Night Of A Thousand Retirements

Ladies and Gentlemen, 2010 is starting off as a banner year. We’re only a few days in and already we’ve seen a series of surprising retirement announcements. The most recent: Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and the creature from Connecticut, Chris Dodd. What does this mean? It means the writing is on the wall and the Democrats are in serious trouble.

With the Democrats’ poll numbers hanging lower than a gangbanger’s pants, a large number of the rats have started leaving the Obamatanic. Over the past couple months, we’ve heard stories of one House Democrat after another deciding that they would not seek re-election. Even a few governors seem to have discovered the writing on the wall, like Colorado’s dipsh*t Democratic governor Bill Ritter. And now the Senate Democrats are getting into the act.

Some Republicans are leaving their seats too, but there is a difference. Those Republicans are leaving their seats to challenge for a higher office and they tend to be leaving safe Republican seats. Many of these Democrats aren’t. Indeed, many of them are in districts that McCain carried by a significant margin. Four such “McCain Democrats” have already announced their retirements (Kansas, Washington and two in Tennessee). One, Alabama House Democrat Parker Griffith, jumped parties.

Just as interesting, Democratic recruits are headed toward the exits as well. In a number of races, the Democrats lined up heavy hitters to challenge incumbent Republicans or to challenge for open seats, and now those people are deciding not to run.

The Hill identifies five such challengers who have withdrawn in recent weeks in Kansas, Texas, Ohio, Tennessee and California -- candidates that the DNC touted as evidence of their recruiting success.

Now the Senate is getting into the act. Polls show that the Democrats are in trouble in Senate races in Illinois and Delaware (Obama and Biden’s old seats), Colorado, Ohio, Nevada (Harry Reid’s seat), Pennsylvania, Arkansas and New York. Even Ted Kennedy’s seat appears to be in reach -- though I put no faith in that remaining true.

Now we add Byron Dorgan to the mix. Dorgan is another of the supposed moderates in the Senate, though there are no moderates in the Senate if you look at their voting records this year. He is retiring because early polls show him trailing Republican Gov. John Hoeven should Hoeven run. This should now become a fairly easy pickup for the Republicans.

Dodd you all know. He’s a crook and an as~hole and recent polls show that he would lose to Hitler. In a way this is a bad development for the Republicans because it allows the Democrats to find a candidate who would be palatable to the electorate. And in a state that appears to be 94% Democratic, such a candidate has a much better chance than Dodd. But that’s not clear. Looking at the national mood, it’s possible that this election will be much worse than the Democrats expect, and this wave of retirements is the evidence that their internal polling has shown them the light.

Consider the following. Republicans continue to lead in the generic polls. Obama’s polls are at a low and continue to fall. The Democrats are slightly less popular than herpes. And they seem intent on moving further left in the hopes of “energizing” a base that has been turned off by their corruption and failures. Indeed, there has been a lively (hateful) debate recently, unnoticed by the media of course, in which various Democrats argued about whether or not to move toward the center or keep moving further left. Further left appears to be winning.

With a massive gap in the enthusiasm of voters foretelling a huge anti-Democrat wave in 2010, and little resistance from the faithful, this could become an interesting election. Right now, the Republicans do not stand to retake either the House or the Senate, but that could change.

If the Republicans sweep the ten seats mentioned above, they would only have 49 seats in the Senate (and they may lose New Hampshire). At the same time, the four seats above leave them with a 36 seat gap in the House, though the DNC identifies 40 House Democrats at risk (the Republicans identify 25 of their own as at-risk).

In the end, this will all depend on turn out. If the left remains indifferent and the right turns out in force, 2010 could sweep the Republicans back into power in both chambers, but that will take a strong turn out on the right. If the left does turn out, or if the right keeps whining rather than joining the campaign, then the Democrats and Obama will get two more years of doing whatever they please.

It should be an interesting election.