I hope you're all getting ready for Christmas? Better hurry, my friends. Anyways, here are more observations from recent events.
● There was an interesting twisting of reality which may soon change the way lawyers/big business work. On ESPN, some of the talking heads were discussing the allegations against the owner of the Panthers. For those who have not heard, Jerry Richardson, the owner of the Carolina Panthers, harassed three women and made some racist comment to a black employee. All three issues were settled. For some reason, the Panthers decided to dig this up again. The NFL learned about this and decided to take over the Panther's investigation. Richardson immediately announced that he was selling the team. The facts behind this remain hidden.
So anyways, quarterback Cam Newton was asked about this and he said he disagreed with Richardson selling because these are just allegations... "things people said happened." He even pointed out how allegations against him almost took him out of college football and they proved to be false. Very reasonable perspective.
Yet, the ESPN host said, "But these are beyond allegations because they've been settled." And the other three knuckleheads nodded their heads. Here's the thing, as any lawyer can tell you, there are dozens of reasons you settle something even when you are not guilty. Examples included: ending the publicity, the claim is smaller than the cost of fighting it, you know you're innocent but you worry that the jury won't believe you, the claim is a distraction and you have bigger things you are working on, etc. So what you do is settle the claim with no admission of guilt and it goes away.
But these ESPN types just made it clear that they won't let a settlement make a claim go away, and they see a settlement as an admission of guilt. Interesting. If this is how settlements of claims of harassment will be seen, then there is now far less benefit to settling. I will be curious to see how lawyers respond. Perhaps the future of settlements will require an admission by the accuser that they were wrong? Perhaps many more will fight.
● Hillary's approval is down to 36% versus 61% with a negative view. Trump's approval is at 41%. So he's actually more popular than Hillary. Interesting.
● So the tax bill will pass. I find this fascinating. This one could really disrupt a handful of liberal states. What do I mean?
I mentioned this a long time ago... but the federal income tax deduction has actually been a gift for liberal states. What it does is it allows those states to raise their own income/property taxes because the people paying them can deduct them from their federal taxes at a rate between 20% and 30%. In effect, this means that the federal government (you and I) was paying to subsidize the overtaxing practices in places like New York and California (13+%). Now these people will either pay the extra 10% or their states will need to back off. That's something a 2% tax revenue drop in California. It also means that California and New York and other high tax states will now be around 2% less competitive at attracting and keeping businesses.
It will be interesting to see how this shakes out. Already there are some billionaires who are whining that New York better lower its rates or they will leave.
Thoughts?
● There was an interesting twisting of reality which may soon change the way lawyers/big business work. On ESPN, some of the talking heads were discussing the allegations against the owner of the Panthers. For those who have not heard, Jerry Richardson, the owner of the Carolina Panthers, harassed three women and made some racist comment to a black employee. All three issues were settled. For some reason, the Panthers decided to dig this up again. The NFL learned about this and decided to take over the Panther's investigation. Richardson immediately announced that he was selling the team. The facts behind this remain hidden.
So anyways, quarterback Cam Newton was asked about this and he said he disagreed with Richardson selling because these are just allegations... "things people said happened." He even pointed out how allegations against him almost took him out of college football and they proved to be false. Very reasonable perspective.
Yet, the ESPN host said, "But these are beyond allegations because they've been settled." And the other three knuckleheads nodded their heads. Here's the thing, as any lawyer can tell you, there are dozens of reasons you settle something even when you are not guilty. Examples included: ending the publicity, the claim is smaller than the cost of fighting it, you know you're innocent but you worry that the jury won't believe you, the claim is a distraction and you have bigger things you are working on, etc. So what you do is settle the claim with no admission of guilt and it goes away.
But these ESPN types just made it clear that they won't let a settlement make a claim go away, and they see a settlement as an admission of guilt. Interesting. If this is how settlements of claims of harassment will be seen, then there is now far less benefit to settling. I will be curious to see how lawyers respond. Perhaps the future of settlements will require an admission by the accuser that they were wrong? Perhaps many more will fight.
● Hillary's approval is down to 36% versus 61% with a negative view. Trump's approval is at 41%. So he's actually more popular than Hillary. Interesting.
● So the tax bill will pass. I find this fascinating. This one could really disrupt a handful of liberal states. What do I mean?
I mentioned this a long time ago... but the federal income tax deduction has actually been a gift for liberal states. What it does is it allows those states to raise their own income/property taxes because the people paying them can deduct them from their federal taxes at a rate between 20% and 30%. In effect, this means that the federal government (you and I) was paying to subsidize the overtaxing practices in places like New York and California (13+%). Now these people will either pay the extra 10% or their states will need to back off. That's something a 2% tax revenue drop in California. It also means that California and New York and other high tax states will now be around 2% less competitive at attracting and keeping businesses.
