Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Hillary's Sale Pitch Fails

With Bev entertaining guests, I'll take her place tonight... Is Hillary qualified to be President? People don't think so, and that's disastrous for her.

There was a poll released the other day after Obama called Hillary the most qualified candidate in history. The reason Obama said this is that this is the crux of Hillary’s campaign. She has no achievements, no ideological platform or grandiose ideas, and no personality. What she’s running on is: “I’m really qualified!” And now that Trump is her opponent, she’s specifically running on: “I’m more qualified than him!” For weeks now, this has been her sales pitch. All of her comments center around it. Her attacks center around it. Her ads are focused on it. Her political allies, i.e. Obama, all repeat it. And her friends in the media sell it.

She got 22%. 65% disagreed.

That’s awful! And it gets worse. When asked if she’s more qualified than Trump, only 41% thought she was more qualified. By comparison, 40% believed that Trump was more qualified. Yikes. That’s a direct refutation of Hillary’s sales pitch!

Even worse, Hillary’s number has fallen from 50% in April while Trump has rise from 27%. Basically, the more Hillary tries to sell herself, the more people think she’s an idiot.

Generally, polls are unreliable for a huge number of different reasons, and I suggest you take them with a grain of salt. The reason I find this one interesting though is that it flies directly in the face of months of sustained advertising by Hillary, the media and all of her allies. Indeed, you would have expected that, at the very least, her 43% base should agree with her claims of confidence, plus some conservatives who want to beat Trump, plus some percentage of mouth-breathers who believe what they are told by the media. That means at least a 50% number. Yet, she got 41%.

That should set off major warning bells for Hillary.

Hillary knows this too. How do I know? Because if she thought her sales pitch was working, she wouldn't be vetting some general as a VP pick. Basically, she's afraid that voters see her as weak on foreign policy and military matters... the very areas she claims to have an advantage... so she's adding muscle to the ticket.

Interestingly, this all comes from the mistake Hillary made in 2008. She thought the reason she failed against Obama was her lack of foreign policy experience, so she took the job as Obama's Secretary of State to pad her resume. It never dawned on her that her real failure was unlikability and that no one cares about foreign policy -- almost all of our recent Presidents had zero foreign policy experience before they got elected. She doesn't realize this, however. She thinks that's why she lost and now she's going to beat Trump on that basis.

Good luck. That's blindness.

I don't see Bernie Sanders' endorsement today helping her either. Sanders looked like he wanted to die as he did it and his followers immediately started twittering that he was “selling out.” Trump, rather smartly, poked this open wound on Twitter:
“Bernie Sanders, who has lost most of his leverage, has totally sold out to Crooked Hillary Clinton. He will endorse her today - fans angry!”
Then he put out a list of five reasons they won’t like Clinton. The GOP got in the action too. They put out a list of 15 attacks by Sanders on Clinton.

These are actually decent attacks, assuming the public is listening... which I’m not sure they are. I think that until after the summer ends, no one will care. But in the meantime, it sounds like Hillary has failed to make her case and she’s failed to land a punch on Trump where she thought he was vulnerable. It will be interesting to see how this goes.

BTW, Iowa is now a battleground state... Iowa. Iowa hasn’t gone Republican since 1984. That’s horrible for Hillary.


ArgentGale said...

I thought Bush won Iowa in 2004? I could be mistaken but I thought he did. Either way nothing Hillary is doing seems to help and they actually capitalized on the Sanders endorsement well. We'll see how it goes.

- Daniel

Kit said...

OT: the pro-abortion group NARAL put out a "sketch" called "Comedians getting abortions."



AndrewPrice said...

Daniel, Yeah, my bad. Somewhere between research and typing, that one went wrong. He did win Iowa in 2004... by the vote of three pigs and four cows.

Either way, Iowa should not be in play.

I thought Trump played the Sanders thing perfectly actually. I guess he can learn. ;-)

AndrewPrice said...

Kit, This is an issue where the "activists" on both sides have totally lost touch with reality. They are so far in a bubble that they no longer can judge whether something will offend the rest of the public or not.

Ultimately though, none of it matter. The public is happy with the issue ground to a halt where it is.

AndrewPrice said...

BTW, for what it's worth, new polling shows Trump ahead by a smidge in Florida and Pennsylvania, and the race tied in Ohio. Pennsylvania should not be in play.

Anthony said...

Bernie dropping out and tepidly endorsing Hillary is good for Hillary because his staying in would have completely killed her chances.

The same way most Republicans fell into line behind Trump when he became the last person standing, most Democrats will fall into line behind Hillary.

That being said the Loretta Lynch meeting made the email scandal bigger than ever its not going to shrink let alone go away between now and November so Hillary's prospects are pretty dim.

She is more reliant on Trump to be stupid now than ever before. I still think her odds of winning are better than even.

Anthony said...

