Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Don't Panic

Yes, yes, yes, there are legal challenges coming... but it's over. Trump lost. Let's process that and get on with our lives. Let's talk pros and cons, and let me assure you this is not the end of America or even conservatism.


1. We kept the Senate and gained in the House. This looks like America is still doing what it always does, which is splitting the baby and weakening the leaders it does not trust. So we should retake the house in 2022. That's where the power actually lies if you have the Senate.

2. We made gains with Hispanics and Blacks and Muslims and Asians. If we can learn from that, we can destroy the Democratic coalition -- it only takes a couple % points for the whole house of cards to collapse. This election was lost by Trump pissing off suburban moms, and I doubt that repeats.

3. There is no wave for the left. In fact, the articles I've seen are lamenting how the Democrats couldn't get a wave even against Trump and how Biden is the weakest President to take office in 32 years with no mandate whatsoever. Biden really is as illegitimate taking office as Bush Jr. was.

4. I think the GOP has changed. It's become more aggressive. That's something we've needed. We just need a leader who isn't the world's biggest asshole. Let me tell you, while I like a lot of what he did, I despised the man. In fact, I despised him all the way back when the liberals loved him. Hopefully, the GOP will learn to fight finally.

5. The Dems are in for a massive civil war. Biden is the last hurrah of their older voters. Pelosi is too. The younger ones are super angry and want to start nominating angry women. That will hurt them with voters and it sets them on a course to become a much smaller party.

6. The GOP has started to run a lot more women and blacks, and that will make a huge difference in the future with fence sitters. It's entirely possible that this may lead to us becoming the majority party again.

7. Biden is a fool and a joke and will soon become an embarrassment to the left.


1. A loss is a loss.

2. Colorado looks permanently lost. Georgia seems to be tipping purple.

I've lived through lots of Presidents by now and, honestly, I don't think there's all that much to worry about. Biden had no agenda, has no mandate, and has no ability to pass anything through the Senate. The economy is crap, the virus is a mess, and Biden will get to take the blame for that. The stock market has nowhere to go but down (it's super frothy). Foreign policy doesn't seem to change between Presidents anymore, so nothing happens there. Moreover, Biden and Harris, no matter what you hear, are corporate properties... they aren't radicals. They will take no risks and what they do will be along the line of Bush Jr. and Obama, giveaways to corporate buddies. There will be no reparations or new "civil rights" crap. There will be no more socialism than usual. There will be no environmentalist lurch, no peace movement, no equal pay amendment. None of it.

And ultimiately, this is the best part: they will infuriate the left because this will be four wasted years for them... and that's good for us.



AndrewPrice said...

I'm seeing an interesting trend. As the day continued, more and more deeply-depressed articles came out on the left. Biden has no mandate. Pelosi made a "dumpster fire" out of the election (direct quote). The evil Republicans retain all the power!

They are acting like they got destroyed. This is really interesting.

AndrewPrice said...

I can't find the one article I was reading earlier, but it was like reading a eulogy. Everything went wrong, Biden is doomed, the left was repudiated by the public, that evil Mitch McConnell will keep destroying us. Boo hoo.

Other articles... Blue wave fails to appear... Biden doesn't help down ticket... Pelosi must explain failure... Biden agenda blocked... Supreme Court lost for a generation... Overwhelming money doesn't help Democrats.

"Democrats’ losses in the House on Tuesday night were accompanied by disappointing results in the Senate, which they had hoped to win on the strength of voters’ antipathy to President Trump. Although Joe Biden won a bare majority of the popular vote nationwide, he didn’t help down-ballot candidates to anywhere near the degree Democrats had hoped."

"This time around, Democrats failed to flip a single Republican seat, a potentially ominous development that party leaders will doubtlessly want to study and address."

"the Politico reporter known for his granular knowledge of Capitol Hill. Sherman called Tuesday’s results an 'abject disaster' for Democrats in Congress."

Ha ha.

tryanmax said...

Edison exit poll says that Trump gained with white women, but lost ground with white men. It’s worth considering. It would be a mistake to take a softer message with white woken who don’t actually want to hear it.

I personally and firmly believe the way to gain with white suburban women is to focus on minority issues, especially those affecting black men. I could get into the weeds about why, but the long and short of it is that appealing to women directly reads as controlling, and women are more turned off by controlling behavior than men.

AndrewPrice said...

tryanmax, Agreed. The way to appeal to white suburban women is to focus on minority issues. I see their attitude at a mix of paternalism mixed with guilt.