It will be interesting to see how this shakes out. Already there are some billionaires who are whining that New York better lower its rates or they will leave.
Thoughts?
24 comments:
California and NY may see an exodus of factories and other businesses...and soon. of course this explains why Chuckie Schumer has been whining more than usual at high volume all week...
As an observation, Jerry Richardson was my late Uncle's roommate in prep school.they were both hellraisers nonpareil. As an insurance guy, I could not agree more about settlements vs. guilt. It is a financial transaction where settlement figure is less than cost to litigate. Hillaryhas really really hurt herself this year with her whining blame game. Plus, it is looking more than ever like the FBI went in the tank (along with Lynch) to influence the classified e-mail scandal. As far as the state income tax, this has been terrific. Maybe a little tough on GOP reps from these states. All in all, a good bill, if not perfect
Critch, That's why they were so insane about this -- they knew that they were getting a massive subsidy from red states to cover their spending. Now it will vanish and they will need to pay for their own wishes.
Jed, Hillary really hasn't stopped whining since the middle of her campaign, has she? Not an attractive look.
I agree on the income tax - terrific! The GOP reps from those states actually voted against it.
On settlements, the cases with real guilt were the hardest to settle as a lawyer because everyone wanted to prove themselves right. It was when everyone knew it didn't happen that people were happy to settle fast.
The tax deduction thing is interesting. I think this will help Republicans in 2018 and beyond.
Your point about settlements makes sense to me. Such settlements are probably going to end the careers of a lot of politicians in the near future.
It's wild that a coin toss might determine who controls Virginia's House of Delegates.
The Memphis City Council has just voted to remove the statues of General Nathan Bedford Forrest and President of the Confederacy Jefferson Davis from the parks where they have been for over a 100 years..I'm just sure this will make a Memphis a much safer city, after all, it's all those white Southerners doing all the killing. Good Lord in Heaven, the stupidity of the people running Memphis is unfathomable..They have already moved large trucks and cranes in move the statues under cover of darkness..morons..
Critch - I thought we were passed the "Take Down The Statue of..." issue. Sad that we haven't though. Interesting that none of it made to the overeager press hasn't picked up on it.
And now about taxes. Yeah, well all I can say...teeheehee for NY. This has CA and NY and any other high tax state in quite the quandry. They scream how little they get from the Feds unlike those hickey non-state/local income tax states. What they forget is that states like NY get to keep all that tax money through Fed deductions (or kickbacks) so the that portion that we get to "keep" off-sets what we would get from the Feds. OH, and here's the fun part. If I get a "refund" from the Feds, I have to declare it as "income" to taxed the next year for state/local "income". So basically, what the Fed gov't lets me keepeth, the State/Local gov'ts find a way to taketh away.
NY in particular has the highest state/local/"any other tax they can come up with" in the country. Yep, we are NO. 1 (or 50th depending on the way you look at it).
The good news though is that NYC finally decided just last week to stop taxing small businesses on the rent they pay. Yeah, apparently "rent" isn't an expense in NYC it's an asset to be taxes. Probably because all of the empty store fronts that are already hard to fill 'cause the rent is so high then the business owners had to pay a tax on that. Like PAYING $10K a month to the landlord and then the city taxes the rent you pay...does that make any sense? Well, it did in NYC for decades.
I am worrying that Tennessee will become a lib target. Tennessee has 0% state income tax and could be a preferred location for Dems fleeing Californi and New York, all the while making Tennessee more like those states. Nashville, long time home of country music, is seeing extreme growth and an influx of liberals (who understand the value of controlling all entertainment). Though not a perfect example, seeing young Americana entertainers such as Jason Isbell showing up at anti -Moore rallies is perhaps a preview of things to come.
Bev, I had no idea they taxed rent. Bizarre. Well, New York and a few others are in for some difficulty coming up when the "feel" of their tax burden suddenly jumps 20% to 30%.
Jed, Places like Colorado have been the target of Californians. They come here and immediately demand changed to make it just like the paradise they just fled. I would recommend that your governor play up the "squeal like a pig" thing to keep the New Yorkers out.
Critch, I think this will go on forever as a way to keep the issue alive. They must be thinking, "Thank non-dominational-god-thing that we only need to chase down statues and we aren't stuck trying to prove Confederates are still alive like those Nazi-War-Crimes trials! They're going to be out of business soon. We can go on forever!"
Anthony, Ironically, I don't think it will help. The benefits are too low, occur too rarely, and are easily attributed to other things.
On the settlements I figured it was just a matter of time before they got turned into smears against anyone the witch hunters don't like. Of course the reasons people settle that you mentioned are common knowledge that can be gained from even a menial retail job but we're living in a crazy time. It definitely sucks to be a high tax state after this but they've made their beds (and taxes on top of rent is ridiculous, Bev). Also, Jed, I worry about the same thing happening down here in Georgia. Atlanta is getting so big it's not unlikely that it, combined with Athens, Augusta, Columbus, and Savannah will all out vote the rest of us and turn Georgia blue. It doesn't seem to be happening yet but the possibility is there.