OT, but Tim Scott has dimmed his future in the Republican party by deviating from orthodoxy on an issue related to his race (aka Rubioing oneself) :) .

Republican South Carolina Senator Tim Scott delivered a speech on the Senate floor Wednesday detailing several incidents in which he felt that law enforcement had unfairly targeted either him, a member of his family or a colleague. The speech was the second of three that Scott has planned for this week on the subject of law enforcement and minority communities.

tryanmax said...

Lots to respond to! Hopefully, no one minds if I break it into several comments.

Basically, the more Hillary tries to sell herself, the more people think she’s an idiot.

Hillary and her handlers know this, too. For a presidential candidate, she is remarkably avoidant of the media. It's also worth bearing in mind that Trump has no paid media as yet. Hillary is basically campaigning without competition and still losing market share. It's worse than people preferring something else, it's people being actively turned off by HER!

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, Feel free. :)

AndrewPrice said...

Anthony, I would give the race to Trump right now, but who knows. This is a strange election with no good choices.

AndrewPrice said...

On Scott, I think this is an issue that the libertarian wing of the right is willing to address, BUT not with groups like BLM out there representing the other side.

BTW, there was a video released today of the cops shooting some "poor, innocent white child in California as he lay on the ground." The video, in my opinion, pretty much kills the claim of police abuse. The guy is white trash. He's acting aggressively. He's roaming, pacing like an animal. He won't show the cops his hands and he keeps trying to act like he's reaching for a gun, even after the shoot him and he falls.

Could the police have acted differently? Probably. But when you mess with the cops, it's your own fault when you die.

tryanmax said...

A bunch of new poll numbers are in. The RCP Electoral College map just changed Wisconsin to a toss-up from "leans Clinton." At the same time, Colorado moved in the opposite direction, predicting a net loss of one EC vote for Clinton. She now sits at a projected 209, down from 211 less than a month ago and down from 227 two months ago.

In nationwide polling, the RCP gap between Clinton and Trump has narrowed yet again, with a +3.1 margin for Clinton, down from +6.8 on June 27, her most recent peak. No updates on the 3-way and
4-way numbers today, though I note again how unexpected it is that Johnson pulls more votes away
from Clinton than from Trump.

It'll be interesting to see how things move over the next week or so, with the idea that
Trump shares populist appeal with Bernie, whereas Hillary is as establishment as they come. I believe we will be witnessing a political re-alignment.

tryanmax said...

All due respect to Senator Scott, I contest the uniqueness of the black experience when dealing with cops, based mainly on my own experiences and those of people near to me.

Like Scott, I too vividly remember the first time I was pulled over at 16 for speeding. I cried and said my dad was gonna kill me. I didn't know not to use the word "kill" around a cop. The remainder is a blur, but I was treated roughly, like I was something dangerous. I realize I left an opening there for someone to say, "But black people don't have to say or do anything to get treated like that!" But can anyone truly back up that claim? Memory is selective and imperfect, and if one is preoccupied with race, that is what their recollections will center on.

As a white man, I can relate to his other experiences, as well. I too have been approached by officers with a hand already on the butt of the gun, multiple times. I too have been stopped repeatedly for trivial things (signals, stop signs) over the course of a few weeks. I too have been tailed by cops for long distances, waiting for me to slip up. I too have been pulled over for driving a car too nice for the neighborhood. Additionally, I've been breathalyzed, searched for drugs, handcuffed, and detained in the back of a squad car, all in the course of otherwise routine traffic stops. All this despite being white and having no criminal record whatsoever.

Let me add that I've been tailed in the grocery store. I've been treated as suspicious for being the only white guy in a place full of black people. I've been told to my face that I've been passed over in favor of a "diversity hire." I've been called every white racial slur in the book by people who mean to incite me. My brother has been arrested for resisting arrest. A friend's uncle (who is white) mysteriously committed suicide in police custody. These are just the things too stark to forget. If I brooded over my race daily, I'm sure I could think of more.

Scott says he doesn't know many African American men who do not have similar stories. Well, I don't know many white men who do not have similar stories. He wants to talk about frustration and irritation. Well, I am frustrated and irritated that my experiences as a white person are discounted because they don't support a narrative of discrimination against blacks. Maybe I don't know exactly what it's like to be black in America, but the more I hear about it, the less dissimilar it sounds to my own existence.

Andrew said...

Tryanmax, I'm not home and will respond later, but I've had a lot of similarly bad experiences with the cops.

BevfromNYC said...

Thanks Andrew! It is is telling that neither candidate is close to hovering at 49/50% by now. Hillary should be blasting passed Trump and, sadly he manages to blow it every single time when he could blast passed her.

Other stuff: I was surprised the first time I heard the "but we have to have 'the talk' with our Black children". Sorry, but my brothers and I got 'the talk' too. Any parent no matter what race who hasn't had 'the talk' especially with kids learning to drive, are just stupid adults.

BevfromNYC said...

