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the two agencies most responsible for implementing the law. The bill also would cut the budget of the Independent Payment Advisory Board -- what Republicans have called "the death panel" -- by $10 million.

AFGHANISTAN:
Congress withholds funding for the Afghan government "until certain conditions are met," including implementing the bilateral security agreement reached with the United States.



Oh, this point is interesting. With all the calls for passing legislation to curtail all that "Citizen's United" campaign spending, our elected officials seem to just double-down (or triple or quadruple) the amount one can donate. This ought to set those anti-campaign spending advocates tongues a-wagging!

CAMPAIGN FINANCE:
The bill would dramatically expand the amount of money that wealthy political donors could inject into the national parties, drastically undercutting the 2002 landmark McCain-Feingold campaign finance overhaul. Bottom line: A donor who gave the maximum $32,400 this year to the Democratic National Committee or Republican National Committee would be able to donate another $291,600 on top of that to the party’s additional arms -- a total of $324,000, ten times the current limit. Read more on this here.

DODD-FRANK:
Democrats agreed to make some of the biggest changes yet to the 2010 financial regulatory reforms. In a deal sought by Republicans, the bill would reverse Dodd-Frank requirements that banks "push out" some of derivatives trading into separate entities not backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporations. Ever since being enacted, banks have been pushing to reverse the change. Now, the rules would go back to the way they used to be. But in exchange, Democrats say they secured more money for the enforcement budgets at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission.


This might be problematic for the anti-immigration crowd, but we can't just let the southern border states go broke taking care of Obama's new "migrant" children. And apparently we will be paying their home countries for the privilege...

IMMIGRATION:
The bill only funds the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees most immigration policy, until February. But negotiators gave new money for immigration programs at other federal agencies. There's $948 million for the Department of Health and Human Service's unaccompanied children program -- an $80 million increase. The program provides health and education services to the young migrants. The department also gets $14 million to help school districts absorbing new immigrant students. And the State Department would get $260 million to assist Central American countries from where of the immigrant children are coming.


Well, this is step in the right direction!

INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE:
One of the GOP's favorite targets will see its budget slashed by $345.6 million. The nation’s tax agency also would be banned from targeting organizations seeking tax-exempt status based on their ideological beliefs.


Oh, no! This is really mean...
JOE BIDEN:
The legislation once again enacts a pay freeze for the vice president "and senior political appointees."


But the other Federal workers will get their raise, but no more music videos and Vegas conventions. And a military personnel with get the same payraise.

FEDERAL WORKER PAY (AND CONFERENCES):
The bill allows a 1 percent pay raise ordered by Obama to take effect in January. And the legacy of embarrassing spending scandals at federal agencies persist as Congress once again banned or put limits on certain conferences, official travel and some employee awards.

MILITARY PAY AND PERKS:
Military service members will receive a 1 percent pay increase next year. But there's a pay freeze for generals and flag officers. The bill also ends a five percent discount on tobacco and tobacco-related products sold at military exchanges.

VETERANS:
After a year of embarrassing scandals at the sprawling Department of Veterans Affairs, lawmakers are making good on promises to provide more money and oversight. There's a total of $159.1 billion in discretionary and mandatory spending. Of that, $209 million was added to address new costs related to the bipartisan veterans' reform bill passed last summer. The legislation calls for adding medical staff and expanding dozens of facilities. In order to specifically addressing the "wait list" scandal, the VA's inspector general is getting a $5 million budget increase to continue investigating lapses in patient care.


Well, anyway, here are some others:
- Cuts to food stamps, but white potatoes are now an official vegetable "eligible for purchase" with food stamps. Of course, why weren't they before now?
- Sadly, no money to save the sage-grouse, but there is money to save their habitat from further destruction. Poor sage-grouse...
-
- Official portraits of elected officials will now have to be out of pocket.
- Continue to fund Israel and will no longer fund the Palestinian Authority or Hamas.
- Oh, and you'll be able to get those cheaper incandescent bulbs for a little while longer...


There's more, but you can read it for yourself...well, the WashPo article anyway.
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