You also need to learn to advertise and manage your image, which Republicans still don't get. Out out touchy-feely ads to women all the time online touting the good deeds you've done and then you become immune to the attacks.

At the same time, to win over men, get a reputation as a "regular guy." Be seen at football and basketball games. hold monthly townhall meetings in bars. Wear union ball caps. Those things again will win most white working men. Use twitter to talk about sports.

AndrewPrice said...

Read this. It's fascinating. The guy is on the left and he's utterly despondent.


tryanmax said...

As weird as it was, I think Joe's constant "I'm Jill Biden's husband" line is a good, if inadequate, template on how to appeal to women. It signals (quite loudly) that Joe does not dominate his marriage.

In Joe's case, it's a double-signal. I read it as a dog whistle to say he won't be running things if elected, either. But his base is cool with that. Whatever their shortcomings, independents believe in the system, and taking that message overt would lose them for sure.

The media landscape is still in the process of fracturing. At the same time, attention spans are lengthening where people can pursue the content they want. The biggest challenge in the TV age was presenting a consistent image that appealed broadly and could be conveyed in 8 seconds. In the digital age, you can develop a rounded image without the time constraints. (consistent is 1 dimensional, rounded is 3 dimensional) You get the opportunity to go deep on what women want and on what men want without looking schizophrenic.

The biggest issue in the media is whether we allow the media landscape to continue fracturing, as it should, or try to replicate the network model on the internet. Thankfully, I don't think most Americans (or the world) will tolerate reproducing networks online.

Also, media savvy will only continue to grow as children spend more and more of their early lives with screens. Look at the epic failure that Fox News experimented with. They tried to shepherd their audience over to the left and utterly beclowned themselves. It's basically Tucker Carlson's network to save or break, at this point.

tryanmax said...

Heh, when Faris says "a functioning country with responsive institutions" he means "a political machine that rolls over minority views without a care."

Did you happen to catch Van Jones whining that Dems didn't win the moral victory? Apparently, American is safer than ever for racists, now.

In the off chance that Biden even finishes his first term, I'm calling early that he doesn't win reelection.

tryanmax said...

Sorry, I'm having thoughts today. I know many are depressed, but Trump changed the national discourse in some very important ways. He injected several mind-viruses into DC and the polity, the full effects of which are yet to be realized. Everyone steals and copies his slogans. You can’t reverse that stuff by EO. From now on, we Make Everything Great Again. From now on we Drain Swamps wherever we find them. From now on, we do things Bigly.

Everyone wants to “drain the swamp” now. Both sides say it. It doesn’t matter that they don’t agree on what the swampy parts are, it’s gonna happen now because the will is there. Of course the swamp will resist and it won’t drain evenly. But as long as both parties agree on the slogan, the hunt is on for swamp creatures. I will take “drain the swamp” over “vote the bums out” any day, as the latter just translates to auto-foot-shooting.

You ever been to a show where the opening act was better than the headliner? That’s the arena Biden/Harris has to play. Does anyone think Biden/Harris can live up to that?

Tennessee Jed said...

Did we keep the senate?

Tennessee Jed said...

Trump was never my first choice, but he did teach the G.O.P. About not curling up in a ball like Romney and McCain. In fact, I believe, had any other Republican been the 2016 nominee, Hillary Rodham Turdtin would be celebrating her landslide victory over Senator Bumfuck from Nebraska ready to getting rid of the last vestigages of a free market insurance industry. I thank Trump for three good SCOTUS picks. If, we actually do hold onto the senate, it will not be a bad four years as long as R’s confine to develop female and minority candidates such as the Ky. aG.

As an aside, it matters little practically, but I believe the reason the election went the way it did was mail in ballots. I don’t mean dead people or machines that change votes. I am talking about operatives gaining control of ballots by purchase, intimidation, or simplify handing out airline bottles of wine to alcoholics

AndrewPrice said...

Jed, I do not know about the Senate. After a change in Michigan, last I heard is that it will come down to a runoff in Georgia.

I agree about Trump. Not my choice, but he showed the GOP the value of fighting and the value of a 24/7 media program. What we need now is someone who can do that without making a total ass of himself.

I also think that anyone who thinks that Trump brought out the anger in the left and some other candidate wouldn't is fooling themselves. The left was just as vicious to Bush and they'll be just as vicious to any Republican.

ArgentGale said...

