Monday, July 4, 2016

A Couple Thoughts...

Since most of you are bloated from your Fourth of July Turkey Dinners, I offer a lite article today for easy digestion. Wait, wrong holiday. Oh well. Here are some thoughts.

Waning Patriotism: By now, you've all seen the article about Americans being less patriotic than evvvvvvver!! Don't believe it. First, the 52% headline number is not Americans who are patriotic, it is Americans who are "extremely proud" of America. That's a category that doesn't even exist most countries. Another 29% say they are "very proud". That's 81% total who are extremely or very proud. That's pretty impressive. Another 13% are "moderately proud." So a total of 81% are extremely or very proud, and 94% are at least moderately proud. Only 5% are "only a little proud" and all of 1% are "not proud at all."

Patriotism is not on the wane.

So why is this 52% number down from 70% right after 9/11? Well, that's to be expected as 9/11 was an artificial high water mark because of the human tendency to circle the wagons when one of their own gets attacked. It's even more understandable given the contentious election cycle, what has each side tearing down their own side in addition to hating the others. Frankly, I'm surprised the number isn't worse. Anyways, don't believe it. Just try finding the 81% and 94% numbers anywhere else.

Occupied: Bernie's supporters are apparently planning an Occupy type invasion of the Democratic Convention. Oh please! please! please! please! please! please!

Trump-thusiam: Trump has started making smarter moves of late. His latest is to flirt with Mike Pence as a possible VP candidate. This is the sort of thing that will finally neuter the anti-Trump movement on the right. Indeed, Trump's support among Evangelicals is apparently rising. By the way, none of this counts until the summer ends. That's when the election actually begins.

Sticky Bill: By and large, political scandals don't stick like people think they do. The reason is that, often times, people either don't care about the issue or it's something they assume everyone does. For example, attacking Clinton for having an affair was stupid because most Americans don't think adultery should be "criminalized" (i.e. it's a private thing for couples to sort out), and they think everyone rich and powerful is doing it anyways, so they don't see a valid reason in singling out one guy. On the other hand, scandals that do stick are the ones that go against public morality (e.g. kiddie sex), that involve hypocrisy (e.g. religious types caught in sexually perverted activities), or that involve taking advantages the public doesn't get.

I am thinking that Bill meeting with Attorney General Lynch, when both his Foundation and Hillary are under investigation, will have legs. The reason is that few in the public think it's acceptable to try to influence a criminal probe and many, especially the lower and middle classes, feel that they get made examples of by prosecutors while rich people skate by making behind the scene deals... and they don't like that. Meeting with Lynch could have been a serious mistake, especially with Hillary now saying she wants Lynch to stay on. Of course, she does... because you bought her.


By the way, I wrote a rant against 60's films at the film site.


AndrewPrice said...

As an aside, I suspect the 1% and 5% are the delicates.

Anthony said...

Bernie supporters occupying the Dem convention would be awesome.

As for Trump, I doubt VP picks matter to voters (Has anyone ever said 'The top of the ticket doesn't inspire me, I'm excited by the underticket!) but I'm sure Evangelicals will vote for Trump. He has signaled he will give them everything they want on abortion (though not gays).

A smart move by Trump would be refraining from retweeting the stuff white supremacists send him, but that isn't going to happen. That sort of thing didn't hurt him at all in the Republican primary, but could be part of a suicide by a thousand cuts in the general.

I agree the Clinton Lynch meeting will resonate through the campaign. It supports the near universal perception that the Clintons are unprincipled liars who think the rules don't apply to them.

I suspect this won't be the last time Bill is involved in a highly damaging scandal in 2016. Hillary is no more honest, but her 2016 campaign strategy seems to be 'Do and say nothing because I can only get myself in trouble'.

Kit said...



Kit said...

I'm going to make a daring and bold prediction:

Hillary will not be indicted.

BevfromNYC said...

I don't think that any of the Clinton investigations matter because, even if Comey recommends indictment and Lynch signs off on it just to save her stupid butt, Obama will issue a full pardon for anything she or Bill might have ever done illegal in their lives. And the Clinton Foundation will be able to legally take money from foreign countries in exchange for financially beneficial political favors for th F.O.B.H. & C. Global Wealth Coopertiave a/k/a The Clinton Foundation. I put money on it.

