The prediction of many on the right is that Trump will now get wasted by Hillary Clinton because Trump is uniquely unpopular among women and minorities, and Hillary has the whole media behind her!! We are DOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMED!!!!!!
Uh, no.
Where to begin. How about this....
1) Trump does no worse among women than any other Republican. Conservatives have really done their best to unify women and blacks and Hispanics and Muslims as an opposition force and that is now bearing fruit. Trump will do no worse than moderate Romney and will probably do better than the likes of Santorum or Cruz.
Moreover, Trump has been doing some things to help him with those voters. Look for a full-court press by his employees and family to present him as secretly a nice, fair, compassionate man.
2) The media is already behind Hillary. For months now, Trump has been smeared by the media left and right and he’s come through it pretty unscathed. In other words, there is no heat to turn up because the MSM has already been firing everything they have at him.
3) Hillary is not an opponent to fear. She’s a horrible public speaker who cackles. She has the warmth of an evil crone. She presents the very stereotype Hollywood uses to sell us on a minor villain. What’s more, she can’t stop putting her foot in her mouth. Be it the people of Indiana (“Indianoplace” as she “jokingly” called them), coal miners, women, or you name it... she keeps pissing people off. Finally, she has no energy to attracted supporters. She’s winning her primary with the lowest turnout in Democratic history. Moreover, she has few friends. Obama won’t support her. Bernie’s not going to help her. Elisabeth Warren won’t save her, nor will John Kerry or Joe Biden. And her husband is a political menace.
4) The GOP civil war... has ended. At this point, the GOP establishment is falling in behind Trump, as talk radio already has. Trump has won the fringe with his vague promises of a Krystalnacht for Muslims and a 10,000 foot tall wall made of bullship to stop the Mexican menace that no longer exists. Moderates began joining him before Florida. That has continued and will continue as he moderates. He has already moderated on most issues and he’s put out the word that his evil image has been for show. He’s also starting to get celebrity endorsements. When that happens, the public will follow. Moreover, groups like Black Lives Matter are working hard to make Trump seem like the victim, that plays well with the public.
5) The Democratic civil war, however, continues. In fact, it’s getting bloodier. Day by day, Bernie and his supporters are getting nastier and nastier about being cheated. And since they can’t win, there is nowhere for that anger to play itself out except at their convention and during the general election. Look for a massive leftist temper tantrum to hobble Bill’s wife.
6) What about the Republicans who refuse to support Trump? First, I doubt there will be very many as those people are already publicly reconsidering. Secondly, he seems to have found replacements for them under rocks and they are voting in record numbers. But even more importantly, Trump leads Clinton by 2% now and those people are already counted in her support. So if all of them refuse to support him, he still wins by 2%.
Consider this. At this point in the race, every prior Republican candidate for President was behind their Democratic opponent in the polls, often by double digits. Even Reagan and Mondale started the race essentially tied, and Reagan went on to score an amazing blowout victory. What you’re seeing right now in Clinton’s numbers are her supporters plus the Republicans who refuse to back Trump plus those who were strategically choosing her to make Trump seem weak against Cruz and Stimpy. Now that Cruz is out and Stimpy is irrelevant(er), those people will shift their allegiance in the polls to Trump, giving him a boost. At the same time, Clinton's numbers will dip slightly to account for this shift as well. That means that Trump's lead should grow by quite a bit. Then you add the herd mentality once it becomes clear he is in the lead and he should cruise to a win. I envision around 310 electoral votes.
This is how I see it playing out. Thoughts?
53 comments:
We still have to wait and see what FBI/DOJ does regarding the Hillary e-mail and Clinton Foundation matters. That has a lot to do with how things shape up. There are people at FBI who will resign and leak if it goes south, so I'm standing by for that. I think that it's likely that Trump will be the next president.
