Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Night Of A Thousand Retirements

Ladies and Gentlemen, 2010 is starting off as a banner year. We’re only a few days in and already we’ve seen a series of surprising retirement announcements. The most recent: Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and the creature from Connecticut, Chris Dodd. What does this mean? It means the writing is on the wall and the Democrats are in serious trouble.

With the Democrats’ poll numbers hanging lower than a gangbanger’s pants, a large number of the rats have started leaving the Obamatanic. Over the past couple months, we’ve heard stories of one House Democrat after another deciding that they would not seek re-election. Even a few governors seem to have discovered the writing on the wall, like Colorado’s dipsh*t Democratic governor Bill Ritter. And now the Senate Democrats are getting into the act.

Some Republicans are leaving their seats too, but there is a difference. Those Republicans are leaving their seats to challenge for a higher office and they tend to be leaving safe Republican seats. Many of these Democrats aren’t. Indeed, many of them are in districts that McCain carried by a significant margin. Four such “McCain Democrats” have already announced their retirements (Kansas, Washington and two in Tennessee). One, Alabama House Democrat Parker Griffith, jumped parties.

Just as interesting, Democratic recruits are headed toward the exits as well. In a number of races, the Democrats lined up heavy hitters to challenge incumbent Republicans or to challenge for open seats, and now those people are deciding not to run.

The Hill identifies five such challengers who have withdrawn in recent weeks in Kansas, Texas, Ohio, Tennessee and California -- candidates that the DNC touted as evidence of their recruiting success.

Now the Senate is getting into the act. Polls show that the Democrats are in trouble in Senate races in Illinois and Delaware (Obama and Biden’s old seats), Colorado, Ohio, Nevada (Harry Reid’s seat), Pennsylvania, Arkansas and New York. Even Ted Kennedy’s seat appears to be in reach -- though I put no faith in that remaining true.

Now we add Byron Dorgan to the mix. Dorgan is another of the supposed moderates in the Senate, though there are no moderates in the Senate if you look at their voting records this year. He is retiring because early polls show him trailing Republican Gov. John Hoeven should Hoeven run. This should now become a fairly easy pickup for the Republicans.

Dodd you all know. He’s a crook and an as~hole and recent polls show that he would lose to Hitler. In a way this is a bad development for the Republicans because it allows the Democrats to find a candidate who would be palatable to the electorate. And in a state that appears to be 94% Democratic, such a candidate has a much better chance than Dodd. But that’s not clear. Looking at the national mood, it’s possible that this election will be much worse than the Democrats expect, and this wave of retirements is the evidence that their internal polling has shown them the light.

Consider the following. Republicans continue to lead in the generic polls. Obama’s polls are at a low and continue to fall. The Democrats are slightly less popular than herpes. And they seem intent on moving further left in the hopes of “energizing” a base that has been turned off by their corruption and failures. Indeed, there has been a lively (hateful) debate recently, unnoticed by the media of course, in which various Democrats argued about whether or not to move toward the center or keep moving further left. Further left appears to be winning.

With a massive gap in the enthusiasm of voters foretelling a huge anti-Democrat wave in 2010, and little resistance from the faithful, this could become an interesting election. Right now, the Republicans do not stand to retake either the House or the Senate, but that could change.

If the Republicans sweep the ten seats mentioned above, they would only have 49 seats in the Senate (and they may lose New Hampshire). At the same time, the four seats above leave them with a 36 seat gap in the House, though the DNC identifies 40 House Democrats at risk (the Republicans identify 25 of their own as at-risk).

In the end, this will all depend on turn out. If the left remains indifferent and the right turns out in force, 2010 could sweep the Republicans back into power in both chambers, but that will take a strong turn out on the right. If the left does turn out, or if the right keeps whining rather than joining the campaign, then the Democrats and Obama will get two more years of doing whatever they please.

It should be an interesting election.

21 comments:

LawHawkSF said...

Andrew: In some of these Democratic districts, a generic Republican or one named either Felix D. Cat or Alfred E. Newman will be ahead by 30%. Sadly, unless the doctor gets the wrong Botox mix in San Fran Nan's injections, we're stuck here.

At least I can hold out hope that whichever party controls the House after the 2010 elections, she will no longer be the Speaker. The trend won't help us much in the gubernatorial race, either, since former Gov. Jerry Brown is such a shape-shifter that three-quarters of the population doesn't know what he stands for (including Brown himself). It will take the burgeoning scandal about his connections with and nefarious actions for ACORN which will do him in, if anything. Mrs. Boxer may be in for a serious run for her money, though.

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, California is a lost cause, like Massachusetts. The Republicans need to return to dominating the South, the West and the mid-west.