Still processing your thoughts as well as those of others, Andrew. I agree with Jed about mail-in ballot and Larry Correia has been following the red flags nicely on his blog - language warning for those not familiar with him and how he does things - and he has been quick to discard info as it's been debunked. Still, in the end I suspect you're right. You did notice that Trump's suburban support, especially among women, had been declining since 2018 and it really seemed like the choice between Trump and Biden was Statler vs. Waldorf Celebrity Deathmatch Edition for the vast majority of people.

It is curious that the GOP did surprisingly well in the house despite all of this but the Senate is worrisome now. Both of our Senate elections down here are going to runoff for the record. The special election was inevitable because of the sheer volume of candidates up for it and the fact that both the GOP and Dems had two candidates each in there despite each party having one they favored (Loeffler GOP, Warnock Dems) but the main race getting this close is worrisome for a variety of reasons. We'll see who's more motivated when the runoffs hit and if we have any more convenient software glitches and broken water pipes in Atlanta I suppose. Would it really hurt the Dems so much to learn the old proverb about avoiding the appearance of impropriety, especially if there really is nothing suspicious going on?

The gains with Hispanics, blacks, Muslims, and Asians were definite pluses and I hope the GOP is able to make note of how it happened and keep going from there. The non-white and female GOP candidates were a plus, too, and I've even seen some people note that the GOP was the party that had a Year of the Woman rather than the Dems. That said, I can't help but shake the feeling that the GOP is going to backslide on those gains, types of candidates, and willingness to fight. About the only thing that sticks in my mind as to why they might keep up the fighting spirit is thinking back to the Kavanaugh hearings and how they served as a rude awakening for the GOP Senators, especially Lindsey Graham. Hearing him of all people show that kind of righteous indignation wasn't something I ever expected to see!

I also suspect you're right about how this may end up being a Pyrrhic victory for the Dems and especially their old machine systems and that goes all the way back to the 2016 primaries with how they blatantly screwed Bernie in favor of Hillary. Then they did it even more blatantly this time with Biden falling flat on his face in IA and NH, leading to a potential race between Buttigieg and Bernie until Buttigieg suddenly dropped out with no real reason to, Biden got the establishment behind him, and Bernie got shut out once again. I still remember how angry AOC was when she introduced Bernie at the convention and I don't think she and the Squad are going to be willing to play nice with Pelosi, who also has other Dems yelling at her about how talking about defunding the police and socialism almost cost them their elections. I'd wish her luck in herding all those feral cats but that'd be counterproductive. Also, Andrew, here's another depressed leftist for the collection.

Overall, I hope you're right, and I suspect the next few weeks are going to make 2000 seem like a Victorian tea party no matter what.

Tennessee Jed said...

Got kicked out of blogger again

Tennessee Jed said...

I agree Dems would treat every R badly, but I had a gut feeling moderates were fueled to come out more by Trump hate than any energy towards Joe. I think if the senate is lost, your biggest pro goes away. Not much left to feel good about

Rustbelt said...

Grim Reaper strikes again.

R.I.P. Alex Trebek, 1940 - 2020

Anonymous said...

Andrew; The weak link in your argument is #4. Hopefully,the GOP will learn to fight finally. That's not going to happen. The fighting, the spirit, that was all because of Donald Trump. What other republican that you can remember would have dug in his heels and fought for Brett Kavanaugh the way Trump did? If any other republican had been president would Lindsey Graham have fought for Kavanaugh and Barrett the way he did? By setting the example of sarcastic belligerence and by publicly humiliating weak republicans Don kept them in line. Reagan was a great man for his time but with his rule "1 "Never speak ill of another republican, ever." He would be out of his time today. What people tend to forget is that before Donald beat Hillary he beat the republican party. Donald Trump defeated the biggest field in the history of the republican primary system. In so doing he got more votes than any candidate in the history of the republican primaries. Since he faced the biggest field his votes should have been the lowest of any winner, with the votes being diffused among the 15 other candidates. The reason we sent him to face Hillary is that we were sick of being shined on by professional RINOs. With Trump gone, especially after one term, the republicans will fold. America was nice while it lasted. I enjoyed it.

AndrewPrice said...

Rustbelt, Makes me sad. He always seemed really nice, plus Jeopardy seemed to be the one sanctuary for intelligence on television.

AndrewPrice said...

GypsyTyger, We'll see. I'm liking what I'm seeing from the younger generation. They aren't go-along types.

Post a Comment