I'm going to be steering clear of politics for a while for the sake of my health (mental, physical, and emotional) so instead I will just post a link to something I wrote back in March on this whole mess: "Politicians, Their Lies, and Us."
LINK
The fact Rasmussen (whose polling told us Romney would beat Obama) is telling us that Romney 2.0 will beat Clinton doesn't fill me with confidence.
Romney 1.0's handwaving away of his primary stances didn't really change anything or anyone. Romney 2.0's handwaving won't either.
I agree Clinton is a horrible candidate utterly lacking in charisma or the ability to say anything anyone will believe (aside from statements of hostility about the coal industry) which is why Trump is her only hope for victory.
Hillary cannot inspire people to vote for her so she needs an opponent who inspires people to vote for her.
If celebrity endorsements meant anything Democrats would perpetually hold supermajorities at all levels of government :) . Yes, such endorsements set Twitter afire, but they don't mean anything in the real world.
I agree Black Lives Matter will work hard to make Trump look sympathetic, but I'm also sure some of his supporters will work hard to do the opposite, throwing beatings on random minorities, groping female protestors, bragging about how they are members of the KKK and what have you.
Clinton being indicted or a major terror attack on US soil would herald a Trump victory otherwise I think Hillary will beat him.
Sadly, Andrew, I think you are right. Like Anthony, I think much hinges on the DOJ and the ongoing investigation into the Clinton Foundation that is heating up and how much Obama abhors the Clintons. Now that Trump is the presumed candiate, he will focus on Clinton and Sanders and hopefully start presenting himself as a real candidate and not just the reality show version of one.
I stated early on that my secret wish was to see a Presidential debate between Trump, the poster child for Capitalism and Sanders, the poster child for Socialism. IT may come true. I should have wished for a pony...
I'm not ready to fall in line yet. I may decide that in the voting booth in November. It all may hinges on who Trump chooses as his running mate. Bloomberg?? Clinton may go with Kerry.
But in any case, as Sherlock Holmes would say, "The game is on!".
My real concern is the redo of '68 convention violence looming large in Cincinnati in July.
Bev -
I think you mean "The game is afoot!" :-)
As someone else pointed out, Trump knows no boundaries when it comes to politics,,he will devastate Hillary in a debate...everyone has always stopped short of hundreds of things they could have brought up when it comes to her, he will bring them up..He will hammer her on The Clinton Foundation, Benghazi, the terrible economy for the last 8 years and immigration as well as coal etc...
Scott - That's the "old Sherlock"! Mine is from the "New, Improved Sherlock"! :-D Season 4 shooting now in South Wales, and airs beginning January!!! Okay, yeah, I'm big fan...Something to look forward to in the run-up to our inevitable decline as a nation (Yeah, that was a little overdramatic, I admit)
As my dad would say, it's all over but the cryin'. For all the differences that have been pumped up about this election so far, I believe the historic trend of Republicans gaining ground on the way to November and Democrats losing it will hold true again.
For starters, it's already happening. Even if one dismisses the Rasmussen Poll, the RCP average shows Trump has been closing in on Hillary since the bulk of the primary pack dropped out. He did have tighter numbers back in winter, but that was when he was a novelty. The reset button came when things got serious and since then, Hillary's lead has been cut in half.
Oh boy.
Kasich to Suspend Campaign
LL, I tend to see an indictment unlikely until after she loses. I think Obama would be worried he would be seen as the guy who made her lose. And right now, he can let that hang over her, helping her lose, and then get her when it's safe.
Kit, That's a great decision! Put all of this aside once in a while, take a break, enjoy life and remind yourself of the good things in life and America.
It looks like Kasish has suspended his campaign too. Of course, there is now speculation that he stayed in to be a spoiler for Trump against Cruz. Who cares at this point unless Trump chooses Kasich for VP or choice cabinet post. I'm thinking Cruz won't get either. Though I would still like to see him as AG. I think he'd make a darn fine AG.