Writer X said...

It has turned into an interesting year, right out of the gate!

There are even some RINOs who may lose their seats (e.g. McCain) to more conservative Republicans. I know I've mentioned this before but suddenly McCain has turned tough and Conservative. And he's everywhere in AZ. Suddenly he's calling into radio shows. He's having townhalls. It's a post-Christmas miracle. He's "my friending" himself all over the place.

Also, isn't there the same situation in Florida with Crist? I haven't been following that close enough to know.

Great post, Andrew!

LawHawkSF said...

WriterX: I have no idea how I got on Crist's e-mail list here in California. But I don't delete them, because I'm enjoying watching him try to spin himself into a conservative like a whirling dervish. He is also trying to twist his appearances with Obama promoting government giveaways as something positive. Pathetic. I obviously can't vote for him, but maybe he thinks I'll try to register in Florida through ACORN.

Tam said...

I get a tingle up and down my leg (have I heard that somewhere else?) watching the dems drop like flies. Hee hee! I'm feeling a little giddy today.

Writer X said...

LawHawk, Crist has definitely twisted himself into a pickle. The desperation from Crist and McCain is palpable. Suddenly they're poster boys for Conservatism.

AndrewPrice said...

Tam, I agree! LOL! This is all very good news and you have a right to be giddy!

AndrewPrice said...

Writer X, Thanks! Crist is in serious trouble. He's lost supporters and Rubio has either caught up or passed him in the polls. Just yesterday, the Florida Republican party chair (a Crist backer) resigned in the face of conservative opposition.

There are still a couple RINOs, there always will be, but they seem to have lost whatever grasp they had on the party.

Even Steele put out an interesting document the other day accepting the blame on behalf of the party for abandoning their principles under Bush and promising that the party would no longer be swayed by RINOs. It was really a very interesting document.

I think the Great Conservative revival may be at hand!

AndrewPrice said...

Lawhawk, I knew you were a secret Crist supporter. LOL!

StanH said...

Brown moved to within 9% of the Dem in Mass. that’s very good for a liberal Mecca.

“I think the Great Conservative revival may be at hand!” I hear that in Charlton Heston’s voice it has biblical overtones. LOL!

AndrewPrice said...

Stan, LOL! I could totally see Charlton Heston saying that!

CrispyRice said...

“I think the Great Conservative revival may be at hand!”

I hope you guys are right! I keep having this nagging feeling that just as the Dems are moving toward the left, that the Republicans also want to "move to the center" - ie move left. No no no. Ugh.

Also, LawHawk - perhaps I missed this somewhere, but why do you think that Nan won't be Speaker again if the Dems keep the house?

AndrewPrice said...

CrispyRice, The Republicans really are moving right, not left. The ones who wanted to move left almost all lost in the last election, and the party is moving right to meet the Tea Party people.

The only ones talking about moving left are the few editorialist RINOs left, like Brooks. They don't count because no one is listening.

CrispyRice said...

I hope you're right, Andrew, but I often fear that it's just because I pay attention to the other conservatives. I'm concerned that the people who are actually "in charge" of the party and who pick who runs will be running to the center. :-/ There are plenty of RINOs with megaphones out there.

AndrewPrice said...

The people in charge of the party are actually much further right than people think. They see guys like McCain and Snowe and assume that's the party, but that's not who is in the leadership anymore.

Have faith, things are moving in the right direction fast!

BevfromNYC said...

Since Rudy Guiliani decided not to run for anything in NY, our Senate races will go unchallenged and will remain clearly in the Democrat camp. Schumer is probably will go unchallenged and Gillibrand is being challenged by other Democrats. No viable Republicans made themselves known for a challenge. We will probably pick more Republicans in the House, but our Senators aren't going anywhere.

As always, I am cautiously optimistic. November is a long way away...

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, I understand that Peter King is thinking very hard about running against Gillibrand. Last I heard, he would be ahead in the polls if he ran.

That said, I am very disappointed in Guiliani.

Tennessee Jed said...

I think strategically, the right needs to continue to keep heeping scorn on the left. What ultimately takes place on healthcare as well as what is happening with jobs will have a huge impact. Angry voters are motivated voters. Remember, the Democrats got in due to disatisfaction with Republicans rather any particular love of the left.

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, You're absolutely right. We can't let up on the left. Not only do we need to energize our own side, but we need to keep their side demoralized. By keeping up the pressure, by pointing out everything they've done wrong, we manage to achieve both goals.

MegaTroll said...

Now we need a dozen more Democrats retiring! Ha!

AndrewPrice said...

Isn't that the truth! LOL!

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