I just wonder how Huma and Blumenthal will be able to juggle working forth Clinton Foundation an d and be the most trusted WH staffers closest to our Presidents Clinton?

Koshcat said...

The scandals around Clinton won't bring her down but they keep her from rising. People especially on the right and most in the middle don't like her and don't trust either of them. This is why it is so infuriating when Trump acts like a 7 year old poor sport who lost a soccer game whenever something negative comes his way.

Kit said...

FBI Director Comey to make an announcement at 11am EST. They won't disclose what the topic is.

However, Obama will make his first appearance at a Clinton campaign rally at 2:25.

Kit said...

Anthony, Koschat,

Hillary's campaign strategy is to stay off the news radar.
Trump's campaign strategy is to stay on the news radar.

Both are, for the most part, succeeding. The question is: Whose campaign strategy is wiser?

Kit said...

Anyway, in happier news, Sonny Bunch tweeted this revelation:

"INDEPENDENCE DAY: a GOP prez & the U.S. military save the world while hippies get blown up and a liberal busybody learns to love smoking."


"a black female voter is overwhelmingly likely to vote D, Vivica A Fox "voted for the other guy." Also..."
"...Fred Barnes defends him and Eleanor Clift criticized him on The McLaughlin Show. Dead giveaways."


tryanmax said...

Has anyone ever said 'The top of the ticket doesn't inspire me, I'm excited by the underticket!

That's essentially the Palin phenomenon in a nutshell. No, she didn't deliver a win, but clearly she mattered to voters a great deal.

Besides, I think that's the wrong rubric to apply. The VP nom isn't meant to generate enthusiasm for him/herself (that's where Palin backfired). The VP nom is chosen to bolster support for the prez candidate, to shore up the candidate's weak side.

To that end, applying interest in the VP nom to "voters" in general is still the wrong rubric. The idea isn't to generate interest among all voters. It is to generate interest among voters on the margin. It's beside the point to assert that all or even most voters don't care because it only matters whether some voters care.

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, I think the VP matters to the extent that it gives a group of people who are "unsure" a little more confidence. It lets people who say, "is he really one of us?" think, "Oh, he is one of us, he wants to work with out guy." Beyond that, I agree though that it doesn't matter.

I also agree about Bill. He's the gift that keeps on giving.

I think the meeting with Lynch resonates for the simple fact that people are already upset about celebrities getting special treatment, and here is Hillary shamelessly seeking it. I think that will continue the corruption death of a thousand cuts she is undergoing. Does it sway an election? Not sure, but it hurts.

AndrewPrice said...

Sadly, Kit, that's not a bold prediction. She was never going to get indicted.

We don't indict people like Hillary when they are running for office. If we do indict them, it's after they've stepped away from limelight.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, I don't think the investigations matter because the public doesn't care about them. They see all politicians as corrupt, as trading money for favors and as mixing their campaign money with their booze and broads money. They also don't care about email servers. That's all too inside baseball and too "yeah, they all do it."

That said, I do believe that meeting with Lynch will matter. That one leaves a bad taste with the public. You see this every time a celebrity gets off or avoids jail with a plea bargain -- they instantly assume privilege and they foam at the mouth over it.

Now here you have Bill and Hillary rubbing the same thing in their faces. That's bad.

I think this further dampens her enthusiasm, makes it much harder for supporters to sell her to average people at get togethers, and further eliminates her benefit of the doubt.

It doesn't lead to a mass abandonment, but it prevents her from growing her support base. She basically stuck with Democratic loyalists and a few anti-Trump conservatives.

AndrewPrice said...

Koshcat, I think that's accurate. The scandals won't bring her down, but they keep her from rising up.

BevfromNYC said...

I predict Comey will announce that he is resigning...

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, That is a funny tweet for an entertaining and fundamentally conservative film. It's strange that it could have been made by Roland Emmerich, whose other films are intensely anti-American and hatefully anti-conservative.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, I think that's absolutely right. The VP isn't meant to win over voters. The VP slot is meant to assure whatever group that might support you but isn't sure that you are one of them.

