Why The Democrats Are Doomed

Over the past few days, the media has been struggling to tell you that everyone around you really loves ObamaCare, that it really will make things better if we just click our heels together and wish it so, and that the Democrats really won by passing the bill. But you know better. You know that the Democrats are in serious trouble. Here’s a little proof.

1. For Whom The Poll Tolls.

Immediately after passage, pollster Gallup ran out and conducted an overnight poll which showed slightly more supporters than opponents of ObamaCare. A deluge of articles followed arguing that the public had changed its mind, now that the Democrats had shown that they could actually pass this. But there are three problems with this.

First, overnight polls are unreliable. They catch idiosyncratic segments of the population. Moreover, they overestimate support because people are more likely to be reacting to the overwhelmingly positive portrayal of the plan by the media that day. You may recall the media spewing forth saturation coverage of Pelosi’s “great achievement.”

Secondly, they are comparing Gallup’s overnight poll to other companies’ polls, not Gallup’s prior polls. Gallup showed support and opposition in a statistical dead heat before the magic poll. This was about 9-10% more favorable than other reliable polls, like Rasmussen, found. Thus, comparing Gallup’s magic poll to these other polls produces an apparent 12% surge. Yippee! But that’s not statistically proper, as this is the proverbial comparing of apples to oranges. If you look only at Gallup’s polls, you only get a 3% “surge,” which is equal to all of Obama’s prior bounces. (This represents Democratic support going from 85% to 90%.)

Third, even if you assume Gallup is correct, Gallup still doesn’t show 50% support for ObamaCare. That’s not an endorsement.

Moreover, check out the following chart which shows an amalgamation of polls, with the data points marked. You’ll see that opposition has been growing over time:



This is very bad news for the Democrats because this means that the more people learned, the less they liked. Thus, the chances of improving support by “educating” the public are slim and none.

2. The Death of A Thousand Job and Benefit Cuts.

Making it even hard to “educate” the public, the Democrats worst nightmares are starting already. The Democrats’ biggest fear has been that companies would start dumping employees and killing their benefits plans. Remember, the one thing that kept the public from blowing up the Congress was the promise that you could keep the plan you have and the doctor you like.

So what happened this week? Several companies immediately announced the consequences that their workers would bear as a result of this bill. Apparently, unreported in the media, insurers are already notifying companies that they will be raising rates. In response, AT&T announced that it would be cutting employee benefits plans. Equipment maker Medtronic announced that it would be laying off 1,000 workers because new taxes imposed on its products had cut expected demand. Others have begun making similar announcements.

A series of companies from Caterpillar to John Deere to Valero Energy to 3M to AK Steel, have all announced expenses in the range of $100 million each (this is actually the end of a deduction), which will likely result in them cutting off prescription benefits to their retirees. (AT&T’s charge is one billion dollars.) I note the irony that many of these, Caterpillar in particular, have been heavy supporters of Obama and ObamaCare, and most are unionized.

Young women everywhere (Obama’s biggest supporters outside of blacks) are about to discover the tax on tanning and certain beauty aids. So are vitamin freaks and anyone who wants over the counter medications, like aspirin or allergy medication or even certain baby foods. Some restaurants have announced surcharges to cover their waitstaff’s new benefits. These are real world effects that will be felt by everyone in the country. And since these are repeat purchases, it is unlikely that this affront will be forgotten by November.

3. You Are Wrong Morton Kondracke.

Mort wrote an article trying to explain why the Democrats gained from passing the bill. He claims the Democratic base is now much more excited than it was before. Of course, there is no evidence of this (see 3% bounce above). But what’s more interesting, Mort also dissects the opposition numbers. According to Mort 13% of the opposition comes from people who claim the law isn’t liberal enough. He thus adds those to the support category and concludes that a large majority of the public really likes this bill. Aside from the statistical error of what he’s done, he’s missing the fact that this directly contradicts his assertion about the Democratic base. That 13% are the activists. If they oppose the bill, then there is no way they will suddenly become excited by its passage.

4. Whitey Strikes Back.

What caused the 1994 Republican sweep more than anything, was white males fleeing the Democratic Party. Indeed, their support among white men fell to 38%. The Democrats’ subsequent stupid attacks on white males as “angry white men,” kept the ceiling at 38%. Obama made some headway against this, pulling in the support of 41% of white males. This is likely what pushed him over the top. But white males have left again. Even worse, white male support for Democrats is down to 35%, a number even lower than 1994. White women offer 46% support, which is about 2% less than they gave in 1994. These numbers mean disaster of greater than 1994 proportions for the Democrats.

5. Congressional Disapproval Is Unprecedented.

Finally, there is one more interesting point. The media loves to point out that all Congresses are hated. I generally ignore these polls because they are meaningless. They are too generic and it’s too easy to say you don’t like the institution while continuing to vote for your representative. But here is something interesting.

The following chart shows the public’s support for Congress from 1990-2007. Notice that it only dipped below 20% twice, during both of the two bubble-burst recessions. Other than that, it actually climbed as high as 60% before the Democrats started to return in numbers in 2004.



Now look at the following chart, which shows Congressional approval from 2008 to the present. Notice that the high point was 30% and most of the time was spent below 20%. It currently sits around 15%.



So while the media tries to pass this off as “everyone always hates Congress,” the level of hate is truly unprecedented, as is the duration of this level of disapproval.

And that is why the Democrats are doomed.


**Update: Gallup has reported that Obama's popularity has hit a new low according to their polls -- 46% v. 46%. That's hardly the stuff of a bounce.