But then I am thinking that the Dems in NY would LOVE to see Preet Bharara as AG just to get of their backs.
You know, this is how the Two Party system works, it isn't perfect, however, it beats the Hell out of the parliamentary systems in the rest of the world where you have to get 2,3, 4, 8 parties together to get a majority and it only lasts for a few months..our system works, imperfect as it is. The grueling campaigns for president etc can tell you a lot about a candidate. I will vote for Trump,,,from what I saw of Cruz, Kasich, Bush and others,,,well, he seems to know something....
Anthony, I don't consider polling as reliable at this point. As I noted, every Republican is always far behind the Democrats at this point. So obviously, they are no reliable. BUT the fact that Trump is tied or just ahead strikes me as significant given that every other Republican has started from behind.
I don't see Trump inspiring the opposition. The attacks I've seen against him have all been half-hearted... "He's like Hitler!" Yawn. There's no energy in the attacks. Even the attempts to disrupt his campaign have been few and far between and have generally been loaners looking to aggrandize themselves. The one except is the Black Lives Matter and Make America Mexico Again crowd, who turn the public off.
Celebrities matter because they make someone acceptable, not because they make them desirable. Basically, being able to point to celebrities tells the public that a candidate has been judged to be someone you can support without fear of being considered fringe. It's a pass/fail thing which Republicans typically fail.
Bev, I think Trump will change now. There are already efforts in place to change his image. First, he put out the word to conservatives that he way lying about being fringe. Then he set his family to talk up how great and fatherly he is. Now he's making up with each of the other opponents. A week or two ago, he attacked the gay bathroom stuff and even invited Caitlyn Jenner to use the bathroom at one of his buildings. I suspect you will soon see him say the word "pass to citizenship".
If he's smart, his running mate will be a female CEO he has hired.
Bev, I think the only danger of violence comes from the left, and that won't play well. 68 hurt the Democrats because it called into question what kind of insane party they were. If BLM attack the Republican convention, it will only highlight how nasty and desperate the left remains and people will hold that against the Democrats, not Trump. Especially when Trump says, "Look outside. Are those the people you want leading America?"
Critch, I agree. And it's not just that he will go father, it's that she won't have any idea how to respond. It's like finding yourself in a yo' mama so fat contest when you've never seen one. You have no idea how to fight back. Not to mention, Hillary is so hypersensitive that she will take genuine insult and her anger will kick in and make her flustered.
tryanmax, That is the trend and I too see it happening here. For one thing, Hillary's support numbers still include anti-Trump Cruz and Kasich supporters For another, people tend to view the candidates through the media filter until they start paying attention for themselves. When they do, their opinions tend to shift. Third, with the GOP press no longer trying to destroy him, a big source of the things holding his numbers down will now go away.
Bev and Scott, I don't believe any conspiracy theory when it comes to Kasich. He hung in there because he believed that he could get the moderate states once Cruz imploded. Unfortunately for him, those moderates left for Trump, leaving him little.
Critch, I agree that this is better. These people need to win over the public. If they do, then we move forward. Compare that with countries like Spain and Belgium where they can't form governments because they have to many competing parties.
I'll vote for Trump too and hope he turns out well.
Andrew,
With all due respect, you were saying Trump is moderating is tone and sounding more presidential even as he accused Cruz's father of killing JFK.
Kit, There's a difference between moderating his tone to not turn off voters and not lobbing silly attacks against his opponents. Too many conservatives are confusing the two. Trump will never "fight like a gentleman" because those rules don't work in modern America -- Bush tried that and made himself into a punching bag. But he is dropping ideas that lose him voters -- like attacking gay issues.
Too many conservatives want our political game to be a debating society, but it's not. Trump has, correctly I think, diagnosed politics as a form of reality TV or sport, where you can play "the heel" and still be loved. The key to being loved it to be witty, to one-up the other guy, and to prove that you have a thick skin. You only lose if you show yourself to be pissy or inept, or if you start saying things that are outside the bounds by modern standards of "hurtfulness," i.e. race jokes, gay jokes, fat jokes, handicapped jokes, using the word "bitch" or the c-word.
