This is anecdotal evidence, which means it has no reliability, but I think it is suggestive of a problem for Hillary Clinton. I just spent the last couple days in downtown Denver wandering around to various events. In particular, we went to an auto auction (way cool) and then we spent a part of Saturday sitting on the 16th Street pedestrian walk, drinking booze, watching people walk by. Here's what interested me: there was no evidence of Hillary supporters.
Now get this. Denver is liberal country. This is where the Hillary people come from in Colorado. If there is anywhere that will pimp for Hillary, it is this area. What's more, we were at a street festival (of sorts), which is an invitation for the very types of people who vote for the left. There were lots of young (dumb and shallow) women, lots of ethnic minorities, a handful of pimps, some homeless, and lots of hourly-wage service employees. There were even a group of people walking around trying to get a $15 minimum wage thing on the ballot. Yet... there wasn't a single Hillary button, shirt, hat or poster anywhere in sight. Her ads are all over the television in Denver, yet no one mentioned her name anywhere.
It was like there wasn't even an election.
As I said, this is anecdotal evidence and needs to be taken as only suggestive, but it sure seems to me that Hillary's support is soft to say the least. Think back to Obama v. McCain. You couldn't swing a dead cat without hitting someone in Denver bleating about their love for Obama. They wore shirts, buttons, hats and probably Obama brand underoos. They had fantasies about him which they overshared. It was like walking through a collection of cultists. "Take me, my lord, and make me pure!"
Not this time.
Meanwhile, in Colorado Springs (conservative country) even store clerks will just tell you how they're going to support Trump.
It will be interesting to see what this means.
P.S. Saw The Secret Life of Pets... not as good as I'd hoped. I'll review it this Friday.
18 comments:
Now that you mention it, I haven't seen or heard much Hillary support and I live deep in Democrat country (Obama bumper stickers comfortably outnumber Clinton bumper stickers) . Not shocking. She is corrupt, uncharismatic , has accomplished nothing and promises not to accomplish anything, but not to be a Republican.
Got in a couple heated, dicey arguments over the past week but Hillary's name never came up. People talk Trump a lot though and none what they say is good.
I doubt fear is as great a turnout motivator as hope, so I suspect Hillary's support will be below Obama's 2008 and maybe even 2012 level.
Also saw The Secret Life of Pets. Its not a classic for the ages on the level as Zootopia or Finding Dory but its fast paced, funny and entertaining throughout.
The writers don't aim high but they hit what they are aiming at and the voice actors play their parts.
Anthony, That's a good way to describe it -- they don't aim high, but they hit what they aim for. And I do like the voice actors. I like that the voices fit the parts for once rather than the parts being written to fit the actor.
On Hillary, I'm thinking her turnout is going to be atrocious. There is no enthusiasm. Even the normal standard base of "I love all Democrats" seems to be missing. And no one is out there trying to convince their friends and neighbors to support her. I do see a lot of anti-Trump stuff, but it's all half-hearted except for the "he's going to destroy us!!!" stuff from conservatives, which gets really silly to listen to (and which I don't hear outside of pundits). Indeed, outside of them, my conservative county seems rather enthusiastic for him.
Right now, I would guess he will win Colorado by a couple percent.
You know, Andrew, I haven't seen many Hillary supporters n NYC either. Most people I talk to loath both candidates. As some have said ""it's like deciding your crap sandwich on whole wheat or white?"
Do you know what else is missing, Bev? There is virtually nothing on Facebook, and what there is is exactly what you say -- "which awful choice do you want?" What's more there's as much anti-Hillary as there is anti-Trump stuff. Basically, Facebook is neutral.
That's a horrible sign for Hillary.
Here's another metric: name each candidate's campaign slogan.
And here's a goofball news item. On "Morning Joe" the panel questions whether Donald Trump is right when he calls America a "divided nation." Isn't that idea pretty much part of their stock and trade at MSNBC? Even when Obama says the US is not as divided as we think, the folks at MSNBC indulgently smile at the optimistic yet naive president. "Would that it were so!" But if Trump says it, there's suddenly room for doubt? I'm so sick of this "it can't be right if the other guy says it" mentality.