Hence, if you have a problem with Evangelicals, you pick Mike Pence. If you have a problem with commies, you pick Bernie Sanders. If you have a problem with the country clubbers, you pick GW Bush. If you have a problem with people thinking you're lightweight, you pick Al Gore or Dick Cheney. Etc.

I still think Trump should pick a woman, but I'm not sure what woman would satisfy the right flank... if any.

BevfromNYC said...

Andrew - Sorry, I don't buy it that most people don't care of about Clintons lying and getting away with stuff like feathering their own nest with foreign campaign contributions dressed up as "charity". If people didn't care she wouldn't be polling at a consistent 41-43% without 3rd Party contender and as Trump as her opposition.

And if Comey comes back today with a "the FBI has found no wrog doing and recommends dropping any investigations", it only proves that what happened at the Clinton/Lynch tarmac meeting is exactly what we all know it was - buy off of the DOJ and the Attorney General.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, Comey's going to announce of change of slogan from "Fidelity, Bravery Integrity" to "The Least Justice Money Can Buy."

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, I don't think the public cares about any of the scandals specifically. I think what keeps Clinton down is (1) simple fatigue, the same way the Bush's poll in the same numbers, (2) the general air of corruption that surrounds the Clintons make them seem shady in an unlikable way (keep in mind, people love mobsters), (3) her haggish personality, and (4) her inability to demonstrate any period in her life where she was competent. She's just an unlikable, tiresome, talentless elitist. I don't think the public cares that she enriches herself with donations.

BevfromNYC said...

Comey said "Nothing to see here." So, my decision is made.

I am going to vote for Trump. Hillary cannot be our next President, and I am willing to vote for Satan if it will keep the Clintons et al. out of the WH.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, I kind of liked my press conference idea better.

Sadly, I am not surprised. She was never going to be indicted. Our justice system doesn't hold the politically connected accountable.

Anonymous said...

Apparently Comey DOES play that. I liked his very pointed use of the word "no reasonable prosecutor" vs saying "a prosecution would not be reasonable or would be unreasonable"

Critch said...

Comey would go after an FBI agent who did the same thing...that SOB was bought and paid was Lynch.

BevfromNYC said...

Good for Comey. I hope the payoff was worth it. Usually the ones who are paid off by the Clintons end up dead in a park or lonely country road though. Fair warning.

No doubt, he will be "offered" a cushy job at the really important law firm of his choice, or a special place at the "Clinton Foundation For Good Works That Don't Cost Too Much So's We Can Pay Our 'Bills'[and 'Hills'"].

Kit said...


EPorvaznik said...

In my best Connery, what...are we (the people) do?!?!

AndrewPrice said...

So the crimes that get famous people in trouble are:

1. Insider trading... (does not apply to politicians or banks)

2. Sex with kids... (does not apply to musicians)

3. Crimes of violence if caught on tape.

4. Any crime performed at a hotel, see e.g. OJ, Nixon.

5. Saying something racist or sexist.

6. Attempted genocide.

I believe that's the complete list.

EPorvaznik said...

>>2. Sex with kids... (does not apply to musicians)>>

Or movie directors/producers/actors.

AndrewPrice said...

Eric, True! I forgot about that exception.

AndrewPrice said...

BTW, FBI Director Jamesishillary'sbitch Comey said that he didn't believe Hillary intended to violate the law, hence no charges.

Uh, almost no one sets out to intend to violate a law. They act generally without worrying about the law or in ignorance of the law or on the spur of the moment without even knowing what law is. Are we going to let all those people go now?

EPorvaznik said...

Pitchforks and torches. That is all.

BevfromNYC said...

Andrew - You need to add a clear exception to list of famous people crimes - "Except for Clintons and Friends of Clintons" Or maybe that was just implied (or inferred...whatevs)

I am pretty sure some of those "allegedly" rapes by Bill Clinton happened in hotels. Of course the rape of underaged girls happened on a private island, so that doesn't count.

Anthony said...

Hillary not being charged is no surprise, but everyone knows she is guilty so a price will be paid in November.

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