Having watched Texas take on more Californians (my brother calls them "foreigners"), one thing to keep in mind. No one leaves a place they love if they are thriving and don't have too. Yeah, there a big to-do to "Turn Texas Blue", so far it has failed miserably 'cause Texas know their state is thriving under Red/Purple...too much Blue kills growth and prosperity.
Yeah, the taxing rent thing even surprised me! Well, and that I got to deduct whole $20 (total) from my local income for the rent I pay. It was grand! I thinking it was an election year give-a-way to us poor saps. But I must say, that extra $20 bucks sure...did absolutely nothing. Butter is still $8 @ pound...probably 'cause the stores had to pay taxes on their rent!
Daniel, Check out these quotes from a half-assed lawyer who runs a football site. He should know better:
"Richardson was implicitly admitting guilt (by settling)."
"The allegations that sparked the settlement talks had enough merit to get Richardson to conclude not to hunker down and fight but to buy peace and, in turn, silence."
Basically, if you settle, then you're guilty. So at this point, I would tell me corporate clients either (1) don't settle or (2) demand a statement clearing you from the accuser as part of any settlement. Otherwise, you face the settlement being used as an admission of guilt later.
As for Atlanta, it sounds like you have the same problem we have. Denver is slightly bigger than the rest of the state combined and they are the political opposite of everything else in the state.
Bev, That's the thing about a lot of these reforms. The tangible aspects are only a handful of dollars for each person. That doesn't change minds. The real effects are at the macro level, but people don't feel those.
Andrew, we're not there yet, thankfully. Georgia goes red in Presidential elections and votes in Republican senators by decent margins. There doesn't appear to be any strong trends left happening down here now or in the near future but the possibility is there and worrying. How far do you think the Californication (and New Yorkification) of various red states are going to go and do you think it'll affect things nationally?
Daniel, It already has. At one point, Washington and Oregon were legitimate candidates to vote Republican. They are now solidly blue... and crazy. Nevada used to be solid red and is now purple. Colorado was once libertarian red and is now mild-blue. These are all because of the influx of Californians.
Keep in mind that Colorado, for example, has doubled in population in 20 years and it's mainly with Californians who fled the mess they created and came out here determined to do it all over again and somehow cause a different result.
I’ve just got one more gift to buy and a big grocery run I’m set for Christmas. Baking is part of the fun, so I don’t count that against getting ready. Oh yeah, and a bunch of cleaning to do. Yuk!
Unsettling: The public has long seen settlements as an admission of guilt when one or both of the parties is high-profile. Admittedly, this is fueled by the celebrity tabloid press, but the basic fact remains that settlements are widely regarded as “sweeping it under the rug” or “making it go away.” Settlements have taken a place in the public mind alongside the pleading the fifth in the category of “If you didn’t do anything wrong, you’ve got nothing to fear.” If the chuckleheads on ESPN have anything to do with changing how claims are fought and settlements reached, then they’re the final straw on an already overloaded camel.
Popularity Contest: That is Hillaryous!
Render unto Trump: I’ve encountered complaints that eliminating the local tax deduction is anti-federalist; this from a bunch of people who would never ordinarily argue in favor of federalism. Excuse me while I play my tiny violin. I call this one “Sonata for Unfunded Federal Mandates.”
Whether tax breaks translate into anything positive for Republicans in 2018 and beyond is really down to messaging. That said, it’s pretty clear that healthcare will be the dominant issue, yet again.
Assuming Democrats trot out their biannual parade of victims who were “hurt” by the GOP, the Promoter-in-Chief can easily prepare.
That's what I was afraid of, Andrew. It sounds like we're all going to be deeply screwed eventually and I'm at a loss as to what to do about it.
I think I am going to use "Hillaryous" alot in the New Year! I am placing a bet that a Clinton will run for something in NY next year. Though the Clintons have lost their political sparkle (Translation: $$$$$$$$) in the last few months. Their political pot of gold is turning into pyrite (aka "fool's gold") these days.
Bev, if you put "Hillayrous" on a T-shirt, you owe me royalties. 😉
After losing what should have been a pretty winnable election, it would make sense for Hillary Clinton to sit down with her team and assess what happened and why they lost. It would be useful information for anybody that wants to challenge Trump in 2020. However, that kind of self-reflection would be grounds for accepting responsibility for something and Hillary Clinton does not do that.
Instead, Hillary chose to blame James Comey. In revealing what is either a stunning lack of self-awareness or just her innate penchant for blaming others for her troubles, she decided to attempt to make the case to donors the reason she lost states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio was due to letters sent by FBI Director James Comey to members of Congress about her emails.
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