Interesting notes and what Anthony said about why Hillary doesn't have much appeal is true. This election is, for better or worse, all about Trump it seems, though at least on my end Facebook isn't quite as neutral and has a notable anti-Trump lean - he seems to have firmly established himself as the racist candidate, at least among people I know, which is motivating most of these people to either vote third party or vote Hillary. Maybe I just don't have enough good, sane, conservatives in my social media circles but sometimes it looks like this year has been one where the left's grievances are gaining ground even where they shouldn't between Orlando, Stanford, and now Baton Rouge and Minnesota.
- Daniel
Unfortunately, I think the public would prefer a crook to a racist, even if the racist is on the order of Joe Biden while the crook is on the order of Boss Tweed. Trump's best bet is to swing the racism charge back onto Hillary, which is eminently doable. Trump's political tactic is the superior one if he can align it to the right message. Hillary has no charisma, relies on promises of handouts, and deals too much in technocratic jargon. Trump is all about personality and his only campaign promise so far is to build a big beautiful wall.
That's what I thought, too, tryanmax, which is why I've considered Trump's chances of winning to be dubious at best given the way he played to the fringe early on. I do think you're right about the tactics and message as well but it always comes down to whether or not they'll actually do it. Unfortunately conservatives and the GOP have a very, very bad record of not doing the smart thing in these situations and it doesn't look like things will change any time soon. Watching politics can be so frustrating...
- Daniel
tryanmax, I think Hillary's slogan is "Vote for me and despair," but I'm not sure.
Seriously though, her campaign is awful and as a person she's horribly unlikable. I still think that's more than enough to make her lose.
tryanmax, That's the old game the left plays.
They say something... it's genius.
A Republican says the same thing... it's hateful.
Conservatives should know this rope-a-dope game, but they are blinded by their fear of Trump and they are busy adopting all the left's strategies and arguments.
That MSNBC would be so openly contradictory doesn't surprise me in the least, because leftists will buy that without even thinking about it.
On the racism, I think tryanmax is right. Trump can beat this fairly easily if he wants to. All he really needs to do is starting asking where Hillary is on issues like Black Lives Matter and she'll implode.
BTW, Hillary is running an ad here that is insane. She starts with a clip of Trump saying he knows foreign policy because he watches news shows.
So right away... (1) this is an issue no one cares about, (2) Trump's answer isn't actually that bad to general voters, and (3) it feels like an edited clip used for political exploitation. Ergo, the Trump attack is ineffective.
THEN Hillary (1) talks about being the Secretary of State when she reduced nuclear weapons (average voter doesn't care about this and doesn't understand it), (2) how she brokered a peace in the Middle East (which no one believes happened... and it was Kerry), (3) how she stood up to Putin (using an ironic clip in which she sits near him and they smile at each other), and (4) how she fought human trafficking.
That last one got my wife to say, "Nobody stopped that! That goes on every day. Who does she think she's kidding?"
That's a lot of failure to jam into one ad.
Daniel, There's no way to tell how things will play out. Keep these things in mind.
1. Hillary is just awful.
2. The polls show a competitive race, something that massively favors Trump. And many of the states that are being called battleground states should be reliably blue.
3. It looks like the right's plan to run a third party candidate has failed.
4. Trump is facing the same attacks the left always makes on conservatives. There is nothing new in any of this, except that much less of it than normal is sticking.
5. Trump has shown a lot of flexibility in changing his message.
For better or worse, I think these things favor Trump.
Speaking of third party, I wish I could find it again. I saw a poll that very clearly showed that Johnson is drawing equally from both candidates. That is, when Johnson factored in, he has about 8%, but when he's taken out, Trump and Hillary both gain 4%. That's an estimation, of course.
I was able to browse around Real Clear Politics and they show a slightly different picture. There, it looks like Johnson draws more from Hillary. The race gets tighter with Johnson in it, not more comfortable for Hill.
Interestingly though, it looks like the Green Party candidate (Stein) draws mainly from Trump supporters. Her presence helps Hillary.
If nothing else, this confirms that the political divisions are not where the pundits say they are.
You are right about turning that charge back on Hillary, Andrew. The question that always bothers me in these matters is does he actually want to, or perhaps more importantly does he even know that he can? That seems to be the big thing in conservative failure to counter the left, not realizing that there's good ways to fight back. As for the general election, we'll see. I still don't rate Trump's odds as good, but Hillary seems to be working almost as hard to ruin her own chances. It really is a Giant Douche vs. Turd Sandwich election, huh?
- Daniel
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