And on the lighter side: May the 4th Be With You! :-D
And tomorrow is The Revenge of the 5th. :)
Bravo, Andrew!!!
Andrew,
I agree polling isn't reliable, but I also think iconic statements define politicians and shape the nature of their support. Hillary's determination to destroy the coal industry, Obama's disdain for people who 'cling' to God and guns, Romney's disdain for the working poor, Trump's disdain for women and minorities.
Its worth bearing in in mind that white men are only 35% of the modern electorate and a fair chunk of them are die hard Democrats (I don't think the total of white men voting Democrat has sunk below 37% in a presidential election).
I believe white male support for Trump will go a little beyond that traditional limit, but I also suspect outside of white males, support for Hillary will surge so Trump will still lose, barring a Clinton indictment or a terror attack.
"You only lose if you show yourself to be pissy or inept, or if you start saying things that are outside the bounds by modern standards of "hurtfulness," i.e. race jokes, gay jokes, fat jokes, handicapped jokes, using the word "bitch" or the c-word."
He's done at least a few of those things.
Anyway, I still stand by my earlier view, America is in decline and we may be passing the point of no return.
Things will only get worse from here.
Honestly, we don't need to elect him to figure him out. We know it already because we've seen him before with names like Peron, De Kirchner, Erdogan, FDR, Andrew Jackson, and Berlusconi.
He will run on a left-wing economic platform (regardless of what the RNC does) and will sick the FBI and IRS on scapegoats, in politics, media, and business.
And the American people will love it. They will love every goddamn minute of it. And as they get poorer and worse off they will cheer him on even more as he goes after them. It won't help them but it will satisfy their blood lust.
The only good news is that we survived FDR when he pulled this crap, but, then again, we had a political party that could oppose him. Now, we have two left-wing parties.
So, there really isn't any good news.
We are now entering a new era in American history: Decline. Next up is probably a military coup sometime in the 2050s followed by proscription.
Lastly, though I cannot in good conscience vote for Trump or Hillary, I understand people who will vote for either. There are simply no good options.
So, best wishes. We are living in interesting times.
Kit- I agree with you. I cannot on good conscience vote for either myself. Bit have faith in the American Spirit of libertarian self-determination. There are too many of us to allow this country to decline and disappear. There is a pendulum arc to this. We are just swinging away right now. We will correct our course. That is a personal promise. I will go to the ramparts with you!
Proposal: use science to merge the two likely candidates into a single entity known as Donnelly Crumpton. That will at least reduce confusion.
Kit, much has been made about how the Trump candidacy has been unlike any candidacy before it. I find it somewhat overblown, but I'll run with it. If the Trump candidacy is unprecedented, just wait til you see the Trump presidency. I don't believe any of your predictions will hold because I don't believe anybody's predictions will hold on that matter. Certainly we haven't seen in most folks' lifetime a president who will likely be opposed by what is ostensibly his own party. There's also a possibility that he'll be embraced by his alleged opposition. Heck! If it's all about The Deal® I wouldn't put it past Trump to switch parties while in office. It'll be interesting, to be sure. We may even reach that constitutional crisis both sides of the media have been breathless for. But what it won't be is predictable.
For my part, I hope Bernie runs third-party and wins. Let's just rip the band-aid off on this American socialism experiment. They'll be chanting "one and done" from the bread lines in the fall of 2020.
Piers Morgan is kind of an ass, but every once in a while, he is insightful. I think his analysis of Trump is one such moment. He seems to grasp the optics Trump presents and how his confidence is selling him far beyond expectations. It's a good read.