I am now off to sightsee again and eat pizza...guest loving NYC pizza. Did I tell my guests are teenagers? Yeah, fun times.

tryanmax said...

Hillary vetting a general for VP is going to be, at minimum, odious to some of her base. It certainly won't attract many Berners. The Democrats have practically branded themselves into a corner as the anti-war party. Luckily, drone strikes and kinetic actions don't count as war. 😉

Critch said...

We may seriously be looking at an election the Dims lose because more people hate their candidate than the GOPs candidate...

Allena-C said...

I agree Andrew! I do disagree about one point though. Hildebeast does have a personality and it's clearly bitchy and 24/7 PMS-like barely contained rage.
Also she never laughs, she cackles. I can't bear the sound. Ugh.

Allena-C said...

I mean, I don't think it's hyperbole to say thT Hillary would bathe in virgin blood if she could, lol.

Allena-C said...

I feel for you Bev, entertaining teenagers isn't easy nowadays, lol.
I am soo glad my daughters are adults now, lol.

Allena-C said...

Although I have met some teenagers, children of friends, and they seem much more mature than I was at those ages, lol.
I was a real problem child, ha ha.

tryanmax said...

30 dead in Nice, France. Truck plows into Bastille day celebration crowd. Reported gunfire between French police and truck driver.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, It's interesting how hard Hillary tries to avoid talking to people.

AndrewPrice said...

On the police, I've had two false tickets. I had a guy follow me over 60 miles on my ass trying to get me to exceed the speed limit so he could get me. I had one cop harass me in a mall. I've been pulled over a couple times when I was young for being a white face in the wrong neighborhood. A couple more.

All my white friends have similar experiences. So I don't buy this is a black thing. I actually think it's a class thing.

AndrewPrice said...

Bev, "The talk" always angers me. Every white kid I know gets the same talk, only white parents don't assume this is about race. It's about recognizing authority and not getting killed by the tense man with the gun.

Glad you're having a good time.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, I think Hillary knows her failures and her considering a general is proof of that. It shows that she realizes that she lacks foreign policy muscle and she thinks that is the key.

How she's going to reconcile that with her peacenik base I have no idea.

AndrewPrice said...

Allena, Agreed. Hillary has a personality and it's all bad. She comes across as a real peace of work.

Kit said...

Truck drove through crowd in Nice, France. BBC World News puts death toll at 75+.

Kit said...

Parisian and French authorities are describing it as an attack.

Kit said...

BBC World News has 15 critically injured.

Françoise Hollande is set to speak soon.

State of Emergency put into effect after the Bataclan attack was set to end later this month. Now it will likely be extended.

Kit said...

Hollande spoke:
—Deaths include children
—State of Emergency to be extended for 3 months.
—10,000 soldiers have been mobilized across the country and reserves have been called up.

Kit said...

77 dead, including children
Around 20 critically injured

Critch said...

How are all those lax immigration laws, silly gun laws and disarmament of the people working for you now France?

AndrewPrice said...


All I can say right now is that ISIS will not win. And let me add this. This is a quote from a Doctor Who episode in which a woman is being hunted by monsters but keeps being saved by the Doctor. She is told, "I wish this had never happened to you." And her reply is magnificent. She rejects that wish and she says,

"One may tolerate a world of demons for the sake of an angel."

This world is full of angels. We can take the demons... they won't win, they won't discourage us, they won't make us quit.

God bless France.

Anthony said...

The latest ISIS attack in France is horrifying and worrying because it could easily happen anywhere where traffic and crowds of people are in close proximity.

Anthony said...

My prayers are with the wounded and the families of the dead.

Anthony said...

Moving on to less consequential matters, I don't think Hillary (or Trump for that matter) picking a general would change anything.

In recent elections I haven't seen any evidence VPs mean much. If the top of the ticket doesn't inspire, the bottom won't.

tryanmax said...

Anthony, I still say you're looking at the VP pick in the wrong way. They aren't meant to inspire new interest in a candidate or him/herself any more than a compass is meant to draw straight lines. They are meant to lock in interest that is already there, motivate base voters, and reduce sit-outs. In essence, the VP pick is a conversion strategy, not a lead-generating strategy.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax and Anthony, Let me toss this out there. I think you're both right. When the VP is used to lock in interest that is already there, reduce sit-outs and motivate the base, then it works. When the VP is used to comfort non-supporters or to draw in new voters, then it's a failure.

Trump is doing it right with Pence. Hillary is doing it wrong by speculating about taking on some general. What Hillary is doing is telling non-supporters that she knows her military/foreign policy experience is weak, while simultaneously turning off her base who don't like the military.

tryanmax said...

Feels like crazy town. Trump is running a 3 pt race without hardly spending a dime vs. Hillary's millions. I heard on the radio she's outspending him 40x. And yet the pundits still claim he's not a serious contender. If I had to guess, he's setting himself up to be the underdog.

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