LINK
tryanmax, In all honesty, Trump reminds me of Reagan's 1980 candidacy. Reagan too was supposedly saying "outrageous" and "stupid" things, which the media and establishment failed to notice were resonating with the public. He was supposed to destroy the GOP too if he became the nominee. They even ran Anderson as an alternative to keep Reagan from winning.
And then, for years, they marveled at his teflon, which kept things like his divorce, his "gaffes" (i.e. his jokes or open conservatism), and his hill billy lack of sophistication from bringing him down with the public.
Now, I'm not calling him Reagan -- not by a long shot, but he is reaching the public in the same way and the same suspects as before are refusing to see it.
P.S. while letting Bernie destroy the country seems to have the appeal of teaching the public a lesson, the truth is that the left never learns that lesson. Russia, Eastern Europe, China in the 1960s, Africa between the 1960s and 1980s, South America in the 1970s, Britain in the 1970s, Vietnam in the 1970s/1980s, Venezuela in the 1990s/2000s... all destroyed by socialism typically with thousands to millions killed, and the yet the left honestly will tell you that socialism has never been tried and each of these groups was essentially a right-wing regime.
Bev and Kit, America is fine.
Andrew,
I'm alternating between acceptance and depression. I'm on the fence.
Anthony, I would disagree. I think Hillary is incapable of rallying the support of women or minorities who aren't naturally excited to vote down every meanie Republican. And I don't think Trump is enough of a lightening rod to excite anyone on the left to turn out - he's too complex. I truly do not see the level of energy needed.
In fact, everywhere I look, I see the left spending their ammo shooting Obama and Hillary. They seem rather angry with Obama, and just as the fringe right focused obsessively on the GOP, I think the fringe left is starting to do the same with the Democrats.
I would also suggest that here's what will happen with the various groups -- notice how most don't matter:
1. Trump exceeds the normal total with white males. (60-65%). He does particularly well with working class white males, who don't normally vote. This helps deliver Ohio, Wisconsin, Penn, and the rest of fly-over country. This makes Massachusetts competitive.
2. Trump wins older white women by a wide margin. They always turn out. This wins him Florida and fly-over country and the states mentioned in (1).
3. Younger white women, like college students, stay home. Their normally poor turn out falls 10%. They are concentrated on the coasts, which will hurt Hillary in California, Maryland, Oregon, and New York.
4. Gay turn out all but vanishes. This hurts Hillary in Florida, New York, Maryland, California.
5. Black turn out falls significantly without the Democrat being black. I would say down 10% or 1.5% of electorate. But the black vote doesn't matter in most places, like the South. The states where this matters are Maryland, New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
6. Muslims don't vote. But they all live in Michigan or New Jersey, which should normally be Hillary country.
7. Hispanic turn out is up, but it's concentrated in California, which goes to Hillary, Georgia and Texas which go to Trump no matter what, and New York which may swing to Trump for other reasons.
8. Jews, New York City "ethnic whites," and NYC financiers support Trump. This MAY be enough to give him New York. At the very least, it swings New York into the uncertain category.
9. Trump wins New Jersey, New Hampshire and Nevada because of business ties.
Taking this all together, I see Clinton having to fight to defend blue states like New York, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Wisconsin... maybe Maryland too. No Democrat has had to worry about these since Bush I.
"Swing" states Ohio, Florida and Nevada lean heavily to Trump. Colorado is unclear.
The only red/purple state that might shift toward Hillary is Virginia.
This is a mess for Hillary.
Kit, Seriously, get out into the country, away from the political class. You will find that America is a vibrant, inventive, free country that keeps improving itself and the world and doesn't really care what the political class does. Watching too much politics is like judging the world from the inside of an asylum.
I think conservative media has shifted from #neverTrump into Trump denial. Everywhere I turn, some pundit is declaring Trump can't possibly win because he's doing terribly with some magic demographic. To me, it looks like grasping at straws. As Andrew already points out, most of these demos are concentrated in places that neuter their influence.
Andrew,
Hillary can't really anyone's support. She is a weak candidate devoid of charisma.
Trump not being a lightening rod is certainly a novel argument.
I agree most groups don't matter in most places. But they matter in enough places to be a problem for Trump.
1. Trump will outperform the Republican norm among white males.
2. Older white woman usually vote Republican, barring an extraordinary act that won't change. 'Look at that face' Trump is fully capable of such an act.
3. Similarly, stupidity by Trump or his surrogates could spur the young white woman vote (remember Fluke?).
4. As I predicted, the Supreme Court's ruling didn't impact attitudes. While Trump clearly has no problem with gays, the fringe and most of the rest of the of the party leadership does and Trump's SC picks would have to get by Congress. So in 2016 I don't see the gay vote changing appreciably.
5. I agree black turnout is likely to fall but sufficient idiocy on Trump's part could keep it from falling far.
6. Muslims don't normally vote but Trump's proposed national registry and ban will change that.
7.Hispanic turnout will be up and Trump will have even Cubans voting against him in high numbers.
8. Jews flipping to Trump would be a big deal. Seems unlikely to me. Trump has a Jewish daughter but he also openly caters to KKKers who see Jews as a problem to be solved (not too long ago Trump told a group of Jewish Republicans they would oppose him because he wouldn't let their money control him).
Anthony, I really don't see Trump as a lightening rod for bringing out leftist support. Think back to Bush, Cheney, Newt, Palin, or even Reagan in the 1980s. Just the mention of their names brought out the knives from ordinary liberals and leftists... racists, war criminals, guardians of corporate interests, stupid, etc. There were a million memes about these men. Films did and still mock them -- Will Ferrel just signup for and then back out of a film that mocks Reagan's Alzheimers (talk about low)!
Every leftist group would turn out to disrupt their speeches, musicians attacked them to open concerts, news reporters made up scandals when they couldn't find any. "Reagan wants to start a war!" "Bush is sending American troops into combat without body armor!" "Cheney wants to give Iraq to Haliburton!" and so on. Do you remember the bile that was brought up at the mention of Palin?
All Trump gets is a generic, "He's like Hitler, he wants to round up Muslims and build a wall to keep out illegals!" And that's half-hearted. Even the memes attacking him personally are often accompanied with simultaneous attacks on Hillary and rarely go further than his hair.
I'm not saying the let doesn't attack him. They do. They attack all conservatives reflexively. But there's no energy in it and no focus.
Let me add two more responses. First, most of these states were settled by a percent or two. If he outperforms among white men, that swings the state. Clinton essentially needs to hit 100% turnout on her people while Trump slips. That's not happening.
Secondly, a lot of the points you raise are what I hear from the conservative media that opposes Trump... things that might happen. "He could say something stupid." I don't accept that as a criticism because (1) the same is true with any candidate (Cruz and Hillary were both just as likely to be stupid) and (2) that kind of attack isn't evidence of a failure, it's evidence only of your belief that he's a bad candidate.
Andrew,
Keep in mind I'm talking about minorities and women, not necessarily leftists. 'Women, you have to treat them like shit' is an actual Trump quote. Trump's attitude towards women has played quite well in the Republican primary 'You sure put Fiorina, Kelly and Cruz's wife in their place you're the man I have fantasized being' but generals are broader (read: have a higher percentage of female voters) than Republican primaries.
As for my position being in line with the current position of the conservative media, fine and good. I've held it for longer than they have :) . Three years ago I said the same thing I am now.
http://commentaramapolitics.blogspot.com/2013/04/news-round-up.html
As for Hillary Clinton, I don't have much respect for her as politician but as I've noted before, minority or female politicians often induce the other side to show their ass (Palin's biggest contribution to the party is the vitriol she has been attacked with by some liberals).
I can see a high profile idiot (no names need be said) triggering a sort of rally round the flag effect by attacking Hillary the wrong way (nods towards Bill Clinton's comparison of Obama to Jesse Jackson).
Anthony,
The thing is, turnout is key. And Clinton needs full turnout on the left plus she needs to inspire women/minorities in the middle to turn out as well. She is struggling to get the left to turn out and she's shown little in the way of ability to excite moderate women or minorities.
That means her only hope is that Trump inspires them for her, but that's not happening. Right now, women and independents who are left but like to think they are neutral seem indifferent between the two. And the left has decided to go to war with Obama and to criticize Hillary in the process. Their turnout is way down too.
I think the problem is that Trump is too complex for them to find a reason to hate him. For one thing, he's not really right wing. He's a mishmash of positions -- opposed to illegals, but not Mexicans, and he hires lots of them. He's pro-gay. His abortion position is clearly for show. He's not theocratic. He's a celebrity they enjoy. His family is beautiful and made up of strong women who strongly vouch for him, which means he can't be bad to women. He hires strong women. He says stupid stuff, but he kind of laughs it off as "just politics" which comes across as less cynical than the politicians who do the same thing and then act like they really believe it. He's a billionaire so he knows how to make money and employee people.
It's hard to take someone like that and say, "He's ___ and needs to be stopped!" because he's all over the place. Compare that to Cruz, who was easy to mock as an angry religious nut.
On the gaffe idea, I agree with you in a general sense. Some people are prone to self-destruction and we should hold that against them. But this has become all the anti-Trump forces have, and they are acting like it's unique. It's not. This is a common problem with GOP candidates. What's more, it's generally a bigger problem for typical GOP candidates. Consider this. Trump has pushed aside his gaffes with no damage outside of the anybody but Trump ranks. Yet, they keep claiming the next gaffe will be the end.
What's more, the reason Trump's gaffes haven't hurt him is key. The difference is this... most Republicans implode because their views are way out-of-touch and when they whip out some statement like "abortion is the greatest crime in America" or "women must be submissive," they scare the hell out of the public. Those are obsessive "true believer" positions which worry the public. Trump's gaffs are just rudeness, and he then covers them up by saying he was only playing politics, i.e "I wasn't serious." That suggests that he does worry about the concerns of the public and that he's not hopelessly ideological. In other words, there's nothing to fear. By comparison, other GOP candidates tend to double down, thereby showing that they don't care that this bothers the public because they view their own moral beliefs as superior to the will of the people.
That's why these things don't generate outrage or stick to Trump, whereas they do normally stick to other GOP candidates.
"I literally put my hands to my face and sobbed, silently, for I suppose a minute.
Because my country is in trouble.
Because I felt anguish at all the estrangements.
Because some things that shouldn’t have changed have changed.
Because too much is being lost. Because the great choice in a nation of 320 million may come down to Crazy Man versus Criminal..." -Peggy Noonan
I understand what she was feeling. All this promise in the begining with good, solid conservatives all down to Trump. What seems to be working with him is his lack of ideology and that is what he will run on. Hillary? Isn't she no different than the last 4 presidents? Are you truly better off? How about a better future with a better country? I will do everything to make America #1 again. It resonates.
Andrew,
I disagree with your statement Trump isn't really right wing. There are many parts of the modern Republican coalition (because it is one of two viable parties). Among other groups, there are small government conservatives, social conservatives, free market/free trade types, gun enthusiasts, libertarians and racists/nativists. Trump is clearly in that last group.
The racists/nativists consider themselves victims (perpetually) of an elite which doesn't care about them and is the reason for all the disappoints in their life. Such people have been 'victims' their whole lives, even back when America's economy was booming. They view Trump as their hope of salvation. What he will do to save them is absolutely unclear since he contradicts himself on policy issues 12 times a day before breakfast. He is the man they hope can live up to impossible promises and can save them from their lives.
Racists expect politicians to strategically deny them but Trump has gone out of his way to embrace them (he has retweeted white supremacists, talked about Jewish dominance through, overrepresented the black community's crime problem (though the reality is horrible enough to scare any sane person IMHO) and called into question the loyalty/citizenship of non-whites that have stood in his way.
I've long been of the opinion (though I traditionally focus those criticisms on the black community) that while politicians impact the lives of normal people the average person's life is the mostly the result of their personal decisions (a point I have made again and again in articles about crime and education over the years). If you are a high school dropout who isn't an entrepreneur or who doesn't boast a rare skillset, it doesn't matter who is in office, you probably aren't going to be earning much.
Last and least, a politician being supported by his children (who he sometimes talks about having sex with), his third wife and his current employees is utterly unremarkable.
Kit,
Have you been reading Sowell recently? He is despondent. His big hope seems to be a military coup. I share his pessimism about Trump, but I am more optimistic about America and its institutions.
I think as with Obama, America can survive Trump and that whatever damage he does will be reversible. Of course, reversal would need America to pick someone outside the Trump/Obama mold (big talkers with no records of achievement)...
Once both sides have been disappointed by populists perhaps they will look for strong leaders and administrators (read: governors who have run their states well) rather than just smooth talkers.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/434521/donald-trump-conservative-supporters-making-mistake?target=author&tid=900925
It was bad enough for the voters to make the colossal mistake of being taken in by appearances and ignoring realities. But to repeat that very same mistake with Trump, immediately after the Obama administration, is truly staggering. How many pied pipers are we going to follow off to parts unknown? At this late date, there is no point itemizing the many things that demonstrate Trump’s gross inadequacies for being president of the United States. Trump himself has demonstrated those gross inadequacies repeatedly, at least weekly and sometimes daily. Those who do not believe their own eyes and ears are certainly not going to believe any words of mine, or of anyone else. What William James called “the will to believe” is still as powerful today as it was when he coined the phrase more than a century ago. But what is there about Donald Trump that taps into that powerful current of credulity?
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http://www.nationalreview.com/article/434836/donald-trump-campaign-finance-reform-global-warming-fate-america?target=author&tid=900925
One of the problems with being a pessimist is that you can never celebrate when you are proven right. If what you want from politicians are quick and easy answers, someone is sure to supply them, regardless of which party you follow. History can tell you where quick and easy answers lead. But, if you don’t want to bother reading history, you can just wait and relive its catastrophes.
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Republican leaders seem to be worried that Donald Trump will get the nomination and lose the election. Those of us who are not Republicans should worry that Trump will get the nomination and win the election. After all, the fate of the country is a lot more important than the fate of a political party — and in far greater danger. As this country continues to degenerate, we hope that it never reaches the desperate stage where only a military coup can rescue it from catastrophes created by feckless politicians. But, if that day ever arrives, we can only hope that the military will do their duty and step in. It is one of the few institutions dedicated to something besides individual self-interest.
Not Kit, Kosh. Sorry.
Koshcat, I think Trump resonates because (1) he's confident, (2) he seems to have a (vague) vision of a better America, and (3) he comes across as practical. That all appeals to Americans. Too much of conservatism these days comes across as dour, depressed, rudderless and weak. In that regard, he's a breath of fresh air.
Anthony, He is the man they hope can live up to impossible promises and can save them from their lives.
This is very true. That's his supporters in a nutshell.
On the racists being part of the right, I can't deny that at the moment, though they don't fit ideologically. They kind of drift from left to right and back again and we currently have them. It's unfortunate.
On his kids and family, in this case they do matter. Cruz being backed by his family doesn't matter because we only know them as props in his campaign. But Trump's family is different because they are independently famous. Each has hundreds of thousands of their own followers and a positive reputation long before this campaign. So when they stick with him, they are throwing all of that goodwill behind him when they could have simply ducked out. Plus, Trump's wife is super hot and, as silly as it sounds, that will resonate with people.
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